Market Outlook

Prices are expected to hold a strong tone in the coming weeks, underpinned by tight ribeye supplies and the continued willingness of both foodservice and retail buyers to bid higher to secure product ahead of the holiday season.

Prices are set to range trade into year end, supported by holiday demand and tight supplies, with increasing buyer in the coming weeks providing additional support.

Prices have moved lower on softening retail demand as buyers trade down to lower-value items, though tenderloins’ compelling relative value at current levels should prompt a shift toward more aggressive buying interest.

Prices are expected to maintain a slightly firmer tone in November following recent strength, as grilling demand fades and retail buyers redirect their focus away from tri-tips toward other beef items.

Market conditions are expected to remain stable through year-end, with strong buyer support anticipated if market levels are tested. Retail demand continues to moderate, as reflected by a slight year-over-year decline in September sirloin steak pricing at grocery stores.

Market fundamentals are expected to remain soft in the near term, with some support likely to emerge as values continue to decline in the coming weeks. At the same time, planned brisket promotions by major restaurant chains, including Panda Express, Jimmy John’s, Arby’s, Taco Bueno, and Chipotle, are expected to provide additional demand support heading into 2026.

Prices are set to trade steady to lower on their usual seasonal track, with annual lows historically carved out in late October prices should start to find modest buying interest.

Prices are projected to trade steady to through year end, aligning with typical seasonal trends and retail carcass trade-down activity from higher-value items slowing at current levels.

Prices are expected to maintain a softer tone in November, in line with typical seasonal trends. Demand for rounds tends to moderate in the fall, which should keep inside round prices trading within a relatively narrow range in the near term.

Prices have declined in recent weeks, consistent with the typical post-Labor Day seasonal pattern. Demand for the chuck primal is expected to remain strong heading into the holiday season, providing ongoing support for Ground Chuck prices.

Prices have taken on a steady to softer tone heading in November, though any decline through year-end is expected to be gradual. Cow slaughter has already begun its seasonal increase, adding additional loads of lean trimmings to the market.

The WOG complex remains generally steady, supported by moderate interest from both retail and further-processing buyers. Supply availability varies by weight category. Smaller and larger birds remain sufficient to meet current demand, while availability in the mid-weight range is more limited and viewed as only marginally adequate. Market assessments for the mid-weight categories remain unchanged as participants continue to monitor supply conditions and await clearer market direction.

Market conditions remain largely unchanged across bone-in breasts and front halves, with supply and demand fundamentals holding steady. Jumbo boneless breasts continue to exhibit varying market conditions, though most feedback points to a balanced environment supported by consistent buyer interest. While some suppliers report limited excess availability and remain open to negotiations, volumes appear manageable and do not materially affect overall market sentiment. Medium- and select-sized boneless breasts remain well supported at current levels, with supplies ranging from adequate to slightly constrained. Demand for tenders varies by participant but generally ranges from fair to moderate. Overall, negotiated activity and completed transactions continue to support current market conditions, resulting in a steady outlook across the breast meat complex.

The wing market remains generally steady, with only limited changes in overall conditions. While some participants report modest improvement in spot demand from retail and foodservice channels, interest remains below typical seasonal expectations. Supply and demand fundamentals across all size categories are largely balanced, supporting a steady outlook for the market.

Across the dark meat complex, supplies are generally adequate, while demand remains moderate. Fresh legs continue to face some pressure as available supplies compete for buyer interest, though overall market conditions remain relatively stable. Feedback on drumsticks is mixed, with some participants reporting limited near-term demand while others describe balanced availability. Thigh supplies remain well distributed, although some buyers note that availability has improved compared to recent weeks. Leg quarters continue to benefit from consistent demand, supported by both domestic and export channels. Further-processed leg meat remains balanced, with limited spot market activity providing few new directional signals. Thigh meat remains the weakest part of the complex, as increased availability and softer demand continue to weigh on market sentiment. Overall, conditions across the dark meat segment are steady, with participants looking for additional transactional activity to establish a clearer market direction.

