Market Outlook

Prices will hold firm in the weeks ahead as the market navigates the transitional period between the typical post-Labor Day demand slowdown and the year-end demand build that generally gains momentum in late October.

Market conditions are expected to remain steady to firm over the next several weeks, supported by factors that are likely to counter the typical seasonal softening pattern. While market fundamentals may fluctuate, overall sentiment points to a stable environment with modest upside potential through year-end.

Market conditions are expected to remain steady to firm in the coming months, supported by typical seasonal demand patterns. While retail and foodservice demand is anticipated to be more moderate than in prior years, overall market fundamentals should remain supportive, helping to maintain a stable market environment through year-end.

Prices expected to take on a more neutral tone into October after recent strength, with grilling demand in the rearview and retail buyers shifting focus away from tri-tips toward other beef items.

Market conditions are expected to be steady to slightly weaker into October as retail demand gradually moderates heading into the fall season. Despite this softer demand outlook, underlying market fundamentals are expected to provide support through year-end. Recent retail performance indicates only modest movement in sirloin demand compared with the broader beef category, reflecting a more measured consumer purchasing environment. Overall, the market is expected to remain stable, with limited downside risk in the months ahead.

Prices are set to stay firm even with Labor Day and Yom Kippur demand behind the market, as a solid demand base and stepped-up QSR promotional activity at foodservice keep values supported.

Prices are set to remain soft following their typical seasonal path, with values historically carving out annual lows in the back half of October as demand eases and supplies build, leaving little near-term catalyst for a rebound.

Prices are poised to hold in a narrow range despite strong seasonal softness pressure into October, with retail buyers trading down the carcass from higher-value items providing above-normal underlying support.

Prices are expected to trade steady to lower in the coming weeks, in line with typical seasonal trends, as supplies remain adequate to meet prevailing demand.

Prices have declined only modestly following Labor Day, as sustained retail demand for quality ground beef products continues to provide underlying support. A steady to lower price trend, similar to the pattern observed last year, is likely to persist through the end of 2026.

Prices are set to ease modestly as seasonal softness into October weighs on the market, though tight fresh lean trimming supplies should provide strong underlying support and limit the downside.

WOG markets remain steady as the week comes to a close. Overall activity is relatively quiet, though retail demand associated with early-month business is beginning to surface for next week. Trading volumes were limited, with little market activity to suggest any meaningful change in current conditions. Supply and demand remain generally balanced, supporting a stable market environment heading into the new month.

The white meat complex remains quiet, with fewer jumbo and NAE boneless breast offerings available on the spot market. Excess inventories have eased, resulting in a more balanced supply picture, though some participants report tightening availability heading into next week. Medium boneless breast supplies remain readily available, while overall offerings have become less abundant as the week closes. Tender markets are similarly quiet, with buyers continuing to cover near-term needs and spot supplies becoming less visible. Market conditions remain generally stable heading into next week.

Wings are mixed, with demand continuing to vary by participant and channel. Jumbo wings are drawing both bearish and bullish undertones, while medium and small-sized offerings remain generally well cleared.

Conditions across the back half remain largely unchanged. Leg and thigh supplies continue to be tight, with some buyers reporting availability below current requirements. Leg quarters and drums are more readily available, though market activity varies across regions and channels. Demand for thigh and leg meat remains strong, and securing spot loads continues to be challenging in some cases due to limited availability. Overall, supply constraints within key back-half products continue to support a firm market tone.

Trade of frozen whole turkeys remains very slow to surface, with the limited transactions that take place supporting listed assessments. Hens are especially difficult to procure. The consumer and institutional-sized breasts are well-cleared, and that market appears to be steady.

The market for fresh and frozen breast meat is relatively well-balanced. Tenders trade in a mostly stable manner, though demand is somewhat quiet. The call for thigh meat is described as moderate, and pricing is steady. Meanwhile, the markets for ground breast trim, scapula, and ground wing meat appear to be quiet and uneventful. Fresh and frozen MST is rated steady to start the morning.

Market conditions have softened over the past month and are expected to remain under seasonal pressure through the end of the year. Weaker domestic demand and increased production continue to weigh on overall market sentiment. That said, downside risk appears more limited at current levels, as improving value opportunities may begin to attract renewed buyer interest and provide support to the market in the months ahead.

