Market Outlook

Prices are expected to trade sideways in the coming months as demand from both retail and foodservice buyers remains restrained. However, some buyers may contract earlier than usual for Memorial Day and Mother’s Day demand given expectations of tight supplies.

Prices are expected to strengthen through Memorial Day as demand gradually builds heading into spring while supplies remain exceptionally tight. However, strip loins appear relatively expensive at current levels compared to tenderloins and ribeyes, which may limit buyer interest.

Prices are expected to remain steady through March as tight supplies provide support despite seasonally softer demand. Retail features for the week ended February 13 totaled 5,685 stores, up sharply from 394 the prior week and 822 in the same week last year.

Prices are expected to remain firm heading into March, defying the typical seasonal pattern of steady values during this period. Retail demand for moderately priced beef items should continue to strengthen in the coming weeks.

Prices are expected to remain strong as consumers trade down to more affordable cuts, supporting demand in the coming months. January sirloin steak prices averaged $13.85/lb., up 15.6% year over year, the second-highest annual increase in the beef complex after ground beef.

Prices are poised to strengthen over the coming weeks, consistent with typical seasonal patterns. Pre-holiday contracting activity for St. Patrick’s Day should provide upward support as both retail and foodservice buyers look to lock product ahead of the holiday.

Near-term price strength appears likely despite headwinds from seasonal demand patterns that normally pressure values lower. Supply tightness and persistent trade-down buying behavior are supporting prices counter to the typical seasonal trajectory.

Prices are expected to remain firm in the coming weeks, departing from February’s typical seasonal weakness, as recent consumer purchasing strength supports firm values.

Prices are expected to remain firm heading into March as seasonally strong round demand forces processors to pay up for raw material.

Prices have shown initial signs of retreating in February as retail demand moderates seasonally. However, declines should be limited heading into March and April as buyers build inventory ahead of spring demand

Prices have begun to soften as seasonally lower demand weighs on ground beef. However, tight cold storage supplies, which more than offset a slight uptick in dairy cow slaughter, should limit further downside.

The WOG market is generally stable, though conditions vary among participants. Some sellers are seeing modest improvement in retail and distributive demand, which is helping keep spot production well balanced. Others are experiencing only moderate interest in the open market. With supplies viewed as adequate, certain sellers are maintaining flexibility on pricing when necessary. Overall, WOGs are rated as steady, with no significant changes expected unless new market‑moving factors emerge.

Bone-in breasts and front halves are holding a steady market position with moderate spot demand, while deboning channels are approaching negotiations more cautiously and with greater price sensitivity than in recent weeks. Jumbo boneless breasts continue to test for market support within a wide range of firm and discounted asking levels, and demand varies across participants, though some sellers tied to national foodservice and retail channels are seeing a modest improvement from earlier in the week. Medium and select-sized boneless production remains balanced, and NAE boneless breasts are also steady. Tender availability is generally adequate, though slightly less accessible than in the recent past, and tenders overall are viewed as steady. In the wing category, both jumbo and small sizes continue to move at modest discounts, supported by fair demand and fully adequate supplies.

This morning’s market-related dialogue also highlights the retreating premium associated with party wings. Medium-sized wings close under a flat and generally stable set of marketing conditions.

The market for leg quarters remains steady, supported by consistent domestic and international demand. Sellers are holding firm on asking levels, with some testing buyers’ willingness to pay slightly higher values. Legs, thighs, and drumsticks are stable with demand ranging from moderate to active. Leg meat is well balanced with adequate supply, while thigh meat is tighter due to strong interest. Overall, the segment is rated fully steady.

Frozen whole turkeys continue to experience strong upward momentum due to very limited inventories, with buyers competing for scarce supply. Forward-delivery offerings are also trending higher, though interest in long‑range bookings remains slow. Consumer and institutional breast items are trading steadily.

Domestic breast meat remains under downward pressure, with sellers showing flexibility when met with lower bids. Both fresh and frozen tom breast meat, as well as tenders, continue to trend lower amid readily available supply. Export breast meat is holding steady, while thigh meat remains well supported and firmly established in the market.

Prices have traded steady in early 2026 despite very tight cold storage supplies. Expectations for higher year-over-year pork production and minimal retail promotional activity should keep prices restrained in the coming months.

