Market Outlook

Ribeyes continue to carry a firm market tone into April, even as the calendar typically points to a more stable period. Retail buyers have been increasingly active in securing coverage, tightening available supply and supporting competition for product.

Prices are expected to continue strengthening through Memorial Day as spring demand builds and supplies remain especially tight. Buyers should also take note that Strip Loins are trading at a notable premium relative to Tenderloins and Ribeyes at current levels.

Prices have rallied ahead of schedule as supplies tighten. Inelastic foodservice demand provides a steady floor, while sparse retail featuring adds to the firm tone.

Prices are expected to hold firm through month-end, bucking the typical seasonal pattern of steady values. Tri-tip demand has expanded considerably into new U.S. markets in recent years, intensifying competition for a shrinking supply base.

Top butts remain a standout within the chuck complex, supported by broad loin strength and sustained retail interest. Demand momentum is expected to remain favorable through late spring as supply remains managed.

Prices have responded to a confluence of factors, including slower overall beef production and seasonal St. Patrick’s Day demand. Values are expected to continue tracking above year-ago levels as production remains soft and retailers begin booking product ahead of Memorial Day.

Prices are expected to hold a strong tone in the weeks ahead, with the usual seasonal firming underpinned by increasingly tight beef production.

Prices will maintain a strong tone into April. Retail and foodservice demand should remain robust as buyers begin positioning ahead of Cinco de Mayo — a dynamic that, paired with tightening supplies, should keep values well-supported.

Prices are expected to stay elevated in the near term, though fading seasonal demand and improving spot load availability may begin to push buyers to the sidelines, eventually putting downward pressure on values.

Ground chuck demand has remained steady, supported by consistent retail movement for higher-quality grind. As grilling season approaches, demand expectations remain constructive.

Prices have continued to climb through March, driven by robust retail demand for Ground Beef and tightening fresh lean supplies. With grilling season on the horizon, demand is only expected to build, keeping upward pressure on values.

Middle-tiered WOGs maintain a full, steady rating. While current production demand is slightly lighter than previously observed, market participants remain optimistic and continue to hold a bullish outlook for the coming weeks. Production is being managed carefully and reserved for premium opportunities. The smaller-weight categories remain steady, though sustained premiums have yet to materialize, while the heavier-weight line continues to trade in an uneventful manner.

Breasts and front halves continue to trend higher, supported by ongoing increases in deboning activity. At the same time, demand for jumbo and medium boneless breast meat has moderated due to reduced needs from the further processing sector and a softer retail pull. Even so, available volumes continue to transact at premium levels. Select boneless breast meat remains extremely tight, with buyers actively searching for supply and encountering limited success. As demand for boneless breast meat has softened slightly, interest in chunk and trim meat has also become more mixed, with values holding steady while the market seeks clearer direction. Tenders remain in high demand, with buyers actively pursuing limited availability and values strengthening accordingly.

Wings continue to trade in a flat and uneventful fashion, with no notable changes in demand or overall market direction.

In the back half, bone-in items continue to hold a full, steady rating, though buyers are displaying increased price sensitivity on whole legs and thighs. Fresh leg quarters remain actively sought and continue to sell at premium levels. Leg quarters and drums are readily absorbed by the domestic market, while export activity, despite some uncertainty tied to global conditions, remains supportive. Thigh meat and leg meat are particularly strong, with limited spot availability driving aggressive pursuit and transactions occurring at sharply higher values.

Frozen whole turkeys are experiencing strong interest for both near-term and forward delivery, with available volumes moving efficiently through the market. Fresh whole turkeys are also finding consistent placement, indicating broad-based demand across product forms as buyers secure coverage.

Consumer-sized turkey breasts remain balanced with supplies barely meeting current demand, resulting in a full, steady market tone. Basted offerings in particular continue to show strengthening interest. Institutional-sized breasts are firmly positioned, supported by advancing demand patterns and tightening availability, which is contributing to a more competitive buying environment.

Bellies are benefiting from increased foodservice and QSR promotional activity, complemented by a gradual pickup in retail featuring. Despite higher overall pork production levels compared to last year, the category remains sensitive to demand shifts due to historically lean cold storage inventories, keeping the market closely tied to consumption trends and near-term buying interest.

The loin complex is holding a stable to firm market tone consistent with normal seasonal patterns heading into April. Retail demand is expected to remain supportive, while export activity provides additional stability in the near term, helping to balance available supplies with ongoing demand.

