Market Outlook

Prices are expected to trade sideways in the coming weeks. Retail featuring for both boneless and bone-in Ribeye Steaks eased in the week ended April 10, falling below prior week and year-ago levels. Foodservice demand is expected to remain moderate to soft heading into May.

Prices will remain firm throughout April, underpinned by typical seasonal patterns. This cut continues to dominate consumer preference within the middle meats category, though further price appreciation may face resistance as consumers are unlikely to chase the market higher.

Prices are expected to find a more balanced tone heading into May, despite the typical seasonal tendency to strengthen this time of year. Cautious foodservice demand should keep upward price movement in check.

Prices are expected to hold firm through April, bucking the typical seasonal pattern. The underlying strength reflects a combination of expanded foodservice menu placement and growing retail demand as grilling season approaches.

Prices are expected to remain firm heading into May, as tight overall beef supplies coincide with more aggressive retail purchasing. Sirloin steaks should attract increased consumer interest at the meat case, particularly among shoppers seeking value amid elevated middle meat prices.

Prices are expected to hold firm moving into May, consistent with seasonal trends. Growing foodservice interest and limited supply should allow packers to maintain their asking prices in the coming weeks.

Prices are expected to remain strong into May, consistent with seasonal trends. Persistent foodservice demand should provide continued underlying support.

Prices are poised to strengthen further in the coming weeks, consistent with seasonal trends. Retail demand is expected to remain robust, even as featuring activity runs lighter than normal.

Prices are expected to remain soft in the coming weeks as moderating demand from domestic channels, will keep downward pressure on prices.

Prices are expected to hold firm through April, supported by solid retail demand for quality ground product. While consumer resistance typically emerges at these levels, that threshold looks increasingly likely to be tested as spring advances.

Prices are expected to hold firm, underpinned by strong retail demand and tightening fresh lean supplies. With grilling season approaching, demand shows no signs of easing — a dynamic that should sustain upward pressure on values.

WOGs maintain a steady rating, with retail purchasing channels taking the most enthusiastic approach in their procurement efforts. Deboning outreach, on the other hand, is less lively when compared to the recent past. The 3–3.5 lb. and 3.5–4 lb. birds remain unchanged.

Bone-in breasts and front halves are uneventful, closing the morning unchanged and termed as steady. When it comes to jumbo boneless breasts, spot offerings are at least adequate across most points of sale, with medium-sized production also surfacing with increased frequency on the spot market. This scenario prompts sellers to remain flexible on their asking prices if it means stirring up some additional business. Select-sized boneless breasts are stable at listed levels. Tenders close the morning under a full steady rating, with spot availability ranging from adequate to barely adequate, depending on the player in question.

Wings remain in an unsettled state. Here, jumbo-sized offerings find a home at supportive price points, though spot demand leaves much to be desired in the minds of most marketers. Medium and small-sized production is fully adequate against a fair demand backdrop, placing downward pressure on spot values.

The back half of the bird closes in a steady state overall. Legs, leg quarters, thighs, and drums all find a home at market-supportive price points. Some players suggest that spot availability isn’t quite as visible as it has been in the recent past. Thigh meat is a mixed bag with some players suggesting that demand patterns are continuing to outpace current supplies, while others note that a degree of buy-side price sensitivity has begun to surface. Leg meat follows a similar path as the day prior, with recent dialogue suggesting that the relatively wide price spread between leg meat and thigh meat has resulted in pockets of additional value-oriented outreach efforts.

Frozen whole turkey offerings are extremely limited, but when production does show, many buyers are hesitant to purchase at the current asking prices. In response, quotations for the frozen 12 lbs. hens and 16 lbs. toms remain unchanged. The consumer and institutional-sized breasts trade quietly at supportive values. Any offerings that are made available are quickly absorbed.

Fresh breast meat trades more regularly on the spot market, but most negotiations support a steady market. Movement of frozen production remains slow due to limited inventories. Frozen tom breast meat remains unchanged.

Prices are expected to remain steady to firm through the spring, underpinned by the onset of grilling season and a pickup in foodservice and QSR promotional activity. With cold storage supplies running lean, any surge in demand could quickly tighten the market further.

Prices are expected to hold steady through the back half of April, in line with typical seasonal patterns. A pickup in export demand should lend underlying support, while supplies remain sufficient to meet overall needs.

Prices are expected to remain supported in the coming weeks, consistent with seasonal trends. Demand is forecast to be robust across both domestic marketing channels and Asian export markets, providing firm underlying support.

