Market Outlook

Prices are set to remain firm on building year-end buying interest, with strong retail demand and aggressive bidding on limited supplies driving the move amid lower year-over-year beef production.

Prices are defying seasonal norms, trading steady to firm as strips’ strong relative value to other premium beef cuts sustains active buying interest and a new seasonal pattern appears to emerge.

Seasonal factors are expected to provide support to the pork market in the coming months. However, softer retail and foodservice demand may limit the extent of any improvement, resulting in a generally steady to modestly firmer outlook through year-end.

Prices are expected to maintain a weak tone in line with seasonal trends, with some modest support potentially emerging as buyers cover near-term needs ahead of Labor Day, though subdued foodservice demand is likely to limit any meaningful price recovery.

Prices are projected to find mild support as softening retail demand pulled forward August’s typical seasonal decline, with top butts trading at a narrow premium to beef 90% fresh trimmings opening up featuring opportunities at retail and foodservice.

Prices are set to remain firm as active retail buying builds ahead of Labor Day and the Yom Kippur holiday on September 21, with a national QSR brisket promotion adding further underlying support.

Prices are expected to take on more neutral tone in the coming weeks, resisting the typical seasonal pull toward softer values, as lower year-over-year beef production lends underlying support to the market.

Prices are anticipated to hold firm through Labor Day, bucking the typical seasonal tendency toward softer values, as below year-ago beef production continues to provide underlying market support.

Prices are expected trade steady to firm in the coming weeks, diverging from typical September seasonal patterns, as growing demand for inside rounds and moderating beef production continue to underpin values.

Prices are expected to hold firm into September, defying typical seasonal softness, as retail buyers trading down the carcass sustain strong demand for quality ground products like Ground Chuck.

Prices are set to stay supported through Labor Day buying, though the Administration’s move to allow up to 300,000 metric tons of tariff-free ground beef imports over the next 90 days at a mandated 25% discount to current market prices is likely to pressure values lower, with the magnitude of the impact still unclear.

WOG market conditions remain largely unchanged, with adequate production meeting steady buyer interest. While heavier and lighter weight categories continue to move at a consistent pace, the middle-weight segments face some pressure due to readily available supplies. Buyers are generally able to cover near-term needs without difficulty, resulting in a slightly softer tone for those weight ranges. Conditions in the lighter and heavier categories remain stable as the market awaits further direction.

The bone-in breast and front-half complex remains generally steady, with most activity occurring around established market levels. Conditions in the boneless breast market continue to vary by participant, with some reporting balanced supply and demand while others describe a tighter supply environment supporting a firmer tone. Overall, movement remains consistent, and current market conditions continue to support existing expectations.
Tenders remain one of the stronger areas of the complex, attracting ongoing interest from foodservice and distribution channels. Some buyers report difficulty securing their full requirements, while sellers continue to manage limited availability with confidence. Demand remains active, and overall conditions continue to support a favorable market outlook.

Wing market conditions remain mixed. Larger-sized offerings continue to face some pressure as available supplies exceed current demand, while medium and small-sized wings generally move at a more balanced pace. Market sentiment varies among participants, with some reporting manageable inventory levels and steady movement, while others continue to work through more readily available supplies. Overall, conditions remain uneven as supply and demand dynamics differ across the complex.

Turning to the back half of the bird, market conditions remain generally stable. Leg quarters continue to move at a steady pace, while legs remain balanced despite occasional buyer interest in negotiating more favorable terms. Drumsticks are supported by consistent retail and export demand, contributing to a steady market tone. Thigh and leg meat markets remain well-positioned, with some participants reporting supplies ranging from barely adequate to occasionally tight. Overall, demand remains aligned with available production across much of the complex.

Buyers in the frozen whole turkey market continue to report difficulty securing production, as available offerings remain extremely limited and are being marketed with confidence. At the same time, attention is increasingly shifting toward the placement of fresh whole birds ahead of upcoming seasonal needs. Supplies of both consumer-sized and institutional breast meat remain tight, with availability ranging from barely adequate to below current requirements. As a result, market conditions for these items continue to reflect a firmly balanced supply-demand environment.