Ribs experienced seasonal softening through March following elevated conditions earlier in the year. Looking ahead, strengthening interest is expected as ribs remain competitive relative to other proteins, supporting increased featuring activity and improving retail demand as grilling season approaches.

Butts are facing near-term pressure from elevated cold storage inventories, which currently sit well above historical norms, alongside muted export demand. Market conditions are expected to improve later in the spring as inventories begin to tighten and seasonal grilling demand gains momentum.

The ham complex remains challenged by ample cold storage supplies and sluggish export demand, which continue to absorb prospective demand increases. These factors are expected to limit any near-term improvement, keeping the market weighed down despite periodic demand fluctuations.

Blue swimming crab supply continues to gradually tighten, with ongoing regulatory uncertainty contributing to a firmer market outlook as the year progresses.

The white shrimp market remains broadly balanced, with lower-cost imports from India offsetting higher-cost offerings from Central America. Overall supply and demand are aligned, supporting a steady near-term outlook.

Black tiger shrimp conditions remain steady overall, though selective softness has emerged in smaller sizes and headless shell-on product. Market expectations point toward continued firmness into the next season.

Wild Gulf shrimp availability is constrained, particularly for larger sizes, which remain extremely limited due to fishing restrictions in key catch areas. Seasonal demand continues to support a firm market tone.

Warm water lobster markets have stabilized, with some easing observed in larger sizes, while core high-volume sizes remain steady and are beginning to tighten as supply diminishes.

Frozen cold water lobster supplies remain tight across all size ranges, keeping the market well supported with limited relief anticipated in the near term.

Live cold water lobster availability continues to be constrained across sizes, sustaining a firm market environment amid ongoing supply limitations.

Lobster meat remains balanced, supported by limited raw material availability despite ample frozen tail inventories. Tightening inputs are expected to influence market conditions in the coming weeks.

Canadian snow crab remains extremely tight ahead of the upcoming season, with constrained supply expectations continuing to shape a strong market backdrop.

King crab supply remains limited due to the absence of Russian product, while Japanese imports have supplemented availability at the upper end of the size spectrum, particularly in larger counts.

Ahi and yellowfin tuna markets remain firm, supported by elevated import costs and regulatory impacts that continue to restrict supply from certain origin countries.

The pangasius complex remains well balanced, with steady supply chains and no meaningful changes expected in near- or medium-term market conditions.

Frozen Norwegian salmon has entered its typical seasonal strengthening phase, driven by reduced Canadian availability and seasonal production declines in Chile.

Frozen Chilean salmon is also experiencing seasonal tightening as production enters lower summer output months, contributing to a strengthening market environment.

Fresh salmon demand has strengthened in conjunction with Lent-related consumption, leading to gradual tightening across fillet markets.

Asian supply remains consistent, though South and Central American availability continues to face constraints, with supply challenges expected to persist through Spring 2026.

Catfish fillet supplies remain well aligned with demand, and no significant shifts are anticipated based on current forward-looking indicators.

Scallop markets continue to firm as inventories of larger sizes diminish, compounded by projected quota reductions for the upcoming season that further constrain future supply.

Atlantic cod availability remains limited on a global scale, with key sizes and cuts allocated across major suppliers and minimal relief expected before late Q2.

Pacific cod has tightened as demand shifts away from Atlantic cod, though it continues to offer relative value despite limited availability in preferred sizes.

Pollock remains one of the more balanced whitefish options, with stable supply and demand fundamentals and no near-term disruptions anticipated.

The fresh halibut season has recently opened, with early landings beginning to move through distribution channels and initial volumes setting the tone for the season ahead.

Milk production remains strong and continues to trend steady to higher nationwide as the industry approaches peak spring flush conditions. The latest U.S. milk production report showed a significant year-over-year increase in February output, alongside continued growth in domestic dairy herd numbers, marking the largest U.S. herd size since 1993. These factors are ensuring ample milk availability to meet processor needs. On the cream side, stronger year-over-year milk fat tests have resulted in elevated cream supplies entering the market. Overall availability remains comfortable, though increased demand is preventing supplies from becoming excessive.

