Market Outlook

Prices are expected to continue firming as buying interest builds toward year-end. Retail features for conventional bone-in ribeyes last week totaled 967 stores, down from 1,048 the prior week and well below the 1,408 stores recorded in the same week last year.

Prices are defying the typical five-year seasonal softness trend, trading steady to firm as a new seasonal pattern appears to take hold.

Prices are set to trade steady to stronger on seasonal trends, with more moderate retail and foodservice demand.

Prices are set to trade steady to lower on seasonal trends, with modest support possible as buyers cover needs ahead of Labor Day, though limited foodservice demand is likely to cap any meaningful upside.

Prices are expected to find mild support, with August’s typical seasonal decline pulled forward by softening retail demand. Top butts are trading at only a modest premium to beef 90% fresh trimmings, which should open featuring opportunities across retail and foodservice.

Prices are expected to remain firm in the coming months, supported by active retail buying ahead of Labor Day and the Yom Kippur holiday on September 21. A national quick-service promotion featuring brisket-based menu items is expected to provide additional underlying support.

Prices are set to hold a soft tone through August on a strong seasonal weakening trend, as both foodservice and retail buyers shift their attention to other beef items.

Prices are expected to remain fairly balanced through month-end, following typical seasonal price trends. Foodservice demand is likely to remain uneven at best, though tightening supplies should lend a degree of underlying price support.

Prices are expected to remain stable in the coming weeks, in line with typical seasonal patterns. While buyers are likely to begin building inventory ahead of September, sufficient supply should keep any meaningful upward price pressure in check.

Prices are holding strong in August on active retail ground beef buying, while Chinese chuck demand remains limited at 400,000–600,000 pounds per week, well below the several million pounds per week seen before U.S. plant delistings in 2025.

Prices are set to stay supported through Labor Day retailer buying, the season’s last major grilling holiday, with resilient retail demand offsetting softness in foodservice driven by lower transaction counts.

The WOG complex closes the week in a generally steady position. Movement remains consistent, although buyer participation continues to vary by weight range, region, and end-use channel. Freight dynamics remain a key factor, contributing to differences between FOB and delivered market conditions in some areas. Despite these variations, available supplies are generally aligned with current demand. Most weight categories are entering the weekend in a balanced position, with overall market fundamentals showing little change from recent trends.

Breasts and front halves are showing a more balanced tone as routine business activity provides improved support, though some excess supply remains in certain areas. Jumbo conventional boneless breasts continue to be offered at firmer asking levels, but buyer acceptance remains mixed. Purchasing activity ranges from active to moderate, depending on individual needs and market conditions. Pressure on NAE boneless breast offerings has eased, although market participants report limited differentiation between conventional and NAE values as buyers remain cautious regarding premiums. Tenders continue to present challenges for sellers, though the aggressive discounting seen earlier has become less common. In some negotiations, asking levels have begun to firm. While discounting remains present across portions of the market, buyers continue to focus primarily on near-term requirements rather than building inventory. Overall, demand remains measured, with purchasing decisions driven largely by immediate needs.

Wing conditions also remain uneven. Party wing sellers continue to show some flexibility in negotiations, while whole wings are generally moving without much difficulty. The ability or inability to pack frozen remains a key factor in seller availability.

Back half market conditions remain relatively stable. Bone-in items continue to move at a consistent pace, with demand generally aligned with available supply. Thigh meat remains somewhat mixed, though opportunities to secure product at significant discounts have become less common as buying activity continues to improve. Transactional activity still varies by account, region, and program requirements, preventing a fully consistent market tone from developing. Leg meat remains steady overall, with current availability appearing sufficient to meet prevailing demand.

Buyers in the frozen whole turkey market continue to report difficulty securing production, as available offerings remain extremely limited and are being marketed with confidence. At the same time, attention is increasingly shifting toward the placement of fresh whole birds ahead of upcoming seasonal needs. Supplies of both consumer-sized and institutional breast meat remain tight, with availability ranging from barely adequate to below current requirements. As a result, market conditions for these items continue to reflect a firmly balanced supply-demand environment.

