Market Outlook

Prices are expected to hold a strong tone heading into November, underpinned by tight ribeye supplies and the continued willingness of both foodservice and retail buyers to bid higher to secure product ahead of the holiday season.

Prices are set to range trade into year end, supported by holiday demand and tight supplies, with increasing buyer in the coming weeks providing additional support.

Prices have moved lower on softening retail demand as buyers trade down to lower-value items, though tenderloins’ compelling relative value at current levels should prompt a shift toward more aggressive buying interest.

Prices are expected to maintain a slightly firmer tone heading into November following recent strength, as grilling demand fades and retail buyers redirect their focus away from tri-tips toward other beef items.

Prices are set to hold steady through year-end, with buyers expected to defend the $500 support level if tested. September sirloin steak prices at grocery stores dipped 0.2% year-over-year as retail demand continues to moderate.

Brisket demand remains supported by promotional activity across several national foodservice operators, including Panda Express, Jimmy John’s, Arby’s, Taco Bueno, and Chipotle. Despite this demand driver, market fundamentals suggest continued downward pressure in the near term.

Prices are expected to remain soft, tracking their typical seasonal trajectory, with annual lows historically established in the latter half of October as demand eases and supplies build, leaving little in the way of near-term catalyst for a meaningful recovery.

Prices are projected to trade steady to lower into November, with typical seasonal softness taking hold and retail carcass trade-down activity from higher-value items slowing at current levels.

Prices are expected to maintain a softer tone into November, in line with typical seasonal trends. Demand for rounds tends to moderate in the fall, which should keep inside round prices trading within a relatively narrow range in the near term.

Prices have declined in recent weeks, consistent with the typical post-Labor Day seasonal pattern. Demand for the chuck primal is expected to remain strong heading into the holiday season, providing ongoing support for Ground Chuck prices.

Prices have taken on a steady to softer tone heading into November, though any decline through year-end is expected to be gradual. Cow slaughter has already begun its seasonal increase, adding additional loads of lean trimmings to the market.

The WOG market remains steady overall, though spot market activity is limited. Offerings available to the open market continue to be scarce, while buyer interest remains largely focused on contracted volumes rather than additional production. As a result, market conditions remain balanced, with values holding steady across key weight categories.

Breasts and front halves continue to trade steadily, with overall market activity remaining relatively uneventful. Sentiment for jumbo boneless breast meat has become increasingly favorable, although transactions are not consistently occurring at stronger values. Market participants continue to assess the impact of Mexican demand in light of Newcastle disease-related developments in Brazil. Trade in medium and select breast meat remains quiet, while tender movement continues to be inconsistent across the market. Some participants report balanced conditions, while others note ongoing pressure due to uneven demand. Overall, spot demand for tenders remains modest, contributing to a generally cautious market outlook.

The situation for wings is very similar to that of tenders in terms of mixed sentiment, availability, and pricing. Chunk and trim meat trade quietly at mostly supportive values.

The back half market is showing mixed dynamics. Recent discounting within dark meat categories has begun to weigh on the whole leg market, though lower sales levels are not yet widespread. Leg quarters and drums continue to move well through both domestic and export channels, helping to maintain generally balanced conditions. Thigh meat remains the most challenged segment of the complex, with ongoing pressure across the industry. Demand for leg meat continues to be subdued; however, aggressive discounting appears to have moderated compared to recent weeks.

Holiday-related demand remains focused on the frozen whole-bird turkey market, with buyers continuing to secure remaining needs against a tight supply backdrop. Spot market availability remains limited, and sellers are generally holding product with confidence. Buyers have demonstrated a willingness to remain active in the market to ensure coverage of near-term requirements. As a result, market conditions remain firm, supported by strong seasonal demand and constrained spot supplies.

Consumer-sized breasts remain solidly situated at listed levels, with supplies termed adequate. Institutional-sized breasts are similarly positioned and retain an at least steady undertone as we await additional market-swaying feedback.

