Market Outlook

Prices have continued to strengthen in recent weeks, ahead of the typical seasonal timeline for values to rise. Foodservice buyers are expected to remain particularly active for prime and choice-graded rib items through early to mid-December, when holiday buying typically concludes.

Market conditions are projected to remain steady to firm through October, counter to typical seasonal softening trends. Demand fundamentals and supply dynamics are expected to support a stable market environment through year-end.

Market conditions are expected to remain balanced and largely in line with seasonal trends. However, more moderate retail and foodservice demand is anticipated to limit upward momentum, supporting a stable market environment through year-end.

Prices are set to neutralize into October after recent strength, with grilling demand behind the market and retail buyers shifting attention away from tri-tips toward other beef items.

Market conditions are expected to trend steady to slightly softer heading into October as retail demand moderates with the transition into the fall season. Despite softer demand, underlying market fundamentals are expected to support stability through year-end.

Prices are expected to remain supported despite typical seasonal trends pointing to a more neutral bias, as foodservice promotional and limited-time offer activity offsets the recent pullback in retail demand.

Prices are set to stay soft on their typical seasonal path, with annual lows historically carved out in the back half of October as demand eases and supplies build, offering little near-term catalyst for a rebound.

Prices are expected to shift into a more rangebound pattern following the recent rally, as typical October seasonal softness reasserts itself and retail carcass trade-down activity from higher-value items begins to slow at current price levels.

Prices will maintain a neutral tone for the next several weeks, consistent with typical seasonal trends. Demand for rounds tends to moderate through October, which should keep inside round prices trading in a relatively narrow range in the near term.

Prices are set to find a more balanced tone, supported by steady retail demand for quality ground beef, with a steady to lower price trend similar to last year’s pattern expected to carry through year-end 2026.

Prices are poised to ease modestly on seasonal softness into October, with tight fresh lean trimming supplies providing strong underlying support and limiting the downside.

The WOG complex enters the weekend with varying supply and demand dynamics across weight categories. Retail-focused buyers continue to prioritize smaller birds (3.5 lbs. and under), where available supplies remain limited and, at times, insufficient to meet immediate needs. As a result, suppliers have maintained a firm position when product becomes available. In contrast, heavier birds (over 3.5 lbs.) remain adequately supplied, with spot market activity characterized as moderate. Overall market conditions remain balanced as participants await additional market signals and trading activity.

Within the white meat complex, domestic deboning activity continues to provide consistent demand for bone-in breasts and front halves, helping maintain stable market conditions through week’s end. Boneless breast demand remains uneven, with recent market activity reflecting varying levels of buyer interest. Combined with heavier average live weights, this has resulted in differing degrees of flexibility among suppliers. Overall trading activity remains measured, with limited movement in either direction as market participants await further developments. Tenders continue to benefit from steady foodservice and further-processing demand, supporting stable market fundamentals.

Sellers of wings display very little optimism, as seasonal demand continues to fall short of most players’ expectations.

Across the back half of the bird, market conditions remain largely unchanged as the week comes to a close. Leg quarters, legs, and thighs continue to move through established retail, foodservice, and domestic deboning channels, supported by steady demand. Drumsticks also remain on stable footing, with suppliers maintaining a disciplined market position. Thigh meat demand remains consistent; however, value-conscious purchasing patterns continue to keep buying activity focused on near-term needs rather than extending coverage. Leg meat follows a similar trend, with ongoing trade activity supporting balanced market conditions overall.

Spot trade in frozen whole turkeys remains relatively light, with buyers actively seeking available production while facing limited availability of certain size specifications. Consumer-sized breast inventories remain well balanced, supported by steady demand and efficient product movement. Institutional-sized breasts continue to experience improving demand, with ongoing purchasing activity contributing to a firmer market environment.

Trade activity for fresh and frozen tom breast meat remains steady, with limited market movement and generally uneventful conditions. Demand patterns continue to support a balanced market environment, with buyers and sellers largely maintaining established positions. Trade in tenders and thigh meat is similarly quiet, as market participants focus on near-term requirements. Overall, market fundamentals across these categories remain stable.