Fresh and frozen breast meat are attracting increased interest from both domestic and export buyers. Available production is becoming less visible on the spot market, contributing to a more supportive demand environment. Tenders, meanwhile, remain relatively quiet, with market activity largely unchanged and little movement in either direction. Demand for thigh meat continues to be somewhat subdued, although the market is showing signs of searching for firmer footing. Similar conditions are being reported for ground breast trim, scapula meat, and ground wing meat, where demand remains measured and market sentiment generally steady. MST demand remains modest, with both fresh and frozen offerings continuing to move in line with current requirements and overall market conditions remaining stable.

Prices are poised to stabilize on seasonal trends, with subdued retail and foodservice demand offset by improving supply as packer operations normalize following recent maintenance and operational downtime.

Prices are expected to remain soft in the coming weeks, consistent with the typical September seasonal trend. While domestic loin demand should find some support from relative value, available supplies are anticipated to be sufficient to meet buyer requirements.

Prices are expected to soften in September as demand fades following Labor Day, overall pork production increases, and weak export demand.

Prices are set to trade steady to lower over the next several weeks, consistent with typical seasonal patterns. While butts offer compelling value relative to other pork items, overall demand is anticipated to remain restrained.

Prices are expected to stay soft as improved production and weak demand keep supply more than adequate, though back-to-school season and potential improvement in Mexican export demand should provide some underlying support and limit further downside.

White shrimp market remains stable overall, driven by lower inbound product price from India offsetting higher costs of product out of central America. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention. Expecting prices to rise in Q3/4 with new tariffs.

Black shrimp market remains stable overall, with some lower pricing noted on Headless shell on and smaller sizes. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention. expecting prices to rise in Q3/4 with new tariffs.

Pricing remains firm, large sizes (U10-U8) remain very tight to unavailable due to MMPA restrictions on key catch areas for these sizes.

Warm water lobster has stabilized with some lower pricing offers presenting in larger sizes. High volume sizes (5-8oz) remain stable and is showing signs of increase as supply tightens.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Canadian Snow crab has started trending north from the bottom of the market in May expect a tight and expensive supply in off season. There may be some deals to be had in September if suppliers get backed up but that currently seems unlikely.

Prices have leveled off with the continued lack of Russian product in the market, some sizes remain scarce but product is available.

Prices remain stable at current levels, several countries are experiencing quality and consistency issues.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

Salmon market has leveled off and remains stable at current rates, we are not seeing the seasonally expected decline in COG’s as of yet but are actively reviewing for opportunities.

Salmon market has leveled off and remains stable at current rates, we are not seeing the seasonally expected decline in COG’s as of yet but are actively reviewing for opportunities.

Salmon market has leveled off and remains stable at current rates, we are not seeing the seasonally expected decline in COG’s as of yet but are actively reviewing for opportunities.

Supply remains stable out of Asia, South and Central American supply remains strained and continues to be an issue.

Market to slightly increase in coming weeks as processors experience higher labor and fuel costs.

Scallops remain firm with smaller sizes softening in demand in recent weeks, quotas remain in place at much lower levels than last year so anticipate any cost relief to be temporary. Quarterly scallop pricing to refresh next week, will see a slight increase in pricing.

Prices continue to rise as availability remains strained globally, key sizes and cuts are being allocated across all major suppliers.

Pacific cod season has ended and supply is about 20% of expectation – supply and pricing is expected to be very high at least until B season kicks off in August/September. We have secured enough cod to get us to the next season, expect pricing to continue to rise by as much as 20%.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

MMPA is still an unknown – pricing remains high but stable.

Season is in full swing, boat pricing is down slightly from the opener but prices remain at record levels – predominant factor is fuel prices.

Milk production continues to run at record levels despite seasonally tighter availability nearby. The shift to lower summer output and increased bottling demand from schools have created a more competitive situation for fluid supply and is limiting downside. US milk production report showed yet another large increase in July, jumping 2.2% YOY as another 33k head were added from the initial June estimate. This is the largest US herd in 33 years and is keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, strong milk fat tests and protein demand have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market. Overall supplies remain comfortable, but cream multiples have been increasing.