Strong export demand ahead of Chinese New Year should support prices near term, but ample cold storage and strong production will limit gains into March.

Prices have eased in February as post-Super Bowl seasonal patterns take hold. Additional downside is expected to be hard-fought, with sustained domestic demand and constrained cold storage supplies providing underlying support.

Prices are expected to remain steady in the coming weeks as ample production and cold storage supplies are offset by strong domestic demand for boneless butts. Export sales have started the year sluggish, providing a modest headwind.

Prices are expected to remain steady in the coming weeks, though the early Easter holiday this year (April 20) should bring the typical seasonal price increase earlier than usual. Heavy cold storage supplies and strong production levels will help buffer against increased demand from both domestic and export markets.

Prices are rising gradually as supply tightens, with further increases expected through Q1 as the impact of MMPA regulations remains uncertain.

The white shrimp market remains steady, supported by lower-cost imports from India balancing higher-cost product from Central America. Supply and demand are aligned, and pricing is expected to remain firm.

Black tiger shrimp pricing is stable, with some softer values on headless shell-on and smaller sizes. Market conditions indicate firmness heading into the next production season.

Prices are firm to slightly higher heading into Lent, with very tight availability on large sizes due to catch-area restrictions under MMPA guidelines.

The warm water lobster market has stabilized, though larger sizes are seeing some downward pricing pressure while high-volume sizes remain steady and may strengthen as supply tightens.

Frozen cold-water tails have reached stable levels, with limited expected change until the new harvesting season begins.

Live cold-water lobster prices increased slightly due to tight supply across all sizes.

Lobster meat pricing remains stable, supported by scarce raw material despite ample frozen tail inventory. An upward trend is expected approaching Mother’s Day.

Snow crab remains stable at historically high levels due to extremely limited inventory and the absence of Russian king crab, though some larger sizes show discounted offers.

Prices continue to trend higher due to limited Russian product. Japanese product has improved availability but at elevated prices.

Pricing is steady to slightly higher, influenced by higher import costs and MMPA-related constraints affecting certain importing countries.

The market remains stable with no expected pricing changes in the near term.

Frozen Norwegian salmon is increasing seasonally, driven by reduced supply from Canada and lower Chilean output during summer months.

Frozen Chilean salmon is also in its seasonal rise due to reduced availability from Canada and Chile’s lower seasonal production, with week-over-week increases continuing.

Fresh salmon prices are moving upward as Lent drives stronger demand and consumption.

Supply from Asia is stable, while Central and South American supply remains tight and is expected to remain challenging into spring 2026.

The market remains steady with no anticipated changes in pricing.

Scallop prices are firm to higher as availability of large sizes declines and upcoming quotas reflect historically low volumes.

Prices remain on an upward trajectory due to tight global availability and supplier allocation, with relief not expected until late Q2.

Pacific cod supply has tightened as buyers shift away from higher-cost Atlantic cod, though it remains a relatively better value despite limited availability in key sizes.

The market remains stable, with no meaningful pricing changes anticipated.

Milk production remains impressive, and is still trending steady to higher across the country. The warmer temps in the Central and Eastern US are helping to bolster milk supply after weeks of disruption from extreme winter weather. US milk production report showed a massive 4.4% increase in December vs. the prior year and a new record for the month. Herds remain steady near the largest levels since 1993, keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, record monthly milk fat tests have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market as prices remain historically depressed. Overall supplies remain comfortable.

The butter market is still dealing with the burdensome amount of butterfat coming to market, but renewed order interest is helping to prop up prices and drive volatility. Nearby, churns are reportedly running near capacity in the US. Production is ramping up seasonally, but firm domestic and export demand caused stocks to contract more than expected in December and are currently sitting 7% lower YOY. This market has found support off the recent lows, but rallies should struggle heading into the peak milk/cream production season as stocks recover domestically.

The cheese markets have found support off their lowest levels in 2 ½ years, but have struggled on rallies back towards the recent highs. End users continue to take advantage of the significant savings vs. prior years and prior quarters, driving additional order interest. When combined with record export demand, this has kept domestic stocks from expanding as much as originally feared. Updated cold storage figures from the USDA showed that stocks of all cheese, and American styles, increased by slower than normal amounts in December and are currently +1.3% and +2.4% higher YOY, respectively. However, rallies in cheese prices will be difficult to sustain due to the overwhelming supply of milk that continues to come to market. Given overall domestic demand has been essentially on par with last year so far, this market will continue to rely on cheap export values to clear additional cheese production.