Prices are set to hold a weak tone through year-end, as seasonal pressure, soft foodservice demand weighed down by declining breakfast consumption, and rising production keep the market bearish. Further downside looks limited, however, as current levels should begin drawing renewed buying interest.

Prices are set to stay under soft seasonal pressure through October, with loin demand finding modest relative value support offset by adequate supplies keeping the market well stocked.

Prices will maintain a softer tone during October, respecting seasonal trends for the month. Demand from both domestic sales channels and export markets will be soft, putting more loads of product on the market to be absorbed.

Prices are set to trade steady to lower on seasonal trends, with butts offering compelling relative value and increased retail featuring expected to limit further downside.

Prices are expected to maintain a steady tone through October, consistent with typical seasonal trends for the month. While increased supplies are anticipated to enter the market, continued export interest from Asia and Mexico should provide an offsetting source of demand support.

White shrimp market remains stable overall, driven by lower inbound product price from India offsetting higher costs of product out of central America. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention. Expecting prices to rise in Q3/4 with new tariffs.

Black shrimp market remains stable overall, with some lower pricing noted on Headless shell on and smaller sizes. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention. expecting prices to rise in Q3/4 with new tariffs.

Pricing remains firm, large sizes (U10-U8) remain very tight to unavailable due to MMPA restrictions on key catch areas for these sizes.

Warm water lobster has stabilized with some lower pricing offers presenting in larger sizes. High volume sizes (5-8oz) remain stable and is showing signs of increase as supply tightens.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Canadian snow crab has leveled off in the market, expect to see upward pricing movement in December.

Prices have leveled off with the continued lack of Russian product in the market, some sizes remain scarce but product is available.

Prices remain stable at current levels, several countries are experiencing quality and consistency issues.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

Salmon market has started to increase ahead of season, salmon likely to be very expensive in Q1/2.

Salmon market has started to increase ahead of season, salmon likely to be very expensive in Q1/2.

Salmon market has started to increase ahead of season, salmon likely to be very expensive in Q1/2.

Supply remains stable out of Asia, South and Central American supply remains strained and continues to be an issue.

Market to slightly increase in coming weeks as processors experience higher labor and fuel costs.

Scallop market has leveled off at current pricing, expect market to increase in late November.

Prices continue to rise as availability remains strained globally, key sizes and cuts are being allocated across all major suppliers.

Pacific cod has leveled off at record high levels, expect pricing to continue to climb in Q4/Q1 as B season continues to be well below projection.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

MMPA is still an unknown – pricing remains high but stable.

Season is in full swing, boat pricing is down slightly from the opener but prices remain at record levels – predominant factor is fuel prices.

Milk production continues to run at record levels despite some seasonally tighter availability nearby. The reduced summer output is giving way to cooler temperatures and increased productivity, while ongoing bottling demand has created a more competitive situation for fluid supplies. US milk production in August jumped 1.7% YOY as domestic heads remained at their 33-year highs, keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, strong milk fat tests and protein demand have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market. Overall supplies remain comfortable, while firm powder markets are keeping milk values rangebound.

The domestic butter market continues to leak lower despite increased order interest at the historically weak levels nearby. Recent demand trends in the US have favored milk solids and protein (NFDM and Whey), leaving excess butterfat on the market for Class II and IV manufacturers. Record milk production has kept abundant supplies of cream coming to market and butter churns continuing to run at record levels, and demand has not quite been able to keep up. Updated cold storage levels of butter showed disappoint seasonal drawdowns the past two months as August stocks came in 10.3% higher than last year. Combined July and August drawdowns was the smallest since the 2020 COVID year, totaling 16.3 mil. lbs. vs. 69 mil. last year and 57 mil. on average. The USDA reported August butter production set another monthly record and was 6.3% higher than last year. Even with strong domestic offtake, this is keeping the market extremely well supplied into the seasonal stockpiling time of year.