Prices are expected to remain under soft seasonal pressure through September. While loin demand is drawing modest support from relative value, ample supplies continue to keep the market well stocked.

Prices are set to trend steady to lower with grilling demand behind the market and production rising seasonally, though ribs’ attractive value at current levels should lend some near-term support.

Prices are likely to trade steady to lower over the next several weeks, consistent with typical seasonal patterns. Butts continue to offer compelling value relative to other pork items, and increased retail featuring activity should help limit the extent of any price decline.

After pulling back from early July highs, prices have found support and are poised to trade mostly steady through year-end, as near-term headwinds from rising production and soft retail demand are offset by continued export interest from Asia and Mexico.

White shrimp market remains stable overall, driven by lower inbound product price from India offsetting higher costs of product out of central America. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention. Expecting prices to rise in Q3/4 with new tariffs.

Black shrimp market remains stable overall, with some lower pricing noted on Headless shell on and smaller sizes. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention. expecting prices to rise in Q3/4 with new tariffs.

Pricing remains firm, large sizes (U10-U8) remain very tight to unavailable due to MMPA restrictions on key catch areas for these sizes.

Warm water lobster has stabilized with some lower pricing offers presenting in larger sizes. High volume sizes (5-8oz) remain stable and is showing signs of increase as supply tightens.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Canadian Snow crab has started trending north from the bottom of the market in May expect a tight and expensive supply in off season. There may be some deals to be had in September if suppliers get backed up but that currently seems unlikely.

Prices have leveled off with the continued lack of Russian product in the market, some sizes remain scarce but product is available.

Prices remain stable at current levels, several countries are experiencing quality and consistency issues.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

Salmon market has started to increase ahead of season, salmon likely to be very expensive in Q1/2.

Salmon market has started to increase ahead of season, salmon likely to be very expensive in Q1/2.

Salmon market has started to increase ahead of season, salmon likely to be very expensive in Q1/2.

Supply remains stable out of Asia, South and Central American supply remains strained and continues to be an issue.

Market to slightly increase in coming weeks as processors experience higher labor and fuel costs.

Scallops remain firm with smaller sizes softening in demand in recent weeks, quotas remain in place at much lower levels than last year so anticipate any cost relief to be temporary. Quarterly scallop pricing to refresh next week, will see a slight increase in pricing.

Prices continue to rise as availability remains strained globally, key sizes and cuts are being allocated across all major suppliers.

Pacific cod season has ended and supply is about 20% of expectation – supply and pricing is expected to be very high at least until B season kicks off in August/September. We have secured enough cod to get us to the next season, expect pricing to continue to rise by as much as 20%.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

MMPA is still an unknown – pricing remains high but stable.

Season is in full swing, boat pricing is down slightly from the opener but prices remain at record levels – predominant factor is fuel prices.

Milk production continues to run at record levels despite some seasonally tighter availability nearby. The reduced summer output is giving way to cooler temperatures and increased productivity, while ongoing bottling demand has created a more competitive situation for fluid supplies. US milk production in August jumped 1.7% YOY as domestic heads remained at their 33-year highs, keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, strong milk fat tests and protein demand have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market. Overall supplies remain comfortable, while firm powder markets are keeping milk values rangebound.

The domestic butter continues to trade back towards the January lows but has noted strong demand given historic value and the seasonal bias for prices to rally into early Q4. This has supported butter prices on these breaks, while abundant butterfat has been a huge barrier to higher prices. Record milk production has kept abundant supplies of cream coming to market and butter churns continuing to run at record levels. The USDA reported July butter production set another monthly record and was 5.5% higher YOY. Even with strong domestic offtake, this is keeping the market extremely well supplied. The most recent cold storage levels confirmed stocks are seasonally declining and remain 3% lower than last year, but that the seasonal drawdown from June was the smallest since 2020. Record domestic consumption and an extremely competitive export bid are working to clear the excess production coming to market from the record churn pace seen so far this year, however ongoing impressive milk output has kept butter churns full and running hard, requiring aggressive pricing to drive demand.

