Market Outlook

Prices are expected to trade steady to higher over the next several weeks, as demand for Choice Ribeyes typically moderates during the period between Labor Day and the year-end demand build, which generally gains momentum in late October.

Prices continue to resist typical seasonal patterns, holding steady to firm as strips’ compelling relative value compared to other premium beef cuts sustains active buyer interest and a new seasonal pricing trend appears to be taking shape.

Prices have firmed in recent weeks and are expected to remain supported in the near term. While meaningful holiday demand is not anticipated to develop for several weeks, buyers are expected to remain active enough to sustain the current price floor.

Prices are expected to maintain a weak tone, consistent with typical seasonal trends, as Labor Day passes and subdued foodservice demand limits the prospect of any meaningful price recovery.

Prices are expected to maintain a steady to weaker tone over the next several weeks, consistent with the typical seasonal decline. However, top butts continue to offer compelling relative value compared to other beef cuts, lending a degree of underlying price support.

Prices are expected to hold firm through September, consistent with typical seasonal trends for the month. While brisket demand generally softens following Labor Day, additional buying ahead of the Yom Kippur holiday on September 21 and tighter supplies should provide a degree of additional price support.

Prices are expected to take on a softer tone heading into September, as residual post-Labor Day demand fades considerably, leaving additional loads of product in need of market absorption.

Prices are expected to take on a more neutral tone as the supply-side impact of lower slaughter levels is offset by the seasonal pullback in post-summer grilling demand.

Prices are set to trade steady to firm, bucking typical September seasonality, as growing inside round demand and moderating beef production keep values underpinned.

Prices are poised to hold firm into September despite typical seasonal softness, with retail buyers trading down the carcass keeping demand strong for quality ground products like Ground Chuck.

Prices are set to ease seasonally into September, though tighter supplies relative to demand should limit the decline compared to prior years. The Administration’s plan to import lean trimmings at a 25% discount is expected to have minimal impact on fresh lean trimmings.

WOGs close out the week on a steady note. Trading activity remains relatively light heading into the weekend, with moderate demand generally well-balanced against available supplies. Movement across weight categories is orderly, and market conditions remain stable as buyers and sellers continue to operate within established market dynamics.

Trade in breasts and front halves remains somewhat uneven, though overall market conditions continue to support a steady tone. Conditions in the boneless breast market also vary among participants, with differences in availability and trading activity contributing to a mixed outlook. Combo pack demand remains balanced, while boxed product continues to find generally supportive interest. Despite these variations, the broader breast meat complex remains largely stable. Tenders enter the holiday period on a steady footing, supported by balanced supply and demand fundamentals. Trading activity remains limited, however, as many participants have largely covered their near-term needs ahead of the extended weekend.

All sizes of wings remain pressured by lackluster demand, with the most prevalent discounting noted for the small offerings.

In the back half of the bird, market conditions remain constructive, with legs, leg quarters, drums, and thighs continuing to move through available channels without difficulty. Demand from both domestic and export buyers remains healthy, helping to support overall market balance. Interest in thigh meat and leg meat is particularly strong, with buyers actively seeking coverage and contributing to a firm market tone across the complex.

Frozen whole turkeys remain difficult to source, with available production generally held in confident hands. At the same time, spot market activity is limited, as constrained supplies are met with a degree of buyer caution. In the breast meat complex, offerings of both consumer and institutional-sized products remain tight relative to demand. Despite these supply challenges, most market participants describe conditions as stable, with trading activity continuing at established market levels.

Availability of fresh tom breast meat remains somewhat inconsistent across the market, though current production continues to find a home without difficulty. Market conditions vary by participant, but overall demand remains sufficient to keep supplies moving at an orderly pace. Offerings of frozen tom breast meat have become less visible in recent weeks, reflecting tighter availability. Even so, buyer interest remains moderate, supporting generally stable market conditions. Some participants continue to note pressure within the tender market, stemming from the unusually narrow spread between fresh tenders and fresh tom breast meat. However, spot market activity remains limited. Thigh meat continues to move well through available channels, supported by steady demand and balanced market fundamentals. Demand for ground breast trim, scapula, and ground wing meat remains somewhat subdued, though overall market sentiment remains supportive. Meanwhile, fresh and frozen mechanically separated turkey (MST) continue to trade with considerable variation depending on product availability and individual market circumstances.