The domestic block cheese market setback to its lowest levels since May 2020 before renewed order interest pushed prices back higher. Updated milk production data showed US output in August set a new monthly record and was 1.7% higher than last year, while dairy herds remain at 33-year highs. This continues to keep plenty of milk flowing into cheese vats and is forcing prices to remain competitive enough to clear record domestic cheese production this season. Finding demand remains a daunting task as domestic offtake has seen YOY declines in 4 of the past 5 months due to economic uncertainty pressuring consumer retail and foodservice trends. Even with record exports (up 9% from the prior year in August) the USDA reported cold storage levels increased counter seasonally this past month. Total cheese inventories in August came in 4.4 million pounds higher vs. a reduction of 17.8 million pounds last year. Stocks are currently 2.3% higher than 2025 levels, while American cheese stocks are 0.5% higher.

The domestic shell egg market is attempting to stabilize just above the summer lows as renewed order interest emerges. Buyers (both retail and foodservice) had adjusted tactics to just replenish inventories to cover immediate needs this summer, but now with prices again providing historical value, depleted pipelines are starting to be refilled. There are still plenty of eggs coming to market, but the market is again coming into a better balance. The forward outlook has some risk factors that should limit downside, with HPAI concerns starting back up with the fall migration season in September and October, along with the normal increase in retail and foodservice demand into the colder months of the year.

The soybean oil market remains rangebound. Increased feedstock competition from imported and domestic tallow and used cooking oil has helped keep the market contained, while lofty diesel fuel and energy prices are limiting additional weakness amid supportive biofuel mandates. The higher SBO prices earlier this month have kept feedstock imports heading to the US, which has taken some of the demand off the SBO market, along with the expectations for new crop crush to ramp up shortly. SBO continues to watch global vegoil markets as imports are needed to solve the expanded demand from biofuel.

The November canola seed futures closed slightly lower last week as drier weather in the Canadian prairies allowed the harvest pace to pick up. Quality remains a concern given the wet conditions in recent weeks, but increased physical supply is limiting upside. Nearby RBD canola oil basis levels were slightly lower for the week and following the moves in soybean oil.

The December palm oil futures are finding renewed strength this week after falling 13% from early September under the weight of heavy Malaysian stocks. The chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association said with the expected tightening global palm oil supplies due to the El Nino, they see palm oil prices potentially trading at a premium to soybean oil in 2027. The association sees Indonesian palm oil production in 2027 declining 3.7% from 2026 estimated level to 56.6 MMT, while the country’s demand for palm oil from the biodiesel industry is seen rising 18.5% to 17.4 MMT.

The broccoli market is expected to escalate as California growers contend with elevated diamondback moth (DBM) pressure, quality challenges, and declining yields from late-season fields. Recent heat has accelerated maturity, pulling production schedules forward and reducing harvest expectations for the week ahead. Markon First Crop (MFC) Broccoli is available in Salinas, California.

California

• Yields are low due to increased quality challenges, exacerbated by recent heat
• DBM pressure remains elevated across several growing regions
• Pin rot is being reported throughout portions of the Salinas and Santa Maria Valleys
• Late-season acreage is showing signs of fatigue, limiting yield potential

Mexico (crossing through South Texas)

• Supplies are readily available
• Quality is generally superior to California product
• Insect pressure is minimal
• Some lots are exhibiting discoloration, uneven sizing, and occasional hollow core
• Tightening California supplies and quality concerns could shift additional demand to Mexico and drive up markets

East Coast

• Maine harvests are expected to run through October
• Indiana production has begun, though yields are expected to be low this season
• Virginia harvests are underway

The California Valencia season is ending. The California Navel season will start on a limited basis next week. Prices for small-size fruit (113- to 138-count oranges) will ease in late October.

Valencia

• California Valencia supplies are expected to ship through late October
• Current stocks are dominated by 56- and 72-count sizes; choice-grade fruit is most plentiful
• Small-size fruit (113- to 138-count oranges) will be extremely limited for the rest of the Valencia season
• Sugar levels range from 13 to 15 Brix; high sugar levels such as this typically result in a shorter shelf-life

Navel

• Limited California Navel harvesting will begin next week; volume will ramp up over the next three to four weeks
• Stocks will be dominated by 88- and 113-count sizes; fancy grade fruit is most prevalent
• Sugar levels range from 10 to 12 Brix
• This early variety fruit requires gassing for 72+ hours
• Expect prices for small sizes to inch down as Navel yields increase

Green bean prices are elevated. Supplies are extremely limited; weather disruptions and regional transitions are reducing availability. Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Trimmed Green Beans are available.