Activity in the frozen whole turkey market remains relatively limited, reflecting a combination of restrained offerings and cautious buyer participation. However, product availability is beginning to improve, with modest volumes becoming more visible in the marketplace. Fresh production continues to move steadily through established customer commitments, supporting balanced market conditions. Within the breast meat segment, both consumer and institutional-sized products remain stable, with supply and demand dynamics showing little change from recent trends. Overall, the market maintains a steady tone as participants monitor availability and demand heading into the upcoming seasonal period.

Fresh tom breast meat remains well supported by moderate to strong buyer interest, with demand continuing to align well with available supplies. Frozen tom breast meat is also attracting increased attention; however, both buyers and sellers remain cautious as they evaluate market conditions and purchasing needs. Overall, the breast meat market maintains a steady tone, supported by consistent demand and balanced supply fundamentals across both fresh and frozen product categories.

Prices have softened sharply in recent weeks as retail and foodservice demand weakens, with national chains pivoting toward value at the expense of premium items. Short-term rallies are possible, but the trend through year-end remains soft.

Prices are trading near record lows despite strong overall loin exports, with boneless sirloins seeing limited international buying interest. Domestic retail buyers are expected to step up in the coming weeks as current price levels offer compelling value.

Prices are expected to maintain a softer tone as higher production gradually builds supply against moderate demand.

Prices are expected to trade steady to lower in line with seasonal trends, with butts continuing to offer compelling relative value and increased retail featuring activity expected to provide a degree of downside support.

Prices are set to trade softer as domestic demand remains restrained, with retail activity expected to improve toward late November for the holiday season. Export sales have been strong overall, though U.S. hams face rising competition from other pork exporting nations.

White shrimp market remains stable overall, driven by lower inbound product price from India offsetting higher costs of product out of central America. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention. Expecting prices to rise in Q3/4 with new tariffs.

Black shrimp market remains stable overall, with some lower pricing noted on Headless shell on and smaller sizes. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention. expecting prices to rise in Q3/4 with new tariffs.

Pricing remains firm, large sizes (U10-U8) remain very tight to unavailable due to MMPA restrictions on key catch areas for these sizes.

Warm water lobster has stabilized with some lower pricing offers presenting in larger sizes. High volume sizes (5-8oz) remain stable and is showing signs of increase as supply tightens.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Snow crab pricing is expected to keep its upward trend through Jan as the market continues to work through frozen inventories and supplies get tighter. Customers are encourage to secure needs early to minimize exposure against price increases and limited availability.

Prices have leveled off with the continued lack of Russian product in the market, some sizes remain scarce but product is available.

Prices remain stable at current levels, several countries are experiencing quality and consistency issues.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

Farmed salmon is expected to experience continued volatility with an upward trend expected during the holiday season and through lent as China continues to buy at 3x the pace they have in prior years, and the wild salmon season was a bust.

Farmed salmon is expected to experience continued volatility with an upward trend expected during the holiday season and through lent as China continues to buy at 3x the pace they have in prior years, and the wild salmon season was a bust.

Farmed salmon is expected to experience continued volatility with an upward trend expected during the holiday season and through lent as China continues to buy at 3x the pace they have in prior years, and the wild salmon season was a bust.

Supply remains stable out of Asia, South and Central American supply remains strained and continues to be an issue.

Market to slightly increase in coming weeks as processors experience higher labor and fuel costs.

Scallop market has leveled off at current pricing, expect market to increase in late November.

Prices continue to rise as availability remains strained globally, key sizes and cuts are being allocated across all major suppliers.

Pacific cod is expected to remain firm to increasing in price through Q2 of next year, lack of Russian imports and a US catch at about 30% of expectation has caused severe strain on the supply chain. Customers with consistent volume requirements should secure those volumes in advance and will need to be flexible with sizing to maintain Pacific cod on their menu.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

MMPA is still an unknown – pricing remains high but stable.

