Market Outlook

Prices are expected to maintain a neutral tone into May, bucking the typical seasonal firming. Retail ribeye interest has been slow to build ahead of grilling season, and foodservice demand looks to remain modest.

Prices are expected to stabilize in the weeks ahead, in line with the typical May seasonal trend. While this cut remains the top consumer choice within the middle meat category, demand has begun to soften at current price levels.

Market conditions are expected to remain steady, maintaining a firm but seasonally typical tone for May. Retail activity has eased from the heightened levels of recent months, which has helped improve product availability across other sales channels.

Prices should stay well-supported in the coming weeks, in line with typical seasonal trends. The cut offers solid value at retail heading into grilling season, while reduced slaughter rates have kept supplies tight, further reinforcing price strength.

Prices have softened in recent weeks, but seasonal support should provide a lift into May, as this cut continues to hold a dominant position in consumer preferences.

Prices are expected to hold firm in the coming weeks, with seasonal trends lending support. Rising foodservice interest and constrained supply should keep values well underpinned.

Prices are expected to remain firm into May, in line with established seasonal appreciation patterns. Steady buys from foodservice operators should continue to support the market and reinforce overall price stability through the period.

Prices are expected to remain firm through May, in line with typical seasonal trends. Domestic demand should stay strong, with buyers quick to step in on any price setbacks.

Round prices are expected to find modest support into May after the recent selloff, in line with the typical seasonal trend. Ample inside round supplies, combined with softening domestic consumption, should continue to limit upside.

Prices are likely to remain elevated in May, with domestic demand for quality ground product picking up as Memorial Day approaches. That said, additional upside will be hard-fought at current price levels.

Prices are expected to maintain a strong tone in the weeks ahead, in line with typical seasonal trends. Demand for grinds has picked up as buyers favor more budget-friendly options heading into peak grilling season.

WOGs are holding a steady tone. Some participants report additional weekend supply due to increased production, while demand remains supportive but not as strong as typical seasonal expectations. Overall market direction is unchanged.

Trading activity for breasts and front halves remains quiet. Supply pressure on boneless breast meat has eased slightly, but values continue to soften. Select items are clearing well, and tenders remain well‑absorbed, though fewer premium trades are being reported.

All wing sizes continue to move lower as sellers face difficulty placing production despite already reduced values. Medium wings have reached new lows, and discounted movement remains prevalent.

Whole legs and bone‑in thighs are supported by steady deboning demand. Leg quarter availability is limited, and these items are holding a firm tone. Fresh drums see moderate interest, and export‑eligible production is readily placed. Thigh and leg meat continue to move well, though production has become slightly more noticeable.

Frozen whole birds are finishing the week on a firm, steady footing. Spot availability is generally well‑cleared across most channels. Producers with limited current or upcoming volumes are testing firmer positions, and some isolated, low‑volume premium trades have been reported. Consumer and institutional‑sized breasts remain balanced, with no meaningful directional shifts noted.

Consumer and institutional‑sized breasts continue to mirror the conditions seen late in the week. Supplies remain only barely adequate against moderate interest, keeping the market steady while participants await additional bids, offers, and sales to signal clearer direction.

Prices have eased recently on strong production and uneven QSR demand, though the softness should prove short-lived. Improving retail demand ahead of grilling season, paired with seasonally lighter production, should spur forward bookings at current levels and underpin a recovery.

Prices are projected to hold steady in the coming weeks, with tight supplies offset by uneven exports and softer domestic demand. Loins’ value proposition compared to competing proteins is expected to lift demand as grilling season approaches.

Prices are expected to stay firm over the coming weeks, in line with typical seasonal patterns. Steady retail demand, paired with tightening supplies, should continue to provide solid price support heading into the weeks ahead.

Prices will continue to firm heading into May, in line with typical seasonal trends. Butts remain well-positioned on value, which should spur retail features and domestic demand, while Cinco de Mayo buying out of Mexico lends near-term support despite broader export uncertainty.

Prices have rebounded sharply in recent weeks, confirming the pullback was seasonal rather than demand-driven. Reduced slaughter and lighter carcass weights should underpin values into summer, though modest year-over-year production gains will likely limit price rallies.

Values continue to edge higher as supply tightens. Further increases are expected through Q1 as regulatory impacts remain uncertain.

The white shrimp market remains steady overall. Lower‑cost product from India is helping offset higher costs from Central America. Current indications suggest values should hold near present levels or ease slightly, though elevated fuel expenses for sea freight continue to limit broader cost relief.

