Market Outlook

Prices are likely to stay under pressure as demand softens, with retail buyers turning to alternative items to stock the meat case. However, lower harvest rates and the seasonal dip in Choice grading should help temper the decline through the end of August.

Prices have likely peaked for the season, with buying interest reaching its height before the usual seasonal decline sets in. Supplies are expected to remain tight relative to demand through July and August, helping to keep prices elevated year-over-year.

Prices are expected to remain steady over the next few weeks, following typical seasonal trends for July. While demand for tenderloins usually softens in July, tighter supplies will help support prices throughout the month.

Prices will stay firm in the coming weeks, defying the usual seasonal decline. Tight supplies of uncommitted product, along with broader geographic demand in both domestic retail and marketing channels, will continue to provide support.

Prices are expected to reach their annual peak in the coming weeks, as demand typically softens in early July. Top Butts will continue to offer strong value compared to other cuts, which should help limit price declines through the remainder of 2025.

Prices are likely to reach a seasonal high in the coming weeks, as retail buyers begin scaling back purchases into July. However, strong domestic demand should help keep prices supported above $400 per cwt through August.

Prices are expected to remain steady to slightly lower in the coming weeks, following typical seasonal trends. Foodservice demand will stay uneven, helping to keep prices relatively stable through the end of the month.

Despite the typical seasonal softness in July, prices are expected to take on a neutral tone in the coming weeks. Resilient retail and grocery demand will help maintain stability, though tariffs may weigh on export activity.

Prices are projected to remain supported in the coming weeks, driven by overall robust demand for the Round primal amid tightening supplies.

Prices have steadily risen in recent weeks, driven by strong demand for ground beef as consumers shift away from steak. Although seasonal factors are expected to push prices lower, any declines will be limited due to tight supply conditions.

Prices surged in recent weeks due to a significant imbalance between demand and available product leading up to the July 4th holiday. While prices are expected to moderate in July, lower slaughter rates and reduced imports will keep supplies tight through the end of the summer.

The WOG complex closes the week in a position consistent with earlier market indications. Market activity and sentiment vary by weight category. Small (under 3 lbs.) and heavy (over 4 lbs.) WOGs are ending on stable and well-supported footing. In contrast, sellers of mid-weight (3–4 lbs.) birds continue to face fully adequate supplies and fair to moderate demand. As a result, many are maintaining pricing flexibility to help move remaining end-of-week inventory.

Sentiment for turning bone-in breasts and front halves is slightly more bullish compared to the start of the week, driven by increased domestic and export demand for further processing and deboning. Paid prices remain within a narrow range of supportive values, and overall, these lines are rated steady. Jumbo and medium-sized boneless breasts continue to be well-positioned at current price points, with supplies ranging from barely adequate to adequate across most sales channels as marketers maintain supportive asking prices. Select-sized boneless breasts are uneventful on the spot market and are rated steady pending additional bids, sales, and offers. Frozen production is about steady, though recent bookings have come in below market expectations, prompting quotation adjustments accordingly. Input from tenders remains irregular, with some players noting stronger demand from retail and foodservice sectors while others struggle to maintain consistent throughput and show a willingness to negotiate. Overall, this line is rated steady as the market awaits further developments.

Elsewhere, jumbo and medium-sized wings are clearing well. When limited offerings do appear on the spot market, they are quickly absorbed by traditional purchasing channels at higher prices. Small-sized wing production is balanced and warrants a steady tone.

For the back half of the bird, legs and thighs trade within a narrow range of supportive prices. Drumsticks remain uneventful, though some report supplies leaning toward the fully adequate side as the week closes. Leg quarters are well-established, with marketing sentiment ranging from neutral to cautiously upbeat. Fresh leg meat demand is steady, while fresh thigh meat shows modest discounting. Frozen leg and thigh meats are testing support at discounted levels.

Frozen whole-body toms and hens remain scarce on the spot market, with most supplies tightly held and only offered when upward price momentum is evident. The fresh market is even more imbalanced, as the recent sharp increase in frozen values has prompted many buyers to reassess pricing expectations and adjust sourcing strategies in real time.

