Market Outlook

Prices are expected to hold firm through in the coming weeks, driven by the seasonal strength that routinely takes hold in late April. Ribeye supplies remain fairly tight, and retail buyers have moved aggressively to lock in product ahead of grilling season.

Prices will continue to display a strong tone through the end of April, consistent with typical seasonal trends for the month. Demand should remain robust in the coming weeks, and any dips will likely draw prompt buying interest.

Prices are expected remain supported through April, underpinned by tight supply and steady foodservice demand. That said, further upside may be capped as consumers grow increasingly selective amid broader economic pressures.

Prices are expected to hold firm through April, bucking the typical seasonal pattern. The underlying strength reflects a combination of expanded foodservice menu placement and growing retail demand as grilling season draws near.

Prices will continue to display a supportive tone throughout the spring, consistent with typical seasonal patterns for April. The cut continues to offer compelling value for consumers looking for a leaner alternative to higher-priced premium options.

Prices are expected to hold firm but may face difficulty sustaining current levels as the seasonal lift fades. That said, with production remaining soft and retailers beginning to book ahead of Memorial Day, values should stay comfortably above year-ago levels.

Prices are expected to stabilize in the coming weeks, falling more in line with the seasonal trend. Buyer hesitancy to chase the market higher is warranted, as foodservice demand for flap meat is likely to remain uneven.

Prices will maintain a strong tone through spring, underpinned by robust retail and foodservice demand. As buyers begin positioning ahead of Cinco de Mayo and supplies tighten, values should remain well-supported.

Prices are expected to remain under pressure as Round primal availability continues to improve. With foodservice demand remaining stagnant, upside potential looks limited in the near term.

Prices are expected to hold firm through April, supported by solid retail demand for quality ground product. While consumer resistance tends to emerge at these levels, that threshold looks increasingly likely to be tested as spring advances.

Prices are expected to hold firm, underpinned by strong retail demand and tightening fresh lean supplies. With grilling season drawing closer, demand shows no signs of easing — a dynamic that should sustain upward pressure on values.

Whole birds close the morning with an overall steady assessment. Market feedback continues to characterize this segment as well-supported, driven primarily by consistent retail demand at week’s end. Supplies are reported as adequate across most sales channels, with no material supply disruptions noted.

Bone-in breasts and front halves are balanced, though several participants indicate that deboning demand has eased compared to recent weeks. Supplies of boneless breasts are described as adequate to fully adequate, depending on individual production and sales exposure. Sellers with heavier reliance on further processing report slower movement as the holiday approaches, while retail-oriented sellers continue to experience steady demand. Market values remain largely stable, with most transactions occurring within established ranges, though limited pockets of mild price pressure persist. Tenderloin availability remains tight in some areas, and sellers with limited inventory are able to command firmer terms.

Wing markets remain steady. Some participants report a modest increase in recent spot inquiries compared to late first-quarter levels. However, overall demand remains below historical norms. Based on current activity, the wing complex is assessed as stable without strong upward or downward momentum.

Spot demand for leg quarters and thighs remains active, although transaction volumes were lighter during the morning’s activity. Market input suggests leg meat values are at least steady, with some sellers evaluating buyer willingness to consider premiums. This has resulted in limited, low-volume transactions at firmer levels. Drumsticks show similar dynamics, with sellers maintaining firm positions. Leg meat supplies are more visible than in recent weeks, leading some buyers to delay near-term procurement. Thigh meat, by contrast, remains well-cleared, with demand exceeding available offerings and limited response to higher bids.

Market activity in whole turkeys remains subdued during the holiday period. Trade in fresh whole birds is notably lighter than in prior years, and negotiations for parts and raw materials have slowed considerably. Market movement shows limited variation, with changes occurring sporadically as most participants defer meaningful engagement until after the Easter weekend.
Frozen whole turkeys continue to move in low volumes, generally under firm market conditions. Consumer-sized breasts with gravy packets have seen limited transactional activity, while basted production levels remain unchanged. Buyers continue to seek institutional-sized breasts, though spot opportunities remain limited due to tight inventories.

Fresh and frozen turkey breast markets close the week with a generally steady tone. While seller expectations for domestic production continue to vary by supplier, negotiation activity has slowed ahead of the weekend, resulting in a flat overall market assessment. Export demand remains minimal, influenced by competitively priced offerings from Brazil.

Prices are expected to hold firm through the spring, underpinned by the onset of grilling season and a pickup in foodservice and QSR demand.

Prices are expected to settle into a more balanced tone through April, consistent with normal seasonal trends for the month. Improving export demand should provide support, though supplies should remain adequate to meet demand.