The shell egg market has again shifted towards oversupply as buying interest has slowed dramatically into February. The higher prices the past few weeks have caused retail and foodservice order interest to decline and are now pushing prices back towards their recent lows. Updated monthly flock data showed the US table egg laying flock as of January 1st at 308.8 million (+1.5% vs. ’25 levels). There were another 4.6 million layers hit by HPAI this week, but the overall tone remains one of adequate production. Updated cage free layers for January showed an impressive 2.4 million head increase from December, despite the tighter premium to conventional eggs and remains the largest cage free flock on record. Currently, cage free eggs are trading at a discount to their conventional counterparts.

Soybean oil futures are pushing to their highest levels since late 2023 this week amid reports that the EPA will provide the White House with its guidance around biofuel mandates. This, combined with a supportive biofuel tax credit announcement last week, the potential trade deal with India that could spark soybean oil export demand, and higher energy prices have pushed soybean oil values higher. Soybean oil basis offers are steady in the front end but have started to firm for Q2 forward, while South American basis values have been trending lower as weather has improved.

The nearby canola futures are higher again this week, continuing to follow the strength in the soybean and soybean oil markets. China extended its antidumping investigation on Canadian canola out to March 9th, but seems to have done little to discourage import interest. RBD canola oil basis out through Q3 remained mostly steady last week.

Palm oil futures are bouncing off their recent lows this week and following the strength in the soybean oil market. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported their end of January palm oil stocks at 2.815 million metric tons, down 7.7% from 3.051 million in December but still up significantly from 1.580 million in January of 2025 and the highest for the month in seven years. Palm oil output from Southeast Asia, which supplies nearly 90% of the global market, is expected to rise marginally in 2026 on improved weather in top grower Indonesia, even as production in second-largest grower Malaysia is expected to decline.

Melon markets are entering a seasonal transition period, with weather-related impacts influencing yield, sizing, and availability.

Cantaloupe – Central America

• Offshore cantaloupe supplies remain sufficient
• Cooler weather has had minimal impact on overall yields, but is contributing to reduced sizing
• Jumbo availability is beginning to decline
• Overall volume is expected to remain average, but size is shifting toward 9‑ and 12‑count fruit
• Quality is strong with good color and sweet flavor; sugar levels range from 12–14 Brix

Honeydew – Central America

• Honeydews are more sensitive to adverse weather and have been significantly impacted by lower temperatures
• Yields will decline, diminishing availability through March
• Five‑, five/jumbo‑, and six‑count fruit is most plentiful
• Eight‑count fruit remains extremely limited, accounting for a minimal portion of total production
• Quality is very good; melons are exhibiting a clean external appearance and minimal defects
• Sugar levels are holding in the 11–13 Brix range

Honeydew – Mexico

• Western Mexico is providing strong supplemental volume, helping offset constrained offshore supplies
• Supplies are expected to remain steady through late May
• Sizing is well-balanced; expect good availability of five- and six-count fruit
• Quality is strong with good color and sweet flavor

West Coast carrot supplies are tightening as harvesting shifts from California’s San Joaquin Valley to California’s Imperial Valley. Availability will be limited for the next four weeks due to weather-related issues and reduced yields. Commodity pack prices are higher.

California

Commodity/Value-Added

• Supplies will remain extremely tight through March as the San Joaquin Valley season winds down
• Imperial Valley supplies are snug as the new season approaches
• Markon orders will be filled in full; growers are holding to six-week averages
• Expect a demand-exceeds-supply market through March; 96-hour lead times are necessary to help fill orders
• Commodity pack (jumbo carrots) substitutions are available out of Arizona and Georgia
• Expect elevated markets and limited supplies through March

Georgia

• The season is in full swing and will run through early June
• Commodity supplies are tight; quality is very good
• Expect elevated markets as this region helps fill the void from California

Arizona

• The season is fully underway and will run through July
• Quality is great
• Expect steady markets through March

Cilantro pricing is lower this week with lighter demand.

• Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Cilantro is available
• Demand is generally lower this week, easing market pressure caused by weather issues
• Quality is fair
  • Heavy rains across the Oxnard growing region this month delayed production and led to marginally lower harvest volumes
  • Record high temperatures are forecast into this weekend across the Arizona-California desert growing regions; further stressing plantings
  • Yellowing, seeder, spotting, and early decay have been reported
• Expect steady to slightly higher markets over the coming weeks as stocks recover from inclement weather and demand increases into next month

Storage crop Markon First Crop (MFC) Onions are available from Idaho, Oregon, Utah, Colorado, and Washington.

Pacific Northwest

• The storage season is expected to finish in late April, some suppliers will continue to ship into early May
• Quality on remaining stocks range from good to fair; occasional internal browning, double-heart, and translucency are present in remaining supplies
• FOB prices are slightly lower for yellow onions as supplies have increased from Mexican grown yellow onions crossing into South Texas
• Expect steady markets over the next seven to ten days

Colorado

• Storage supply levels are expected to be depleted by mid-March
• Some growers will begin transferring product from other regions to fill orders
• Quality on remaining stocks ranges from good to fair; translucency is present in remaining supplies
• Remaining stocks are mostly jumbo size, medium and colossal sizes are somewhat limited
• Expect steady markets over the next seven to ten days

Utah

• Storage supplies will be depleted by the third week of March
• Quality ranges from good to fair; translucency is present in remaining supplies
• Expect steady markets over the next seven to ten days

Mexico

• Early season yellow, red, and white Mexican onions are crossing into South Texas
• Quality ranges from good to fair; green cast, soft texture, mechanical damage, and thin skins are to be expected
• FOB prices remain slightly higher than domestic FOB prices for storage supplies of red and yellow, but comparable to white onions
• Prices are expected to start tapering down to try to compete with domestic supplies

Texas

• The fresh-run yellow onion season has started in a limited manner
• Early lots are peaking on jumbo size onions; colossal sizes are somewhat limited but expected to increase over the next few weeks
• Red and white fresh crop onion harvests will begin shipping in a limited manner the week of March 9
• Initial quality is good to excellent
• Fresh run onions will have a higher moisture content, thinner skins, shorter shelf life, and be more susceptible to bruising and mechanical damage
• FOB prices are higher than domestic storage supplies

The California Navel orange season will end in late March; new crop Valencia supplies will begin shipping at that time. Imported Moroccan fruit arrivals have been delayed three to five days due to poor weather off the East Coast.

California

• Markon First Crop (MFC) and Markon Essentials (ESS) Navel Oranges are available 
• Expect the Navel season to wrap up in late March
• New crop Valencia shipments will begin the third week of March
• Markon orders will be filled in full; growers are holding to six-week averages
• Expect elevated choice- and fancy-grade prices as well as high markets for small fruit (88-, 113-, and 138-supplies)
• The market should ease once the Valencia season is in full swing

Mexico

• New crop Valencias are available in Nogales, Arizona
• Great quality is forecast; sugar levels will range from 11-13 Brix
• Markon orders will be filled in full
• Prices will be comparable to those in Florida and Texas

Florida

• The new crop Valencia season is underway
• Stocks will be dominated by 113-count and larger sizes; 138-count sizes are limited
• Markon orders will be filled in full
• Fair quality is predicted; choice and standard grades will be most abundant
• Prices will be comparable to those in Mexico and Texas

Texas

• Valencia oranges will ship through April
• Size structure is beginning to shift to large fruit (56- and 88-count supplies)
• Quality is good; sugar levels range from 11-12 Brix
• Markon orders will be filled in full
• Expect steady markets and tight supplies

Imported/Moroccan

• Arrivals have been delayed three to five days due to storms off the East Coast
• Valencia quality is very good; sugar levels range from 12-13 Brix
• Stocks are dominated by 113-count, fancy-grade oranges
• Prices will be comparable to those in Florida and Mexico

MFC Norkotah Potatoes are available in Idaho and Washington. Most markets remain relatively low, but prices for large sizes, specifically 40-and 50-counts, are inching up; Idaho Norkotah seasonal volume is falling. Quality is excellent across all regions.