Prices are expected to trade steady to lower through September, consistent with typical seasonal trends for the month. Foodservice demand is anticipated to remain constrained by lower volumes, while retail demand is expected to ease in line with seasonal norms.

Prices are set to remain soft on typical September seasonal trends, with loin demand finding some relative value support but ample supplies keeping the market well supplied.

Prices are anticipated to soften in September as post-Labor Day demand fades and overall pork production increases. Weak export demand is expected to compound the downward pressure, leaving the market with limited sources of underlying support.

Prices are expected to trade steady to lower over the next several weeks, in line with typical seasonal patterns. While butts continue to offer compelling value relative to other pork items, overall demand is anticipated to remain subdued.

Prices are set to stay soft as improved production and weak demand keep supply ample, though back-to-school season and potential Mexican export demand improvement should provide some underlying support and cap further downside.

White shrimp market remains stable overall, driven by lower inbound product price from India offsetting higher costs of product out of central America. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention. Expecting prices to rise in Q3/4 with new tariffs.

Black shrimp market remains stable overall, with some lower pricing noted on Headless shell on and smaller sizes. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention. expecting prices to rise in Q3/4 with new tariffs.

Pricing remains firm, large sizes (U10-U8) remain very tight to unavailable due to MMPA restrictions on key catch areas for these sizes.

Warm water lobster has stabilized with some lower pricing offers presenting in larger sizes. High volume sizes (5-8oz) remain stable and is showing signs of increase as supply tightens.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Canadian Snow crab has started trending north from the bottom of the market in May expect a tight and expensive supply in off season. There may be some deals to be had in September if suppliers get backed up but that currently seems unlikely.

Prices have leveled off with the continued lack of Russian product in the market, some sizes remain scarce but product is available.

Prices remain stable at current levels, several countries are experiencing quality and consistency issues.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

Salmon market has leveled off and remains stable at current rates, we are not seeing the seasonally expected decline in COG’s as of yet but are actively reviewing for opportunities.

Salmon market has leveled off and remains stable at current rates, we are not seeing the seasonally expected decline in COG’s as of yet but are actively reviewing for opportunities.

Salmon market has leveled off and remains stable at current rates, we are not seeing the seasonally expected decline in COG’s as of yet but are actively reviewing for opportunities.

Supply remains stable out of Asia, South and Central American supply remains strained and continues to be an issue.

Market to slightly increase in coming weeks as processors experience higher labor and fuel costs.

Scallops remain firm with smaller sizes softening in demand in recent weeks, quotas remain in place at much lower levels than last year so anticipate any cost relief to be temporary. Quarterly scallop pricing to refresh next week, will see a slight increase in pricing.

Prices continue to rise as availability remains strained globally, key sizes and cuts are being allocated across all major suppliers.

Pacific cod season has ended and supply is about 20% of expectation – supply and pricing is expected to be very high at least until B season kicks off in August/September. We have secured enough cod to get us to the next season, expect pricing to continue to rise by as much as 20%.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

MMPA is still an unknown – pricing remains high but stable.

Season is in full swing, boat pricing is down slightly from the opener but prices remain at record levels – predominant factor is fuel prices.

Milk production continues to run at record levels despite seasonally tighter availability nearby. The shift to lower summer output and increased bottling demand from schools have created a more competitive situation for fluid supply and is limiting downside. US milk production report showed yet another large increase in July, jumping 2.2% YOY as another 33k head were added from the initial June estimate. This is the largest US herd in 33 years and is keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, strong milk fat tests and protein demand have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market. Overall supplies remain comfortable, but cream multiples have been increasing.

The domestic butter continues to trade back near the lower end of their recent range, but has noted strong demand given historic value and the seasonal bias for prices to rally into early Q4. This continues to support butter prices on breaks, while abundant butterfat has been a huge barrier to higher prices. This ebb and flow each week continues to support the choppy rangebound activity. Updated cold storage levels showed July inventories declining right on pace with the 10-year average from June, although the decline was the smallest since 2020. This puts cold storage levels only 3% lower than last year as we enter the more pronounced inventory drawdowns into Nov/Dec. Record domestic consumption and an extremely competitive export bid are working to clear the excess production coming to market from the record churn pace seen so far this year, however ongoing impressive milk output has kept butter churns full and running hard, requiring aggressive pricing to drive demand.