The domestic block cheese market continues to slowly grind lower this week. Record milk production helped drive record cheese production in July, which came in 2.1% higher than last year. American and cheddar cheese lost some of the priority from producers seen in June, and were actually down -1.1% and -1.7% YOY respectively as schedules favored Mozzarella in July. However, the larger overall cheese output will continue to keep pressure on the export markets to clear additional supplies as domestic demand has been lower YOY in 4 of the past 5 months. The export market remains competitive and is limiting upside given the need for domestic prices to stay cheap enough to encourage that much needed export demand. The US saw record cheese exports in July, coming in 25% higher than last year and helping prevent stocks from becoming burdensome. The most recent Cold Storage report showed that cheese supplies are seasonally declining, but at a slower than normal pace.

The domestic shell egg market is attempting to stabilize just above the summer lows as renewed order interest emerges. After the run-up in prices during July, buyers (both retail and foodservice) adjusted tactics to just replenish inventories to cover immediate needs, but now with prices again providing historical value, depleted pipelines are starting to be refilled. There are still plenty of eggs coming to market, but the market is again coming into a better balance. The forward outlook has some risk factors that should limit downside, with HPAI concerns starting back up with the fall migration season in September and October, along with the normal increase in retail and foodservice demand into the colder months of the year.

The soybean oil market remains rangebound as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elevated energy markets continue to influence sentiment. Strong renewable fuel demand, supportive biofuel policies, and constrained global vegetable oil supplies continue to provide underlying support. At the same time, increased feedstock imports have helped satisfy a portion of demand, easing some pressure on the domestic soybean oil market. Market direction remains closely tied to global vegetable oil fundamentals, as imports continue to play an important role in balancing growing biofuel-related demand.

The November canola futures market is consolidating near contract highs, largely tracking movements in the broader oilseed complex. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding global trade flows continues to support demand expectations for Canadian canola in both domestic and key export markets. Recent inventory data indicates supplies remain above year-ago levels but below historical levels seen in recent years. Meanwhile, canola oil values have shown modest easing, though overall market fundamentals remain supportive as participants monitor export demand and developments across competing vegetable oil markets.

The spot palm oil futures finding solid buying interest off last week’s lows. Updated Malaysian Palm Oil Board data showed stocks growing to an 8-month high and a record for the month. However, even with the well supplied nearby market, increasing renewable fuel demand in Indonesia and Malaysia, along with ongoing concerns from El Nino production losses into 2027 have kept forward prices estimates firm.

Rain and thunderstorms across Michoacán, Mexico are causing short-term harvesting disruptions; however, overall avocado supplies remain available. Market conditions are expected to remain steady, with weather-related harvest and shipping delays representing the primary near-term challenge.

Mexico

• Weather remains the primary factor influencing market conditions and harvest activity
• Supplies are expected to remain adequate, although intermittent weather-related shipping delays may occur
• Large-size fruit continues to command a premium, while smaller counts remain more competitively priced
• Quality is generally holding steady, although wet field conditions may require increased quality management as growers work through harvest interruptions
• Market pricing is stable overall, with larger sizes maintaining stronger value

California

• The California harvest is approximately 95% complete; weekly volume will decline through the rest of the season
• The crop remains heavily weighted toward larger sizes, with 48-count fruit representing 32% of pack out
  • 60-count supplies account for 10% of shipments
  • 70-count stocks make up 5% of orders
• Mexican fruit will supplement domestic supplies as needed to fill orders and maintain consistent availability

Peru

• This season is nearing completion, with final containers currently in transit and expected to arrive over the coming weeks
• The remaining inventory is primarily concentrated in 40-count and larger fruit
• Most supplies are largely committed to existing programs, although limited spot opportunities may be available depending on pricing and inventory positions

The California season is winding down. Markon First Crop (MFC) Cantaloupe and Honeydew Melons are available.

Cantaloupe

San Joaquin Valley, California

• Volumes are gradually declining as cooler nighttime temperatures slow crop growth.
• Some fields have been negatively impacted by disease and insect pressure
• The cantaloupe size profile remains balanced, with all sizes currently available
• Minor quality issues are present, such as scarring and bruising
• The California Central Valley season is expected to conclude in two to three weeks
• Harvesting in the Arizona-California Desert region is scheduled to begin the week of October 12 for the Fall season
• Markets are expected to remain steady this week but may firm slightly as the industry transitions between growing regions

Honeydew

San Joaquin Valley, California

• Like cantaloupe, volume is declining for honeydew
• Five-count is most available, while eight- and nine-count are limited
• Quality is fair to good with discoloration occasionally present
• Honeydew production in California’s Central Valley is expected to conclude within the next two weeks before harvests commence in the Arizona-California Desert region
• Mexican-grown honeydews are expected to become more readily available within the next one to two weeks, helping offset the decline in domestic production
• As California supplies continue to tighten, markets are expected to strengthen over the coming weeks until additional volume becomes available in mid-October

Cucumber markets are increasing as production in the Northeast and Midwest ends and Mexico transitions growing regions in October. Markon First Crop Cucumbers are available.