Idaho

• Storage crop MFC Norkotah and Burbank Potatoes are being shipped
• Size is trending towards smaller sizes as the Norkotah storage season starts to wind down
  • Norkotah 60-count and smaller stocks are most plentiful; 40- and 50-count supplies are tightening up
  • Burbank production is dominated by smaller sizes (100- through 120-count stocks) as well as No. 2 grade potatoes
  • Prices for 40- and 50-count are increasing

Washington

• Storage MFC Norkotah Potatoes are available
• Size profile leans heavier to larger counts; rising demand will push up 40- and 50-count pricing
• Quality is very good

Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin

• All Colorado sizes are available with good mixer volume; demand for large, 40- and 50-count supplies is rising
• Nevada is running at a slow pace, packing to order; 60-count and No. 2 grade stocks dominate pack outs
• Wisconsin yields are dominated by small, 90- to 120-count sizes
• Markets are stable but poised to increase for the 40- to 50-count market in all three regions
• Quality is very good

MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available in Idaho and North Dakota. Prices are rising; supplies are tight on the East Coast, pushing demand West. Southern Florida escaped major damage from recent cold weather, but growers in Northern Florida must replant. Expect limited supplies during the transition from Southern to Northern Florida that occurs in April.

Idaho, North Dakota, Colorado, Washington

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available in Idaho and North Dakota
• Demand is strong in all areas due to tight supplies in Florida
• Quality is very good; color is exceptional in North Dakota reds
• Markets are rising due to strong demand, especially for red B size stocks

Southern Florida

• Reduced yields in certain lots are pushing up markets
• Supplies are expected to ship through April; quality is good
• Pricing will slowly rise over the next several weeks

Northern Florida

• This region experienced extremely low temperatures recently
• Early emerging plants suffered significant damage, leading to replanting
• Harvesting is expected to shift from mid-April to early May
• Expect elevated pricing when the new crop season begins in Northern Florida

Expect extremely limited supplies in California over the next two weeks due to prior rain events. Mexican stocks (into South Texas) are decreasing as the season winds down. Florida temperatures have begun to rise, increasing volume and improving quality. Orders are being filled in all growing regions.

Santa Maria/Oxnard, California

• Plants are being stripped of fruit after last week’s rains
• Volume will be a challenge over the next 5-10 days as new fruit will take time to color up
• Quality remains a challenge; concerns include decay, pin rot, water damage, and mildew
• Prices are high and supplies are limited

Mexico/South Texas

• Supply levels are starting to decrease as the season is past its peak
• Quality problems include white shoulders, skin bruising, and green tips
• Production will end in mid-March, depending on weather
• Expect markets to remain flat

Florida

• Warmer weather is aiding growth
• Defects include white shoulders and green tips
• Size ranges from 18 to 21 berries per 1-pound clamshells
• Expect ample supplies and steady markets

Tomato supplies are tightening further, and market prices are rising. The supply chain in Mexico is stressed this week due to violent unrest throughout the country, and freezing temperatures this winter in Florida have significantly impacted yields. MFC Tomatoes are limited; packer label will be substituted.

Rounds

• Florida tomatoes are in very short supply due to prolonged sub-freezing temperatures affecting crops in late-January
  • Growers have enacted the Force Majeure clause on contracts due to crop loss
  • Domestic supply will remain very limited until new crop supplies become available in mid-April
  • The Ruskin/Palmetto region is anticipated to provide some relief in six weeks, depending on the weather
• Mexico yields are lighter than years past due to inclement weather
  • Mixed quality is being observed at pack out
  • Demand is increasing quickly due to Florida’s supply issues
  • Shipments have further slowed this week due to cartel violence, but are expected to pick up next week
• Expect tight supplies and very high prices for the next six weeks until Florida’s supplies ramp up

Romas

• Florida stocks are extremely limited due to recent freezes; growers have enacted the Force Majeure clause on contracts due to crop loss
• Mexico’s Culiacan growing region is experiencing very high demand and lighter yields heading into March
  • All sizes are tight, and quality is average due to past weather conditions
  • Volume from Central Mexico’s growing regions is limited, extending into South Texas
  • The Mexican supply chain is under stress this week due to violent unrest and disturbed freight movement throughout the country
• Supply of Roma tomatoes will be more limited, leading to higher prices compared to round tomatoes; substituting round tomatoes is recommended as necessary
• Relief isn’t expected until supplies improve in Florida in six weeks

Grape & Cherry Varieties

• Florida is experiencing low supply levels due to freezing weather conditions
• Mexican yields are moderate due to past weather conditions that have led to quality issues
  • Mexico is experiencing increased demand
• Expect elevated prices throughout March