Market Outlook

Prices are expected to remain firm in the weeks ahead as the market fills the stretch between the usual post-Labor Day slowdown and the year-end demand ramp that generally starts in late October.

Market fundamentals are expected to remain steady to firm over the coming weeks, with conditions likely to remain supported rather than follow the seasonal softening typically reflected in historical trends. This outlook is expected to persist through year-end.

Market conditions are expected to remain steady to firm in the coming months, consistent with typical seasonal demand patterns. Demand from both retail and foodservice channels appears more measured this year, which should help maintain overall market balance through year-end.

Prices are expected to trade steady to lower, largely in line with seasonal trends, with grilling demand now in the rearview and soft foodservice demand limiting any meaningful recovery.

Prices are expected to trade steady to lower in the coming weeks, with weaker retail demand having front-run the usual late-August decline this year. Downside should be limited, though, as top butts sit at just a small premium to 90% fresh trimmings, likely drawing features at retail and foodservice.

Prices are projected to stay firm in the coming months even with Labor Day and Yom Kippur demand now behind us. A solid base of demand and stepped-up QSR promotions at foodservice should keep the market supported.

Prices are expected to ease heading into October, consistent with the typical seasonal softening in foodservice demand. Limited product availability, however, should provide a degree of underlying price support.

Prices are set to trade in a narrow range despite a strong seasonal tendency to soften into October, as improved retail buying driven by carcass trade-down activity from higher-value items keeps values more supported than usual.

Prices are expected to maintain a balanced tone in the coming weeks, consistent with the typical seasonal trend for values to trade steady, as adequate inside round demand and limited available supply continue to provide underlying support.

Prices are poised to hold firm into October on strong retail demand for quality ground beef keeping Ground Chuck supported, though elevated values relative to 90s are likely to limit further upside.

Prices are expected to ease in the coming weeks as typical seasonal softness heading into October exerts modest downward pressure. Tight fresh lean trimming supplies, however, should provide strong underlying support and limit the extent of any decline.

WOG values remain steady, supported by consistent retail contract demand and a continuous production flow into cut-up and deboning operations, which helps limit spot market availability. Available product is readily absorbed by the market, reflecting balanced supply and demand conditions. The 3-3.5 lb. and 3.5-4 lb. size categories remain unchanged.

Breasts and front halves remain mostly steady, although freight costs continue to contribute to regional market variability. The boneless breast meat market is somewhat uneven, but overall supplies remain sufficient to meet current demand. Tender markets are mixed, with jumbo production moving steadily, while interest in medium and NAE tenders remains moderate. Overall, market conditions support a steady outlook across both boneless breast meat and tender categories.

Wing demand is still not what might be expected for this time of year. Supplies are adequate and demand is fair to moderate.

Back-half items continue to show strong market fundamentals. Bone-in legs and thighs are becoming increasingly difficult to source as robust domestic and export demand keeps supplies tightly managed. Activity in the leg quarter market is relatively limited, with supply and demand remaining balanced. Interest in thigh and leg meat remains active, with some traditional sellers entering the market as buyers to meet requirements. Spot market activity continues to move readily, with thigh meat maintaining particularly strong demand.

The frozen whole-bird market closes the morning on a steady note, with supplies remaining difficult for buyers to consistently secure. Market participants holding current and forward-positioned inventories, particularly of hens and lighter-weight toms, continue to maintain a confident stance due to limited availability. At the same time, buyers remain cautious as they balance near-term requirements with future needs. Consumer and institutional-sized breasts are similarly well-supported, with market discussions indicating only limited spot availability and active buyer interest. Overall, supply and demand dynamics continue to support a steady outlook across both segments.

Conditions within the raw material complex remain somewhat mixed. Fresh and frozen tom breast meat markets continue to show balanced activity, although market sentiment varies among participants. Some suppliers point to well-cleared inventories and steady buyer interest as indicators of ongoing strength, while others view current demand as largely seasonal and see little evidence of a significant change in underlying market conditions. Frozen breeder breast meat continues to face some resistance from buyers, leading sellers to remain flexible in order to encourage additional market movement. Overall, market conditions support a generally steady outlook across the complex.

With the Labor Day rally now behind us, prices are expected take on a softer tone over the coming months. Weaker demand from domestic sales channels, paired with the seasonal ramp-up in pork production ahead, should keep the trend bearish through year-end.

Prices should stay under soft seasonal pressure through September. Loin demand is drawing modest support from relative value, but ample supplies are keeping the market well stocked.

Prices are projected to trade steady to lower in the coming months, with grilling demand behind us and production rising seasonally. Ribs look like good value at current levels, which should lend some near-term support.

Prices are expected to trade steady over the next several weeks, in line with typical seasonal patterns. Butts still offer compelling value against other pork items, and increased retail featuring should limit downside.

Prices have fallen from the summer highs set in early July and look set to trade mostly steady through year-end. Heavier pork production and softer retail demand will weigh on the market near term, while export demand from Asia and Mexico should stay supportive.