Institutional and consumer-sized breasts remain tight and are held confidently; however, immediate demand is manageable, leading some buyers to adopt a wait-and-see approach for future needs. Both lines remain firmly steady as the market awaits further direction.

Prices are expected to remain under pressure throughout July, contrary to the usual seasonal trend of price increases. Mixed demand from various foodservice segments, along with reduced retail promotions, will likely keep prices subdued in the near term.

Prices will remain steady to slightly lower in the coming weeks, in line with typical seasonal trends. A mild decline in retail demand, driven by reduced grilling activity, along with potential slower export sales, may put downward pressure on the market.

Prices are likely to remain soft through the end of July, following typical seasonal trends. While grilling demand has slowed, the possibility of occasional retail promotions this summer should help temper price declines.

Prices are projected to take on a softer tone in the coming weeks, in line with typical seasonal trends. Although domestic demand for boneless Butts remains solid, potential for reduced exports and increased product availability have introduced a more bearish outlook for the market.

Prices are expected to remain under pressure through July, influenced by seasonal demand factors and concerns over a potential slowdown in export shipments. However, strong deli demand should help mitigate further declines.

The market for blue swimming crabmeat remains largely unchanged, though the undertone is highly unsettled due to the announcement of universal tariffs and the subsequent delay of reciprocal tariffs for many Southeast Asian countries. Many stakeholders are adopting a wait-and-see approach, as universal tariffs took effect in April, while reciprocal tariffs have been delayed until July 9th. Overall, supplies in the U.S. are adequate, and demand remains mostly moderate. Many market participants continue to monitor individual inventory positions closely. Overall, the market trend is steady, with some uncertainty driven by tariff-related factors.

The shrimp market showed selective price increases, while the broader market remains steady to firm. Sellers are navigating the balance between higher replacement costs and a domestic market still adjusting to these increases. The additional financial strain from tariff bond requirements adds further complexity to the cost structure. Overall, the market trend is steady to firm, with rising costs and tariff challenges continuing to put pressure on prices.

Values increased across all categories due to limited availability and steady demand. The value added segment also showed strength, driven by tight replacement conditions. Overall, the market trend is firm, supported by constrained supply and consistent demand.

Values increased, driven by a firm market bias and reports of limited landings. The availability of large shrimp remains extremely constrained.

Warm‑water lobster tail prices have remained flat to modestly firm this week, with stable supply and sustained demand. However, the introduction of broad U.S. tariffs on imported seafood—plus sector-specific duties on Canadian and Chinese lobsters—has added upward pressure. Domestic sourcing avoids these tariffs, offering a predictable alternative.
Pricing holding steady and trending upward

North American lobster tail pricing remains steady this week, with stable—but not abundant—supply. Canada’s spring fishery is underway and Maine’s season is ramping up in June, though Maine landings are tracking down around 21% vs last year. Demand is healthy across retail, foodservice, and exports. Trade dynamics are favorable—USMCA keeps Canadian lobsters tariff-free, but a 25% China tariff on Canadian lobster and proposed US tariffs have introduced trade uncertainty, leading buyers to tread cautiously. Pricing is Stable could increase with Tariffs

The North American lobster meat market is steady, with tight supply and consistent demand. Canadian processors are active, but meat yields remain low early in the season, limiting volume. Retail demand is softer, but frozen meat continues to see strong interest. Trade between the U.S. and Canada remains unaffected by tariffs, but recent international duties and potential U.S. policy shifts are adding caution to future planning. Tight supply and strong demand supporting elevated price levels. Prices are steady to increasing.