Prices will continue to find support, as the cut’s favorable value relative to competing proteins should continue to attract buyers — a dynamic likely to spark featuring activity and drive stronger retail demand as grilling season draws near.

Prices are expected to push higher in the coming weeks, supported by a pickup in export interest and the onset of grilling season driving overall demand.

Prices are expected to soften over the next several weeks, consistent with normal seasonal trends. Retail demand is likely to ease following the Easter holiday, while rising pork production will add to overall supply and weigh on values.

Prices continue to rise gradually as supply tightens. Ongoing uncertainty related to MMPA impacts is expected to support continued upward pressure.

The white shrimp market remains generally stable, with lower inbound costs from India offset by higher Central American replacement costs. Pricing is expected to hold at current levels or ease slightly, though freight fuel costs continue to limit further downside.

Black tiger shrimp pricing is broadly stable, with modest softness observed in headless shell-on formats and smaller sizes. The near-term outlook points to stable to slightly lower pricing, constrained by elevated sea freight costs.

Pricing is firm to slightly higher from lent, with large sizes remaining extremely tight or unavailable due to MMPA restrictions across key fishing areas.

The market has stabilized, with some lower offers appearing in larger sizes. Core volume sizes remain stable and are beginning to show upward pressure as supplies tighten.

Prices have stabilized at elevated levels, with tight availability across all sizes. Pricing is expected to remain elevated in the near term.

Live lobster pricing remains firm with ongoing tight supply. Values are expected to edge higher through Mother’s Day.

Pricing remains steady, supported by limited raw material availability despite ample frozen tail inventories. Values are expected to trend higher approaching Mother’s Day.

Availability remains extremely limited ahead of the new season. Tight supplies, particularly in 5–8 oz and 4-up sizes, continue to support elevated pricing.

Pricing has leveled off amid continued absence of Russian supply. Higher-priced Japanese product has improved availability in larger sizes, supporting firm market conditions.

Pricing remains flat, though multiple producing regions are experiencing quality and consistency challenges.

The market remains balanced, with no material changes expected in near-term pricing.

The market has leveled off and remains stable, with pricing expected to soften in early June.

Pricing remains steady, with expectations for modest softening heading into early June.

The fresh salmon market is stable, with seasonal pressure anticipated to ease pricing in early June.

Asian supply remains steady, while South and Central American availability is constrained and expected to remain a concern through spring 2026.

Market conditions are unchanged, with no anticipated pricing shifts in the forecast.

Pricing remains firm overall, though select sizes have seen softer demand. Quotas remain significantly lower than last year, suggesting any price relief will be short-lived.

Prices continue to rise as global availability remains constrained. Key sizes and cuts are being allocated, with limited relief expected before late Q2.

Supply has tightened as demand shifts away from higher-priced Atlantic cod. While still competitively positioned, availability of key sizes is limited.

The market remains balanced, with no material changes anticipated.

The season is active, with pricing elevated due to high operating and fuel costs contributing to continued upward pressure.

Milk production remains impressive, and is still trending steady to higher across the country as we approach peak spring flush season. US milk production report showed a massive 2.9% increase in February vs. the prior year and another 15k head added to domestic dairy herds from last month. This is the largest US herd since 1993 and is keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, stronger YOY milk fat tests have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market. Overall supplies remain comfortable, while increased demand has kept them from becoming burdensome.

The butter market has remained under pressure. Impressive milk output so far this year has helped keep butter churns full and running hard. This has been magnified by the stronger butterfat component within the milk, pushing even more cream onto the market. The USDA confirmed the elevated production levels this past week as updated data showed February butter output up 9.1% from the prior year and setting a new record for the month. Recent export data did show the US exported the most butter in the month of January since 1994, but forward expectations don’t appear as optimistic. Export demand will likely face further headwinds given the recent run up in US values, elevated freight costs, stronger US dollar and growing inflation risk from the US – Iran war. However, the cheaper prices earlier this year did support better domestic and global demand, keeping US inventories limited.

The cheese markets are pushing back lower this week. Impressive milk output has helped keep cheese vats full and running hard. This was confirmed by the USDA this past week as updated production data showed February cheese output up 3.9% from the prior year and setting a new record for the month. American and Cheddar output was slightly lower at +1.9% and +2.3% respectively. Stronger dairy margins of late should continue to limit dairy cow slaughter and keep plenty of milk coming to market as we move into the spring flush season. Cold storage figures from the USDA showed that February stocks of all cheese, and American styles, have struggled in the early seasonal build period and are both the smallest for the month since 2020. Additional cost pressure on consumers should be a headwind to rallies.