White shrimp market remains stable overall, driven by lower inbound product price from India offsetting higher costs of product out of central America. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention. Expecting prices to rise in Q3/4 with new tariffs.

Black shrimp market remains stable overall, with some lower pricing noted on Headless shell on and smaller sizes. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention. expecting prices to rise in Q3/4 with new tariffs.

Pricing remains firm, large sizes (U10-U8) remain very tight to unavailable due to MMPA restrictions on key catch areas for these sizes.

Warm water lobster has stabilized with some lower pricing offers presenting in larger sizes. High volume sizes (5-8oz) remain stable and is showing signs of increase as supply tightens.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Canadian Snow crab has started trending north from the bottom of the market in May expect a tight and expensive supply in off season. There may be some deals to be had in September if suppliers get backed up but that currently seems unlikely.

Prices have leveled off with the continued lack of Russian product in the market, some sizes remain scarce but product is available.

Prices remain stable at current levels, several countries are experiencing quality and consistency issues.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

Salmon market has leveled off and remains stable at current rates, we are not seeing the seasonally expected decline in COG’s as of yet but are actively reviewing for opportunities.

Salmon market has leveled off and remains stable at current rates, we are not seeing the seasonally expected decline in COG’s as of yet but are actively reviewing for opportunities.

Salmon market has leveled off and remains stable at current rates, we are not seeing the seasonally expected decline in COG’s as of yet but are actively reviewing for opportunities.

Supply remains stable out of Asia, South and Central American supply remains strained and continues to be an issue.

Market to slightly increase in coming weeks as processors experience higher labor and fuel costs.

Scallops remain firm with smaller sizes softening in demand in recent weeks, quotas remain in place at much lower levels than last year so anticipate any cost relief to be temporary. Quarterly scallop pricing to refresh next week, will see a slight increase in pricing.

Prices continue to rise as availability remains strained globally, key sizes and cuts are being allocated across all major suppliers.

Pacific cod season has ended and supply is about 20% of expectation – supply and pricing is expected to be very high at least until B season kicks off in August/September. We have secured enough cod to get us to the next season, expect pricing to continue to rise by as much as 20%.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

MMPA is still an unknown – pricing remains high but stable.

Season is in full swing, boat pricing is down slightly from the opener but prices remain at record levels – predominant factor is fuel prices.

Milk production continues to run at record levels despite seasonally tighter availability nearby, and starting to benefit from cooler temperatures. The reduced summer output and increased bottling demand from schools have created a more competitive situation for fluid supply and is limiting short term downside. US milk production in July jumped 2.2% YOY as another 33k head were added from the initial June estimate. This is the largest US herd in 33 years and is keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, strong milk fat tests and protein demand have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market. Overall supplies remain comfortable.

The domestic butter continues to trade back towards the January lows but has noted strong demand given historic value and the seasonal bias for prices to rally into early Q4. This has supported butter prices on these breaks, while abundant butterfat has been a huge barrier to higher prices. Record milk production has kept abundant supplies of cream coming to market and butter churns continuing to run at record levels. The USDA reported July butter production set another monthly record and was 5.5% higher YOY. Even with strong domestic offtake, this is keeping the market extremely well supplied. Updated cold storage levels confirmed stocks are seasonally declining and remain 3% lower than last year, but that the seasonal drawdown from June was the smallest since 2020. Record domestic consumption and an extremely competitive export bid are working to clear the excess production coming to market from the record churn pace seen so far this year, however ongoing impressive milk output has kept butter churns full and running hard, requiring aggressive pricing to drive demand.

The domestic block cheese market continues to slowly grind lower this week. Record milk production helped drive record cheese production in July, which came in 2.1% higher than last year. American and cheddar cheese lost some of the priority from producers seen in June, and were actually down -1.1% and -1.7% YOY respectively as schedules favored Mozzarella in July. However, the larger overall cheese output will continue to keep pressure on the export markets to clear additional supplies as domestic demand has been lower YOY in 4 of the past 5 months. The export market remains competitive and is limiting upside given the need for domestic prices to stay cheap enough to encourage that much needed export demand. The US saw record cheese exports in July, coming in 25% higher than last year and helping prevent stocks from becoming burdensome. The most recent Cold Storage report showed that cheese supplies are seasonally declining, but at a slower than normal pace.

The domestic shell egg market is attempting to stabilize just above the summer lows as renewed order interest emerges. After the run-up in prices during July, buyers (both retail and foodservice) adjusted tactics to just replenish inventories to cover immediate needs, but now with prices again providing historical value, depleted pipelines are starting to be refilled. There are still plenty of eggs coming to market, but the market is again coming into a better balance. The forward outlook has some risk factors that should limit downside, with HPAI concerns starting back up with the fall migration season in September and October, along with the normal increase in retail and foodservice demand into the colder months of the year.

The soybean oil market remains rangebound as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elevated energy markets continue to influence sentiment. Strong renewable fuel demand, supportive biofuel policies, and constrained global vegetable oil supplies continue to provide underlying support. At the same time, increased feedstock imports have helped satisfy a portion of demand, easing some pressure on the domestic soybean oil market. Market direction remains closely tied to global vegetable oil fundamentals, as imports continue to play an important role in balancing growing biofuel-related demand.