The domestic block cheese markets are consolidating near the lower end of their recent range after the elevated prices earlier this month shut off additional order interest. While spot milk has been tightening due to increased demand from bottlers as schools prepare for students to return, and the summer heat lowering overall cow comfort, there was still plenty available this past month for cheese producers. Updated milk production data from the USDA showed that milk output in July jumped 2.2% from prior year levels and the overall herds increased 33k head from the initial June estimates. This should continue to drive strong cheese production as churns have access to fluid milk. This puts the emphasis on export markets to clear additional supplies as domestic demand has been lower YOY in 3 of the past 4 months. The export market remains competitive, which will keep pressure on the domestic market to stay cheap enough to encourage that much needed export demand.

The domestic shell egg market is attempting to stabilize just above the summer lows as renewed order interest emerges. After the run-up in prices during July, buyers (both retail and foodservice) adjusted tactics to just replenish inventories to cover immediate needs, but now with prices again providing historical value, depleted pipelines are starting to be refilled. There are still plenty of eggs coming to market, but the market is again coming into a better balance. The forward outlook has some risk factors that should limit downside, with HPAI concerns starting back up with the fall migration season in September and October, along with the normal increase in retail and foodservice demand into the colder months of the year.

The soybean oil market found renewed buying interest this past week after the EPA confirmed that the larger than expected Small Refiner Exemptions (SRE’s) will be reallocated to the 2026 and 2027 mandate years and will not effectively limit the nearby demand from biofuel on soybean oil supply. Ongoing firm diesel fuel prices and the longer term supportive biofuel mandates will keep some order interest beneath the market from end users, along with the limited vegetable oil flows out of the Black Sea. SBO continues to watch global vegetable oil markets as imports are needed to solve the expanded demand from biofuel.

The November canola seed futures are higher this week as the market continues to mimic the movement in the soybean complex. With the ongoing issues in the Black Sea, Canadian canola is expected to be in high demand domestically and from their traditional export markets such as China, Japan and Mexico. RBD canola oil basis levels remained mostly steady last week with end user coverage extended out through Q4.

The spot palm oil futures are consolidating just shy of the recent highs and the highest levels since 2024. Indonesian palm oil association GAPKI said end June palm oil stocks in the country were at 2.84 MMT, down modestly from 3.04 MMT in May but were moderately above year ago June stocks of 2.53 MMT while still being the 2nd lowest of the last 9 years for the month. Ongoing concerns from El Nino production losses into 2027 have kept forward prices estimates firm.

Asparagus markets continue to strengthen as harvesting transitions and sizing challenges reduce supplies from both Mexico and Peru. Availability is expected to remain limited, particularly for larger sizes, while elevated market conditions persist into September.

Mexico

• Markon First Crop (MFC) Asparagus is available; packer label is being substituted as needed
• The Central Mexico season has roughly one week of production remaining before Baja becomes the primary growing region through year-end; poor weather conditions in Central Mexico reduced yields and created a variety of production and quality challenges
• Baja fields have started earlier than expected, which could provide some near-term relief; however, the accelerated start could limit future supplies in the fall and winter seasons
• Jumbo and extra-large sizes remain in very short supply and are expected to stay limited as fall demand increases
• Quality is fair to good; heat-related seeding, wet/decayed tips, and limp/rubbery spears have been reported
• Expect increased pricing and restricted availability to continue, particularly for jumbo and extra-large sizes, into September

Peru (into South Florida)

• Peruvian supplies continue to face quality challenges following warmer-than-normal growing conditions in northern districts
• Southern Peru fields are opening earlier than anticipated
  • They will serve as the primary production region into late November
  • Domestic demand will rely heavily on supplies from Southern Peru during the fall season
• Warm El Niño weather patterns reduced Peruvian yields and impacted overall quality
  • Early decay, seeding, and dehydration have been reported
  • Production continues to skew heavily toward small and standard sizes
• Expect elevated markets into September as Southern Peru production continues to ramp up

The broccoli market is expected to strengthen as growers anticipate lighter yields next week. MFC Broccoli is available in Salinas, California; Markon Best Available (MBA) is being substituted as needed.

