Market Outlook

Prices are set to trade steady to higher through Labor Day before trending gradually higher into the holiday season, with the typical seasonal dip in Choice beef grades adding further near-term supply constraints.

Prices are expected to soften through month-end, with easing consumer demand for higher-value beef cuts driving the downward trend, even as some buyers look to take advantage of lower levels to cover needs.

Prices are set to maintain a neutral tone into August, consistent with seasonal norms, as Tenderloin demand follows its typical seasonal softening trend amid growing consumer spending caution.

Prices have taken on a firmer tone as buyers secure product ahead of increased Labor Day grilling demand; however, upside is likely limited as foodservice demand remains moderate at best.

Prices are expected to remain under seasonal pressure through early August, as buyers gravitate toward more competitively priced alternatives to higher-cost beef cuts. Available supply remains more than adequate and may contribute to further price easing.

Prices are projected to maintain a firm tone in the coming weeks, as moderate foodservice demand is more than offset by increased buying activity in preparation for Labor Day.

Prices are expected to maintain a weak tone heading into August, consistent with typical seasonal patterns. Moderate foodservice demand and ample load availability will keep downward pressure on prices.

Prices are set to take on a more neutral tone over the next several weeks, counter to seasonal norms, as retail buying interest picks up.

Prices are expected to hold steady over the coming weeks, consistent with typical seasonal trends. Although buyers are likely to begin building inventory ahead of September, ample supply should be sufficient to offset any meaningful upward price pressure.

Prices will remain elevated in the coming weeks, aided by increased buying activity ahead of Labor Day, with consumers still trading down from higher-priced beef items.

Prices are expected to take on a more balanced tone after the recent pullback, aligning with seasonal trends. Retail demand should see a solid uptick in the coming weeks with the reemergence of grilling demand ahead of Labor Day.

The WOG complex closes the week in a generally steady position. Movement remains consistent, although buyer participation continues to vary by weight range, region, and end-use channel. Freight dynamics remain a key factor, contributing to differences between FOB and delivered market conditions in some areas. Despite these variations, available supplies are generally aligned with current demand. Most weight categories are entering the weekend in a balanced position, with overall market fundamentals showing little change from recent trends.

Breasts and front halves are showing a more balanced tone as routine business activity provides improved support, though some excess supply remains in certain areas. Jumbo conventional boneless breasts continue to be offered at firmer asking levels, but buyer acceptance remains mixed. Purchasing activity ranges from active to moderate, depending on individual needs and market conditions. Pressure on NAE boneless breast offerings has eased, although market participants report limited differentiation between conventional and NAE values as buyers remain cautious regarding premiums. Tenders continue to present challenges for sellers, though the aggressive discounting seen earlier has become less common. In some negotiations, asking levels have begun to firm. While discounting remains present across portions of the market, buyers continue to focus primarily on near-term requirements rather than building inventory. Overall, demand remains measured, with purchasing decisions driven largely by immediate needs.

Wing conditions also remain uneven. Party wing sellers continue to show some flexibility in negotiations, while whole wings are generally moving without much difficulty. The ability or inability to pack frozen remains a key factor in seller availability.

Back half market conditions remain relatively stable. Bone-in items continue to move at a consistent pace, with demand generally aligned with available supply. Thigh meat remains somewhat mixed, though opportunities to secure product at significant discounts have become less common as buying activity continues to improve. Transactional activity still varies by account, region, and program requirements, preventing a fully consistent market tone from developing. Leg meat remains steady overall, with current availability appearing sufficient to meet prevailing demand.

Buyers in the frozen whole turkey market continue to report difficulty securing production, as available offerings remain extremely limited and are being marketed with confidence. At the same time, attention is increasingly shifting toward the placement of fresh whole birds ahead of upcoming seasonal needs. Supplies of both consumer-sized and institutional breast meat remain tight, with availability ranging from barely adequate to below current requirements. As a result, market conditions for these items continue to reflect a firmly balanced supply-demand environment.

Fresh and frozen breast meat are attracting increased interest from both domestic and export buyers. Available production is becoming less visible on the spot market, contributing to a more supportive demand environment. Tenders, meanwhile, remain relatively quiet, with market activity largely unchanged and little movement in either direction. Demand for thigh meat continues to be somewhat subdued, although the market is showing signs of searching for firmer footing. Similar conditions are being reported for ground breast trim, scapula meat, and ground wing meat, where demand remains measured and market sentiment generally steady. MST demand remains modest, with both fresh and frozen offerings continuing to move in line with current requirements and overall market conditions remaining stable.