Butter market dynamics have shifted as recent momentum has eased. Export activity was notably strong earlier in the year, though forward expectations appear less robust. Several factors are creating headwinds for exports, including broader economic uncertainty, higher freight costs, and currency strength. USDA data indicates butter production increased year over year and month over month, with output expected to remain elevated into April as butterfat availability persists and churns continue operating near capacity. While cold storage inventories remain below last year due to earlier export strength, stocks are now building seasonally as producers take advantage of continued cream availability.

Cheese production and market activity have remained active, supported by several months of strong export movement and competitive positioning in global markets. However, recent market shifts combined with economic and logistical challenges may temper forward export momentum. Domestic consumption has been more limited, placing increased emphasis on export channels to manage product flow. Cold storage levels remain slightly below year-ago volumes due to sustained international interest. Cheese production posted a notable year-over-year increase in January, and strong milk output is expected to support continued elevated production levels through the spring flush period.

Shell egg market conditions have softened following recent expansion in domestic laying flocks. Updated monthly data showed counter-seasonal flock growth and a sizable year-over-year increase in the total number of laying hens. While Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza remains an ongoing concern, available supplies in the near term are adequate. Retail demand has shown improvement, while foodservice demand remains more subdued. Cage-free hen numbers also increased significantly in February, resulting in the largest cage-free flock on record and ensuring ample supply moving through the market.

Soybean oil continues to closely track movements in the energy complex, with price action driven largely by geopolitical disruptions and evolving biofuel policy expectations. The conflict in the Middle East and related energy market volatility remain central drivers, while forthcoming U.S. renewable fuel guidance is expected to provide additional clarity. Domestic market activity has shown firming indications despite lingering weakness in competing global supplies, keeping the market well supported.

Canola futures remain elevated and closely aligned with movements in soybeans and soybean oil. Expectations for expanded acreage in the upcoming planting season reflect strong market incentives, while continued firmness in oil demand and solid crush margins support the underlying tone. Market participants remain focused on supply responses and forward demand strength as the year progresses.

Palm oil has continued to strengthen modestly, narrowing its discount to soybean oil in the global market. Export demand from Malaysia has improved meaningfully, supported by competitive positioning relative to other vegetable oils. This renewed export momentum has helped underpin market conditions and sustain positive sentiment.

Blueberries are extremely limited; prices are elevated. The offshore season has ended. Florida/Georgia production is delayed due to recent freezing temperatures. Mexican fruit will be shipped until the San Joaquin Valley season begins in late April.

Offshore 

• Both the Chilean and Peruvian seasons have officially ended
• The market is elevated; supplies are limited

Mexico

• Volume has increased 60% since last week
• Yields are expected to tighten over the next two weeks
• Quality is good; some early breakdown has been reported
• Expect rising prices and tight stocks

Florida

• Abnormally low temperatures over the past month have delayed the season by three to four weeks
• Southern Florida experienced approximately 20% damage from the freezing temperatures
• Other areas north of Orlando saw 40-50% damage
• Suppliers are assessing damages and expect significant losses
• Markets are up; stocks are scarce

Although honeydew supplies remain limited, availability is beginning to stabilize. Cantaloupe yields are average but tightening. The domestic season will not begin until early May.

Cantaloupe – Central America

• Production remains adequate in the near term, with a slight seasonal decline expected over the coming weeks while production winds down
• Current sizing is primarily 9s and 12s, with some larger fruit expected later next week
• Quality continues to perform well, with improving external color and strong flavor profiles
• Expect markets to trend higher through April as the crop transitions north to Mexico and the U.S.

Honeydew – Central America

• Supplies remain extremely limited, though recent production improvements are helping to stabilize coverage
• Availability is expected to increase each week as harvesting recovers
• Large sizes remain particularly limited, requiring order flexibility
• Expect markets to begin easing next week as new crop supplies ramp up

Honeydew – Mexico

• Quality is improving due to new production in Northern Mexico
• Current supplies are dominated by large sizes (4s and 5s), with some 6s available
• Supplies remain tight, but volume will build over the next two weeks as Northern Mexico gains momentum
• Markets are firm in the near term, but should ease next week

California lemons are tightening, especially 165- and 200-count sizes. The crop is currently yielding mostly larger fruit in the 95- through 140-count range. The California Navel season is winding down; supplies of 113- and 138-count fruit remain extremely limited. Some growers have started to transition into the Valencia variety, but those stocks are limited as well.