Fresh and frozen breast meat are attracting increased interest from both domestic and export buyers. Available production is becoming less visible on the spot market, contributing to a more supportive demand environment. Tenders, meanwhile, remain relatively quiet, with market activity largely unchanged and little movement in either direction. Demand for thigh meat continues to be somewhat subdued, although the market is showing signs of searching for firmer footing. Similar conditions are being reported for ground breast trim, scapula meat, and ground wing meat, where demand remains measured and market sentiment generally steady. MST demand remains modest, with both fresh and frozen offerings continuing to move in line with current requirements and overall market conditions remaining stable.

Prices are expected to find stability in the coming weeks, in line with typical seasonal trends. Retail and foodservice demand is likely to remain subdued near term, while supply is anticipated to improve seasonally as packer operations normalize following recent maintenance and operational downtime.

Prices are defying normal seasonal strength despite active export sales, held back by soft grocery demand. Month-end loin cold storage supplies came in at 32.2 million pounds, 7.2% below the five-year average for the date.

After seven straight weeks of price declines, a steady to higher tone is anticipated as Labor Day demand begins to build, with retail features for regular spareribs rising to 2,065 stores from 1,741 the prior week and 1,632 in the same week last year.

Prices are set to hold steady on grilling season support before firming later in the year as seasonal production declines kick in. Butt roast retail features for the week of August 14 rose to 4,377 stores from 3,306 the prior week and edged above last year’s 4,354.

Prices have firmed moderately in recent weeks as retail demand has begun to gain traction, lending underlying support to the market. Additionally, a notably stronger pull from Mexican and overseas buyers for U.S. hams is expected to provide further price support in the weeks ahead.

White shrimp market remains stable overall, driven by lower inbound product price from India offsetting higher costs of product out of central America. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention. Expecting prices to rise in Q3/4 with new tariffs.

Black shrimp market remains stable overall, with some lower pricing noted on Headless shell on and smaller sizes. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention. expecting prices to rise in Q3/4 with new tariffs.

Pricing remains firm, large sizes (U10-U8) remain very tight to unavailable due to MMPA restrictions on key catch areas for these sizes.

Warm water lobster has stabilized with some lower pricing offers presenting in larger sizes. High volume sizes (5-8oz) remain stable and is showing signs of increase as supply tightens.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Canadian Snow crab has started trending north from the bottom of the market in May expect a tight and expensive supply in off season. There may be some deals to be had in September if suppliers get backed up but that currently seems unlikely.

Prices have leveled off with the continued lack of Russian product in the market, some sizes remain scarce but product is available.

Prices remain stable at current levels, several countries are experiencing quality and consistency issues.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

Salmon market has leveled off and remains stable at current rates, we are not seeing the seasonally expected decline in COG’s as of yet but are actively reviewing for opportunities.

Salmon market has leveled off and remains stable at current rates, we are not seeing the seasonally expected decline in COG’s as of yet but are actively reviewing for opportunities.

Salmon market has leveled off and remains stable at current rates, we are not seeing the seasonally expected decline in COG’s as of yet but are actively reviewing for opportunities.

Supply remains stable out of Asia, South and Central American supply remains strained and continues to be an issue.

Market to slightly increase in coming weeks as processors experience higher labor and fuel costs.

Scallops remain firm with smaller sizes softening in demand in recent weeks, quotas remain in place at much lower levels than last year so anticipate any cost relief to be temporary. Quarterly scallop pricing to refresh next week, will see a slight increase in pricing.

Prices continue to rise as availability remains strained globally, key sizes and cuts are being allocated across all major suppliers.

Pacific cod season has ended and supply is about 20% of expectation – supply and pricing is expected to be very high at least until B season kicks off in August/September. We have secured enough cod to get us to the next season, expect pricing to continue to rise by as much as 20%.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

MMPA is still an unknown – pricing remains high but stable.

Season is in full swing, boat pricing is down slightly from the opener but prices remain at record levels – predominant factor is fuel prices.