Prices are expected to remain firm into August, consistent with typical seasonal patterns. Retail demand is anticipated to remain adequate in the near term, while supplies have tightened considerably following packer downtime due to maintenance and operational issues.

Prices are set to trade steady to lower, bucking typical seasonal trends, as adequate supplies combine with weak retail demand and reduced exports to weigh on the market.

Prices are anticipated to ease into August, consistent with typical seasonal patterns. Retail demand for ribs is expected to soften as consumer preferences continue to shift toward other pork cuts.

Prices are expected to maintain a softer tone through the end of August, bucking the typical seasonal pattern in which values tend to hold relatively steady. Retail demand for boneless butts remains sluggish despite recent price declines.

Prices have taken on a weaker tone as product availability outpaces buying interest. Downside is likely limited, however, as Mexican export demand for bone-in hams remains firm and retail interest in boneless hams for lunchmeat grows ahead of the back-to-school season.

White shrimp market remains stable overall, driven by lower inbound product price from India offsetting higher costs of product out of central America. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention.

Black shrimp market remains stable overall, with some lower pricing noted on Headless shell on and smaller sizes. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention

Pricing remains firm, large sizes (U10-U8) remain very tight to unavailable due to MMPA restrictions on key catch areas for these sizes.

Warm water lobster has stabilized with some lower pricing offers presenting in larger sizes. High volume sizes (5-8oz) remain stable and is showing signs of increase as supply tightens.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Canadian Snow crab has started trending north from the bottom of the market in May expect a tight and expensive supply in off season. There may be some deals to be had in September if suppliers get backed up but that currently seems unlikely.

Prices have leveled off with the continued lack of Russian product in the market, some sizes remain scarce but product is available.

Prices remain stable at current levels, several countries are experiencing quality and consistency issues.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

Salmon market has leveled off and remains stable at current rates, we are not seeing the seasonally expected decline in COG’s as of yet but are actively reviewing for opportunities.

Salmon market has leveled off and remains stable at current rates, we are not seeing the seasonally expected decline in COG’s as of yet but are actively reviewing for opportunities.

Salmon market has leveled off and remains stable at current rates, we are not seeing the seasonally expected decline in COG’s as of yet but are actively reviewing for opportunities.

Supply remains stable out of Asia, South and Central American supply remains strained and continues to be an issue.

Market to slightly increase in coming weeks as processors experience higher labor and fuel costs.

Scallops remain firm with smaller sizes softening in demand in recent weeks, quotas remain in place at much lower levels than last year so anticipate any cost relief to be temporary. Quarterly scallop pricing to refresh next week, will see a slight increase in pricing.

Prices continue to rise as availability remains strained globally, key sizes and cuts are being allocated across all major suppliers.

Pacific cod season has ended and supply is about 20% of expectation – supply and pricing is expected to be very high at least until B season kicks off in August/September. We have secured enough cod to get us to the next season, expect pricing to continue to rise by as much as 20%.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

MMPA is still an unknown – pricing remains high but stable.

Season is in full swing, boat pricing is down slightly from the opener but prices remain at record levels – predominant factor is fuel prices.

Milk production remains impressive while summer temperatures are seasonally reducing milk output. Some regional plant downtimes have kept milk more available nearby, but overall availability has tightened. Seasonally lower summer output and upcoming bottling demand for schools should limit further weakness. US milk production report showed yet another large increase in June, jumping 2.3% YOY as another 19k head were added this month from the May report. This is the largest US herd in 33 years and is keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, strong milk fat tests have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market. Overall supplies remain comfortable, but cream multiples have been increasing.

The domestic butter is stabilizing above its recent lows as buying interest picks back up. Overall butter demand continues to impress, increasing almost 5% from the prior year during the first half of the year. However, even when combined with record exports, the record production pace has kept the market comfortable. Strong milk output and increased milkfat has kept cream available and is keeping plenty of butter coming to market. Updated June figures showed butter inventories seasonally declining from May, and coming in 6.6% below year ago levels. Despite tighter stocks, the availability of cream has continued to remove supply concerns for the upcoming fall baking season. This slightly lower prices so far this week have again been met with a surge in booking interest. When combined with seasonal declines in milk and cream into the summer months, prices are stabilizing.