The November canola futures market is consolidating near contract highs, largely tracking movements in the broader oilseed complex. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding global trade flows continues to support demand expectations for Canadian canola in both domestic and key export markets. Recent inventory data indicates supplies remain above year-ago levels but below historical levels seen in recent years. Meanwhile, canola oil values have shown modest easing, though overall market fundamentals remain supportive as participants monitor export demand and developments across competing vegetable oil markets.

The spot palm oil futures finding solid buying interest off last week’s lows. Updated Malaysian Palm Oil Board data showed stocks growing to an 8-month high and a record for the month. However, even with the well supplied nearby market, increasing renewable fuel demand in Indonesia and Malaysia, along with ongoing concerns from El Nino production losses into 2027 have kept forward prices estimates firm.

Although fall harvesting transitions have begun on the East Coast, green bell pepper prices are holding steady. Markon First Crop (MFC) and Markon Essentials (ESS) Green and Red Bell Peppers are available.

Green Bells

• California green bell supplies are centered in Hollister
  • The season will run through mid- to late October
  • Quality is very good; No. 1 grade supplies will tighten by early October
  • Coachella production is expected to start in mid-October; however, volume will be low during the transition
• East Coast yields will increase
  • The Michigan season is winding down; Ohio harvests will wrap up in early October
  • Southeastern production will increase by mid-October
  • Western North Carolina is shipping at this time
  • Quality is very good
• Expect steady markets over the next week, followed by upward pressure heading into October

Red Bells

• California red bell supplies are currently shipping from Hollister and Oxnard
  • Production is expected to continue into early November
  • Oxnard is seeing some quality and yield challenges, so fields are being harvested selectively
• Volume is steady out of Central Mexico (crossing into South Texas)
• Canadian greenhouse production continues to provide good availability
• Expect steady to slightly higher prices over the next two weeks

Industry supplies are extremely tight. Elevated insect pressure and low yields continue to limit both broccolini and sweet baby broccoli availability. Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Broccolini is available. MFC Broccolini is being substituted into packer label as needed.

• Overall supplies are extremely limited
• Elevated Diamondback moth (DBM) pressure has reduced volume
• A warm September has intensified insect activity across growing regions
• Overall quality remains good; however, DBM pressure is expected to continue challenging growers through the rest of the fall season
• Supplies will remain tight through the end of the season
• Expect active markets while demand exceeds available supply levels

The California pear season is expected to end by mid-October. New crop Washington Bartlett supplies are available.

• California Bartlett pears are winding down and expected to finish in the next three to four weeks
• The 110-count size is the smallest being shipped; 135-count and smaller sizes are depleted
• Washington growers are shipping ample supplies of Bartletts
  • The crop is dominated by 90- through 110-count sizes
  • Quality is very good with minimal issues
• Light production of the D’Anjou variety is underway; yields will increase by mid-October

Supplies are tight but will increase over the next 10 days. New crop supplies are increasing in Georgia. The Midwest season will wind down over the next 10 to 14 days. MFC Zucchini and Yellow Squash are available.

East Coast   

• Yellow Squash
  • Market remains firmer than zucchini due to lower overall availability
  • Current yields are slightly below normal, but supplies will become more plentiful next week as Georgia production increases
  • Quality is fair
• Zucchini
  • Prices are lower and yields are higher compared to yellow squash
  • Quality is good

Midwest

• Yellow Squash
  • Yields are tighter than zucchini
  • Cooler weather has moved into the region; temperatures are expected to remain in the 60s through the week
  • Quality is fair
• Zucchini
  • Supplies are more abundant than yellow squash
  • Markets have inched down slightly
  • Quality is fair
• Season Outlook
  • Production will wind down over the next two weeks

West Coast

• Zucchini and yellow squash supplies are snug due to cooler weather
  • Zucchini quality is very good; yellow squash has average quality with some scarring
  • California’s season will wind down over the next month; growers will then transition to Mexico
  • Expect elevated prices to persist over the next two weeks

Open-market strawberry prices have declined due to weak demand, creating a softer market with plentiful availability.

Santa Maria, California 

• MF Strawberries are available
• Berry size is medium, averaging 22-26 berries per 8/1-pound clamshell
• Quality ranges from fair to good, with reports of sun scalding, soft skin, and overripe fruit
• Volume continues to increase as fall production ramps up
• Maintaining the cold chain is critical to maximize shelf life; quick inventory turns are recommended
• The market is expected to remain steady until demand strengthens and absorbs the increasing supply

Watsonville/Salinas

• MFC Strawberries are available
• Berry size is medium, with counts ranging from 24 to 28 berries per 8/1-pound clamshell
• Quality is currently fair, with occasional reports of misshapen fruit, bruising, and soft skin
• Maintaining the cold chain is critical to maximizing shelf life; quick inventory turns are recommended
• The season is expected to end in late September
• Expect steady prices until demand rises

Oxnard, California

• Limited production has begun
• Markon’s first loading day is September 28