Milk production continues to run at record levels despite seasonally tighter availability nearby. The shift to lower summer output and increased bottling demand from schools have created a more competitive situation for fluid supply and is limiting downside. US milk production report showed yet another large increase in June, jumping 2.3% YOY as another 19k head were added this month from the May report. This is the largest US herd in 33 years and is keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, strong milk fat tests have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market. Overall supplies remain comfortable, but cream multiples have been increasing.

The domestic butter is leaking lower this week, but has continued to note very strong order interest on setbacks. Last week saw 121 loads change hand on the CME, supporting the recent record domestic consumption and strong export demand. However, abundant butterfat continues to be a huge barrier to higher prices. This ebb and flow each week continues to support the choppy rangebound activity. Impressive milk output so far this year has helped keep butter churns full and running hard, requiring more aggressive pricing to move product into domestic and export channels. Butter churns produced 8.5% more butter in June than last year and set a new June record. The abundance of butterfat this season has continued to remove supplies concerns for the upcoming fall baking season despite cold storage levels for June 6.6% lower than last year. We are now entering the seasonal drawdown time of year and the tighter supplies are expected to keep some support underneath the market nearby.

The domestic cheese markets are struggling to hold onto their recent highs. While spot milk has been tightening, there was still plenty available this past month for cheese producers. Updated production data showed overall cheese output jumping 1.1% in June vs. the prior year, while American and Cheddar cheese output were up 1.6% and 1% YOY, respectively. This continues to put the emphasis on export markets to clear additional supplies as domestic demand has been lower YOY in 3 of the past 4 months. Retailers are trying to jump start demand with retail ads, which are reportedly up 25% from last years per the USDA. The export market remains competitive, which will keep pressure on the domestic market to stay cheap enough to encourage that much needed export demand. The US saw record cheese exports in June, coming in 24% higher than last year and helping prevent stocks from becoming burdensome.

The domestic shell egg market is shifting back to one of over supply as prices continue to roll over from their recent highs. With buyers (both retail and foodservice) looking to just replenish inventories to cover immediate needs, the lack of stockpiling is keeping plenty of eggs coming to market. Normal seasonal trends would suggest a lift from back to school demand, but that has not yet materialized. Both conventional and cage free shell egg markets have shifted back into over supply, and when combined with the normal soft summer demand, prices have been under pressure. Medium and Jumbo sizes are more balanced and have not seen the same pressure as Large and Extra-Large sizes. Ongoing flock rotations have helped limit some of the excessive amounts of eggs seen in May/June, but reduced heat stress and slower domestic stockpiling on the recent rally are starting to pull some risk premium back out of the market. Updated cage free layers for July showed flocks were 1.4 million head larger than the prior month and keeping pace with the overall growth seen on conventional side. The historically small premium to conventional eggs remains a headwind to further cage free conversion efforts, but this is still the largest cage free flock on record.

Ongoing record crush expectations and the increase imports of used cooking oil and tallow have kept soybean oil rangebound and well off its recent highs. Despite the back and forth between the US and Iran, energy prices have been consolidating and limiting the spill over impact on SBO values. The supportive biofuel mandates will keep some level of order interest beneath the market from end users, along with the limited vegoil flows out of the Black Sea. SBO continues to watch global vegoil markets as imports are needed to solve the expanded demand from biofuel. Domestic soybean oil basis offers were mostly steady again last week with end users well covered out into Q4.

The November canola seed futures remain well supported, posting three-week highs as exporters and domestic crushers stepped up buying to secure tight old-crop supplies ahead of the new crop harvest. RBD canola oil basis levels were firm for the spot position but did show some easing for Q4. Ongoing demand from the US biofuel industry to limit downside.

The forward palm oil futures pushed to 20-month highs this week amid ongoing fears of dryness associated with El Nino for this upcoming season. Despite the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showing end July stocks at a 5-month high, and a record high for the month, prices continue to be supported by concerns over increased biofuel use in Malaysia and Indonesia, as well as El Nino production impacts and tight global vegoil markets.

Markon First Crop (MFC) Broccoli is available in Salinas, California; packer label is being substituted as needed. The broccoli market continues to soften as supplies remain ample and demand has eased. Markets are expected to trend lower into next week.