• Mexican supplies remain tight due to lighter yields caused by recent weather and seasonal production transitions
  • Growers in Mexico are adjusting harvesting schedules this week in preparation for Hurricane Polo
• Midwest and Northeast production is winding down and is expected to conclude next week.
• Georgia production is underway with good supply and quality
• Eastern Canada, Long English greenhouse cucumber supplies remain limited
• Expect modest price increases this week due to lower yields and stronger demand

Grapefruit supplies are expected to remain extremely limited over the coming weeks, as demand continues to outpace available volume. Market conditions are not expected to improve until new production from Mexico, South Texas, and California’s Central Valley begins entering the market in mid- to late October

California

• The season is winding down in District 2 (Southern California)
• Size and grade substitutions will be necessary to fill orders
• California D1 (Central Valley) production is expected to begin in late October
• Expect extremely limited supplies and sizing options over the next three weeks

South Texas

• The season is expected to begin in late October and run through April

Mexico

• The season will begin in late October and run through March

Florida

• The season will begin in September and run through June

Decreased yields continue to push up all lettuce prices. Iceberg is by far the most active market; green leaf and romaine markets are inching up at slower rates. Markon First Crop (MFC) Green Leaf, Iceberg, and Romaine Lettuces are available in Salinas, California; Markon Best Available (MBA) is being substituted as needed due to low weights.

Salinas/Santa Maria, California

• Quality ranges from fair to good; insect pressure, internal burn, mildew, and seeder are being found in many lots
• Disease pressure, including INSV and Sclerotinia, persists; percentages of impacted heads vary from lot to lot

Huron, California

• Production is expected to begin in mid-October

Mexico (crossing into Texas)

• Production continues year-round

New Mexico

• Las Cruces harvests are scheduled to start the week of October 5 and ramp up the following week
• Early season rains wiped out 10-15% of total plantings; romaine is forecast as the most limited lettuce this fall season (through late November)

Northeastern Canada and USA

• Harvests will run through early October
• Iceberg quality has varied greatly from week to week; green leaf and romaine quality is more consistent

Prices are elevated. Availability is tight for both imported and domestic oranges as both seasons wind down through mid-October. Quality is a major concern throughout the industry, with imported fruit continuing to outperform domestic supplies. To maintain the best available quality, Cara Cara oranges are being substituted for offshore Navels.

Domestic

• Markon First Crop (MFC) and Markon Essentials (ESS) Valencia Oranges are available
• Supplies are dominated by large sizes (56- to 88-count pieces); smaller sizes (113- to 138-count oranges) are extremely tight
• Expect 113- and 138-count oranges to remain scarce through October; size, grade, and country of origin substitutions will be needed to fill orders
• Previous wet weather has caused quality problems, such as decay, puffing, and creasing, in current supplies
  • Fruit may appear sound at packing but can begin breaking down days later
  • Markon recommends ordering for quick turns
• Expect elevated markets and limited supplies of all small fruit through mid-October

Imports

• Chilean, South African, and Peruvian oranges are being imported on both coasts
• Expect extremely tight supplies of 105- to 113-count oranges for the rest of the season
• Quality is great
  • Color is deep orange and skin texture is smooth
  • Sugar levels range from 12-13% Brix
• Prices will continue climbing until the season ends

Markon First Crop (MFC) Potatoes are available from Idaho and Washington. New crop harvests continue in Idaho, Washington, Colorado, and Wisconsin. Markets for larger 40-through 70-count sizes remain elevated.

