Market Outlook

Prices are set to trade steady to higher through Labor Day before trending gradually higher into the holiday season, with the typical seasonal dip in Choice beef grades adding further near-term supply constraints.

Prices are expected to soften through month-end, with easing consumer demand for higher-value beef cuts driving the downward trend, even as some buyers look to take advantage of lower levels to cover needs.

Prices are set to maintain a neutral tone into August, consistent with seasonal norms, as Tenderloin demand follows its typical seasonal softening trend amid growing consumer spending caution.

Prices have taken on a firmer tone as buyers secure product ahead of increased Labor Day grilling demand; however, upside is likely limited as foodservice demand remains moderate at best.

Prices are expected to remain under seasonal pressure through early August, as buyers gravitate toward more competitively priced alternatives to higher-cost beef cuts. Available supply remains more than adequate and may contribute to further price easing.

Prices are projected to trade steady in the coming weeks, as lackluster foodservice demand is offset by increased buying activity in preparation for Labor Day.

Prices are expected to maintain a weak tone heading into August, consistent with typical seasonal patterns. Moderate foodservice demand and ample load availability will keep downward pressure on prices.

Prices are set to trend softer over the next several weeks, counter to seasonal norms, as retail buying interest fades and skirt meat exports demand remains subdued.

Prices are expected to hold steady over the coming weeks, consistent with typical seasonal trends. Although buyers are likely to begin building inventory ahead of September, ample supply should be sufficient to offset any meaningful upward price pressure.

Prices will remain elevated in the coming weeks, aided by increased buying activity ahead of Labor Day, with consumers still trading down from higher-priced beef items.

Prices are expected to take on a more balanced tone after the recent pullback, aligning with seasonal trends. Retail demand should see a solid uptick in the coming weeks with the reemergence of grilling demand ahead of Labor Day.

The WOG complex winds down under an about steady to steady backdrop. Supplies are termed as adequate across most points of sale. Purchasers of the 3–4 lb. weight categories continue to evaluate the willingness of sellers to haggle around a modest discount, citing unhurried needs out of retail, distribution, and cutting channels, along with relatively steep freight costs. Our assessments for the 3.0–3.5 lb and 3.5–4.0 lb WOGs go unchanged as we await additional market-swaying developments. The heavier (4.0 lbs./up) and lighter (3.0 lbs./down) birds are maintained at listed levels.

Demand for bone-in breasts and front-half products remains relatively subdued, with many sellers reporting limited buyer interest and ongoing difficulty generating momentum. Jumbo boneless breasts continue to trade in a mixed environment. While some market participants report moderate to strong demand and a generally positive outlook, others note that supply remains readily available and are prioritizing product movement over holding firm on market positions. Overall, market conditions are viewed as stable as participants look for clearer direction. Medium-sized boneless breasts are generally considered balanced, with supply and demand remaining in alignment. Select-sized breast meat continues to see stronger interest, supported by active customer demand and well-managed inventory levels. In contrast, demand for tenders remains modest. Available supplies are sufficient to meet current needs, and market activity continues to reflect a cautious buying environment. As a result, overall sentiment in the tender market remains soft.

Wings are generally steady. That being said, this morning’s canvass uncovers a handful of players who have begun to contend with a retreat in spot buying interest when compared to the recent past. This is true for both whole and cut wings.

Looking at the back half of the bird, demand for legs and thighs remains moderate overall. Activity has been steady, though some market participants, particularly those involved in deboning operations, continue to take a cautious approach as the week draws to a close. Leg quarter demand remains consistent, with no significant changes in overall market conditions. Drumsticks also continue to move through the market at a steady pace, with buying and selling activity largely unchanged. Leg meat and thigh meat are also showing stable market fundamentals. Recent industry feedback suggests that available production is not as abundant as it has been in recent weeks, which has given sellers greater confidence in managing their inventories and commitments. Overall, the dark meat complex closes the week on a generally steady note.

Whole-body toms and hens open the week under a well-cleared supply backdrop. Buyers, particularly those seeking small-sized birds, struggle to uncover their current and forward-facing requirements. Offerings of consumer and institutional-sized breasts are also barely adequate to short of the current draw. Sellers with finite availability on hand hold production for no less than full market value.