Prices are expected to find support in the coming weeks, buoyed by a pickup in export interest and the onset of grilling season.

Prices are expected to find a more balanced footing in the coming weeks, following normal seasonal trends. While pork production remains questionable, demand should remain modest enough to keep the market in equilibrium

Prices continue to rise gradually as supply tightens. Pricing is expected to trend higher as MMPA-related impacts remain uncertain.

The white shrimp market remains generally stable. Lower inbound pricing from India continues to offset higher-cost product from Central America. Outlook suggests pricing should hold at current levels or trend modestly lower, with elevated fuel costs for sea freight remaining the primary constraint to further cost reduction.

The black tiger shrimp market is stable overall, with some lower pricing observed on headless shell-on product and smaller size ranges. Pricing is expected to remain steady to slightly softer, as fuel costs for ocean freight continue to limit broader declines.

Prices are firm to slightly higher as the market moves into the Lenten period. Larger sizes (U10–U8) remain very tight to unavailable due to MMPA-related restrictions impacting key harvest areas.

The market has stabilized, with some lower-priced offers emerging on larger sizes. High-volume sizes (5–8 oz) remain stable but are showing upward pressure as supply tightens.

Pricing has stabilized at historically high levels. Supplies remain tight across all sizes, and prices are expected to remain elevated in the near term.

Live lobster prices have stabilized at high levels, with tight availability across all sizes. Prices are expected to continue inching higher through Mother’s Day.

Pricing remains stable for now, supported by limited raw material availability despite ample frozen tail inventories. Prices are expected to trend higher through Mother’s Day.

The market remains extremely tight as the new season begins. Forecasts continue to support higher pricing, with product availability very limited—particularly in 5–8 oz and 4-up sizes.

Prices have leveled off amid the continued lack of Russian-origin product. Some size categories remain scarce, though product is generally available.

Prices remain stable at current levels. Several producing countries are experiencing quality and consistency challenges, influencing buying behavior.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

Pricing has leveled off and remains stable. Market indicators suggest potential downward pressure beginning in early June.

The market has stabilized at current rates, with expectations for pricing to soften in early June.

Fresh salmon pricing has leveled off, with early June expected to bring some price relief.

Asian supply remains stable, while South and Central American supply continues to be constrained and is expected to remain challenged through spring 2026.

The market remains stable, with no anticipated changes to pricing or supply outlook.

Pricing remains firm overall, though select size categories have seen softer demand. Lower quotas year-over-year suggest any near-term price relief may be temporary.

Prices continue to rise due to tight global availability. Key sizes and cuts are under allocation, with no meaningful relief expected until late Q2.

Supply has tightened as buyers substitute away from higher-priced Atlantic cod. While recovery is underway, key sizes remain limited.

The market remains stable, with no changes expected to pricing or supply conditions.

The season is fully underway, with record-high pricing currently in the market. Elevated fuel costs remain the primary driver of price increases.

Milk production remains impressive, and is still trending steady to higher across the country as we approach peak spring flush season. US milk production report showed a massive 2.9% increase in February vs. the prior year and another 15k head added to domestic dairy herds from last month. This is the largest US herd since 1993 and is keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, stronger YOY milk fat tests have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market. Overall supplies remain comfortable, while increased demand has kept them from becoming burdensome.

The butter market is starting to consolidate near its recent lows. Impressive milk output so far this year has helped keep butter churns full and running hard. This has been magnified by the stronger butterfat component within the milk, pushing even more cream onto the market. The USDA confirmed the elevated production levels this past week as updated data showed February butter output up 9.1% from the prior year and setting a new record for the month. Recent export data did show the US exported the most butter in the month of January since 1994, but forward expectations don’t appear as optimistic. Export demand will likely face further headwinds given the recent run up in US values, elevated freight costs, stronger US dollar and growing inflation risk from the US – Iran war. However, the cheaper prices earlier this year did support better domestic and global demand, keeping US inventories limited.

The cheese markets are trading back at the lower end of their recent range. Impressive milk output has helped keep cheese vats full and running hard. This was confirmed by the USDA this past week as updated production data showed February cheese output up 3.9% from the prior year and setting a new record for the month. American and Cheddar output was slightly lower at +1.9% and +2.3% respectively. Stronger dairy margins of late should continue to limit dairy cow slaughter and keep plenty of milk coming to market as we move into the spring flush season. Cold storage figures from the USDA showed that February stocks of all cheese, and American styles, have struggled in the early seasonal build period and are both the smallest for the month since 2020. Additional cost pressure on consumers should be a headwind to rallies.