Prices have softened sharply in recent weeks as retail and foodservice demand weakens, with national chains pivoting toward value at the expense of premium items. Short-term rallies are possible, but the trend through year-end remains soft.

Prices are trading near record lows despite strong overall loin exports, with boneless sirloins seeing limited international buying interest. Domestic retail buyers are expected to step up in the coming weeks as current price levels offer compelling value.

Prices are expected to maintain a softer tone as higher production gradually builds supply against moderate demand.

Prices are expected to trade steady to lower in line with seasonal trends, with butts continuing to offer compelling relative value and increased retail featuring activity expected to provide a degree of downside support.

Prices are set to trade softer as domestic demand remains restrained, with retail activity expected to improve toward late November for the holiday season. Export sales have been strong overall, though U.S. hams face rising competition from other pork exporting nations.

White shrimp market remains stable overall, driven by lower inbound product price from India offsetting higher costs of product out of central America. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention. Expecting prices to rise in Q3/4 with new tariffs.

Black shrimp market remains stable overall, with some lower pricing noted on Headless shell on and smaller sizes. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention. expecting prices to rise in Q3/4 with new tariffs.

Pricing remains firm, large sizes (U10-U8) remain very tight to unavailable due to MMPA restrictions on key catch areas for these sizes.

Warm water lobster has stabilized with some lower pricing offers presenting in larger sizes. High volume sizes (5-8oz) remain stable and is showing signs of increase as supply tightens.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Snow crab pricing is expected to keep its upward trend through Jan as the market continues to work through frozen inventories and supplies get tighter. Customers are encourage to secure needs early to minimize exposure against price increases and limited availability.

Prices have leveled off with the continued lack of Russian product in the market, some sizes remain scarce but product is available.

Prices remain stable at current levels, several countries are experiencing quality and consistency issues.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

Farmed salmon is expected to experience continued volatility with an upward trend expected during the holiday season and through lent as China continues to buy at 3x the pace they have in prior years, and the wild salmon season was a bust.

Farmed salmon is expected to experience continued volatility with an upward trend expected during the holiday season and through lent as China continues to buy at 3x the pace they have in prior years, and the wild salmon season was a bust.

Farmed salmon is expected to experience continued volatility with an upward trend expected during the holiday season and through lent as China continues to buy at 3x the pace they have in prior years, and the wild salmon season was a bust.

Supply remains stable out of Asia, South and Central American supply remains strained and continues to be an issue.

Market to slightly increase in coming weeks as processors experience higher labor and fuel costs.

Scallop market has leveled off at current pricing, expect market to increase in late November.

Prices continue to rise as availability remains strained globally, key sizes and cuts are being allocated across all major suppliers.

Pacific cod is expected to remain firm to increasing in price through Q2 of next year, lack of Russian imports and a US catch at about 30% of expectation has caused severe strain on the supply chain. Customers with consistent volume requirements should secure those volumes in advance and will need to be flexible with sizing to maintain Pacific cod on their menu.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

MMPA is still an unknown – pricing remains high but stable.

Season is in full swing, boat pricing is down slightly from the opener but prices remain at record levels – predominant factor is fuel prices.

The cooler weather is boosting milk output across the country. Milk production continues to run at record levels, while ongoing bottling and protein demand has created a more competitive situation for fluid supplies. US milk production in September 2.6% YOY as domestic heads grew by 26k head and remain at a 33-year highs, keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, strong milk fat tests and protein demand have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market. Overall supplies remain comfortable, while firm powder markets are keeping milk values supported.

The domestic butter market is consolidating after reaching its lowest levels since February 2021. With prices still at historic lows, additional order interest continues to materialize as buyers look at year over year savings and the coming build for holiday and baking season demand. This continues to provide modest support on breaks, while abundant butterfat has been a huge barrier to higher prices. Record milk production has kept abundant supplies of cream coming to market and butter churns continuing to run at record levels, and demand has not quite been able to keep up. Also, improved farmer margins this past week should continue to support record milk and cream production in the US. Updated cold storage levels of butter showed another disappointing month for seasonal drawdowns as the August to September decline was the smallest in 4 years, with September stocks now 16.5% higher than last year.