Season is in full swing, boat pricing is down slightly from the opener but prices remain at record levels – predominant factor is fuel prices.

The cooler weather is boosting milk output across the country. Milk production continues to run at record levels, while ongoing bottling and protein demand has created a more competitive situation for fluid supplies. US milk production in September 2.6% YOY as domestic heads grew by 26k head and remain at a 33-year highs, keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, strong milk fat tests and protein demand have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market. Overall supplies remain comfortable, while firm powder markets are keeping milk values supported.

The domestic butter market is consolidating after reaching its lowest levels since February 2021. With prices still at historic lows, additional order interest continues to materialize as buyers look at year over year savings and the coming build for holiday and baking season demand. This continues to provide modest support on breaks, while abundant butterfat has been a huge barrier to higher prices. Record milk production has kept abundant supplies of cream coming to market and butter churns continuing to run at record levels, and demand has not quite been able to keep up. Also, improved farmer margins this past week should continue to support record milk and cream production in the US. Updated cold storage levels of butter showed another disappointing month for seasonal drawdowns as the August to September decline was the smallest in 4 years, with September stocks now 16.5% higher than last year.

The domestic block cheese market are working lower after setting calendar year highs the prior week. Quality issues at a plant in the central US forced end users to scramble for coverage in the spot market at a time when producers have been shifting production schedules away from young cheddar, but that is now starting to get cleaned up. This move higher in prices does not match the overall fundamental situation of output continuing to exceed demand, and should be short lived. Record milk production and improving farmer margins nearby should keep plenty of milk flowing into cheese vats and ultimately weigh on cash values if we want to keep the record pace of exports going into the end of the year. Domestic demand remains unsteady as domestic use has seen YOY declines in 5 of the past 6 months due to economic uncertainty pressuring consumer retail and foodservice trends. US export competitiveness has lost ground on the sharp rally the past few weeks, and the global marketplace remains very competitive. Stagnant domestic orders and the need to stay competitive into the export market should ultimately keep pressure on block cheese values as the cash squeeze stalls out.

The shell egg market is starting to rebound off its nearby lows. There was another HPAI outbreak reported in a California laying flock last week that removed 1.3 million hens, and additional reports of HPAI outbreaks in Washington and Oregon this week. When combined with the retail and foodservice demand patterns starting to show some renewed life, prices are finding support as supplier are holding inventories with greater confidence. Cage free eggs are attempting to regain their premium to the conventional markets as suppliers are not needing to discount their offers to generate demand into the seasonally firm Nov/Dec timeframe. Updated cage free layers for October showed a minor 58k head decline from the prior month and confirms the slowdown in expansion amid compressed margins.

The soybean oil market is in full risk off mode as liquidation pressure across the soybean complex has pushed values back towards their April lows. Soybean oil demand continues to face headwinds from a solid import lineup of used cooking oil and tallow. Also, the sharp declines in energy markets following the US midterms has sponsored further weakness in the edible oil markets as it reduces biofuel production margins. Domestic soybean oil basis offers remained soft as the market indicates plenty of supply available in the front end with seasonal increases in crush rates.

The spot canola seed futures are following the soybean complex lower this week as the Canadian harvest is wrapping up. The January canola seed futures are now down just a little over 9% from their September peak. RBD canola oil offers were steady to slightly lower for the week.

The December palm oil futures is leaking lower this week, following the lead of the soybean oil market. Malaysia’s palm oil output is likely to escape the worst of El Niño, for now, as better-than-expected rainfall limits crop losses, offering a measure of relief from a global cereal and vegetable oil supply squeeze that has fueled food inflation. The world’s No. 2 palm oil producer is expected to deliver about 19.8 million to 20 million metric tons in 2027, and just below this year’s expected near-record output of 20.28 million tons.