Turning to raw materials, the undertone remains somewhat varied. Frozen tom breast meat deserves a steady rating to begin the week. That said, recent low-volume instances of modest price pressure remain evident. Frozen breeder and frozen hen meats are uneventful so far. Seasonal demand patterns leave much to be desired in the minds of marketers. Fresh breast meat changes hands within a range of supportive and slightly lower price points.

Prices are expected to remain firm into August, consistent with typical seasonal patterns. Retail demand is anticipated to remain adequate in the near term, while supplies have tightened considerably following packer downtime due to maintenance and operational issues.

Prices are set to trade steady to lower, bucking typical seasonal trends, as adequate supplies combine with weak retail demand and reduced exports to weigh on the market.

Prices are anticipated to ease into August, consistent with typical seasonal patterns. Retail demand for ribs is expected to soften as consumer preferences continue to shift toward other pork cuts.

Prices are expected to maintain a softer tone through the end of August, bucking the typical seasonal pattern in which values tend to hold relatively steady. Retail demand for boneless butts remains sluggish despite recent price declines.

Prices have taken on a weaker tone as product availability outpaces buying interest. Downside is likely limited, however, as Mexican export demand for bone-in hams remains firm and retail interest in boneless hams for lunchmeat grows ahead of the back-to-school season.

White shrimp market remains stable overall, driven by lower inbound product price from India offsetting higher costs of product out of central America. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention.

Black shrimp market remains stable overall, with some lower pricing noted on Headless shell on and smaller sizes. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention.

Pricing remains firm, large sizes (U10-U8) remain very tight to unavailable due to MMPA restrictions on key catch areas for these sizes.

Warm water lobster has stabilized with some lower pricing offers presenting in larger sizes. High volume sizes (5-8oz) remain stable and is showing signs of increase as supply tightens.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Canadian Snow crab has started trending north from the bottom of the market in May expect a tight and expensive supply in off season. There may be some deals to be had in September if suppliers get backed up but that currently seems unlikely.

Prices have leveled off with the continued lack of Russian product in the market, some sizes remain scarce but product is available.

Prices remain stable at current levels, several countries are experiencing quality and consistency issues.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

Salmon market has leveled off and remains stable at current rates, we are not seeing the seasonally expected decline in COG’s as of yet but are actively reviewing for opportunities.

Salmon market has leveled off and remains stable at current rates, we are not seeing the seasonally expected decline in COG’s as of yet but are actively reviewing for opportunities.

Salmon market has leveled off and remains stable at current rates, we are not seeing the seasonally expected decline in COG’s as of yet but are actively reviewing for opportunities.

Supply remains stable out of Asia, South and Central American supply remains strained and continues to be an issue.

Market to slightly increase in coming weeks as processors experience higher labor and fuel costs.

Scallops remain firm with smaller sizes softening in demand in recent weeks, quotas remain in place at much lower levels than last year so anticipate any cost relief to be temporary. Quarterly scallop pricing to refresh next week, will see a slight increase in pricing.

Prices continue to rise as availability remains strained globally, key sizes and cuts are being allocated across all major suppliers.

Pacific cod season has ended and supply is about 20% of expectation – supply and pricing is expected to be very high at least until B season kicks off in August/September. We have secured enough cod to get us to the next season, expect pricing to continue to rise by as much as 20%.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

MMPA is still an unknown – pricing remains high but stable.

Season is in full swing, boat pricing is down slightly from the opener but prices remain at record levels – predominant factor is fuel prices.

Milk production remains impressive while warming temperatures across the country are limiting milk output, while regional plant downtimes have kept milk more available nearby. Seasonally lower summer output and upcoming bottling demand for schools should limit weakness. US milk production report showed yet another large increase in June, jumping 2.3% YOY as another 19k head were added this month from the May report. This is the largest US herd in 33 years and is keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, strong milk fat tests have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market. Overall supplies remain comfortable, but cream multiples have been increasing.

The domestic butter was in free fall this past week, setting back to levels not seen since January. Despite the concerns around summer heat reducing overall milk supplies, cream has remained available and is keeping plenty of butter coming to market. However, both domestic and export demand have been impressive and are limiting any meaningful recovery in domestic cold storage levels. Updated June figures showed butter inventories seasonally declining from May, and coming in 6.6% below year ago levels. Despite tighter stocks, the availability of cream has continued to remove supply concerns for the upcoming fall baking season. This week’s move towards calendar year lows was met with a surge in booking interest, with CME daily volume noting its second largest day since 2003. When combined with seasonal declines in milk and cream into the summer months, prices are stabilizing.

