Market Outlook

Prices are expected to remain mostly steady through month-end with little to move the needle in either direction. The upcoming holidays should support solid retail demand, though foodservice continues to lag.

Prices look poised to remain rangebound in the coming weeks largely aligning with seasonal trends. Grilling demand is providing a steady floor, and buyers shouldn’t expect much relief with premium beef values still historically elevated.

Prices continue to hold above year-ago levels but remain range-bound near term, consistent with seasonal norms. Retail featuring remains aggressive, higher-end foodservice demand is firm, and tight supplies leave little room for values to soften.

Prices are expected to firm through mid-month, following the familiar seasonal script. Supply remains constrained and both retail and foodservice buyers are competing for available product, keeping the overall market tone constructive.

Prices have taken on a more balanced tone, with domestic buyers reluctant to push values much higher, pointing to a range-bound market into July.

Prices appear to be stabilizing after a period of upward movement driven by tighter beef supplies and strong seasonal retail demand. Resistance at higher levels is expected to slow the market’s momentum and keep trade more sideways in the months ahead.

Prices appear to be finding their footing after a sharp selloff, with buyers having stepped back from recent highs and shifted attention toward other beef items. The market should settle into a steadier range as conditions normalize.

Prices are expected to take on a softer, more measured tone as June progresses, moving on their own fundamentals rather than seasonal trends. Buyer resistance has been building since May’s push higher, and that pushback should keep another meaningful move upward in check.

Prices should hold steady into July, consistent with the typical seasonal path. The recent pullback has made current levels more attractive, offering buyers a window to build positions ahead of any summer demand pickup.

Prices are expected to stay firm and well above both year-ago and five-year averages as summer grilling demand builds. Consumer appetite for burgers and quality ground beef shows no sign of easing, keeping values elevated in the weeks ahead.

Prices should continue to find support into the Fourth of July holiday, with lean trimmings values providing a solid floor. Retail demand has been strengthening, and that momentum should keep the market tone constructive through the summer months.

Market conditions for the WOG complex remain generally consistent with earlier assessments. Small and heavy birds are holding steady at current market levels. Mid‑sized categories continue to face fully adequate supply and moderate spot demand from retail and cutting operations. As a result, slight downward adjustments are occurring when necessary.

Jumbo and medium boneless breast meat remains steady, with buyers able to cover needs without difficulty. Supply is generally adequate. Select‑sized breast meat continues to clear well, with supply rated as barely adequate to short, and is considered at least steady. Jumbo tenders are encountering downward pressure, with buyers remaining cost‑focused. Medium tenders also show slight softening and are rated as barely steady.

Jumbo and small wings remain stable at current market levels. Medium wings show signs of softening demand and fully adequate supply, resulting in an overall steady to slightly weaker tone.

Bone‑in dark meat items continue to trade within a stable range. Buyers remain cautious due to recent slowdowns in deboning demand. Fresh legs, leg quarters, drums, and thighs are held firmly by sellers at full market value. Fresh thigh meat remains steady, supported by adequate supply and fair demand from further processors and retail channels. Frozen thigh meat remains unchanged. Leg meat is balanced, with no significant market changes noted.

The frozen whole bird market remains largely unchanged. Suppliers are not actively pushing product, and spot availability is limited, leaving buyers with few alternatives. While some buyer resistance is noted due to historically elevated values, the limited supply has prevented any meaningful market shift. Breast sizes serving both consumer and institutional channels remain tight but continue to move through normal distribution without disruption.

Raw material values continue to trend lower with no indication of near‑term improvement. Buyers of fresh and frozen breast meat remain conservative, purchasing only what is immediately needed as demand remains subdued and inventories build. Softer activity in export channels is adding additional pressure. Movement is occurring, but volumes remain below typical seasonal expectations.

Prices appear to have stabilized after a significant seasonal decline. The improved market level is drawing renewed interest from both retail and foodservice buyers, with momentum building ahead of the Fourth of July.