The domestic block cheese market are stalling out after setting new calendar year highs. The recent rally has been driven by a shortage of CME-eligible product (cheddar 4-30 days of age). Quality issues at a plant in the central US forced end users to scramble for coverage in the spot market at a time when producers have been shifting production schedules away from young cheddar. This move higher in prices does not match the fundamental situation as the overall market grapples with healthy milk and cheese supplies, and a limited demand outlook. Recent consumption data from the USDA showed another month of YOY declines in domestic use, with American style consumption falling 1.2% from last year in August. Updated cold storage data showed September inventories of all cheese were 2.4% larger than the prior year, while American styles saw a more significant seasonal drawdown and currently -1.6% YOY. However, demand remains unsteady as domestic use has seen YOY declines in 5 of the past 6 months. US export competitiveness has lost ground on the sharp rally the past few weeks, and the global marketplace remains very competitive.

The shell egg market is attempting to stabilize off its recent lows. The first commercial layer HPAI outbreak was reported last week in a laying flock in Illinois, limiting further downside as the trade waits to see what the true impact to supply will show. Retail demand patterns saw some modest strength from increased promotional activity, while foodservice demand patterns were little changed apart from further bargain hunting at the current low levels. However, there are still plenty of eggs coming to market, especially with the slower than normal seasonal uptick in demand that we see in October. Today’s HPAI news reconfirms the forward risk factors that should limit downside, along with the normal increase in retail and foodservice demand into the colder months of the year as well as poor producer margins.

The soybean oil market is push back towards its July lows this week as new crop harvest starts to ramp up and soybean oil demand continues to face headwinds from a solid import lineup of used cooking oil and tallow . Speculative fund traders continue to hold a near record long position in the soybean meal futures, slowing any sustainable downside in the soybean oil. However, the lofty diesel fuel and energy prices will limit additional weakness amid supportive biofuel mandates in 2027. Domestic soybean oil basis offers remained soft as the market indicates plenty of supply available in the front end.

The spot canola futures closed lower on harvest pressure and lower soybean oil prices. Chinese oilseed buyers have purchased around 1 million metric tons of Australian canola seed in recent deals as improved Beijing-Canberra ties, lower tariffs and stronger processing margins boost demand. RBD canola oil basis offers remained mostly steady for the week.

The December palm oil futures is leaking lower this week, following the lead of the soybean oil market. Palm production should begin its seasonal fall and winter decline by late October, while an anticipated El Niño-related cyclical decline by next spring should offer underlying market support. Nearby crude palm oil prices are building in further expansion in Malaysian stocks, but longer term support remains from stronger export demand, sustained biodiesel consumption and a seasonal decline in production next month.

Asparagus availability is tightening rapidly following a short-lived improvement in West Coast supplies. Jumbo and extra-large sizes are critically short, and ongoing weather challenges in Mexico and Peru are expected to keep overall availability limited through the end of the calendar year.

Customers should plan for supply limitations, particularly on jumbo and extra-large size orders. Please communicate substitution flexibility as early as possible.

Mexico

• Markon First Crop (MFC) Asparagus is limited; packer label is being substituted as needed
• Recent tropical storms with heavy rainfall accelerated harvests, creating a temporary increase in production
  • That supply increase has now passed and Mexican availability is declining quickly
• Jumbo and extra-large sizes remain critically short and will be the most difficult sizes to source in the coming months
• Quality ranges from fair to good; likely defects include:
  • Undersizing
  • Seeding/spreading
• Expect strengthening markets and increasingly limited supplies in the coming weeks

Peru (into South Florida)

• Warm, rainy El Niño conditions continue to affect quality across active growing regions
• Excessive spreading/seeding and flabby spears are being reported
• Production remains heavily weighted toward small and standard sizes; jumbo and extra-large supplies remain extremely limited
• Weather-related production challenges could intensify in the coming months

Customers should plan for continued supply constraints and maintain flexibility on sizing. Markets are expected to remain elevated, with the greatest challenges centered on sourcing jumbo and extra-large asparagus through the end of the year.

