Market Outlook
BEEF
Beef prices are expected to hold steady through October as robust demand for middle meats offsets the moderating price environment across other cuts. Foodservice should benefit from buyers taking a more aggressive purchasing posture into fall to secure product ahead of the holidays. On the supply side, the USDA’s October WASDE marked the eighth consecutive monthly downward revision to 2026 beef production, now forecast at 24.8 billion pounds, the lowest since 2015 and roughly 1 billion below the initial estimate. The 2027 figure was cut further to 24.7 billion as lighter carcass weights and slower feedlot marketings reflect the persistent below-year-ago placement trend, though the moderating pace of year-over-year declines suggests herd contraction may be nearing its floor even as the path to recovery remains gradual. Beef in cold storage rose 2.2% from July to August, the largest build since 2021 and well above seasonal norms, on higher imports and potentially softer sales, leaving stocks 5.2% above year-ago but still below the five-year average. With seasonal demand shifting from grilling to roasting cuts, four variables will drive direction: packer profitability, Mexican cattle import pace, U.S. herd rebuilding progress, and the trajectory of softening domestic demand.
Prices have continued to strengthen in recent weeks, ahead of the typical seasonal timeline for values to rise. Foodservice buyers are expected to remain particularly active for prime and choice-graded rib items through early to mid-December, when holiday buying typically concludes.
/ Market conditions are expected to remain steady to firm through October, bucking typical seasonal softening trends. Demand fundamentals continue to provide support as buyers maintain coverage needs heading into the fourth quarter. While some seasonal moderation is expected, the overall supply-demand balance should remain conducive to a stable market environment through year-end.
Market conditions are expected to maintain a neutral tone, consistent with typical seasonal patterns. More moderate retail and foodservice demand is anticipated to temper market momentum through year-end, resulting in a generally balanced supply-and-demand environment.
Prices are set to neutralize into October after recent strength, with grilling demand behind the market and retail buyers shifting attention away from tri-tips toward other beef items.
Market conditions are expected to trend steady to slightly weaker heading into October as retail demand moderates with the transition into the fall season. Despite softer seasonal demand patterns, underlying supply-and-demand fundamentals are anticipated to support an orderly market environment through year-end.
/ Prices are expected to remain supported despite typical seasonal trends pointing to a more neutral bias, as foodservice promotional and limited-time offer activity offsets the recent pullback in retail demand.
Prices are set to stay soft on their typical seasonal path, with annual lows historically carved out in the back half of October as demand eases and supplies build, offering little near-term catalyst for a rebound.
/ Prices are expected to shift into a more rangebound pattern following the recent rally, as typical October seasonal softness reasserts itself and retail carcass trade-down activity from higher-value items begins to slow at current price levels.
/ Prices will maintain a softer tone through October, consistent with typical seasonal trends. Demand for rounds tends to moderate into the fall, which should keep inside round prices trading in a relatively narrow range in the near term.
Prices are set to find a more balanced tone, supported by steady retail demand for quality ground beef, with a steady to lower price trend similar to last year’s pattern expected to carry through year-end 2026.
Prices are expected to trade steady to slightly lower on seasonal softness into October, with tight fresh lean trimming supplies providing strong underlying support and limiting the downside.
POULTRY
Demand for several of the fresh items in the chicken market feels a little frigid, but the frozen market is in its element. Lackluster foodservice demand throughout the US continues to pressure several lines such as the white meat items and wings. Meanwhile, the lower pricing of US offerings compared to Brazilian production influences increased interest from export, and higher prices are noted for items such as frozen boneless breast meat, export drums, and breasts and front halves.
All sizes within the WOG complex remain on steady footing. The majority of production continues to move through established commitments, limiting availability in the spot market. At the same time, supply remains generally well aligned with current demand requirements, resulting in a balanced market environment with little change in overall fundamentals.
/ Increased interest from Canadian buyers for breasts and front halves has contributed to a firmer market tone. Limited seller inventories and strong confidence among market participants continue to support favorable trading conditions, with transactions reflecting strengthening demand. In contrast, the jumbo boneless breast meat segment remains under pressure due to subdued foodservice demand and ample production levels. Meanwhile, NAE, medium, and select boneless breast meat markets continue to exhibit stable fundamentals, with supply and demand generally remaining in balance.
Limited foodservice demand continues to weigh on the tender and wing markets, though many sellers remain reluctant to pursue lower values. As a result, trading activity has been relatively slow, with market fundamentals supporting a generally steady, albeit cautious, outlook. Supply and demand remain closely aligned, with participants continuing to monitor buying interest for signs of a change in direction.