The shell egg markets have pushed to fresh multi-year lows, but are starting to stabilize as increased restocking demand is observed. Overall flocks are still more than adequate as updated monthly flock data showed the US table egg laying flock as of March 1st at 315.8 million head, up 5.8 million from last month (counter seasonal) and +8.2% YOY. Seasonality would suggest softer prices into the summer months, but with prices already historically soft, further downside appears limited. Updated cage free layers for March showed little movement as flocks were only 300k head lower than the prior month and still at record highs.

Soybean oil futures are pushing back towards their contract highs set earlier this month, finding support from the energy markets and the ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East. Without an end to the war, there remains plenty of risk in the market, limiting downside nearby. Also, the finalized 2026/2027 biofuel policy is driving better vegoil demand and limiting downside. Domestic spot crude and refined soybean oil basis offers remained firm last week while South American levels are now up significantly from their recent lows.

Canola futures are chopping sideways this week as it continues to mirror the movement in the soybean / soybean oil markets. Canadian weather forecasts continue to show good moisture in the southern prairies ahead of planting. RBD canola oil basis offers remained firm through Q3.

Palm oil futures moved lower this week. Indonesia issued a decree setting a timeline to raise its palm-based biodiesel mandate to B50 starting July 1, with all biodiesel users required to switch to B50 by 2028 and allocations to be detailed later in 2026. March Malaysian palm oil stocks top forecasts at 2.267 MMT — the highest March level in seven years — despite a sharp 437,000-tonne monthly draw, inventories are still running nearly 45% above year-ago levels.

Blueberries are currently in a demand-exceeds-supply situation. This is expected to continue until California’s San Joaquin Valley season begins in late April/early May. Volume will remain low over the next two weeks.

Mexico

• High temperatures persist, some reaching 95 degrees
• Volume has increased 10% since last week
• Yields are expected to tighten over the next two weeks
• Quality is good; some early breakdown has been reported
• Expect rising prices and tight stocks

Florida/Georgia

• The season is getting a late start due to earlier weather events
  • Fields north of Orlando have reported an estimated 40–50% crop damage
  • Rainfall temporarily halted harvesting earlier in the week
  • Operations are expected to resume later this week
• Limited production will begin in Georgia next week
• Markets remain elevated; overall supplies are tight

California’s San Joaquin Valley

• Conventional harvesting is set to begin in late April/early May
• Ample volume and great quality are anticipated

Markets are rapidly escalating as Salinas and Santa Maria yields are not meeting current demand. Markon First Crop (MFC) Broccoli is available in Salinas, California and Mexico (into South Texas).

Broccoli

• The Arizona/California desert season has ended
• Production continues to ramp up in Salinas and Santa Maria; however, supplies are not yet sufficient to meet current demand
• Warmer weather over the past few weeks brought fields forward, leading to supply gaps the rest of this month
• Rain this past weekend will affect quality, further reducing volume
• Quality ranges from fair to good
  • Wet conditions may contribute to pin rot, cat’s eye, purple casts, and oxidation issues
  • Minimal insect pressure has been reported (Diamondback moth)
• Expect elevated pricing and limited availability until production is fully underway in early May

Cauliflower

• Harvesting has concluded out of the Arizona-California desert region
• Salinas and Santa Maria supplies are extremely limited, but production will increase through this month
• Size is currently small but will gradually increase as the crop ramps up
• Recent rain resulted in further issues, delaying some production crews and affecting field conditions
• Quality ranges from fair to good; wet conditions may contribute to black mold, mildew, and discoloration
• Expect higher pricing and limited until production is fully underway in early May

Prices are climbing due to tighter supplies and higher import costs. MFC and Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Brussels Sprouts are available.

• Markets continue to increase as supply tightens out of Mexico, leading to overall lower availability

• • The initial surplus out of Mexico has passed
  • Yields have been falling
• Transportation costs and border delays are impacting imported supplies
• Quality is great; good color, shape, and minimal seeder are being reported
• Growing conditions remain optimal, but overall lower volume will keep pushing prices higher
• California’s Central Coast season will begin in mid-July
• Expect pricing to continue incrementally rising through April

Although new crop production has begun in several growing regions, chile pepper prices remain elevated. The Texas and California seasons are underway, but early volume is low. MFC Chile Peppers are limited; packer label is being substituted as needed.