The Canadian snow crab market remains strong with good momentum as the season progresses. Supply is growing steadily, with over half of the allowable Canadian quota already harvested. Demand is healthy—especially from U.S. retail and foodservice buyers—with import volumes rising significantly compared to this time last year. While trade flows into the U.S. remain smooth under USMCA, recent tariffs from China and the potential for new U.S. duties have introduced some uncertainty. Despite that, Canadian snow crab continues to perform well in the North American market, especially compared to more tariff-affected global competitors. Pricing is up

The wholesale market for Ahi (Yellowfin Tuna) is currently stable, with steady supply and firm demand, particularly for premium and value-added products. Global availability is adequate, though not abundant, and sustainability requirements are reshaping how buyers and suppliers operate. Demand is especially strong in foodservice, retail, and e-commerce, with growing interest in sashimi-grade, ready-to-eat, and certified sustainable products. While bulk frozen formats remain attractive for high-volume buyers, the fastest-growing segments are traceable, high-quality tuna tailored to health-conscious and convenience-driven consumers. Pricing Trend: Stable at the moment, but could rise with more demand

The pangasius market remains stable and shows signs of strength: supply—influenced by tight stocking and high fry costs—is steady, and demand from key markets like the U.S., EU, and China is rising. Export value has increased year-over-year, supported by diversification into fillets and value-added formats. U.S. tariff risk looms, but existing trade channels remain open. Overall, it’s a balanced market with healthy demand. Short Term: Prices are expected to remain stable, with the potential for further increases.

The frozen keta (chum) salmon market is stable and robust. With global harvests rising sharply—20% in Alaska and 50% in Russia—supply is plentiful, and farm‑gate prices have held firm. Frozen H&G and fillets are readily available, and demand remains steady in U.S. foodservice and retail, with strong demand from roe markets in Japan and China. Trade remains smooth with no tariff disruptions. Overall, it’s a healthy, well‑supplied market heading into peak summer volume Short Term: Price steady

The Chilean farmed salmon market is currently balanced but faces headwinds. Fresh fillet prices rose following a 10% US tariff instituted in April, while frozen portion prices remain stable. Production is contracting slightly, with Chile’s output forecast down ~1–1.5% this year. Although export values surged in late 2024, ongoing tariff-related cost increases and potential weaker U.S. demand introduce uncertainty. Overall, volumes are steady and trade remains active, but price sensitivity and policy risk are elevated as we go into summer Pricing might rise

The Norwegian farmed salmon market is currently marked by ample supply, strong export growth, and notable price decline. Harvest volumes surged—exports are up sharply to key markets like the U.S. and China—putting downward pressure on spot prices. Retail demand remains healthy, but price competitiveness is being driven by promotions. A newly introduced 15% U.S. tariff adds cost burden as we head into peak summer supply, creating near-term uncertainty amid abundant volumes Short Term: Price Steady but might increase with tariffs

The frozen tilapia fillet market has stabilized after early‐year disruptions, with global supply intact and wholesale prices holding steady. U.S. demand remains soft, but shifting trade barriers—like 170% tariffs on Chinese tilapia—are rerouting flows toward Brazil, Egypt, and Southeast Asia. Suppliers are adapting via new markets and value-added offerings. Overall, it’s a balanced market with steady pricing, firms adjusting sourcing strategies, and a watchful eye on ongoing trade uncertainty. Short term: Pricing most likely to rise

Supplies remain tight, particularly for smaller fish sizes (3/5, 5/7 fillets and 7/9 whole), with ongoing shortages. This is attributed to the seasonal lifecycle of catfish combined with increased domestic demand, largely driven by tariffs. Pond bank prices are rising, and price increases are expected to continue throughout the summer.

Harvests have remained strongest on 10/20 scallops, with quality continuing to be high. U-10 and U-12 sizes have remained tight, accounting for less than 20% of the offload this week. Meanwhile, 20/30s made up slightly more, representing 21% of the catch. At this time of year, many vessels reduce fishing activity to conserve allowable days at sea for cooler weather and higher demand.

The overall Mahi market is currently challenged by limited availability. Buyers are sourcing from multiple packers, yet inventory positions remain largely unchanged. Availability is at an all-time low since 2018. Significant price increases have occurred and are expected to continue trending upward.