The black tiger shrimp market is generally steady, with some softer levels noted on headless shell‑on product and smaller sizes. Expectations point to stable or slightly lower levels ahead, constrained by persistent freight‑related cost pressures.

Values remain firm to slightly higher as Lent approaches. Large sizes remain extremely limited or unavailable due to regulatory restrictions affecting key harvest areas.

Warm‑water lobster has stabilized, with some softer offers emerging on larger sizes. High‑volume sizes remain steady and show early signs of strengthening as supply tightens.

Frozen cold‑water lobster has stabilized at elevated levels. Supplies remain tight across all sizes, though some downward pressure is emerging as May approaches.

Live cold‑water lobster conditions mirror the frozen market. Levels are steady at the higher end of the range, with tight supplies and early signs of easing pressure as May nears.

Lobster meat remains steady at elevated levels. Supplies are tight across all sizes, though slight downward pressure is beginning to appear heading into May.

Canadian snow crab remains extremely limited as the new season begins. Early forecasts indicate tight availability, particularly in larger sizes, keeping the market constrained.

King crab levels have stabilized, supported by the ongoing absence of Russian product. Some sizes remain limited, but overall availability is improving.

The tuna market remains steady, though several producing countries are experiencing quality and consistency challenges.

Market conditions remain steady, with no significant changes expected in the near‑term outlook.

Frozen Norwegian salmon has leveled off and remains steady. Some softening is anticipated in early June.

Frozen Chilean salmon mirrors the Norwegian market, holding steady with expectations for softer levels in early June.

Fresh salmon remains steady, with indications of potential softening in early June.

Supply from Asia remains consistent, while South and Central American availability remains strained and is expected to remain challenging through Spring 2026.

Market conditions remain steady, with no significant changes expected in upcoming forecasts.

Scallops remain firm overall, though some sizes have seen softer demand recently. With quotas significantly lower than last year, any relief is expected to be temporary.

Atlantic cod values continue to rise amid global supply constraints. Key sizes and cuts are being allocated, and meaningful relief is not expected until late Q2.

Pacific cod has tightened as buyers shift away from higher‑cost Atlantic cod. It remains a relative value, though availability of key sizes is limited.

Pollock remains steady, with no major changes expected in the near‑term outlook.

The season is fully underway. While boat prices have eased slightly from the opener, overall levels remain historically high, influenced heavily by fuel costs.

Milk production remains impressive, and is still trending steady to higher across the country as we approach peak spring flush season. US milk production report showed a healthy 2.3% increase in March vs. the prior year and another 8k head added to domestic dairy herds from last month. This is the largest US herd since 1993 and is keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, stronger YOY milk fat tests have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market. Overall supplies remain comfortable, while increased demand has kept them from becoming burdensome.

The butter market is seeing large buying activity as prices push back to their lowest levels since early February. Impressive milk output so far this year has helped keep butter churns full and running hard. This has been magnified by the stronger butterfat component within the milk, pushing even more cream onto the market. The USDA confirmed the elevated production levels as updated data showed February butter output up 9.1% from the prior year and setting a new record for the month. However, the cheaper prices earlier this year did support better domestic and global demand, keeping US cold storage levels limited and -11% YOY (March).

The cheese markets are rangebound again this week. Impressive milk output has helped keep cheese vats full and running hard. This was confirmed by the USDA as updated production data showed February cheese output up 3.9% from the prior year and setting a new record for the month. American and Cheddar output was slightly lower at +1.9% and +2.3% respectively. Stronger dairy margins of late should continue to limit dairy cow slaughter and keep plenty of milk coming to market during the spring flush season. Cold storage figures from the USDA showed that March stocks of all cheese, and American styles, have struggled in the early seasonal build period and are both the smallest for the month since 2020. Additional cost pressure on consumers should be a headwind to rallies.

The shell egg markets are consolidating at their multi-year lows this week as modest restocking demand is limiting additional downside. Overall flocks are still more than adequate as updated monthly flock data showed the US table egg laying flock as of April 1st at 307.2 million head, down 6 million from last month (normal seasonal) but +5% YOY. Seasonality would suggest softer prices into the summer months, but with prices already historically soft, further downside appears limited. Updated cage free layers for April showed little movement as flocks were only 172k head larger than the prior month as the historically small premium to conventional eggs continued to slow further cage free conversion efforts. However, this is still the largest cage free flock on record.