Prices are expected to edge higher over the coming weeks, consistent with the seasonal tendency for loin values to firm as summer approaches. Retailers have been leaning into loin features more aggressively, which is helping to absorb available supply and providing a firmer foundation for the market.

Prices have taken on a more neutral tone, with summer grilling demand and the holiday calendar limiting downside, though additional seasonal pressure is expected heading into July.

Prices appear to have peaked but should remain supported in the coming weeks, tracking normal seasonal patterns as grilling and smoking demand stays strong. Tightening supplies and growing export interest add further support to the market.

Prices are expected to hold near current levels heading into July, following the typical seasonal pattern for this time of year. Bone-in ham exports remain a bright spot, with Mexico absorbing shipments at a solid pace, while boneless ham is moving more slowly on the domestic side as buyer demand stays relatively subdued.

MMPA‑related uncertainty continues. Pricing remains high but stable, with potential for upward pressure.

The white shrimp market remains generally stable. Lower inbound costs from India are offsetting higher costs from Central America. Pricing is expected to remain steady to slightly lower, with fuel costs for sea freight limiting further reductions.

The black tiger shrimp market is stable overall, with some softening noted on headless shell‑on and smaller sizes. Pricing is expected to remain steady to slightly lower, with sea freight fuel costs preventing additional cost relief.

Pricing remains firm to slightly higher heading into Lent. Large sizes (U10–U8) continue to be tight to unavailable due to MMPA restrictions affecting key harvest areas.

The warm water lobster market has stabilized, with some softening in larger sizes. High‑volume sizes (5–8 oz) remain stable and are showing signs of upward pressure as supply tightens.

The market has stabilized at elevated levels, with tight supplies across all sizes.

Live cold water lobster pricing remains stable at elevated levels, with tight availability across all sizes.

Lobster meat remains stable at elevated levels, with tight supplies across all sizes.

Canadian snow crab is trending upward after reaching a seasonal low in May. Supply is expected to remain tight and costly during the off‑season. Some limited opportunities may emerge in September if inventories build.

Pricing has leveled off amid the continued absence of Russian product. Some sizes remain limited, but overall availability is adequate.

Pricing remains stable, though several producing countries are experiencing quality and consistency challenges.

The market remains stable, with no significant changes expected in the near‑term outlook.

The market has leveled off and remains stable. Seasonal cost declines have not yet materialized, though opportunities continue to be monitored.

The market remains stable with no seasonal cost relief observed to date. Conditions continue to be monitored for potential opportunities.

Fresh salmon pricing remains stable. Seasonal declines have not yet appeared, though the market is being monitored for potential shifts.

Supply from Asia remains stable. Supply from South and Central America continues to be strained and remains a concern.

The market remains stable, with no significant changes expected in the near‑term forecast.

The scallop market remains firm, though some sizes have softened in demand recently. Quotas remain significantly lower than last year, suggesting any cost relief may be temporary.

Pricing continues to rise as global availability remains constrained. Key sizes and cuts are being allocated across major suppliers.

The season has ended with supply reaching only about 20% of expectations. Pricing and availability are expected to remain elevated until the B‑season begins in August or September.

The pollock market remains stable, with no significant changes expected in the near‑term outlook.

The season is fully underway. While boat pricing has eased slightly from the opener, overall pricing remains historically high, influenced largely by fuel costs.

Milk production remains impressive while warming temperatures across the country are bringing an end to the spring flush in the North. US milk production report showed a larger than expected increase in April, jumping 2.7% YOY as another 24k head were added this month from the initial March reports. This is the largest US herd since 1992 and is keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, strong milk fat tests have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market. Overall supplies remain comfortable, while increased demand has kept them from becoming burdensome.