Idaho

• New crop MFC Norkotah Potatoes are available
• New crop harvests will continue through mid-to-late October before transitioning to storage supplies
• Larger 40-through 70-count sizes remain limited, commanding higher prices
• Average to slightly below-average yields, combined with strong processor demand, are contributing to tighter market conditions this season
• New crop Burbank harvests are underway and expected to be available in early October after having gone through the sweat to set skins
• Quality is good, and prices are steady

Washington

• New crop MFC Norkotah Potatoes are available
• A good range of sizes is available, though strong demand for larger 40- through 50-count sizes is keeping markets elevated.
• Quality is good, and prices are steady

Wisconsin

• New crop harvests are continuing; growers expect to finish harvests in mid-October before loading from storage supplies
• Suppliers report a good range of sizing
• Quality is good, and prices are steady

Colorado

• New crop harvests are underway, expected to finish in the next 1-2 weeks before loading from storage
• Suppliers report a good range of sizing
• Quality is good, and prices are steady

The California stone fruit season is coming to an end.  

Peaches

• Domestic peach supplies are expected to finish the week of October 5th
• Quality remains good, with sugar levels ranging from 12 to 14 Brix
• The Chilean peach season is expected to begin the week of October 5th
• Expect elevated pricing as the market transitions to imported Chilean fruit

Plums

• Domestic plum supplies are expected to finish over the next 7 to 10 days
• Quality remains good, with sugar levels ranging from 11 to 14 Brix
• The Chilean plum season has begun
• Expect elevated pricing as the market transitions to imported Chilean fruit

Nectarines

• California season has ended
• Import season expected to begin in late November

Following a period of mild temperatures, a warming trend is forecast from October 2 through October 8, with daytime highs expected to reach the 80s across key growing regions. The prolonged heat is anticipated to accelerate fruit maturity and increase quality concerns, including overripening, bruising, and misshapen fruit, which may impact pack-outs, shelf life, and overall fruit quality moving into the following week.

Watsonville/Salinas

• Size is medium; counts range from 24-28 berries per 8/1-pound clamshell
• Quality is fair; pin rot, odd shape, bruising, and soft skin have been called out
• Maintaining the cold chain will be vital for shelf life; Markon recommends ordering for quick turns
• Expect the heat to increase prices

Santa Maria, California 

• Markon First Crop (MFC) Strawberries are available
• Size is medium; 20-24 berries per 8/1-pound clamshell
• Quality ranges from fair to good; light bruising and odd shape are possible issues
• Volume levels have increased
• Expect prices to climb

Oxnard, California

• MFC Strawberries are available
• Size is medium; 21-24 berries per 8/1-pound clamshell
• Quality is good; white shoulders and light bruising have been reported
• Maintaining the cold chain will be vital for shelf life; Markon recommends ordering for quick turns
• Expect the upcoming heat to increase markets

Prices are trending higher. East Coast tomato production is lighter than anticipated this week, while West Coast supplies continue to tighten as California production winds down. Mexican availability remains limited due to seasonal transitions and lingering impacts from Hurricane Polo, further constraining overall supply.

Rounds

• East Coast and Midwest
  • Virginia production is lighter than expected this week; projections for next week are low
  • Tennessee production continues, with volume decreasing
    • Georgia production is expected to start with very light volumes next week; limited volume is expected until mid-October
  • Michigan production is winding down; potential freeze conditions are expected early next week
  • Quality is good
  • Expecting elevated markets over the next few weeks
• Mexico
  • Supplies remain light to moderate; quality is mixed
  • Hurricane Polo caused heavy rain, flooding, and transportation disruptions in parts of Baja California Sur and Sonora; growers are assessing fields this week
  • Markets are firming as weather disruptions and seasonal transitions limit near-term supply
• California
  • Volume is uneven and lighter as production transitions south
  • Northern programs will wind down through October, tightening overall availability
  • Quality is generally good, but sizing and availability vary by shipper
  • Expect gradual upward price pressure as California supplies decline

Romas

• East Coast
  • Tennessee supplies continue with the season winding down
  • Overall quality is good
  • Expect markets to increase over the next couple of weeks
• Mexico
  • Volumes remain light to moderate; recent weather may cause short-term harvest and loading delays
  • Quality is fair to good by district
  • Markets are expected to increase over the next two weeks
• California
  • Production is tapering as crops transition farther south
  • Quality is generally good, but availability will tighten as northern programs finish

Grape and Cherry

• East Coast
  • Lighter supplies expected over the next couple of weeks
  • Slightly stronger markets are anticipated
• Mexico
  • Supplies remain limited across grape and cherry tomatoes
  • New October acreage should gradually improve availability
  • Quality is fair to good
  • Wet-field and transportation issues may create short-term delays