• Demand has moderated, resulting in lower market prices.
• California production is meeting current demand levels with good overall availability.
• Diamondback moth (DBM) pressure remains elevated in some fields.
• Continued warm temperatures may increase insect activity, contributing to discoloration and dehydration issues.
• Mexican broccoli crossing through South Texas remains readily available. Quality concerns include browning, cat eye, and hollow core.
• Maine and New York are in full production, providing additional supplies to East Coast markets and contributing to overall market availability.
• Ohio is currently in production and is expected to continue harvesting through the next month.
• Field reports indicate good sizing and minimal insect pressure.

Green onion prices are rising due to extreme heat affecting production. Elevated markets and heat-related quality concerns are expected throughout August. Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Green Onions are available; packer label is being substituted as needed.

• Temperatures across the Mexicali growing region are forecast to exceed 110°F throughout this week
• Extreme heat is impacting both mature fields and younger plantings, resulting in lighter yields
• Quality is generally good
• Potential heat-related defects include:
  • Dehydration
  • Discoloration
  • Early decay
  • Tip burn
• Supplies are currently steady but are expected to tighten as production challenges persist
• Expect strong markets and higher pricing through the remainder of August and into early September

Iceberg markets are expected to climb sharply over the next several days as disease pressure, insect activity, and lower yields tighten supplies. Demand is also rebounding, creating rapid upward pricing momentum that is expected to accelerate into next week. Romaine markets are expected to rise in the coming days due to tightening supplies and increasing demand.

Markon First Crop (MFC) Green Leaf, Iceberg, and Romaine Lettuces are available in Salinas, California; Markon Best Available (MBA) is being substituted as necessary.

Salinas/Santa Maria, California

• Iceberg markets are expected to increase aggressively heading into next week as disease and insect pressure worsen
• Demand is rebounding, adding momentum to what is already a rapidly escalating iceberg market
• Romaine and leaf markets are expected to follow with sharply higher pricing anticipated
• Disease challenges, including Impatiens Necrotic Spot Virus (INSV) and Sclerotinia, are becoming more widespread and cutting into yields
• Quality ranges from fair to good; increased pest pressure, internal burn, mildew, and seeder are being reported in many lots
• Markon QA inspectors continue to work closely with grower-shipper partners to secure the best available product

Colorado

• Iceberg harvests are ongoing and are expected to continue through mid-September, weather permitting
• Warm temperatures may accelerate crop development in some fields
• Quality is good, with minimal reports of internal burn or mildew; weights remain overall lighter compared to California product

Michigan

• Harvests of green leaf, iceberg, and romaine will continue through September
• Supplies are steady
• Quality remains favorable despite some minor rainfall

Northeastern Canada and USA

• Harvests of all lettuces are ongoing
• Recent heat and rain have limited production and impacted some quality
• Supplies are expected to rebound next week

Chilean Mandarins have entered a two-week supply gap. Prior heavy rain impacted fruit production, resulting in extremely limited supplies and rising prices.

• The import season will run through November
• Massive rainstorms have made harvesting a logistical challenge
• Expect a complete shortage of up to two weeks before supplies increase
• Crop yields are significantly below historic averages, creating a supply gap between the Clementine and Tango varieties
• Expect market conditions to remain extremely tight over the next two weeks

The domestic Valencia crop is currently experiencing elevated levels of cosmetic scarring due to early season thrip pressure and wind damage. Imported oranges are also showing increased external scarring and lighter-than-normal color upon arrival. While these defects are primarily cosmetic, they may affect the fruit’s overall appearance. Growers are doing their best to keep these defects out of final pack outs. Both domestic and imported oranges are experiencing issues with thrip damage and wind scarring. Thrip damage is cosmetic rind damage caused by citrus thrips feeding on very young fruit shortly after petal fall; scars are often circular or banded and have a corky appearance. Wind scarring typically appears as random scratches or rubbed areas on the side of the fruit.