The back-half complex remains well supported, with fresh legs, leg quarters, drums, and thighs continuing to clear efficiently through both retail and export channels. Export demand has been particularly strong for this time of year, providing additional support across key dark meat categories. Drumstick demand remains favorable, with jumbo and medium production moving readily amid active buyer interest. Meanwhile, thigh meat and leg meat markets continue to exhibit steady fundamentals. Although production has become somewhat more available, trading activity remains supported by consistent demand, resulting in a stable-to-firm market tone across the segment.
/ Frozen whole-body turkeys open the day under an at least steady rating. Supplies are barely adequate to short across most points of sale. Sellers with finite availability on hand maintain supportive to higher asked-price expectations. Fresh-pack turkeys follow a similar path and deserve a steady to full steady undertone. Consumer- and institutional-sized breasts are both well-established at listed levels, with most indications painting a full steady picture for these lines.
Fresh and frozen breast meat maintains a balanced and well-supported rating. That said, isolated pockets of seasonally active demand for frozen production are interspersed throughout the market, spanning both domestic and export offerings. We rate these lines as steady pending additional market-moving bids, sales, and offers.
PORK
Pork prices are expected to remain soft through the end of October as lackluster demand meets seasonal production increases in an already well-stocked market. Despite October marking National Pork Month, significant demand headwinds loom in the months ahead. Retail faces pressure from elevated gasoline prices, reduced SNAP participation, and growing GLP-1 adoption, while exports, at 26% of total production, contend with intensifying competition from Brazil and other suppliers. The USDA lowered total use for 2026 and 2027 by 90 million and 135 million pounds respectively in the October Supply and Demand report, with production cut on a smaller June-August pig crop and lower September-November farrowing intentions from the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Cold storage remains comfortable at 436.3 million pounds in August, down 0.8% from July, up 12.0% from last year, and 5.6% below the five-year average for the month. Cutout values have come under steady pressure as slaughter climbed back above 2.6 million head weekly, with heavier carcass weights adding to the burden as compressed packer margins and packers prioritizing their own inventory slow the pace of marketings.
Prices are set to hold a weak tone through year-end, as seasonal pressure, soft foodservice demand weighed down by declining breakfast consumption, and rising production keep the market bearish. Further downside looks limited, however, as current levels should begin drawing renewed buying interest.
Prices are set to stay under soft seasonal pressure through October, with loin demand finding modest relative value support offset by adequate supplies keeping the market well stocked.
Prices will maintain a softer tone during October, respecting seasonal trends for the month. Demand from both domestic sales channels and export markets will be soft, putting more loads of product on the market to be absorbed.
Prices are set to trade steady to lower on seasonal trends, with butts offering compelling relative value and increased retail featuring expected to limit further downside.
Prices are expected to maintain a steady tone through October, consistent with typical seasonal trends for the month. While increased supplies are anticipated to enter the market, continued export interest from Asia and Mexico should provide an offsetting source of demand support.
SEAFOOD
Seasonal changes and yields are affecting the outlook of seafood.
/ White shrimp market remains stable overall, driven by lower inbound product price from India offsetting higher costs of product out of central America. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention. Expecting prices to rise in Q3/4 with new tariffs.
/ Black shrimp market remains stable overall, with some lower pricing noted on Headless shell on and smaller sizes. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention. expecting prices to rise in Q3/4 with new tariffs.
Pricing remains firm, large sizes (U10-U8) remain very tight to unavailable due to MMPA restrictions on key catch areas for these sizes.
Warm water lobster has stabilized with some lower pricing offers presenting in larger sizes. High volume sizes (5-8oz) remain stable and is showing signs of increase as supply tightens.
Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.
Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.
Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.
Canadian snow crab has leveled off in the market, expect to see upward pricing movement in December.
Prices have leveled off with the continued lack of Russian product in the market, some sizes remain scarce but product is available.
Prices remain stable at current levels, several countries are experiencing quality and consistency issues.
Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.
/ Salmon market has started to increase ahead of season, salmon likely to be very expensive in Q1/2.
/ Salmon market has started to increase ahead of season, salmon likely to be very expensive in Q1/2.
/ Salmon market has started to increase ahead of season, salmon likely to be very expensive in Q1/2.
Supply remains stable out of Asia, South and Central American supply remains strained and continues to be an issue.
/ Market to slightly increase in coming weeks as processors experience higher labor and fuel costs.
Scallop market has leveled off at current pricing, expect market to increase in late November.