Disruptions to harvesting activity in Michoacán, Mexico over the past two weeks have significantly tightened U.S. avocado supplies and driven markets higher. While industry leaders and grower groups have reached an agreement that could allow harvesting to resume on November 5, the restart remains subject to confirmation and the level of grower participation is still unknown. Inventories have declined steadily throughout the disruption, and supply chains will require time to recover even after harvesting resumes.

Supply

• Harvesting in Michoacán has remained largely suspended since late October, while Jalisco has continued harvesting at reduced volumes that are insufficient to offset lost production
• According to APEAM, harvesting is expected to resume on Thursday, November 5, although actual harvested yields and participation levels remain uncertain
• Even after harvesting resumes, several days will be required for product to move through harvesting, packing, transportation, ripening, and distribution channels before supplies begin to recover

Pricing

• Markets remain elevated due to declining inventories, limited harvest activity, and significantly higher field prices in Mexico
• Industry field costs increased approximately 71.5% during the disruption period
• Pricing is expected to remain firm in the near term, even if harvesting resumes, as supply pipelines will take time to rebuild
• Any meaningful market correction will depend on sustained harvest volumes and inventory recovery

Markon Recommendation

• Maintaining flexibility is suggested on avocado sizing and specifications
• Members should place orders as far in advance as possible, particularly for ripened fruit programs, as supply remains constrained and inventories are well below normal levels
• Expect continued supply pressure and elevated pricing until harvesting activity normalizes and inventories throughout the supply chain are replenished

The East Coast bell pepper market is rising due to tight supplies in South Georgia, as well as recent rainfall in Central and South Florida that delayed production. In the West, green bell supplies have increased; however, red bells are snug as growers transition to California’s Coachella region. Markon First Crop (MFC) and Markon Essentials (ESS) Green and Red Bell Peppers are available.

Green Bells

• California volume is increasing in Coachella, California
  • All sizes are available
  • Quality is excellent
  • Expect markets to ease over the next few weeks
• Western Mexico is expected to start harvesting in mid-November
• Recent rainfall in Florida and Georgia has reduced supplies across the East Coast
  • The East Coast bell pepper market continues to strengthen and is expected to remain elevated over the next several weeks
  • Availability is limited
  • Quality ranges from fair to good

Red Bells

• California supplies are snug as transitions will occur over the next two weeks from coastal regions to Coachella
• Stocks are tight in Central Mexico (crossing into South Texas)
• Canadian greenhouse production is inconsistent due to fewer daylight hours and cloudy weather
• Expect higher prices over the next two weeks

Melon markets are climbing as domestic production winds down. MFC Cantaloupe and Honeydew are available.

Cantaloupe

Arizona Desert Region

• Production is underway, but yields are lower than California summer supplies
• Recent rain in the Yuma area has delayed harvesting this week
• Size is focused on 9- and 12-count fruit; jumbo 9-count melons are extremely limited
• Quality is good, but mud and bruising have been reported
• Volume will decline over the next two to three weeks as the season winds down
• Expect markets to rise through the end of the month

Mexico

• The season has begun in a limited manner
• Minor mud spots and occasional bruising are being reported
• While Markon is not buying any Mexican cantaloupes, markets are comparable to domestic fruit
• Cantaloupe presents unique food safety and traceability challenges that, combined with past concerns involving Mexican-grown product, have led Markon to place a hold on sourcing cantaloupes from this region

Central American Imports

• The first shipments of import melons are on track to arrive into U.S. ports over the next few weeks
• Initial volume will be low

Honeydew

Arizona Desert Region

• Supplies are steady, but the seasonal decline will begin over the next three to four weeks
• Harvesting was briefly delayed by rain this past weekend
• Jumbo-size fruit is most common, but five- through eight-count supplies are increasing
• Wind scarring is being reported, but internal quality has been solid
• Markets will stay steady for the next two to three weeks

Mexico

• Supplies are slowly ramping up
• Size variance is more mixed than domestic product
• Quality is solid despite rain
• Prices are lower than those for domestic fruit

Cauliflower markets continue to climb. Extremely limited supplies are forecast for the next several weeks. ESS Cauliflower is available.