Lemons

• Markon First Crop (MFC) and Essentials (ESS) Lemons are available  
• Districts One and Two (the San Joaquin Valley and Southern California) are currently in production
• 165- and 200-count sizes are limited; yields are dominated by 95- through 140-count lemons
• Quality is good; some greening and scarring have been reported
• Expect a slow yet steady price climb as demand increases over the next six to eight weeks

Oranges

• MFC and ESS Navel and Valencia Oranges are available out of California 
• Oranges are currently being shipped out of California, Arizona, Texas, Florida, and New Jersey (imported Moroccan)
  • The California Valencia season has begun in a limited manner; Navel supplies are expected to run until early May
  • The South Texas season will end in mid-April
  • Mexican Valencias (crossing into Nogales, Arizona) are expected to run into June
  • Florida Valencia oranges are on the market
  • Moroccan Valencias continue shipping off the East Coast
• Small sizes (113- through 138-count oranges) remain extremely limited in California and South Texas
• Expect good quality and elevated markets

The Chilean stone fruit season is now past its peak, with supplies gradually tightening. The Chilean peach season concluded abruptly because of continued quality concerns. The domestic stone fruit season is anticipated to begin in late April, requiring close monitoring of availability until then.

Peaches

• Import peach season has ended abruptly
• A supply gap of approximately four weeks is expected before the domestic season begins
• Extremely limited availability is anticipated until domestic production ramps up

Nectarines

• Nectarine volumes are declining week over week
• Current supplies are projected to last through late April
• Quality is good; sugar levels range from 11 to 14 Brix
• Tightening availability is expected as the season progresses

Plums

• Volume is high
• Quality is good; sugar levels range from 12 to 14 Brix
• The season will run through May
• High prices will persist until the domestic season starts in May

Lime prices remain elevated; yields are extremely limited. Upcoming Holy Week disruptions are expected to keep supplies tight. MFC and ESS Limes remain available.

Mexico (into South Texas)

• Rainfall remains insufficient to drive meaningful size gain; small fruit dominates crops
• Current sizing remains concentrated in the 230-, 250-, and 275-count range; larger sizes are scarce
• No. 2 volume is low, especially in large sizes
• Occasional oil spotting and skin breakdown have been reported
• No harvesting is expected past Wednesday, with minimal crossings and reduced production during Holy Week
• Markets are expected to remain elevated through the week of April 16

Colombia

• Weather conditions have returned to normal
• Rainfall impact was less disruptive to volume than initially expected
• Near‑term availability remains relatively steady
• Holy Week is expected to impact arrivals
• Expect high prices to persist through mid-April

Hawaii

• The crop remains intact, but continued wet conditions are limiting production
• Field access remains restricted, keeping harvesting in a holding pattern
• Limited volume may be possible on a day‑to‑day basis as conditions allow
• Weather trends appear more favorable in the long term, supporting improved access once fields dry out
• Prices are higher, following the upward trend with Mexico and Colombia

Micro Cilantro is extremely limited due to recent weather-related growing challenges.

• The West Coast’s fluctuating temperatures have negatively impacted crop quality, resulting in lower yields and tighter supplies
• Demand continues to exceed available supply
• Yields are low as growers are culling heat-related quality issues
• Expect limited supplies for the next 10-14 days; availability will gradually increase as growing conditions stabilize

Yields are tightening throughout the industry. Blueberry demand outpaces available supplies. Blackberry and raspberry volume is average; quality is generally good, with minimal defects despite recent heat.

Blueberries

• Prices are elevated
• The Chilean and Peruvian seasons have ended; import shipments have officially concluded
• Mexican-grown supplies are meeting current demands
• The Florida/Georgia growing region is set to begin production next week on a limited basis
• Stocks will remain snug through April, then increase once California’s San Joaquin Valley season starts in early May

Blackberries/Raspberries

• Markets are up
• Harvesting is past its seasonal peak in Central Mexico; labor challenges are also impacting overall availability
• Limited production has begun in Baja, Mexico
• Expect tight stocks through March; volume will start to increase in April

Storage crop MFC Onions are available in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. Fresh-run MFC Onions are available in Texas.