Mexico

• A warm, wet winter contributed to increased pest pressure, which has affected yields
• Quality ranges from fair to good
• Strong demand within Mexico is reducing available exports
• Prices will remain elevated until U.S. production ramps up

United States

• Jalapeno, Serrano, and Anaheim harvesting is increasing in Texas
• California growers are shipping multiple varieties in small quantities, but quality varies widely
• Georgia’s season will start in early May
• Expect limited stocks and elevated prices through early to mid-May when domestic operations are at full capacity

California lemon supplies are tightening, especially 165- and 200-count sizes, as the crop is favoring larger fruit (95- to 140-count stocks). The California Navel season is ending; 113- and 138-count fruit is extremely limited. Early Valencia orange supplies are also snug.

Lemons

• MFC and Essentials (ESS) Lemons are available  
• Districts One and Two (the San Joaquin Valley and Southern California) are currently in production
• 165- and 200-count sizes are limited; yields are dominated by 95- through 140-count lemons
• Quality is good; some greening and scarring have been reported
• Expect a slow yet steady price climb as demand increases over the next six to eight weeks

Oranges

• MFC and ESS Navel and Valencia Oranges are available out of California 
• Oranges are currently being shipped out of California, Arizona, Texas, Florida, and Morocco (into New Jersey)
  • The California Valencia season has begun in a limited manner; Navel supplies are expected to run until early May
  • The South Texas season will end in late April
  • Mexican Valencias (crossing into Nogales, Arizona) are expected to ship into June
  • Florida Valencia oranges are on the market
  • Moroccan Valencias continue shipping off the East Coast
• Small sizes (113- through 138-count oranges) remain extremely limited in California and South Texas
• Expect good quality and elevated markets

The Vidalia Onion season is scheduled to begin on April 13.

• This year’s Vidalia onion season will run from April 13 through early September
  • This date is set by the Georgia Agricultural Commissioner
  • Growers can’t pack any Vidalia onions until the official start date
• True Vidalia onions are grown exclusively in a 20-county region in South Georgia
• Their flavor profile is known for exceptional sweetness and mild flavor
• Vidalia crops benefit from growing in low-sulfur soil
• Excellent quality is forecast

Expect extremely limited pineapple supplies for the next several weeks.

• Heavy rainfall in tropical growing regions has disrupted fruit development and reduced import volume
• Excess moisture has resulted in internal translucency on some fruit, tightening usable supplies
• Holy Week harvest interruptions added additional short‑term pressure
• All sizes are extremely limited, but availability continues to skew smaller
• Crownless supplies are especially limited, as most production is committed to crown‑on programs
• Limited availability and elevated pricing are expected to persist through May

Prices are two‑tiered—with ample supplies on the East Coast and low volume in Mexico, increasing West Coast markets. MFC Zucchini and Yellow Squash are available.

Florida

• Squash supplies have increased drastically over the last few weeks
• Quality is very good
• Georgia growers will start harvesting in two weeks
• Expect low markets to persist for several weeks

Mexico

• Hot weather and low market conditions led some growers to abandon older fields in southern growing districts over the past 7–10 days
• These factors resulted in an approximate 50% reduction in supply levels in one week, causing prices to escalate
• Markets are expected to remain active until new crop domestic production begins
• Availability is expected to tighten into early May; the season will wind down by mid‑May

All tomato varieties are extremely tight. Round tomatoes are especially scarce this week.

Rounds

• Florida
  • South Florida supplies are limited
  • Average volume is not expected until early May
  • Growers in Central Florida are expected to start harvesting next week
• Mexico
  • Yields are extremely low, with only a few growers offering pallet quantities
  • Production should remain constrained through next week
  • Substituting Romas is advised
  • Quality is mixed

Romas

• Florida

• • Supplies are extremely tight
  • Romas are more readily available than rounds
  • Yields are forecast to increase over the next two weeks

• Mexico

• • Yields are low but increasing
  • Production levels will remain below normal for several weeks
  • Quality ranges from fair to average
  • Round prices are lower as volume is higher

Grape and Cherry

• Florida

• • Supplies remain limited but production is starting to increase
• Mexico
  • Volume is declining as the Sinaloa season winds down due to unfavorable weather and disease pressure in the fields

Summary

• Supplies remain extremely tight across all tomato varieties; rounds are the most limited
• Markets are elevated (record-level for this time of year), and buyers are using Romas to cover round demand
• Order flexibility (size/variety) and quick product rotation are recommended due to reduced shelf-life
• Near-term relief is limited: some improvement may begin in the next 10 days to 2 weeks (including grape/cherry supplies as new fields come online), but Florida growers are not expected to reach typical round volume until early May