The domestic butter continues to trade back near the lower end of their recent range, but has noted strong demand given historic value and the seasonal bias for prices to rally into early Q4. This continues to support butter prices on breaks, while abundant butterfat has been a huge barrier to higher prices. This ebb and flow each week continues to support the choppy rangebound activity. Updated cold storage levels showed July inventories declining right on pace with the 10-year average from June, although the decline was the smallest since 2020. This puts cold storage levels only 3% lower than last year as we enter the more pronounced inventory drawdowns into Nov/Dec. Record domestic consumption and an extremely competitive export bid are working to clear the excess production coming to market from the record churn pace seen so far this year, however ongoing impressive milk output has kept butter churns full and running hard, requiring aggressive pricing to drive demand.

The domestic block cheese markets are grinding lower after the elevated prices earlier this month shut off additional order interest. Block cheese prices continue to note a rangebound trade, but prices are now pushing back towards the lower end of that range While spot milk has been tightening due to increased demand from bottlers as schools prepare for students to return, and the summer heat lowering overall cow comfort, there was still plenty available this past month for cheese producers. Updated milk production data from the USDA showed that milk output in July jumped 2.2% from prior year levels and the overall herds increased 33k head from the initial June estimates. This should continue to drive strong cheese production as churns have access to fluid milk. This puts the emphasis on export markets to clear additional supplies as domestic demand has been lower YOY in 3 of the past 4 months. The export market remains competitive, which will keep pressure on the domestic market to stay cheap enough to encourage that much needed export demand.

The domestic shell egg market is stabilizing just above the summer lows as renewed order interest emerges. After the run-up in prices during July, buyers (both retail and foodservice) adjusted tactics to just replenish inventories to cover immediate needs, but now with prices again providing historical value, depleted pipelines are starting to be refilled. There are still plenty of eggs coming to market, but the market is again coming into a better balance. The forward outlook has some risk factors that should limit downside, with HPAI concerns starting back up with the fall migration season in September and October, along with the normal increase in retail and foodservice demand into the colder months of the year. Also, the normal seasonal trends would suggest a lift from back to school demand, but that has not yet materialized. Both conventional and cage free shell egg markets remain well supplied, however prices appear cheap enough for the moment.

The soybean oil market failed to take out the July lows this week, prompting another round of buying interest as soybean oil remains competitive as a biofuel feedstock. Prices are still well off their recent highs due to the rumors that the EPA will grant larger than expected Small Refiner Exemptions (SRE’s) and limit the nearby demand from biofuel on soybean oil supply. However, firm diesel fuel prices and the longer term supportive biofuel mandates will keep some order interest beneath the market from end users, along with the limited vegetable oil flows out of the Black Sea. SBO continues to watch global vegetable oil markets as imports are needed to solve the expanded demand from biofuel.

The November canola seed futures are rangebound, following the ongoing vacillations in the soybean oil market. Some profit taking was noted after the recent sharp gains since the beginning of August. The RBD canola oil basis levels were offered mostly steady last week.

The palm oil futures hit a 20-month high last week before retreating this week. The recent rally has been driven by Indonesia’s ambitious B50 biodiesel mandate, tightening global stockpiles forecasted by the USDA to a nine-year low, and production risks from a strengthening El Niño across Southeast Asia. Malaysian palm oil exports for Aug 1-20 were up 5.5% vs. last month, according to a private cargo surveyor.

Asparagus markets continue to strengthen as harvesting transitions and sizing challenges reduce supplies from both Mexico and Peru. Availability is expected to remain limited, particularly for larger sizes, while elevated market conditions persist into September.

Mexico

• Markon First Crop (MFC) Asparagus is available; packer label is being substituted as needed
• The Central Mexico season has roughly one week of production remaining before Baja becomes the primary growing region through year-end; poor weather conditions in Central Mexico reduced yields and created a variety of production and quality challenges
• Baja fields have started earlier than expected, which could provide some near-term relief; however, the accelerated start could limit future supplies in the fall and winter seasons
• Jumbo and extra-large sizes remain in very short supply and are expected to stay limited as fall demand increases
• Quality is fair to good; heat-related seeding, wet/decayed tips, and limp/rubbery spears have been reported
• Expect increased pricing and restricted availability to continue, particularly for jumbo and extra-large sizes, into September

Peru (into South Florida)

• Peruvian supplies continue to face quality challenges following warmer-than-normal growing conditions in northern districts
• Southern Peru fields are opening earlier than anticipated
  • They will serve as the primary production region into late November
  • Domestic demand will rely heavily on supplies from Southern Peru during the fall season
• Warm El Niño weather patterns reduced Peruvian yields and impacted overall quality
  • Early decay, seeding, and dehydration have been reported
  • Production continues to skew heavily toward small and standard sizes
• Expect elevated markets into September as Southern Peru production continues to ramp up

The broccoli market is expected to strengthen as growers anticipate lighter yields next week. MFC Broccoli is available in Salinas, California; Markon Best Available (MBA) is being substituted as needed.