Domestic

• Early signs of decay are being caused by mechanical damage
  • Bruises, punctures, stem punctures, clipper cuts, and rough handling create entry points for decay organisms
  • Fruit may look fine when packed but begin breaking down days later
• While these defects can be found in both grades, they occur more frequently in Choice grade fruit

Imports

• Inconsistent color upon arrival is caused by several different factors
  • Warm growing conditions
  • Early harvesting
  • Insufficient degreening

Markon First Crop (MFC) Potatoes are available from Idaho and Washington. Potato markets continue to rise as the storage crop comes to an end and new crop has started. Larger size potatoes (40- and 50-count) along with #2 grade are extremely limited. Markon recommends maintaining lean inventories and ordering for short-term needs due to the shorter shelf-life of stored crop potatoes.

Idaho

• Storage crop MFC Burbank Potatoes will finish this week
  • Minimal supplies are left with mixer volume on all sizes
  • Quality is fair to good; majority being culled out for pressure bruise
  • Remaining supply leaning heavily towards 100-count and smaller as well as No. 2 grade stocks
  • New crop Burbanks are expected to return in October after having gone through the sweat to set skins
• New crop MFC Norkotah Potatoes are available
  • Multiple sheds are now running with minimal supplies of 40- and 50-count as well as #2 grade
  • Early lots are exhibiting smaller sizes due to recent heat and smoke cover from fires
    • Smoke cover limited photosynthesis for proper plant growth in early lots; clear skies and cooler temps are forecast this week
    • It is expected that the larger size 40- and 50-count will be scarce over the next three to four weeks until later lots are harvested
  • Overall quality is good
• Markets will remain active
  • Larger size 40- to 70-count will be volatile
  • #2 grade potatoes will remain elevated as new crop potatoes will produce higher grade quality

Washington

• New crop MFC Norkotah Potatoes are available
• Demand is strong for all sizes with mixer volumes available
• Quality is very good
• Prices are increasing due to increasing demand

Wisconsin

• New crop has started
• Large size russets are limited as profile is leaning towards smaller potatoes to start
• Quality is good
• Pricing will continue to rise as demand is active

Colorado

• The Colorado storage season is winding down quickly
  • Supplies will remain extremely tight through August
  • New crop stocks are expected to start shipping in early September
• Quality is fair to good
• Markets are rising as supplies remain limited

The market is inching up; supplies are tightening. The Salinas/Watsonville season is past its peak, with numbers dropping weekly. The Santa Maria/Oxnard fall crop volume remains weeks away, weather permitting

Watsonville/Salinas

• Markon First Crop (MFC) Strawberries are available
• Berry size is medium; counts range from 19 to 24 berries per 1-pound clamshell
• Quality is good, with minor bruising and soft skin
• Maintaining the cold chain will be vital for shelf-life; Markon recommends ordering for quick turns
• Expect strong demand and high prices through the next two weeks

Santa Maria, California 

• Berries size is medium plus; counts range from 15 to 18 berries per 1-pound clamshell
• Quality is good
• Volume levels will be reached in three weeks
• Expect strong demand and elevated markets through next week

As volume shifts from the East Coast, demand will move to California, Mexico, and the Midwest; markets are inching up.

Rounds

• East Coast and Midwest
  • Tennessee is in full production
  • Michigan is ramping up this week
  • Virginia production is paused until September when new fields become available
  • Rain has affected fields across the East Coast; more grading has been required to maintain quality, but no major issues are present
• Mexico
  • Production has fallen below that of U.S. growers
  • Supplies will increase in Baja and Central Mexico in September
  • Quality is good, but size is smaller than usual
• California
  • Round harvesting is at its peak
  • Jumbo and extra-large sizes are most plentiful
• Markets are inching up due to lower total volume

Romas

• East Coast
  • Supplies are steady in Tennessee
  • Some quality issues are present due to recent rain
• Mexico
  • Moderate volume is shipping from Central Mexico and Baja
  • Expect a slight improvement over the next two weeks
• California
  • Like round tomatoes, California Romas are dominated by jumbo and extra-large sizes
• Prices are up slightly due to lower yields

Grape and Cherry

• East Coast
  • Volume has tapered off this week in Virginia, but will rebound in September
  • Wet weather has forced growers to work through more product to maintain good quality
  • Expect prices to remain steady for the next few weeks
• Mexico
  • Overall production is lighter
  • Volume will increase in three to four weeks