Prices continue to rise as availability remains strained globally, key sizes and cuts are being allocated across all major suppliers.
Pacific cod has leveled off at record high levels, expect pricing to continue to climb in Q4/Q1 as B season continues to be well below projection.
Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.
/ MMPA is still an unknown – pricing remains high but stable.
Season is in full swing, boat pricing is down slightly from the opener but prices remain at record levels – predominant factor is fuel prices.
DAIRY
Milk production continues to run at record levels despite some seasonally tighter availability nearby.
The domestic shell egg market is attempting to stabilize just above the summer lows as renewed order interest emerges.
Milk production continues to run at record levels despite some seasonally tighter availability nearby. The reduced summer output is giving way to cooler temperatures and increased productivity, while ongoing bottling demand has created a more competitive situation for fluid supplies. US milk production in August jumped 1.7% YOY as domestic heads remained at their 33-year highs, keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, strong milk fat tests and protein demand have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market. Overall supplies remain comfortable, while firm powder markets are keeping milk values rangebound.
/ The domestic butter market is finding support after reaching its lowest levels since February 2021. Recent demand trends in the US have favored milk solids and protein (NFDM and Whey), leaving excess butterfat on the market for Class II and IV manufacturers. Record milk production has kept abundant supplies of cream coming to market and butter churns continuing to run at record levels, and demand has not quite been able to keep up. Updated cold storage levels of butter showed disappoint seasonal drawdowns the past two months as August stocks came in 10.3% higher than last year. Combined July and August drawdowns was the smallest since the 2020 COVID year, totaling 16.3 mil. lbs. vs. 69 mil. last year and 57 mil. on average. The USDA reported August butter production set another monthly record and was 6.3% higher than last year. Even with strong domestic offtake, this is keeping the market extremely well supplied into the seasonal stockpiling time of year.
/ The domestic block cheese market found renewed life this past week after moving lower for seven consecutive weeks. Better order interest helped prices work higher this past week, but indications suggest that many have already bought about as much cheese as they can hold which should be a headwind to significant rallies. Updated US milk production in August set a new monthly record and was 1.7% higher than last year, while dairy herds are at 33-year highs. Updated production data showed total cheese output in August up 1.4% from last year and a new monthly record. Finding demand remains a daunting task as domestic demand has seen YOY declines in 4 of the past 5 months due to economic uncertainty pressuring consumer retail and foodservice trends. Even with record exports (up 9% from the prior year in August) the USDA reported cold storage levels increased counter seasonally this past month. Stagnant domestic orders and the need to stay competitive into the export market should limit upside and keep prices rangebound into the end of the year.
/ The domestic shell egg market is attempting to stabilize just above the summer lows as renewed order interest emerges. Buyers (both retail and foodservice) had adjusted tactics to just replenish inventories to cover immediate needs this summer, but now with prices again providing historical value, depleted pipelines are starting to be refilled. There are still plenty of eggs coming to market, but the market is again coming into a better balance. The forward outlook has some risk factors that should limit downside, with HPAI concerns starting back up with the fall migration season in September and October, along with the normal increase in retail and foodservice demand into the colder months of the year.
GRAINS & OILS
Grain and oilseed markets have stabilized, trading largely sideways following the USDA’s October Supply and Demand report, that delivered the second major bearish corn surprise in recent weeks. The USDA reversing earlier yield cuts to raise yields 2.7 bu/acre and push ending stocks to 1.85 billion bushels, against the 1.5 billion carryout that had been the prevailing narrative days earlier. Soybeans were modestly bearish with yields up slightly and stocks little changed, while wheat stocks topped expectations as the USDA cut HRS and HRW exports on the slow start to this year’s program. Corn conditions rebounded 2 points to 56% good-to-excellent and soybeans held at 57% in the season’s final update. Crop Progress showed soybean harvest at 46%, trailing the 50% average, while corn reached 33%, below the 39% average, as producers prioritized soybeans ahead of incoming rain. Winter wheat planting hit 51%, in line with expectations but behind the 58% average. U.S. wheat continues to shrug off Black Sea headline risk as Russian Baltic capacity and Indian flows offset disruptions, though narrowing inter-origin spreads and softer European prices skew risk to the upside, while the approaching Southern Hemisphere harvest and quiet global trade limit directional conviction. Energy markets continue higher as ongoing Middle East conflict and an overnight Russian strike on Ukrainian power infrastructure breached the so-called Trump energy truce. Fixed income and equities have looked past the escalation, focusing rising inflation. The hotter prints put a Fed rate hike this month back on the table and has lent strength to the dollar, a modest headwind for commodities.