The domestic cheese markets rejected their recent highs and are trading back into the middle of their recent range. Reduced milk output from higher temperatures is limiting spot availability of milk nearby, but the recent run up in US values has eroded the competitive advantage vs. other major exporters and will start to limit our ability to maintain the current record export pace seen so far this year.  The US was able to export 18% more cheese in May than the prior year, helping prevent stocks from becoming burdensome. The most recent Global Dairy Trade auction showed New Zealand cheddar prices falling 6.5% after previously falling 12.3% on the prior report. Stagnant domestic orders and a loss of competitiveness into the export market should help contain further upside risk in the coming weeks. The USDA’s Cold Storage report showed the largest May to June increase in a decade, with all cheese stocks for June coming in 0.8% lower YOY and American cheese stocks -1.7% YOY.

The shell egg markets reversed course this past week after running out of momentum on the recent rally. Conventional and cage free shell egg markets remain in better balance during what is normally the weakest time of year. Ongoing flock rotations have helped to limit the excessive amounts of eggs seen in May/June, while increased heat stress and strong export demand to Asia and Mexico have also helped limit oversupply. Even as we move into the summer doldrums for demand, prices should remain supported as recent poor producer margins limit growth potential in the US. This was noted on the USDA’s most recent Chickens and Eggs report that showed table egg laying flocks on July 1st were only 324k head higher than the prior month. Overall flocks are still 5% higher than the prior year, but when factoring in the 1.5 million layers that have been hit by HPAI so far this month, flocks are likely working lower. Also, the historically weak markets have sparked additional order interest as lower retail shelf prices and value propositions to foodservice drive some restocking efforts.

Despite renewed attacks between the US and Iran, energy prices remain well off their recent highs and soybean oil prices have followed lower. The ongoing supportive biofuel mandates will keep some level of order interest beneath the market from end users, but rumors this week around potential small refinery exemptions has kept the market on its heels. Current prices are now limiting additional feedstock imports, creating concerns for satisfying the elevated 2026 biofuel mandates. Domestic soybean oil basis offers remain firm through Q4 as crushers look for tighter stocks ahead.

The November canola seed futures made a new high for the move last week, but is following the soybean oil market lower so far this week. Cumulative Canadian canola exports have reached roughly 8.73 million metric tons, outpacing recent federal projections for the 2025–26 marketing year. RBD canola oil basis offers remain firm through the third quarter.

The palm oil futures closed higher last week, modestly narrowing the discount to soybean oil, but remain entrenched in a sideway range. China’s imports slowed in June, and high production cycle inventories remain a competing factor, though narrowing supplies and extreme weather risks keep the floor under prices. In the US, it appears that imports of palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia should be exempt from the newly imposed section 301 tariffs.

Avocado harvest out of the Mexico state of Michoacan has been suspended for the day by the APEAM (Association of Avocado Exporting Producers and Packers of Mexico) due to a security threat. This is a rapidly evolving situation; Markon will continue to monitor developments and provide updates as additional information becomes available.

Mexico

• All USDA inspection personnel have been withdrawn, preventing avocado packing and shipments from Michoacan to the United States
• Michoacan supplies approximately 75-80% of the avocados imported into the U.S from Mexico
• There is currently enough product inventory available to supply in the near term if operations resume quickly
• Shipment delays and potential avocado shortages could develop if the suspension continues for an extended period

Broccoli market activity accelerated late last week as demand strengthened significantly. Supplies have tightened, and markets are expected to trend higher this week. Markon First Crop (MFC) Broccoli is available in Salinas, California.

• Demand increased during the latter half of last week, resulting in tighter supplies and rising prices
• California yields remain below normal; current demand is exceeding available supply
• California quality ranges from average to good
• Diamondback moth pressure has been observed but is not a significant concern at this time
• Continued high temperatures may increase diamondback activity, discoloration, and dehydration
• Maine production is expected to ramp up this week, which should provide some relief
• Mexican broccoli supplies into South Texas are adequate; however, quality ranges from average to poor; reported defects include cat-eye, browning, and widespread hollow core
• Expect prices to increase throughout the week

Markets will remain low for the next several weeks as abundant supplies are shipping from the San Joaquin Valley. Markon First Crop (MFC) Cantaloupe and Honeydew are available.