The domestic cheese markets rejected their highs this past week and are trading back into the middle of their recent range. Reduced milk output from higher temperatures is limiting spot availability of milk nearby, but the recent run up in US values has eroded the competitive advantage vs. other major exporters and will start to limit our ability to maintain the current record export pace seen so far this year.  The US was able to export a record amount of cheese in June, but that has not been enough to offset the soft domestic demand. The USDA’s Cold Storage report showed the largest May to June increase in a decade, with all cheese stocks for June coming in 0.8% lower YOY and American cheese stocks -1.7% YOY. Updated production data for June also showed output increasing 1.1%, while American and Cheddar output increased by 1.1% and 1.0% respectively. If more milk continues to shift over into American styles, and domestic interest remains slow, rallies will be difficult for the market to sustain.

The domestic shell egg market ran out of momentum last week as buyers moved to the sidelines following the more than 100% rally in California shell egg prices since June. Strong contracting during this rally has reduced spot market demand, and pushing the egg market into a balanced position and limiting additional upside in the short term. Both conventional and cage free shell egg markets have shifted back into better balance during what is normally the weakest time of year. Even though we are in the summer doldrums for demand, prices should struggle to retest the spring lows as aggressive retail prices and promotional offerings support consumer egg purchases. The USDA’s Chickens and Eggs report showed table egg laying flocks on July 1st were only 324k head higher than the prior month, but remain 5% higher than the prior year. Cage free eggs are back trading even with the conventional markets as supplies have stabilized and need to compete on value. Updated cage free layers for June showed further growth as flocks were 1.5 million head larger than the prior month and keeping pace with the overall growth seen on conventional side. The historically small premium to conventional eggs remains a headwind to further cage free conversion efforts.

Ongoing record crush expectations and the increase imports of used cooking oil and tallow have kept soybean oil rangebound and well off its recent highs. Despite the back and forth between the US and Iran, energy prices have been consolidating and limiting the spill over impact on SBO values. The supportive biofuel mandates will keep some level of order interest beneath the market from end users, while SBO continues to watch global vegoils markets. Domestic soybean oil basis offers were mostly steady again last week with end users well covered out into Q4.

Canola seed futures are higher this week amid increased competition between crushers and exporters. The USDA reported June crude canola oil output was up 21 percent from May 2026 and up 24 percent from June 2025. Canola once refined oil production, at 154 million pounds during June 2026, was up 12 percent from May 2026 and up 3 percent from June 2025. RBD canola oil basis offers were steady to slightly lower last week.

The palm oil futures worked higher this past week as fears around El Nino this upcoming season are limiting downside opportunity. A Reuters survey has the average guess for Malaysian July palm oil production at 1.76 million metric tons, up 7.4% from June, with the stock’s average guess at 2.61 million metric tons, up 2.6% from the month previous. AmSpec had Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1st through the 10th up over 9% from the same period in July.

Avocado harvest out of the Mexico state of Michoacan has been suspended for the day by the APEAM (Association of Avocado Exporting Producers and Packers of Mexico) due to a security threat. This is a rapidly evolving situation; Markon will continue to monitor developments and provide updates as additional information becomes available.

Mexico

• All USDA inspection personnel have been withdrawn, preventing avocado packing and shipments from Michoacan to the United States
• Michoacan supplies approximately 75-80% of the avocados imported into the U.S from Mexico
• There is currently enough product inventory available to supply in the near term if operations resume quickly
• Shipment delays and potential avocado shortages could develop if the suspension continues for an extended period

Broccoli market activity accelerated late last week as demand strengthened significantly. Supplies have tightened, and markets are expected to trend higher this week. Markon First Crop (MFC) Broccoli is available in Salinas, California.

• Demand increased during the latter half of last week, resulting in tighter supplies and rising prices
• California yields remain below normal; current demand is exceeding available supply
• California quality ranges from average to good
• Diamondback moth pressure has been observed but is not a significant concern at this time
• Continued high temperatures may increase diamondback activity, discoloration, and dehydration
• Maine production is expected to ramp up this week, which should provide some relief
• Mexican broccoli supplies into South Texas are adequate; however, quality ranges from average to poor; reported defects include cat-eye, browning, and widespread hollow core
• Expect prices to increase throughout the week

Markets will remain low for the next several weeks as abundant supplies are shipping from the San Joaquin Valley. Markon First Crop (MFC) Cantaloupe and Honeydew are available.