Soybean oil futures are seeing a modest correction this week on calmer US – Iran relations (for the moment) and subsequent declines in the energy markets. Energy market volatility remains a supportive feature as higher energy prices allow biofuel producers to pay more for edible oils and still maintain a margin. Domestic spot crude and refined soybean oil basis offers remain firm through Q3 as crushers look for tighter stocks ahead.

The July canola seed futures made a new high for the move last week, but is leaking lower this week as it follows the minor selloff in the soybean complex. Canada’s canola seed crush for March was up 15.3% from February and up over 7% year over year. RBD canola oil basis remains very firm through Q3.

The June palm oil futures are following the soybean oil market lower this week. Indonesia’s palm oil association said crude palm oil output in 2026 may fall by up to 2 million metric tons from 2025’s 51.66 million due to El Nino risks and fertilizer prices that have risen about 30% since the Middle East war began. Cargo surveyor ITS said that Malaysia’s April palm oil exports were down 15% from March.

Bell pepper production is transitioning to new growing regions in May. The Florida season is winding down; the Georgia crop is getting underway this week. Western production will move from Mexico to the California desert area over the next three weeks. Markon First Crop (MFC) and Markon Essentials (ESS) Green and Red Bell Peppers are available.

Green Bells

• The Mexican season will wrap up over the next week
  • Quality is average
  • Medium sizes and choice grades dominate availability
• The California desert season is well under way
  • Quality is very good
  • Extra-large peppers dominate harvests
• The Central and South Florida seasons will wind down over the next two weeks
• Georgia harvests are getting started this week
• Northern Florida supplies are creating a seamless transition between the Florida and Georgia seasons
• Expect steady markets over the next couple of weeks

Red Bells

• Mexican supplies are tight
  • The season will end earlier than in previous years (mid- to late May)
  • Quality is average; coloring/under ripeness is being reported
• The California desert season is expected to start on May 18; temperatures are forecast to increase to 100F this weekend which will help ripen crops
• Florida volume is low
• Prices will remain elevated over the next two weeks due to a tight transition

Celery prices continue to rise due to limited supplies. The Belle Glade, Florida season is ending this week. Oxnard, California will serve as the primary growing region until production starts in Salinas in early June.

California

• MFC and Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Celery are available
• Oxnard, California is currently the primary growing region
  • Harvests will continue through early to mid-June
  • The new crop Salinas season will begin in early June
• Production runs year-round in Santa Maria, California
• Overall quality is strong; however, Fusarium is affecting some lots and limiting harvestable supplies
• Expect elevated markets through the rest of May; relief is not expected until Salinas production ramps up early to mid-June

Florida

• The Belle Glade season is winding down and will conclude this week

Michigan

• The Michigan season will begin in early to mid-July

Romaine prices are escalating due to scarce supplies following erratic weather during planting and growth cycles in Salinas and Santa Maria, California. The iceberg market remains elevated but is easing as supplies incrementally increase. Green leaf supplies are tightening, pushing up prices slightly.

• MFC Green Leaf, Iceberg, and Romaine Lettuces are available; Markon Best Available (MBA) is being substituted as needed.
• Quality ranges from fair to good
  • Weights and densities vary greatly from field to field; internal and fringe burn are being found in some lots
  • Disease pressure, including Impatiens Necrotic Spot Virus (INSV) and Sclerotinia, is reducing harvestable yields
• Mexican supplies, crossing into South Texas, are available; however, the peak season for production and quality is ending and won’t resume until mid-October
• Production is expected to continue in Las Cruces, New Mexico through mid- to late May
• South Carolina harvests will run through mid-June
• Expect active markets for the next 10 to 14 days, at minimum

After a period of easing markets, lime prices are rising. MFC and ESS Limes remain available.

Mexico (into South Texas)

• Demand from upcoming holidays has pushed markets up
• Due to lack of rainfall in the major growing regions, 200-count and smaller limes make up 80% of available supply
• Quality is fair with discoloration and scarring occasionally present; continued high heat has put stress on the fruit and slightly lowered juice content
• Delays at the border are expected today (May 1) in observance of Labor Day in Mexico
• Prices will increase into next week as supply tightens

Colombia

• Large sizes (110 and 150-count) are more available
• More favorable weather has produced great quality and high juice content
• Pricing is trending down, but still higher than Mexican product

Hawaii

• Significant rains in April created harvest delays
• Supplies are set to increase next week due to groves starting to become accessible
• Fruit is showing superior juice content, but stylar end breakdown has been reported

Onions

The storage season for MFC Onions has ended in Oregon and Idaho. Washington storage supplies are winding down. Fresh-run MFC Onions are available in Texas and Southern California. Prices remain elevated.