Cantaloupe

• Harvesting is at peak capacity
• Large sizes (9-count and jumbo 9-count) are most plentiful; 15-count melons will remain tighter until second cuts are made
• Quality is great with tight seed cavities and internal sugars hitting 13-16% Brix
• Markets have been inching down due to increasing volume, but will strengthen slightly as supply stabilizes

Honeydew

• Volume has increased
• Five- and jumbo five-count melons are ample, but eight-count fruit is extremely scarce; smaller sizes will become more readily available in a couple of weeks
• Quality is good; sugar levels range from 12-14% Brix
• Prices will remain steady next week; supply is meeting demand

California garlic is harvested from June through August, with some product held in fresh storage before controlled-atmosphere storage is opened for year-round supply. New crop garlic is expected to transition approximately August 9, 2026, and may carry a stronger garlic odor compared to long-term storage product this is currently shipping. Markon members should expect the typical early-season, fresh-run characteristics outlined below in RSS (Ready Set Serve) Peeled Garlic.

• New crop production is expected to start on August 9, 2026
• Fresh-run garlic will differ from storage garlic at this early point in the season
  • Bulbs and cloves may contain more moisture
  • Outer skins may not be fully cured
• Cloves are typically more tender and harder to peel
  • Surface sheen or translucent spots may appear
  • Light discoloration can occur from cracking and peeling
• Subtle moisture may be visible in the bag
• Garlic odor may be stronger in the first several weeks of the season
• Shelf life may be shorter than normal until the crop completes the curing process
• Markon recommends maintaining the cold chain when handling, and increase product turns to maximize early season yields

Cooler temperatures this week are expected to enhance fruit quality by promoting better sizing and firmer skin,

Salinas/Watsonville

• Markon First Crop (MFC) Strawberries are available
• Berry size ranges from medium-large to large; counts average 18 pieces per 1-pound clamshell
• Quality is good; issues include bruising and soft skin
• Past weather issues have crews culling over-ripe berries
• Maintaining the cold chain will be vital for shelf life; Markon recommends ordering for quick turns
• Expect markets to slowly rise

Santa Maria

• Limited harvesting is underway
• Shippers are expecting volume in 2-3 week
• Quality has been good to start

Cauliflower markets strengthened last week due to tighter supplies. Lower yields across California and concerns about quality in key growing regions continue to pressure supply. Expect markets to remain elevated over the next several weeks. Markon Essentials (ESS) Cauliflower is on the market.

Cauliflower

• California yields remain below normal, and current demand is exceeding available supply
• Salinas is experiencing increased demand, and lighter yields are driving the markets higher.
• Diamondback pressure is present but is currently not a significant concern
• Santa Maria is experiencing heavy Diamondback pressure, exacerbated by recent warm weather, reducing yields
• Expect elevated pricing to continue
• Maine production is underway and is expected to increase during the latter half of next week
  • Recent rainfall has delayed harvesting in some areas; production is expected to continue through mid- to late September
• Canadian cauliflower supplies remain strong and are expected to continue into early October

Chilean Mandarins remain in a demand-exceeds-supply situation. Prior heavy rain impacted fruit production in Chile, resulting in limited supplies and rising prices.

• The import season will run through November
• Massive rainstorms have made harvesting a logistical challenge
• Crop yields are significantly below historical averages, creating a supply gap between the Clementine and Tango varieties
• Expect market conditions to remain extremely tight over the next three weeks

Blackberry supplies are improving rapidly, with Watsonville and the Pacific Northwest now contributing harvest volume and helping alleviate recent shortages. Blueberries and raspberries remain in strong supply, offering excellent quality and consistent availability.

Raspberries

• Mexican quality has been good
• Baja stocks have excellent quality as well
• Watsonville’s number have increased with excellent quality
• Expect markets to remain steady

Blueberries

Mexico

• High temperatures persist, with some reaching 95 degrees
• Volume is past its peak
• Quality is fair
• Expect pricing to ease

Pacific Northwest

• Harvesting has begun; quality is excellent
• Production is in full swing in Hermiston, Oregon, while growers in British Columbia are starting their fifth week
• Quality is excellent
• Expect markets to ease

Peru

• First offshore to arrive this weekend
• We are still weeks away from consistent shipments
• Quality has been reported as good

Blackberries

Mexico

• Quality issues are being reported, such as leaky berries, due to recent heat and rain
• Growers are pruning plants; numbers should rebound in September

Watsonville

• Quality is great, size is large, and flavor is sweet
• Volume has increased, lowering pricing
• Expect this market to slowly decrease

Markon First Crop (MFC) Potatoes are available in Idaho and Washington. Markets are rising; demand is active as storage crops wind down. Markon recommends ordering for quick turns and keeping inventory tight due to shorter shelf life. Advanced lead time is encouraged.