• East Coast production remains inconsistent as Northern and Midwestern districts transition to Southern acreage
  • Rain, drought stress, and fluctuating temperatures have disrupted plant development and harvest timing
  • Delayed picking and early field finishes are limiting day-to-day availability
  • Southern acreage should gradually increase yields, but near-term conditions are tight
• West Coast supplies are limited out of California and Baja, Mexico
  • Heat has reduced yields and affected pod quality; some rust is being reported
  • Rain and additional storm risks in Baja may further interrupt harvests and transportation
• Mexican production remains below normal and is not providing meaningful relief to shortages
  • Recent hurricane impacts have reduced volume
  • Transitions to Jalisco and Los Mochis are upcoming, but immediate improvement will be limited
• Growers are reporting good quality and sufficient supplies in Guatemala as production is concentrated in the cooler highland areas
• Expect elevated prices and limited availability over the next several weeks

Iceberg supplies are expected to remain extremely limited through the remainder of the Salinas season. Lower yields continue to push prices up. Romaine and green leaf markets are active, but not as high as iceberg. MFC Green Leaf, Iceberg, and Romaine Lettuces are available in Salinas, California; Markon Best Available (MBA) is being substituted as needed due to low weights.

Salinas/Santa Maria, California

• Quality ranges from fair to good; insect pressure, internal burn, mildew, and seeder are found in many lots
• Disease pressure, including INSV and Sclerotinia, persists; percentages of impacted heads vary from lot to lot
• Decreased yields/crop loss are seen throughout the Salinas Valley

Huron, California

• This season is expected to begin mid-October

Mexico (crossing into Texas)

• Production continues year-round

New Mexico

• Las Cruces harvests are scheduled to start the week of October 12 and ramp up the following week
• Early season rains wiped out 10-15% of total plantings; romaine is expected to be the most limited lettuce this fall season (through late November)

South Carolina

• The season is expected to begin the week of October 19, further reducing pressure on California supplies

Northeastern Canada and USA

• All harvests are forecast to continue through early October
• Iceberg quality has been up and down from week to week; green leaf and romaine quality has been more consistent

Increased volumes out of Mexico are pushing markets lower. MFC and Markon Essentials (ESS) Limes are available.

Mexico

• Production has increased in the newer regions in Veracruz, Mexico
• Markets are coming down on all sizes, but smaller sizes are seeing the largest drop
• Large sizes, 110- and 150-count, will remain limited for the next several weeks
• Quality is improving, but stylar and oil spotting are intermittent
• Expect markets to inch down further into October

Colombia

• Volumes are lower than anticipated for this time of year
• El Niño weather conditions have caused insufficient rainfall leading to lower yields
• Sizing is skewing heavily toward smaller sizes, 230- and 250-count, leaving the larger sizes tight
• Despite the lower production on the large sizes, markets have softened to stay competitive with Mexico

Hawaii

• The U.S. is still waiting on approval from regulators to begin purchasing Hawaiian limes
• Quality is consistent; however, limes are showing a lighter green shade
• Markets are generally higher than Mexican product

After a period of mild temperatures, a warming trend is forecast through October 8, with daytime highs expected to reach the 80s across key California growing regions, including Salinas/Watsonville, Oxnard, and Santa Maria. The prolonged heat is expected to accelerate fruit maturity and increase quality concerns, including overripening, bruising, and misshapen fruit, which may impact pack-outs, shelf life, and overall fruit quality moving into the following week.

Supplies

• Volume will fall due to sun and heat damage
• Additional production impacts are possible over the next several weeks as plants recover from the heat

Quality

• Direct sun damage is resulting in increased culling at the field level
• Softer fruit and more bruising are anticipated over the next 7 to 10 days
• Receivers should expect more softness and berry-on-berry bruising than normal upon arrival
• Growers are aggressively sorting fruit and rapidly cooling product to maintain the highest possible quality standards
• Maintaining the cold chain will be vital for shelf life; Markon recommends ordering for quick turns

Outlook

• Supplies will be tight in the short term as growers manage heat-related quality issues and reduced field production
• Quality concerns are expected to persist over the next week, with softness and bruising being the primary challenges
• Expect elevated prices over the next two to three weeks