• Demand remains steady, though yields are expected to decline heading into next week
• California production is meeting current demand levels with good overall availability
• Diamondback moth (DBM) pressure remains elevated in some growing areas
• Pin rot incidence is increasing across portions of the Salinas Valley
• Recent moisture and unsettled weather conditions may exacerbate existing quality concerns
• Mexican broccoli crossing through South Texas remains readily available
• Quality concerns include:
  • Severe browning
  • Cat eye
  • Hollow core
• Maine and New York are in full production, supplying East Coast Markets
• Growers are reporting good sizing, color, and shape
• Insect pressure is minimal
• Ohio remains in production and is expected to continue harvesting through next month

Blueberry prices are expected to remain elevated over the next two to four weeks due to declining production in the Pacific Northwest, light early-season volume from Mexico, and limited arrivals from Peru. As the import season begins, demand is expected to exceed available supply throughout September.

Pacific Northwest

• Oregon harvest is nearing completion, with most shippers expected to finish next week
• Washington production is expected to continue for approximately three more weeks
• Quality is generally good, with occasional soft fruit and shrivel being reported
• Markets are expected to strengthen as regional supplies continue to decline

Mexico

• New crop production has started with light harvest volumes
• Supplies are expected to increase over the next three to four weeks
• Quality has been reported as good
• Markets are expected to remain elevated as demand exceeds available supply

Peru

• Import shipments have started arriving, but volume remains limited early in the season
• Quality has been reported as good
• Market activity is expected to be aggressive throughout September as demand outpaces initial arrivals

Cilantro supplies are sufficient to meet current demand; however, markets are trending higher as weather-related quality challenges impact growing regions in California and Central Mexico.

• Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Cilantro is available; packer label is being substituted when necessary
• Supplies remain adequate to support demand in both Salinas and Oxnard, California
• Quality ranges from fair to good
  • Elevated temperatures and humidity in California are contributing to increased insect and disease pressure, along with bolting and seeder development
  • Seasonal rainfall in Central Mexico is causing yellowing, early decay, and reduced shelf-life on imported product
• Mexican imports remain available, though quality has declined due to ongoing monsoonal conditions
• Salinas production is expected to continue into the early fall; desert region harvests will gradually increase over the coming months
• Expect slightly higher markets with intermittent quality issues into the first week of September

Green onion prices continue to strengthen as extreme temperatures impact production in the Mexicali growing region. Elevated markets are expected to continue into early September as heat-related production challenges limit supply. RSS Green Onions are available; packer label is being substituted as needed.

• Temperatures across the Mexicali growing region exceeded 110°F throughout this week
• Extreme heat is accelerating crop maturity, forcing growers to harvest fields earlier than planned
• Younger plantings are also experiencing heat-related stress, which is expected to reduce yields in the coming weeks
• Quality is generally good, though the potential for heat-related defects is growing
• Potential heat-related defects include:
  • Dehydration
  • Discoloration
  • Early decay
  • Tip burn
• Supplies are currently adequate to meet demand but are expected to tighten as production challenges persist
• Expect strong markets and higher pricing into early September

Blueberry supplies are expected to tighten over the next 3-4 weeks as the Pacific Northwest season winds down, Mexico slowly ramps up, and Peru remains limited. Raspberry and blackberry supplies remain favorable, though markets are expected to firm as California production declines.