Idaho

• Storage crop MFC Burbank Potatoes are being shipped
• Burbanks are the sole variety in Idaho; size is leaning heavily to 100-count and smaller as well as No. 2 grade stocks
• Pressure and shoulder bruising are being reported in late-season storage supplies, but overall quality remains strong
• Expect rising markets over the next six weeks; especially in 40- through 70-count sizes
• New crop production will start in the next 10-14 days
  • Western Idaho growers will start shipping limited volume the week of August 10
  • Most of the state will begin production the week of August 17

Washington

• Storage crop MFC Norkotah Potatoes are available
• Demand is strong for all sizes
• Quality is good; pressure bruising in an occasional issue
• Prices are rising
• New crop harvesting will begin next week

Colorado & Wisconsin

• Active demand is limiting availability
• Mixer volume is shipping in all sizes
• Quality is good; pressure bruising is an occasional problem
• Prices continue to rise in both regions
• The Colorado storage season is winding down quickly
  • Supplies will be extremely limited through August
  • New crop stocks are expected to start shipping in early September
• Wisconsin new crop harvesting will begin in mid-August

Markon First Crop (MFC) Red and Yellow Potatoes are available in Idaho and Wisconsin. Availability is increasing as multiple regions are harvesting new crop potatoes. Markets will decline as the season progresses into August.

Idaho

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available
• Red storage supplies are limited as the season winds down; new crop red harvests are expected to start in mid-August
• New crop yellow potatoes are now available with improved quality and lower pricing
• Overall quality is very good
• Markets are inching down

Wisconsin

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available
• Expect excellent quality to start the season for both red and yellow supplies
• A-size potatoes dominate early shipments
• Volume is ramping up, easing prices

Texas

• Red and yellow production will continue through August
• Quality is excellent; skinning is minimal
• Markets are stable but expected to slowly decline

New crop regions

• Washington and Minnesota production has begun
• Supplies are sufficient
• Quality is very good
• Pricing will decline as supplies increase

Upcoming Regions

• Colorado harvests will start in early September
• The Canadian season will start by mid-September
• North Dakota production will follow in early October

Tomato markets are steady; growers are harvesting ample supplies in multiple regions. California and Baja growers report a wide variety of sizes on the market; new regional production is helping maintain availability.

Rounds

• East Coast
  • Production is steady in Virginia
  • Northeast harvests are underway; supplies are sufficient
  • Tennessee yields are abundant
  • Midwest production is slowly getting underway
  • Overall quality is good
• Mexico
  • Baja growers are shipping steady supplies; large sizes are the most plentiful
  • Volume ranges from low to moderate in Central Mexico; increases are expected in the next 10 days as new crop fields are harvested
  • Overall quality is good
• California
  • San Joaquin Valley is shipping abundant stocks
  • Large sizes are most common
  • Quality is strong
• Markets are expected to remain steady as new crop volume increases in Tennessee and Central Mexico

Romas

• East Coast
  • Production is steady out of Tennessee and North Carolina
  • Northeastern production is underway; yields are sufficient
  • Volume is slightly above average despite some rain interruptions
  • Quality is best in large sizes, but adequate across all sizes
• Mexico
  • Baja volume remains steady, although some early-start growers are wrapping up their season
  • Central Mexico is shipping steady volume from Jalisco, Nuevo León, and San Luis Potosí
  • Large sizes are most prevalent
• California
  • San Joaquin Valley yields are above average with consistent availability
  • Fruit is clean; extra-large sizes dominate supplies
  • Overall quality is good

Grape and Cherry

• East Coast
  • Virginia is maintaining steady volume
  • Supply is meeting demand
  • Quality is stabilizing and should support great availability over the next few weeks
• Mexico
  • Central Mexico has steady but modest grape tomato volume
  • Baja fields will maintain consistent production into August
  • Markets are expected to remain balanced