• Demand remains steady, though yields are expected to decline heading into next week
• California production is meeting current demand levels with good overall availability
• Diamondback moth (DBM) pressure remains elevated in some growing areas
• Pin rot incidence is increasing across portions of the Salinas Valley
• Recent moisture and unsettled weather conditions may exacerbate existing quality concerns
• Mexican broccoli crossing through South Texas remains readily available
• Quality concerns include:
  • Severe browning
  • Cat eye
  • Hollow core
• Maine and New York are in full production, supplying East Coast Markets
• Growers are reporting good sizing, color, and shape
• Insect pressure is minimal
• Ohio remains in production and is expected to continue harvesting through next month

Blueberry prices are expected to remain elevated over the next two to four weeks due to declining production in the Pacific Northwest, light early-season volume from Mexico, and limited arrivals from Peru. As the import season begins, demand is expected to exceed available supply throughout September.

Pacific Northwest

• Oregon harvest is nearing completion, with most shippers expected to finish next week
• Washington production is expected to continue for approximately three more weeks
• Quality is generally good, with occasional soft fruit and shrivel being reported
• Markets are expected to strengthen as regional supplies continue to decline

Mexico

• New crop production has started with light harvest volumes
• Supplies are expected to increase over the next three to four weeks
• Quality has been reported as good
• Markets are expected to remain elevated as demand exceeds available supply

Peru

• Import shipments have started arriving, but volume remains limited early in the season
• Quality has been reported as good
• Market activity is expected to be aggressive throughout September as demand outpaces initial arrivals

Cilantro supplies are sufficient to meet current demand; however, markets are trending higher as weather-related quality challenges impact growing regions in California and Central Mexico.

• Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Cilantro is available; packer label is being substituted when necessary
• Supplies remain adequate to support demand in both Salinas and Oxnard, California
• Quality ranges from fair to good
  • Elevated temperatures and humidity in California are contributing to increased insect and disease pressure, along with bolting and seeder development
  • Seasonal rainfall in Central Mexico is causing yellowing, early decay, and reduced shelf-life on imported product
• Mexican imports remain available, though quality has declined due to ongoing monsoonal conditions
• Salinas production is expected to continue into the early fall; desert region harvests will gradually increase over the coming months
• Expect slightly higher markets with intermittent quality issues into the first week of September

Green onion prices continue to strengthen as extreme temperatures impact production in the Mexicali growing region. Elevated markets are expected to continue into early September as heat-related production challenges limit supply. RSS Green Onions are available; packer label is being substituted as needed.

• Temperatures across the Mexicali growing region exceeded 110°F throughout this week
• Extreme heat is accelerating crop maturity, forcing growers to harvest fields earlier than planned
• Younger plantings are also experiencing heat-related stress, which is expected to reduce yields in the coming weeks
• Quality is generally good, though the potential for heat-related defects is growing
• Potential heat-related defects include:
  • Dehydration
  • Discoloration
  • Early decay
  • Tip burn
• Supplies are currently adequate to meet demand but are expected to tighten as production challenges persist
• Expect strong markets and higher pricing into early September

Blueberry supplies are expected to tighten over the next 3-4 weeks as the Pacific Northwest season winds down, Mexico slowly ramps up, and Peru remains limited. Raspberry and blackberry supplies remain favorable, though markets are expected to firm as California production declines.