The shell egg markets are pushing back towards their recent multi-year lows as we move past Easter and into the slower spring/summer demand period. With prices moving lower, post-holiday restocking at the retail level has been muted and is keeping pressure on the market. This trend of slower order interest has been seen across foodservice as well, despite the potential for increased promotional activity as companies push for value. Overall flocks are still more than adequate as updated monthly flock data showed the US table egg laying flock as of March 1st at 315.8 million head, up 5.8 million from last month (counter seasonal) and +8.2% YOY. Seasonality would suggest softer prices into the summer months now that we are past the peak holiday demand period. Updated cage free layers for March showed little movement as flocks were only 300k head lower than the prior month and still at record highs.

Soybean oil futures have backed off from their recent highs following the 2-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, and the supposed opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Without an actual end to the war, the remains plenty of risk in the market, limiting downside nearby. Also, the final 2026/2027 biofuel policy released the prior week confirmed higher biofuel demand and is providing further support to the market. Domestic spot crude and refined soybean oil basis offers remained firm last week while South American levels are now up significantly from their recent lows.

Canola futures have backed off their recent March highs and continue to follow the lead of the soybean and soybean oil markets. RBD canola oil values remained firm through Q3.

Palm oil values have followed the energy markets lower this week, but are still well off their March lows. Indonesia is expected to move to a B50 blend later this summer, increasing domestic demand by 2 million metric tons. Malaysia’s palm oil inventories likely dropped in March by the most in three years to their lowest level since last July, as a surge in exports more than offset a modest increase in output. Palm oil stocks are expected to decline for a third straight month, to 2.18 million metric tons, 19.2% lower than February.

Blueberries are currently in a demand-exceeds-supply situation. This is expected to continue until California’s San Joaquin Valley season begins in late April/early May. Volume will remain low over the next two weeks.

Mexico

• High temperatures persist, some reaching 95 degrees
• Volume has increased 10% since last week
• Yields are expected to tighten over the next two weeks
• Quality is good; some early breakdown has been reported
• Expect rising prices and tight stocks

Florida/Georgia

• The season is getting a late start due to earlier weather events
  • Fields north of Orlando have reported an estimated 40–50% crop damage
  • Rainfall temporarily halted harvesting earlier in the week
  • Operations are expected to resume later this week
• Limited production will begin in Georgia next week
• Markets remain elevated; overall supplies are tight

California’s San Joaquin Valley

• Conventional harvesting is set to begin in late April/early May
• Ample volume and great quality are anticipated

Markets are rapidly escalating as Salinas and Santa Maria yields are not meeting current demand. Markon First Crop (MFC) Broccoli is available in Salinas, California and Mexico (into South Texas).

Broccoli

• The Arizona/California desert season has ended
• Production continues to ramp up in Salinas and Santa Maria; however, supplies are not yet sufficient to meet current demand
• Warmer weather over the past few weeks brought fields forward, leading to supply gaps the rest of this month
• Rain this past weekend will affect quality, further reducing volume
• Quality ranges from fair to good
  • Wet conditions may contribute to pin rot, cat’s eye, purple casts, and oxidation issues
  • Minimal insect pressure has been reported (Diamondback moth)
• Expect elevated pricing and limited availability until production is fully underway in early May

Cauliflower

• Harvesting has concluded out of the Arizona-California desert region
• Salinas and Santa Maria supplies are extremely limited, but production will increase through this month
• Size is currently small but will gradually increase as the crop ramps up
• Recent rain resulted in further issues, delaying some production crews and affecting field conditions
• Quality ranges from fair to good; wet conditions may contribute to black mold, mildew, and discoloration
• Expect higher pricing and limited until production is fully underway in early May

Prices are climbing due to tighter supplies and higher import costs. MFC and Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Brussels Sprouts are available.

• Markets continue to increase as supply tightens out of Mexico, leading to overall lower availability

• • The initial surplus out of Mexico has passed
  • Yields have been falling
• Transportation costs and border delays are impacting imported supplies
• Quality is great; good color, shape, and minimal seeder are being reported
• Growing conditions remain optimal, but overall lower volume will keep pushing prices higher
• California’s Central Coast season will begin in mid-July
• Expect pricing to continue incrementally rising through April

Although new crop production has begun in several growing regions, chile pepper prices remain elevated. The Texas and California seasons are underway, but early volume is low. MFC Chile Peppers are limited; packer label is being substituted as needed.