Cantaloupe

• Harvesting is at peak capacity
• Large sizes (9-count and jumbo 9-count) are most plentiful; 15-count melons will remain tighter until second cuts are made
• Quality is great with tight seed cavities and internal sugars hitting 13-16% Brix
• Markets have been inching down due to increasing volume, but will strengthen slightly as supply stabilizes

Honeydew

• Volume has increased
• Five- and jumbo five-count melons are ample, but eight-count fruit is extremely scarce; smaller sizes will become more readily available in a couple of weeks
• Quality is good; sugar levels range from 12-14% Brix
• Prices will remain steady next week; supply is meeting demand

California garlic is harvested from June through August, with some product held in fresh storage before controlled-atmosphere storage is opened for year-round supply. New crop garlic is expected to transition approximately August 9, 2026, and may carry a stronger garlic odor compared to long-term storage product this is currently shipping. Markon members should expect the typical early-season, fresh-run characteristics outlined below in RSS (Ready Set Serve) Peeled Garlic.

• New crop production is expected to start on August 9, 2026
• Fresh-run garlic will differ from storage garlic at this early point in the season
  • Bulbs and cloves may contain more moisture
  • Outer skins may not be fully cured
• Cloves are typically more tender and harder to peel
  • Surface sheen or translucent spots may appear
  • Light discoloration can occur from cracking and peeling
• Subtle moisture may be visible in the bag
• Garlic odor may be stronger in the first several weeks of the season
• Shelf life may be shorter than normal until the crop completes the curing process
• Markon recommends maintaining the cold chain when handling, and increase product turns to maximize early season yields

Cooler temperatures this week are expected to enhance fruit quality by promoting better sizing and firmer skin,

Salinas/Watsonville

• Markon First Crop (MFC) Strawberries are available
• Berry size ranges from medium-large to large; counts average 18 pieces per 1-pound clamshell
• Quality is good; issues include bruising and soft skin
• Past weather issues have crews culling over-ripe berries
• Maintaining the cold chain will be vital for shelf life; Markon recommends ordering for quick turns
• Expect markets to slowly rise

Santa Maria

• Limited harvesting is underway
• Shippers are expecting volume in 2-3 week
• Quality has been good to start

Cauliflower markets strengthened last week due to tighter supplies. Lower yields across California and concerns about quality in key growing regions continue to pressure supply. Expect markets to remain elevated over the next several weeks. Markon Essentials (ESS) Cauliflower is on the market.

Cauliflower

• California yields remain below normal, and current demand is exceeding available supply
• Salinas is experiencing increased demand, and lighter yields are driving the markets higher.
• Diamondback pressure is present but is currently not a significant concern
• Santa Maria is experiencing heavy Diamondback pressure, exacerbated by recent warm weather, reducing yields
• Expect elevated pricing to continue
• Maine production is underway and is expected to increase during the latter half of next week
  • Recent rainfall has delayed harvesting in some areas; production is expected to continue through mid- to late September
• Canadian cauliflower supplies remain strong and are expected to continue into early October

Chilean Mandarins remain in a demand-exceeds-supply situation. Prior heavy rain impacted fruit production in Chile, resulting in limited supplies and rising prices.

• The import season will run through November
• Massive rainstorms have made harvesting a logistical challenge
• Crop yields are significantly below historical averages, creating a supply gap between the Clementine and Tango varieties
• Expect market conditions to remain extremely tight over the next three weeks

Blackberry supplies are improving rapidly, with Watsonville and the Pacific Northwest now contributing harvest volume and helping alleviate recent shortages. Blueberries and raspberries remain in strong supply, offering excellent quality and consistent availability.

Raspberries

• Mexican quality has been good
• Baja stocks have excellent quality as well
• Watsonville’s number have increased with excellent quality
• Expect markets to remain steady

Blueberries

Mexico

• High temperatures persist, with some reaching 95 degrees
• Volume is past its peak
• Quality is fair
• Expect pricing to ease

Pacific Northwest

• Harvesting has begun; quality is excellent
• Production is in full swing in Hermiston, Oregon, while growers in British Columbia are starting their fifth week
• Quality is excellent
• Expect markets to ease

Peru

• First offshore to arrive this weekend
• We are still weeks away from consistent shipments
• Quality has been reported as good

Blackberries

Mexico

• Quality issues are being reported, such as leaky berries, due to recent heat and rain
• Growers are pruning plants; numbers should rebound in September

Watsonville

• Quality is great, size is large, and flavor is sweet
• Volume has increased, lowering pricing
• Expect this market to slowly decrease

Markon First Crop (MFC) Potatoes are available in Idaho and Washington. Markets are rising; demand is active as storage crops wind down. Markon recommends ordering for quick turns and keeping inventory tight due to shorter shelf life. Advanced lead time is encouraged.