The butter is well supported off its May lows, but struggling to push higher in the face of strong production. Impressive milk output so far this year has helped keep butter churns full and running hard. This has been magnified by the strong butterfat within the milk, pushing plenty of cream onto the market. The USDA confirmed the elevated production levels as updated data showed April butter output up 4.5% from the prior year. However, the cheaper prices earlier this year did support better domestic and global demand, keeping US cold storage levels limited and -8.5% YOY (April).

The block cheese market put in fresh new lows this past week, but struggling to push lower after trading back to its lowest levels since February as recent reports suggest plentiful supplies and less optimistic demand prospects.  With plenty of milk coming to market, cheese production is expected to remain near its record highs and keep comfortable amounts of product coming to market.  The USDA’s Cold Storage report showed another healthy increase in stocks from March, with all cheese stocks for April coming in only 0.9% lower YOY and American cheese stocks -1.4% YOY. Updated cheese production was a bit of a mixed bag, with overall output noting continued YOY growth of 1.7% in April while American and Cheddar output remained lower than the prior year (-1.2% and -3.5% respectively). Exports notched another record in April, while domestic demand has been less impressive.

The shell egg markets are in a state of flux as the market searches for balance into what is normally the weakest time of year. Renewed stockpiling interest has supported eggs off the multi-year lows set the earlier in the month, but those rallies ran out of steam last week as buyers moved to the sidelines. The markets appear to be finding a better supply/demand balance, with reported trading ranges tracking closer with reported values vs. larger discounts seen in April. Even as we move into the slower spring/summer demand period, prices should struggle to retest the recent lows as deteriorating producer margins trim flock sizes in the US. Overall flocks are still more than adequate as updated monthly flock data showed the US table egg laying flock as of May 1st at 306.89 million head, down a seasonally small 360k head from last month and still +3.8% YOY. Updated cage free layers for May showed some growth as flocks were 710k head larger than the prior month as the historically small premium to conventional eggs continues to driver slower cage free conversion efforts.

Soybean oil futures pulled back from their contract highs set last week, but have struggled on moves back towards the May lows. The market continues to be influenced by the on again off again comments surrounding any sort of a US – Iran agreement while the supportive biofuel mandates will keep some level of order interest beneath the market. Current prices are starting to encourage imports, and prices will need to stay firm to help solve the 2026 biofuel policy. Domestic spot crude and refined soybean oil basis offers remain firm through Q3 as crushers look for tighter stocks ahead.

The July canola seed futures is following the path of the soybean oil market, making a new high for the move last week before working lower. Above-normal temperatures and dryness across the Canadian prairies are raising early stress concerns for spring crops, helping to support canola values. Canada has exported 7.4 million tons of canola for their season to date, compared to 8.5 million tons shipped a year ago at this time. The RBD canola oil basis offers remain very firm as demand from the U.S. remains strong.

The spot palm oil futures are steady this week, helping to narrow the discount to soybean oil on the global cash market. India’s SEA called the country’s May palm oil imports 551,000 tons, up 7% from April, while soybean oil imports were 497,000 tons, up 38%, and sun oil imports were 294,000 tons, down 32%, with total edible oil imports coming in at 1.34 million tons, up 3% on the month.

East Coast green bell pepper production has slowed over the weekend, causing an upswing in the market. California green bells are in full production in the San Joaquin Valley. Markon First Crop (MFC) and Markon Essentials (ESS) Green and Red Bell Peppers are available.

Green Bells

• California’s San Joaquin Valley, the Bakersfield growing region, is in full production
  • Quality is very good
  • All sizes and grades are available
• Central Mexico has new summer crops in the state of Coahuila beginning this week
• South Georgia production slowed over the weekend due to recent rains; quality is mixed
• The North Carolina season will begin in 7 to 10 days
• Expect slightly higher markets due to increased demand

Red Bells

• California desert volume is moderate
  • Overall quality is very good as growers are starting the first picks of the last fields
  • The transition to Bakersfield will occur on June 29, possibly straining supply levels at that time
• Stocks are limited in South Georgia
• Canadian greenhouses have increased production
• Expect steady prices over the next week, then an upward trend in late June

Broccoli markets are expected to climb through June as industry supplies are tightening. MFC Broccoli is available in Salinas.