The Mexican avocado market remains unsettled as grower pressure to increase field pricing, combined with the Michoacán harvest disruption, has pushed prices higher across all sizes and grades. Continued volatility is expected until growers and industry representatives reach an agreement. Markon will continue to monitor the situation closely and provide updates as additional information becomes available.

Market Overview

• Mexico’s avocado industry is experiencing disruption due to grower protests and ongoing pricing negotiations
• Harvesting has been suspended in Michoacán, while operations in Jalisco continue
• Limited border crossings and reduced harvesting are creating uncertainty around availability, pricing, and upcoming shipments
• Pricing has increased across all sizes and grades

Supply

• Mexico’s harvest volume is expected to fall next week
• Orders may be affected beginning next week, out-of-spec fruit, and size substitutions
• The size curve remains heavy to larger fruit (32-48ct), with limited supplies of smaller sizes (60-84ct)

Quality

• Lower-elevation production is transitioning from the Loca crop into Aventejada fruit
• Aventejada fruit is averaging 27% dry matter, while Loca fruit is averaging 29%
• Both crops may require additional ripening time until the fruit matures further on the trees
• Evening rainfall may result in visible lenticel spotting on the fruit’s skin

Recommendation

• Remain flexible on sizing and grade to maximize order fulfillment
• Review upcoming avocado needs and secure volume early due to the potential for shortages and further price increases
• Closely inspect arriving fruit and plan for longer ripening times as the crop transitions

Industry supplies are ample, and the transition into the Arizona-California desert season is expected to progress smoothly. Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Broccolini is available. MFC Broccolini is being substituted into packer label as needed.

• Supply levels will remain steady over the next four to six weeks
• With Mexican production beginning November 1, overall volume will increase through November
• Quality is very good in both growing regions
• Cooler weather has reduced Diamondback moth pressure, improving Salinas Valley crop quality

Although cilantro supplies are meeting demand, quality is becoming more variable as warm weather and recent rainfall impact production regions in Central California.

• RSS Cilantro is available (100% U.S.-grown); packer label is being substituted when necessary
• Persistent heat in Salinas, Santa Maria, and Oxnard has reduced overall yields and increased quality challenges
• Quality concerns include
  • Bolting and seeder development
  • Yellowing and discoloration
  • Reduced shelf life and elevated decay pressure
• Recent rainfall has temporarily disrupted harvesting
• Overall quality ranges from fair to good, with lot-to-lot variability increasing.
• Markets are steady

Active green bean markets persist due to limited supplies in multiple growing regions. RSS Trimmed Green Beans are available.

• East Coast supplies are extremely limited
  • Southeastern production is ramping up
  • The Michigan season has ended
  • Current volume is concentrated in Virginia, Illinois, and North Carolina
  • Northern Florida harvests have slowed due to rain
  • Georgia supplies should increase over the next week, but it will be a slow recovery
  • Quality is fair
• West Coast production has ended prematurely due to rain
• Baja volume was affected by Tropical Storm Rachel
  • Fields were severely impacted by storms earlier in October
  • Product will remain extremely tight until mid-November when new crop harvesting starts in Jalisco
• Guatemalan stocks are steady and regularly crossing into South Texas
• Prices will remain elevated for another three weeks at least

Iceberg and romaine supplies have increased; volume in Huron and Oxnard, California, as well as Las Cruces, New Mexico, has reduced shortages in Salinas and Santa Maria. Green leaf stocks remain limited, but yields will increase once the Arizona-California desert season begins this week. MFC Green Leaf, Iceberg, and Romaine Lettuces are available in Salinas, California; Markon Best Available (MBA) is being substituted as needed due to low weights.