Pacific Northwest

• Limited quantities of Washington red and yellow storage onions continue to ship
• Growers are transferring white onions from California to fill orders as needed
• Red and yellow storage supplies will be exhausted by the last week of May
• Quality is fair to good; growers are working to cull translucency, sprouting, and internal decay in remaining storage supplies
• Prices are steady

Mexico (into South Texas)

• Crossings are declining with the increased availability of domestic fresh onions
• Growers report a wide range of quality; soft texture, mechanical damage, and thin skins are to be expected with fresh-run onions
• Prices are slightly lower

Texas

• Fresh-run yellow, red, and white onions are available
• The Texas fresh run season is expected to finish in mid-May
• Quality is good; fresh-run onions will have thinner skins, softer texture, and higher moisture content compared to storage crop onions
• Markon recommends ordering for quick turns

California

• Southern California fresh-run onion harvests are continuing to ramp up
• Quality is good
  • Fresh-run onions will exhibit higher moisture content, thinner skins, and overall shorter shelf life
  • Some growers report increased seeder following fluctuating temperatures this spring
• Markon recommends ordering for quick turns
• Current supplies are dominated by medium and jumbo sizes; larger colossal and super colossal sizes remain limited as cooler weather slowed growth
• Expect steady prices over 7-10 days

Georgia

• Vidalia sweet onions are available; the season will run through early September
• Red and yellow onions are now available
• Medium and jumbo sizes dominate the crop
• Quality ranges from good to excellent
• FOB prices are slightly higher compared to Texas and California fresh-run onions

MFC Potatoes are available in Idaho and Washington. Storage crop pricing remains low. As the storage season winds down over the next several months, Markon recommends ordering for quick turns and keeping inventories tight due to shorter shelf life.

Idaho

• Storage crop MFC Norkotah and Burbank Potatoes are being shipped
• Norkotah storage supplies are expected to be depleted by late June
• Burbank volume is slowly ramping up; the crop is dominated by small sizes
• The gradual shift from Norkotahs to Burbanks will result in fewer 40- through 80-count potatoes
• Pressure and shoulder bruising are beginning to show in late-season storage supplies, but overall quality remains strong; these issues (soft, external indents) result from constant contact with adjacent potatoes, or the floor, while raw product sits in storage piles

Washington

• Storage crop MFC Norkotah Potatoes are available
• Size is dominated by larger counts
• Quality is very good
• Markets remain steady

Colorado & Wisconsin

• All Colorado sizes are available with good mixer volume; demand for large, 40- and 50-count supplies is active
• Wisconsin yields are dominated by small, 90- to 120-count sizes
• Quality is good
• Prices continue to hold steady

The California harvest has officially wrapped up, and unfortunately, the volume from Mexico is much lower than originally anticipated. The good news is that California’s season is set to start up in early August, which should bring much-needed relief and restore availability.

• Mexican supplies are extremely limited due to previous weather conditions
• Expect a supply gap until August
• California-grown seedless lemons will begin shipping again in early August

California lemon supplies are tightening, especially 165- and 200-count sizes, as the crop is favoring larger fruit (95- to 140-count stocks). Orange supplies remain extremely limited, especially for the 113- and 138-count sizes across all growing regions.

Lemons

• MFC and ESS Lemons are available  
• Districts One and Two (the San Joaquin Valley and Southern California) are currently in production
• 165- and 200-count sizes are limited; yields are dominated by 95- through 140-count lemons
• Quality is good; some greening and scarring have been reported
• Expect a slow yet steady price climb as demand increases over the next six to eight weeks

Oranges

• MFC and ESS Navel and Valencia Oranges are available out of California 
• Oranges are currently being shipped out of California, Arizona, Florida, and Morocco (into New Jersey)
• The California Valencia season has begun in a limited manner; Navel supplies are expected to run until early May
• Mexican Valencias (crossing into Nogales, Arizona) are expected to ship into June
• Florida Valencia oranges are on the market
• Moroccan Valencias continue shipping off the East Coast
• Small sizes (113- through 138-count oranges) remain extremely limited
• Expect good quality and elevated markets