Mexico

• A warm, wet winter contributed to increased pest pressure, which has affected yields
• Quality ranges from fair to good
• Strong demand within Mexico is reducing available exports
• Prices will remain elevated until U.S. production ramps up

United States

• Jalapeno, Serrano, and Anaheim harvesting is increasing in Texas
• California growers are shipping multiple varieties in small quantities, but quality varies widely
• Georgia’s season will start in early May
• Expect limited stocks and elevated prices through early to mid-May when domestic operations are at full capacity

California lemon supplies are tightening, especially 165- and 200-count sizes, as the crop is favoring larger fruit (95- to 140-count stocks). The California Navel season is ending; 113- and 138-count fruit is extremely limited. Early Valencia orange supplies are also snug.

Lemons

• MFC and Essentials (ESS) Lemons are available  
• Districts One and Two (the San Joaquin Valley and Southern California) are currently in production
• 165- and 200-count sizes are limited; yields are dominated by 95- through 140-count lemons
• Quality is good; some greening and scarring have been reported
• Expect a slow yet steady price climb as demand increases over the next six to eight weeks

Oranges

• MFC and ESS Navel and Valencia Oranges are available out of California 
• Oranges are currently being shipped out of California, Arizona, Texas, Florida, and Morocco (into New Jersey)
  • The California Valencia season has begun in a limited manner; Navel supplies are expected to run until early May
  • The South Texas season will end in late April
  • Mexican Valencias (crossing into Nogales, Arizona) are expected to ship into June
  • Florida Valencia oranges are on the market
  • Moroccan Valencias continue shipping off the East Coast
• Small sizes (113- through 138-count oranges) remain extremely limited in California and South Texas
• Expect good quality and elevated markets

The Vidalia Onion season is scheduled to begin on April 13.

• This year’s Vidalia onion season will run from April 13 through early September
  • This date is set by the Georgia Agricultural Commissioner
  • Growers can’t pack any Vidalia onions until the official start date
• True Vidalia onions are grown exclusively in a 20-county region in South Georgia
• Their flavor profile is known for exceptional sweetness and mild flavor
• Vidalia crops benefit from growing in low-sulfur soil
• Excellent quality is forecast

Expect extremely limited pineapple supplies for the next several weeks.

• Heavy rainfall in tropical growing regions has disrupted fruit development and reduced import volume
• Excess moisture has resulted in internal translucency on some fruit, tightening usable supplies
• Holy Week harvest interruptions added additional short‑term pressure
• All sizes are extremely limited, but availability continues to skew smaller
• Crownless supplies are especially limited, as most production is committed to crown‑on programs
• Limited availability and elevated pricing are expected to persist through May

Prices are two‑tiered—with ample supplies on the East Coast and low volume in Mexico, increasing West Coast markets. MFC Zucchini and Yellow Squash are available.

Florida

• Squash supplies have increased drastically over the last few weeks
• Quality is very good
• Georgia growers will start harvesting in two weeks
• Expect low markets to persist for several weeks

Mexico

• Hot weather and low market conditions led some growers to abandon older fields in southern growing districts over the past 7–10 days
• These factors resulted in an approximate 50% reduction in supply levels in one week, causing prices to escalate
• Markets are expected to remain active until new crop domestic production begins
• Availability is expected to tighten into early May; the season will wind down by mid‑May

All tomato varieties are extremely tight. Round tomatoes are especially scarce this week.

Rounds

• Florida
  • South Florida supplies are limited
  • Average volume is not expected until early May
  • Growers in Central Florida are expected to start harvesting next week
• Mexico
  • Yields are extremely low, with only a few growers offering pallet quantities
  • Production should remain constrained through next week
  • Substituting Romas is advised
  • Quality is mixed

Romas

• Florida

• • Supplies are extremely tight
  • Romas are more readily available than rounds
  • Yields are forecast to increase over the next two weeks

• Mexico

• • Yields are low but increasing
  • Production levels will remain below normal for several weeks
  • Quality ranges from fair to average
  • Round prices are lower as volume is higher

Grape and Cherry

• Florida

• • Supplies remain limited but production is starting to increase
• Mexico
  • Volume is declining as the Sinaloa season winds down due to unfavorable weather and disease pressure in the fields

Summary

• Supplies remain extremely tight across all tomato varieties; rounds are the most limited
• Markets are elevated (record-level for this time of year), and buyers are using Romas to cover round demand
• Order flexibility (size/variety) and quick product rotation are recommended due to reduced shelf-life
• Near-term relief is limited: some improvement may begin in the next 10 days to 2 weeks (including grape/cherry supplies as new fields come online), but Florida growers are not expected to reach typical round volume until early May