Pacific Northwest

• Washington, Idaho, and Oregon growers expect storage supplies ship through the week of April 20; several suppliers may continue to ship into early May
• Quality ranges from good to fair; growers are sorting for common end-of-season issues such as internal browning, bruising, decay, sprouting, and translucency
• Markon recommends ordering for quick turns and limiting inventory to avoid quality problems
• White onion markets will slowly increase until California production begins in late April
  • Both the Mexican and local storage seasons are ending
  • Some growers have begun transferring fresh-run white onions from Texas to fill orders
• Expect steady red and yellow prices over the next 7-10 days

Utah

• Storage supplies have been depleted
• Some sheds will remain in operation, transferring product from other regions to fill orders as needed

Mexico

• Yellow, red, and white onions are sporadically crossing into South Texas
• White onion shipments are decreasing as the season will wrap up over the next three to four weeks
• Quality varies by supplier; green cast, soft texture, mechanical damage, and thin skins are to be expected with fresh-run onions
• Prices will increase slightly next week due to decreased production in observation of Holy Week and Easter

Texas

• Fresh-run red, yellow, and white onions are available
• All sizes and colors are available
  • White onions are tightening
  • Demand has increased as the Mexican season is ending
• Due to a Texas marketing order, No. 2 grade onions will not be available
• Quality is good due to ideal growing conditions; fresh-run onions will exhibit higher moisture content, thinner skins, and overall shorter shelf-life
• Markon recommends ordering for quick turns
• Expect steady red and yellow prices over the next 7-10 days; white onions could see a market increase, depending on demand

California’s key growing regions—Santa Maria, Oxnard, Salinas, and Watsonville—are benefiting from clear forecasts and ideal growing conditions. Quality is improving across all districts. Pricing is beginning to trend downward as supplies increase.

Santa Maria, California 

• MFC Strawberries are available
• Berry size is medium; counts have gotten smaller, averaging 18 to 22 pieces per 1-pound clamshell
• Quality is good; issues include bruising and white shoulders
• Prices will inch down as weather conditions improve

Oxnard, California

• MFC Strawberries are available
• Berry size is medium; counts have gotten smaller, averaging 18 to 22 pieces per 1-pound clamshell
• Defects are minimal; growers report some white shoulders and packing-related bruising
• Markets will ease as weather conditions improve

Watsonville/Salinas

• Berry size is large; counts range from 10-15 berries per 1-pound clamshell
• Volume is increasing daily
• Most of the damaged fruit has been culled
• Prices will begin to decrease as weather conditions improve

Sweet potato markets are poised to rise. Lower yields along with unexpected surge in demand during January and February has suppliers keeping their remaining storage supplies tight. Prices are anticipated to climb over the summer months until new crop stocks are harvested in late August or early September.

California

• Remaining storage supplies are adequate
• Quality is very good
• Strong East Coast demand is pushing markets higher

Louisiana

• Very limited supplies remain; the season is expected to finish by first week of April
• Remaining quality ranges from fair to good
• New crop harvests will resume in September

Mississippi

• Dry summer months reduced overall yields for winter and spring storage
• Quality is good
• Lower volume and strong demand will push prices higher

North Carolina

• Unexpected demand in January and February has forced suppliers to keep remaining storage inventories tight
• Quality is good
• Markets are expected to increase over the next several months

Tomatoes are extremely limited; demand exceeds supply. Florida’s freezing temperatures killed many acres last month; Mexican yields are also low. MFC Tomatoes are limited; packer label may be substituted as needed.

Rounds

• Mexico’s main growing region of Sinaloa is winding down earlier than in previous years due to poor weather and disease pressure
  • Overall volume is low and unable to meet current demand
  • Quality has been inconsistent; additional grading is required at pack out
  • The upcoming Holy week (March 30 -April 5) will reduce labor and overall production
• Florida supplies are extremely tight following recent freezing temperatures, strong winds, and frost damage
  • Quality is fair; additional grading is required at pack out
  • Expect extremely snug supplies until mid- to late April
  • South Florida is expected to see a slight increase in volume in two weeks, but overall stocks will remain limited
• Due to very tight supplies, size and variety substitutions must be considered, especially for Roma orders
• Expect high prices over the next two weeks when new crop harvesting gets underway in late April

Romas

• Mexican supplies are snug due to the recent heat wave; increased disease pressure is lowering yields
  • Medium sizes are most readily available
  • Quality is average
• Florida stocks will remain limited until mid- to late April
• Quality is fair; higher grading is required
• Expect stronger markets over the next week with volatility until late April

Grape & Cherry Varieties

• Florida volume is low due to freezing weather conditions this past winter
• Mexican supplies are very snug; the recent heat wave destroyed many fields
• Expect higher prices over the next two weeks