Salinas/Santa Maria

• Volume will fall for the second half of June
• Higher-than-average temperatures in Salinas are forecast through the weekend
• Quality ranges from average to good
  • Some smaller heads are being reported
  • Yellow beading is minimal
• Expect markets to inch up through late June

East Coast

• The Indiana season is underway
• Production will start in Maine and Canada in July
• Harvesting has ended in the Carolinas
• The New Jersey season will start in mid-July

Central Mexico (into South Texas)

• Quality is expected to deteriorate further in the coming weeks
• Weather challenges, including rain, storms, and heat fluctuations, are impacting quality
• Hollow core and pin rot are becoming more prevalent
• Markon Best Available Broccoli and packer label are being shipped

It’s peak California strawberry season. Supplies are ample, quality is excellent, and size is consistent due to ideal growing conditions. Expect weak prices.

Salinas/Watsonville

• MFC Strawberries are available
• Size is large; counts average 12 to 14 berries per 1-pound clamshell
• Quality is good; occasional issues include bruising and white shoulders

Santa Maria

• Overall quality is good; some bruising and white shoulders have been reported
• Size ranges from small-medium to medium, averaging 18 to 22 berries per 1-pound clamshell
• Maintaining the cold chain is vital for shelf-life; Markon recommends ordering for quick turns
• The majority of strawberries are going to the frozen market due to the abundance of supplies

Expect extremely limited cantaloupe supplies for the next three weeks. MFC Cantaloupe Melons and Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Cantaloupe Chunks are sporadic; packer label will be shipped as needed.

Arizona-California Desert Region

• Cantaloupe production, regardless of size, will be critically low until growers transition to new growing regions in July
• Some suppliers have issued Force Majeure on existing contracts
• Fields have been hit by unprecedented disease pressure this season; the warm winter has led to an increase in whitefly, which harms the plants’ ability to photosynthesize
• Markets will rise through the next few weeks as demand has rapidly outpaced supply

San Joaquin Valley, California

• The harvesting transition to new crop supplies will in begin early July
• Initial volume will be modest, but yields will ramp up quickly

Honeydew

• Honeydew supplies are adequate, which has kept pricing lower, but supplies are also diminishing

MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available in Idaho. Yellow potato prices are elevated; supplies are limited. Red potato markets are holding steady. Upcoming crop transitions will cause market volatility, but quality will improve over the next couple of months.

Idaho

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available
• Red storage supplies are ample
• Yellow storage stocks will be depleted by next week; California supplies will be transferred to supplement orders
• Overall quality is good
  • Reds are exhibiting excellent internal quality with strong color and smooth skins
  • Yellow potatoes may possess late-season storage issues (pressure bruising and lenticels)
• Yellow prices are higher due to strong demand

California

• Red and yellow production continues out of Bakersfield
  • All sizes are available
  • Quality is good
  • The season will wind down in late June
• Stockton supplies will start shipping in early July
  • Acreage is down this year
  • Expect tight supplies and high markets by late July

• Red prices are steady; yellow markets are slightly higher

Arizona

• Red and yellow supplies are sufficient

• • Red color is light pink
  • Minimal skinning is being reported
• Markets are holding steady

Washington

• Red and yellow yields are average
• Late-season storage quality is fair, with reports of pressure bruising and lenticels
• Pricing continues to rise

Florida

• Harvesting will wrap up in Northern Florida next week; storage supplies will ship through mid-July
• Yields are sufficient for both colors, but demand is active for yellows
• Quality is good
  • Red color is light pink
  • Lenticels are occasional issues in yellow supplies
• Markets are stable, but red prices may climb as the season winds down

Upcoming regions

• The North Carolina season will start in late June
• Production will begin in Texas and Virginia in early July