Milk production is facing pressure from mounting heat across much of the country, tightening up overall availability. However there is still adequate supplies for processors to run full schedules. May output was 1.6% better than year ago levels. Current herds are the largest since July 2021. Nearby demand is steady, while spot offers remain well below class and below year ago levels. On the cream side, record monthly milk fat tests have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market, while increased Class II demand for ice cream is stabilizing prices.

The butter market is well supported from record domestic demand and extremely competitive export prices limiting the seasonal build in cold storage levels.  Solid production schedules and adequate cream availability have kept spot values well below the past few years, but record domestic demand YTD is limiting just how cheap prices need to be.  May production data showed US output up 3.5% from 2024, while updated cold storage inventories for May came in 4.8% below last year. The 7.3% build from April was right on par with seasonal norms. US exports so far this season have been more than double last year’s levels and increased global values have reduced US butter imports.

Cheese prices are finding support off the recent lows after the significant break in prices last month. The new cheese plant capacity is pushing more fresh cheese onto the market and keeping prices subdued. Better than expected production data for this past month are limiting just how expensive prices need to be, while strong export demand has kept a bid under the market on setbacks. May cheddar output was 9.6% higher YOY. Updated cold storage data showed that total cheese and American cheese stocks were 1.5% and 1.1% lower YOY, respectively, in May. This did mark the smallest YOY decline that cheese has seen in a year. Domestic demand has taken on a softer tone of late, adding to the recent weakness in prices. However, the lower prices should now start to encourage further global export demand, limiting downside opportunities.

The shell egg market is higher this week amid more aggressive retail shelf prices and increased promotional activity. This has created more of a value proposition for as a cheap protein source and helping drive additional orders, while warmer weather suggests a slowdown in buying activity. With the premium of cage free vs. conventional prices starting to widen back out, this will provide another headwind to nearby demand. Smaller flocks are still limiting the amount of egg coming to market, but it appears we are pushing the market into better supply/demand balance. Cage free layers in June grew by 1.4 million from May as HPAI outbreaks have remained calm in key cage free states and producers pushed more animals into production. This marks the largest cage free flock on record.

Soybean oil futures remain elevated. The EPA’s larger than expected Renewable Volume Obligations (RVO) for 2026 and 2027 continues to underpin the market as it came in 67% higher than current 2025 mandates. The market is adjusting to the new demand prospects and is attempting to consolidate. Domestic spot crude and refined soybean oil basis offers remain firm on improved demand from the renewable diesel sector.

Canola seed futures reversed course this week as prices correct from last week’s highs. Increased rain chances for the Canadian Prairies in the coming weeks are helping reduce drought concerns for canola and will need to verify. Further selling pressure will be limited given firming soybean oil prices and improved overall demand for edible oils for the 25/26 season. RBD canola oil offers remain elevated through the Q3 period.

The spot palm oil futures is higher this week, while continuing to take note of soybean oil trends. A Reuters poll of several cash traders estimated that India imported 950,000 metric tons of palm oil in June, up 60% from May. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release their June market data on palm oil stocks and production July 10th. Current estimates are for a slight gain in month over month palm oil stocks.

Green bell peppers on the East Coast are limited with New Jersey slow to start and tropical depression Chantal moving though North Carolina. Red bell peppers markets are higher due to snug supplies in California. Markon First Crop (MFC) and Markon Essentials (ESS) Green and Red Bell Peppers are available.

Green Bells

• North Carolina production has been impacted by tropical depression Chantal
• New Jersey has started with light volume; expect to see increases by the end of week
• Michigan and Ohio are expected to start this weekend in a limited manner
• California’s Bakersfield region is past peak production
• Fresno and Ventura, California regions will be up and running by mid-July
• Central Mexico volume (crossing into South Texas) is steady; quality is good
• Expect higher markets over the next two weeks

Red Bells

• California’s Imperial Valley finished abruptly last week due to high heat
• Bakersfield started last week and will continue to increase volume in July
• Central Mexico has very light volume crossing into South Texas
• Canadian greenhouse production is slow due to recent heat waves
• Expect higher markets over the next week

Cauliflower markets have peaked and are poised to drop as supplies ramp up across all regions. ESS Cauliflower is readily available.