Idaho

• Storage crop MFC Burbank Potatoes are being shipped
• Burbanks are the sole variety in Idaho; size is leaning heavily to 100-count and smaller as well as No. 2 grade stocks
• Pressure and shoulder bruising are being reported in late-season storage supplies, but overall quality remains strong
• Expect rising markets over the next six weeks; especially in 40- through 70-count sizes
• New crop production will start in the next 10-14 days
  • Western Idaho growers will start shipping limited volume the week of August 10
  • Most of the state will begin production the week of August 17

Washington

• Storage crop MFC Norkotah Potatoes are available
• Demand is strong for all sizes
• Quality is good; pressure bruising in an occasional issue
• Prices are rising
• New crop harvesting will begin next week

Colorado & Wisconsin

• Active demand is limiting availability
• Mixer volume is shipping in all sizes
• Quality is good; pressure bruising is an occasional problem
• Prices continue to rise in both regions
• The Colorado storage season is winding down quickly
  • Supplies will be extremely limited through August
  • New crop stocks are expected to start shipping in early September
• Wisconsin new crop harvesting will begin in mid-August

Markon First Crop (MFC) Red and Yellow Potatoes are available in Idaho and Wisconsin. Availability is increasing as multiple regions are harvesting new crop potatoes. Markets will decline as the season progresses into August.

Idaho

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available
• Red storage supplies are limited as the season winds down; new crop red harvests are expected to start in mid-August
• New crop yellow potatoes are now available with improved quality and lower pricing
• Overall quality is very good
• Markets are inching down

Wisconsin

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available
• Expect excellent quality to start the season for both red and yellow supplies
• A-size potatoes dominate early shipments
• Volume is ramping up, easing prices

Texas

• Red and yellow production will continue through August
• Quality is excellent; skinning is minimal
• Markets are stable but expected to slowly decline

New crop regions

• Washington and Minnesota production has begun
• Supplies are sufficient
• Quality is very good
• Pricing will decline as supplies increase

Upcoming Regions

• Colorado harvests will start in early September
• The Canadian season will start by mid-September
• North Dakota production will follow in early October

Tomato markets are steady; growers are harvesting ample supplies in multiple regions. California and Baja growers report a wide variety of sizes on the market; new regional production is helping maintain availability.

Rounds

• East Coast
  • Production is steady in Virginia
  • Northeast harvests are underway; supplies are sufficient
  • Tennessee yields are abundant
  • Midwest production is slowly getting underway
  • Overall quality is good
• Mexico
  • Baja growers are shipping steady supplies; large sizes are the most plentiful
  • Volume ranges from low to moderate in Central Mexico; increases are expected in the next 10 days as new crop fields are harvested
  • Overall quality is good
• California
  • San Joaquin Valley is shipping abundant stocks
  • Large sizes are most common
  • Quality is strong
• Markets are expected to remain steady as new crop volume increases in Tennessee and Central Mexico

Romas

• East Coast
  • Production is steady out of Tennessee and North Carolina
  • Northeastern production is underway; yields are sufficient
  • Volume is slightly above average despite some rain interruptions
  • Quality is best in large sizes, but adequate across all sizes
• Mexico
  • Baja volume remains steady, although some early-start growers are wrapping up their season
  • Central Mexico is shipping steady volume from Jalisco, Nuevo León, and San Luis Potosí
  • Large sizes are most prevalent
• California
  • San Joaquin Valley yields are above average with consistent availability
  • Fruit is clean; extra-large sizes dominate supplies
  • Overall quality is good

Grape and Cherry

• East Coast
  • Virginia is maintaining steady volume
  • Supply is meeting demand
  • Quality is stabilizing and should support great availability over the next few weeks
• Mexico
  • Central Mexico has steady but modest grape tomato volume
  • Baja fields will maintain consistent production into August
  • Markets are expected to remain balanced