Salinas/Santa Maria, California

• Quality ranges from fair to good; insect pressure, internal burn, mildew, and seeder are being found in many lots
• Disease pressure, including INSV and Sclerotinia, persists; percentages of impacted heads vary from lot to lot
• Salinas Valley yields are low
• Iceberg and romaine prices are falling
• Green leaf markets will remain strong until the desert season ramps up in mid-November

Huron, California

• Iceberg, romaine, and romaine heart quality is very good; head weights range from 38 to 42 pounds
• Prices are falling

Mexico (crossing into Texas)

• Iceberg production continues year-round
• Prices are easing
• Quality is very good; head weights range from 28 to 32 pounds

New Mexico

• The iceberg market is falling
  • Quality is very good
  • Weights are in the high 30s
• Early season rains wiped out 10-15% of total plantings; romaine is expected to be the most limited lettuce this fall season (through late November)

South Carolina

• Production will begin the week of October 19, further reducing pressure on California supplies

After a short period of lower prices, lime harvesting has slowed in Mexico, pushing the market back up. MFC and Markon Essentials (ESS) Limes are available.

Mexico

• Production has temporarily declined in Veracruz, Mexico
• Wet weather over the weekend has prevented crews from entering orchards
• Size ranges from 175- to 230-count supplies; 250-count fruit is limited
• Major quality issues, such as stylar, are rare; blanching and oil spotting are being reported
• Markets will increase this week and hold steady into the next
• Pricing is expected to ease in mid-November

East Coast volume is climbing in Georgia and Florida, easing prices. Markets on the West Coast are also easing with improved supply out of Mexico. MFC Zucchini and Yellow Squash are available.

East Coast   

• Yellow Squash
  • The market is softening
  • Quality is good
  • Supplies are ample
• Zucchini
  • Prices are easing
  • Quality is good
  • Availability is slightly tighter than yellow squash, but remains strong overall
• Production is underway in Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and Mexico

West Coast

• Zucchini and Yellow Squash
  • Volume is falling in California’s Central Coast region
  • Quality remains very good, but minor scarring is being reported
• California’s Central Coast season will end by the second week of November
• Expect prices to ease slightly over the next two weeks

Mexico

• Zucchini and Yellow Squash
  • Sonoran yields are ramping up
  • Peak production will begin in late November
• Markets are steady, but will ease in late November

Markon inspectors and growers assessed the impact of the recent rainfall across California’s Central Coast strawberry growing regions today, and unfortunately, challenging conditions persist. Growers are culling water-damaged fruit, heavily reducing yields; losses are estimated at 50-60% of current crops.

Supplies for orders scheduled to pack and ship Monday, October 26, and Tuesday, October 27, are extremely limited. California growers expect to fill 50% of orders due to quality problems; shelf life will be reduced in all harvested fruit.

Mexico’s strawberry season has begun, but volume is low. Full production is not expected until late November or early December. Markon is moving member orders to Mexico for the next two weeks, as current supplies allow.

California growers began stripping damaged fruit today and will continue next week.

• Strawberry availability will remain extremely low throughout this week
• Shortages, delays, and harvest cancellations are expected
• Markets will remain active, as demand will far exceed available supplies
• The long-term weather forecast indicates another storm may move into California’s Central Coast later this week

Markon will continue working closely with our California and Mexico growers to secure as much high-quality product as possible and minimize disruptions for our members.

Prolonged heat and rainfall across domestic and offshore growing regions continue to pressure production, resulting in tight supplies, quality concerns, and elevated markets.

Snow Peas

• Domestic California production is experiencing weather-related stress from excessive heat and rain, reducing yields and creating quality challenges
• Mexico and Peru are also contending with adverse growing conditions, including high temperatures and rainfall, limiting available supplies
• Quality issues have increased; scarring and discoloration are being reported in most lots
• Reduced volume and quality defects are keeping supplies tight
• Expect elevated pricing and limited availability through at least mid-November

Sugar Snap Peas

• MFC Sugar Snap Peas are limited; packer label is being substituted
• Availability remains better than snow peas, although supplies are not abundant
• Excessive heat and rainfall have increased cosmetic defects and reduced overall quality
• Markets are expected to remain elevated as weather impacts continue to affect production and availability