Blueberries

Mexico

• New crop has started with light production
• Volume is expected to improve in three to four weeks
• Markets are expected to strengthen

Pacific Northwest

• Oregon harvest is nearing completion, with most shippers finishing next week
• Washington production will continue for approximately three more weeks
• Quality remains excellent
• Markets are expected to rise as supplies diminish

Peru

• Shipments are arriving, but September volume will remain limited
• Quality is good
• Market activity is expected to increase during the first few weeks of September

Blackberries

Mexico

• Harvest is beginning with light availability
• Increased volume is expected in three to four weeks

Watsonville

• Quality and flavor remain excellent with large sizing
• Production is declining as the season moves past its peak
• Harvest is expected to continue for another three to four weeks
• Markets are expected to gradually rise

Raspberries

Mexico

• Mexican production remains strong with good quality and availability
• Baja supplies continue to support the demand

California

• Watsonville/Salinas production is past its peak and expected to conclude within three to four weeks
• Supplies remain ample, and markets are expected to stay steady

Fresh-run MFC Onions are available in Idaho, Oregon, Washington, and Utah. New crop harvests are now underway across multiple growing regions; markets are gradually easing as production increases. Quality is good.

Washington

• New crop onion harvests are underway; volume is increasing
• Growers expect to begin loading from storage in mid-October
• Supplies are dominated by medium and jumbo sizes; colossal and super colossal sizes are somewhat limited but improving

Idaho/Oregon

• The Idaho/Oregon fresh run onion season is continuing to ramp up
• Harvests are expected to finish in mid-October as growers begin loading from storage supplies
• Current lots are dominated by medium and jumbo sizes; Colossal and super colossal sizes are limited, commanding higher prices

Utah

• New crop yellow onion harvests have begun in a limited manner; harvests will run through October prior to loading from storage supplies
• Red and white onion harvests will begin the first week of September

Colorado

• Fresh run onion harvests are underway
• Harvests will continue through late September before transitioning to storage supplies

The domestic Valencia crop is experiencing elevated cosmetic defects, while imported oranges are showing increased scarring and lighter color upon arrival. Although these issues are primarily cosmetic and do not affect internal quality, they may impact appearance. Growers are actively sorting affected fruit and shipping the best quality available. Product is experience thrip damage and wind scarring. Thrip damage is cosmetic rind damage caused by citrus thrips feeding on very young fruit shortly after petal fall; scars are often circular or banded and have a corky appearance. Wind scarring typically appears as random scratches or rubbed areas on the side of the fruit.

Domestic

• Early signs of decay, puff/crease, and over maturity are being driven by previous wet weather conditions.
• Fruit may appear sound at packing but can begin breaking down days later
• While these defects can be found in both grades, they are more prevalent in choice grade fruit

Imports

• Inconsistent color upon arrival is caused by several different factors
  • Warm growing conditions
  • Early harvesting
  • Insufficient degreening

MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available in Idaho, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Overall supplies are increasing as production ramps up on new crop in several regions with more areas coming on board soon. Markets are declining in all regions as supplies improve.

Idaho

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available
• New crop supplies are heavy to A-size with smaller sizing improving daily
• Quality is very good

Wisconsin

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available
• A-size potatoes dominate early shipments
• Excellent quality to start the season

Minnesota

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available
• Adequate volume on all sizes across the board
• Outstanding quality on both colors
• Supplies will be available until late September to early October

Washington

• Production of new crop red and yellow continues to ramp up
• Size profile for both red and yellow leaning to larger A-size to start the season
• Quality is good on both colors

Texas

• Season will wrap up at the end of this month
• Good size profile for both colors available
• Quality continues to be excellent

Upcoming Regions

• Colorado harvests will start in early September
• The Canadian season will start by mid-September
• North Dakota production will follow in early October

Strawberries remain in a demand-exceeds-supply situation as the Salinas/Watsonville growing region moves past peak production. Additionally, fruit quality is being impacted by elevated levels of soft skin and bruising, resulting in increased quality concerns across the market.

Watsonville/Salinas

• Quality is fair-good, with minor bruising and soft skin
• Quality defects have come from humid mornings and warm weather and will be present for the remainder of the season
• Soft skin and bruising are being reported
• Fruit may appear acceptable at the time of packing but can break down several days later
• Expect strong demand and high prices through the remainder of the season
• Maintaining the cold chain will be vital for shelf-life; Markon recommends ordering for quick turns

Santa Maria, California 

• Quality is good at the initial start of the season
• Bruising and uneven ripening are the major concerns
• Volume will not be ready for another two to three weeks
• Expect strong demand and high markets through the remainder of the season