• Salinas and Santa Maria, California volumes are increasing, as demand softens post-holiday
  • Softer demand has allowed for fields to size up and supplies to improve
  • Warmer weather forecasted through the weekend will help push fields forward and further amplify yields
  • Quality is strong in all regions; heads are presenting a bright white color and very minimal bruising
• Maine, New York, and New Jersey volumes will ramp up within the next two weeks
• Markets are projected to slide this week as demand drops and supplies increase on the West and East Coasts

The Mexican grape season will wrap up over the next two weeks. California harvests will start July 13.

California

• California-grown MFC Lunch Bunch Grapes will start shipping when the Mexico Lunch Bunch season comes to an end on July 15
• Green and red seedless supplies are forecast to begin shipping on July 13
• Expect higher prices at the start of the season, but markets will ease once California volume ramps up in late July
• Good quality is anticipated

Mexico

• The Mexican season will end the week of July 7
• Elevated demand and good quality are anticipated until that time

Green leaf and romaine prices are fairly steady at moderately elevated levels, while iceberg continues rising at elevated market levels, due to continued strong demand in Salinas and Santa Maria, California.

• MFC Premium Green Leaf, Iceberg, and Romaine are available; Markon Best Available (MBA) is being substituted when needed due to light weights
  • Overall quality is good; fluctuating densities, insect pressure, and internal burn are present in some lots
  • MFC Iceberg weights are in the mid-to upper 40 lbs., West Coast packer label ranges from mid-30 to mid-40 lbs.
• Guanajuato, Mexico, supplies continue to be less than normal following a hailstorm and ongoing rains, prompting processors and fresh market buyers to shift demand from Mexico to California
• East Coast supplies are average for this time of year; iceberg weights are lighter than normal with large frames and puffy texture
  • Iceberg weights are ranging from low to high 30 lbs., compared to normal ranges of high 30 to low 40 lbs.
• Elevated markets are expected to continue through mid-July, at minimum

Tomato transitions are occurring on both coasts; the East Coast is snug due to recent challenging weather. Regional local deals starting in mid- to late July will assist overall tomato supply. MFC Tomatoes are available.

Round

• East Coast volume will meet demand as South Carolina winds down
  • Transitions into Tennessee and Virginia are occurring with steady volume
  • Smaller, summer local deals will help supplement in mid-July
• California’s San Joaquin Valley is in full production with good volume and sizing options
• Mexico has production on the Baja Peninsula (crossing Otay Mesa) and Jalisco/Michoacan (crossing S.Texas)
• • Baja has strong volume and quality
  • Central Mexico has been affected by poor weather; quality is reduced
• Expect slightly higher markets over the next two weeks

Roma

• East Coast volume is snug due to recent poor weather
• Tennessee and North Carolina growing regions will start in a limited manner this week
• California supply is increasing with good quality
• Central Mexico quality is fair due to weather challenges; Baja has lighter supply as some early season growers wind down
• Expect slightly higher markets over the next week

Grape & Cherry Varieties

• Overall supply remains snug as poor weather has impacted transitions between South Carolina and Virginia
• Smaller local deals in Tennessee, Kentucky, and North Carolina will help supply over the next two weeks
• Baja/Central Mexico is seeing increased demand from East Coast buyers
• Expect higher markets to persist over the next two weeks

Tomato Suspension Agreement

• The US Department of Commerce is soon expected to decide on whether to reinstate a 20.9% duty on Mexican tomato imports
• The July 14 deadline is fast approaching; however, there is no current indication that a reversal or delay will occur
• Roma and round tomato market impacts could be minimal until the main Mexican season begins in the Fall
• Grape and cherry tomato supply is more reliant on Mexico and markets may react differently
• Markon will continue to monitor and report on any decision regarding the current Tomato Suspension Agreement