• California volume is low due to recent rainfall, quality challenges, and depleted late-season acreage
• Diamondback moth (DBM) pressure remains elevated across growing regions
• Discoloration and other quality defects continue to impact overall yields and packouts
• Recent heat and moisture have extended quality concerns and reduced harvest efficiencies
• The Arizona-California desert transition is scheduled to begin the week of November 9
• Desert production will increase gradually through mid- to late November, providing only limited near-term relief
• As demand exceeds available supply, markets will rise further over the next two to three weeks

Iceberg and romaine supplies have increased; yields from Huron, Oxnard, Las Cruces, and Yuma are covering the shortages in Salinas and Santa Maria. Green leaf remains limited, but will increase soon as production from Huron and Yuma offsets the shortages in Salinas. MFC Green Leaf, Iceberg, and Romaine Lettuces are available in Salinas, California; Markon Best Available (MBA) is being substituted as needed due to low weights.

Salinas/Santa Maria, California

• Quality ranges from fair to good; insect pressure, internal burn, mildew, and seeder are being found in many lots
• Disease pressure, including INSV and Sclerotinia, persists; percentages of impacted heads vary from lot to lot
• Salinas Valley yields are low
• Iceberg and romaine prices are falling
• Green leaf markets will remain strong until the desert season ramps up in mid-November

Huron, California

• Iceberg, romaine, and romaine heart quality is very good; head weights range from 38 to 42 pounds
• Markets are easing

Mexico (crossing into Texas)

• Iceberg production continues year-round
• Prices are inching down
• Quality is very good; head weights range from 28 to 32 pounds

New Mexico

• The iceberg market is falling
  • Quality is very good
  • Weights are in the high 30s
• Early season rains wiped out 10-15% of total plantings; romaine is expected to be the most limited lettuce this fall season (through late November)

South Carolina

• Production will begin in the next two to three weeks

California seedless lemons have begun shipping this week.

• External color, size, and taste mirror seeded lemons
• Prices are high; supplies are tight, but expected to increase week over week
• Quality is excellent

California’s Santa Maria and Oxnard growing regions received more rain over the weekend, creating additional challenges for growers. While rainfall totals were relatively low, fields continue to experience the cumulative effects of recent heat events and rain, resulting in limited availability.

Orders scheduled to pack and ship today, November 2, and Tuesday, November 3, will be extremely limited. California growers will only meet approximately 50% of demand due to ongoing quality challenges. All berries harvested will have a reduced shelf life due to these issues.

Mexico’s strawberry season has begun; however, production is not expected to reach full volume until late November or early December. Markon is shifting member orders to Mexico over the next two weeks as yields permit.

Although rainfall amounts were modest, the combination of recent heat and wet weather has left fields struggling to produce sufficient supplies.

• Strawberry availability will remain extremely low throughout this week
• Shortages, delays, and harvest cancellations are expected
• Markets will remain active, as demand will far exceed available supplies
• The long-term weather forecast indicates another storm may move into California’s Central Coast late this week

Tomato supplies are increasing on the East Coast. Florida growers have begun harvesting in the Palmetto/Ruskin. West Coast supplies remain snug, especially round and grape tomatoes.

Rounds

• California production has ended
• East Coast harvesting is increasing in Palmetto/Ruskin, Florida; volume remains low but will increase over the next two weeks
• Mexican production is limited in Baja and Central Mexico due to past weather events; new crop harvesting will start in Central Mexico by mid-November
• Markets will start to ease at that stage

Romas

• California is harvesting the last of the small-size fruit this week as this season comes to an end
• East Coast production is increasing in Florida
• Mexican volume is low in Baja and Central Mexico due to past storms
• Markets will start to ease over the next two weeks

Grape and Cherry

• Palmetto/Ruskin production is increasing in Florida
• Baja and Central Mexico availability remains extremely low
  • Quality is fair
  • Splits and shriveling are concerns during grading
• Expect prices to ease over the next few weeks