Blueberries

Mexico

• New crop has started with light production
• Volume is expected to improve in three to four weeks
• Markets are expected to strengthen

Pacific Northwest

• Oregon harvest is nearing completion, with most shippers finishing next week
• Washington production will continue for approximately three more weeks
• Quality remains excellent
• Markets are expected to rise as supplies diminish

Peru

• Shipments are arriving, but September volume will remain limited
• Quality is good
• Market activity is expected to increase during the first few weeks of September

Blackberries

Mexico

• Harvest is beginning with light availability
• Increased volume is expected in three to four weeks

Watsonville

• Quality and flavor remain excellent with large sizing
• Production is declining as the season moves past its peak
• Harvest is expected to continue for another three to four weeks
• Markets are expected to gradually rise

Raspberries

Mexico

• Mexican production remains strong with good quality and availability
• Baja supplies continue to support the demand

California

• Watsonville/Salinas production is past its peak and expected to conclude within three to four weeks
• Supplies remain ample, and markets are expected to stay steady

Fresh-run MFC Onions are available in Idaho, Oregon, Washington, and Utah. New crop harvests are now underway across multiple growing regions; markets are gradually easing as production increases. Quality is good.

Washington

• New crop onion harvests are underway; volume is increasing
• Growers expect to begin loading from storage in mid-October
• Supplies are dominated by medium and jumbo sizes; colossal and super colossal sizes are somewhat limited but improving

Idaho/Oregon

• The Idaho/Oregon fresh run onion season is continuing to ramp up
• Harvests are expected to finish in mid-October as growers begin loading from storage supplies
• Current lots are dominated by medium and jumbo sizes; Colossal and super colossal sizes are limited, commanding higher prices

Utah

• New crop yellow onion harvests have begun in a limited manner; harvests will run through October prior to loading from storage supplies
• Red and white onion harvests will begin the first week of September

Colorado

• Fresh run onion harvests are underway
• Harvests will continue through late September before transitioning to storage supplies

The domestic Valencia crop is experiencing elevated cosmetic defects, while imported oranges are showing increased scarring and lighter color upon arrival. Although these issues are primarily cosmetic and do not affect internal quality, they may impact appearance. Growers are actively sorting affected fruit and shipping the best quality available. Product is experience thrip damage and wind scarring. Thrip damage is cosmetic rind damage caused by citrus thrips feeding on very young fruit shortly after petal fall; scars are often circular or banded and have a corky appearance. Wind scarring typically appears as random scratches or rubbed areas on the side of the fruit.

Domestic

• Early signs of decay, puff/crease, and over maturity are being driven by previous wet weather conditions.
• Fruit may appear sound at packing but can begin breaking down days later
• While these defects can be found in both grades, they are more prevalent in choice grade fruit

Imports

• Inconsistent color upon arrival is caused by several different factors
  • Warm growing conditions
  • Early harvesting
  • Insufficient degreening

MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available in Idaho, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Overall supplies are increasing as production ramps up on new crop in several regions with more areas coming on board soon. Markets are declining in all regions as supplies improve.

Idaho

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available
• New crop supplies are heavy to A-size with smaller sizing improving daily
• Quality is very good

Wisconsin

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available
• A-size potatoes dominate early shipments
• Excellent quality to start the season

Minnesota

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available
• Adequate volume on all sizes across the board
• Outstanding quality on both colors
• Supplies will be available until late September to early October

Washington

• Production of new crop red and yellow continues to ramp up
• Size profile for both red and yellow leaning to larger A-size to start the season
• Quality is good on both colors

Texas

• Season will wrap up at the end of this month
• Good size profile for both colors available
• Quality continues to be excellent

Upcoming Regions

• Colorado harvests will start in early September
• The Canadian season will start by mid-September
• North Dakota production will follow in early October

Strawberries remain in a demand-exceeds-supply situation as the Salinas/Watsonville growing region moves past peak production. Additionally, fruit quality is being impacted by elevated levels of soft skin and bruising, resulting in increased quality concerns across the market.

Watsonville/Salinas

• Quality is fair-good, with minor bruising and soft skin
• Quality defects have come from humid mornings and warm weather and will be present for the remainder of the season
• Soft skin and bruising are being reported
• Fruit may appear acceptable at the time of packing but can break down several days later
• Expect strong demand and high prices through the remainder of the season
• Maintaining the cold chain will be vital for shelf-life; Markon recommends ordering for quick turns

Santa Maria, California 

• Quality is good at the initial start of the season
• Bruising and uneven ripening are the major concerns
• Volume will not be ready for another two to three weeks
• Expect strong demand and high markets through the remainder of the season