The soybean oil market is pushing towards the lower end of its recent range this week. Increased feedstock competition from imported and domestic tallow and used cooking oil has helped keep the market contained, while lofty diesel fuel and energy prices are limiting additional weakness amid supportive biofuel mandates. The higher SBO prices earlier this month have kept feedstock imports heading to the US, which has taken some of the demand off the SBO market, along with the expectations for new crop crush to ramp up.
The November canola seed futures are leaking lower this week, continuing to follow the movement in the soybean oil market and feeling pressure from drier conditions allowing harvest to progress. The Canadian Grain Commission reported national canola exports of 248,400 metric tons for the week ending October 4, up from 130,700 the previous week. RBD canola oil basis levels fell another 50 to 75 points for the week.
The December palm oil futures are slightly lower this past week but remains rangebound and at a sharp discount to soybean oil in the global market. GAPKI’s monthly report showed crude palm oil stocks in Indonesia at the end of August declined to 2.21 MMT from 2.76 MMT in July and were the lowest in six months, while also representing the lowest stocks for the month in 11 years. Malaysia’s palm oil stockpiles in September surged to 3.51 million metric tons as production hit an all-time high. Stockpiles rose for a sixth consecutive month, climbing 24.54% in September from the previous month to a record 3.51 million tons.
PRODUCE
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The broccoli market is expected to escalate as California growers contend with elevated diamondback moth (DBM) pressure, quality challenges, and declining yields from late-season fields. Recent heat has accelerated maturity, pulling production schedules forward and reducing harvest expectations for the week ahead. Markon First Crop (MFC) Broccoli is available in Salinas, California.
California
- Yields are low due to increased quality challenges, exacerbated by recent heat
- DBM pressure remains elevated across several growing regions
- Pin rot is being reported throughout portions of the Salinas and Santa Maria Valleys
- Late-season acreage is showing signs of fatigue, limiting yield potential
Mexico (crossing through South Texas)
- Supplies are readily available
- Quality is generally superior to California product
- Insect pressure is minimal
- Some lots are exhibiting discoloration, uneven sizing, and occasional hollow core
- Tightening California supplies and quality concerns could shift additional demand to Mexico and drive up markets
East Coast
- Maine harvests are expected to run through October
- Indiana production has begun, though yields are expected to be low this season
- Virginia harvests are underway
The California Valencia season is ending. The California Navel season will start on a limited basis next week. Prices for small-size fruit (113- to 138-count oranges) will ease in late October.
Valencia
- California Valencia supplies are expected to ship through late October
- Current stocks are dominated by 56- and 72-count sizes; choice-grade fruit is most plentiful
- Small-size fruit (113- to 138-count oranges) will be extremely limited for the rest of the Valencia season
- Sugar levels range from 13 to 15 Brix; high sugar levels such as this typically result in a shorter shelf-life
Navel
- Limited California Navel harvesting will begin next week; volume will ramp up over the next three to four weeks
- Stocks will be dominated by 88- and 113-count sizes; fancy grade fruit is most prevalent
- Sugar levels range from 10 to 12 Brix
- This early variety fruit requires gassing for 72+ hours
- Expect prices for small sizes to inch down as Navel yields increase
Green bean prices are elevated. Supplies are extremely limited; weather disruptions and regional transitions are reducing availability. Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Trimmed Green Beans are available.
- East Coast production remains inconsistent as Northern and Midwestern districts transition to Southern acreage
- Rain, drought stress, and fluctuating temperatures have disrupted plant development and harvest timing
- Delayed picking and early field finishes are limiting day-to-day availability
- Southern acreage should gradually increase yields, but near-term conditions are tight
- West Coast supplies are limited out of California and Baja, Mexico
- Heat has reduced yields and affected pod quality; some rust is being reported
- Rain and additional storm risks in Baja may further interrupt harvests and transportation
- Mexican production remains below normal and is not providing meaningful relief to shortages
- Recent hurricane impacts have reduced volume
- Transitions to Jalisco and Los Mochis are upcoming, but immediate improvement will be limited
- Growers are reporting good quality and sufficient supplies in Guatemala as production is concentrated in the cooler highland areas
- Expect elevated prices and limited availability over the next several weeks
Iceberg supplies are expected to remain extremely limited through the remainder of the Salinas season. Lower yields continue to push prices up. Romaine and green leaf markets are active, but not as high as iceberg. MFC Green Leaf, Iceberg, and Romaine Lettuces are available in Salinas, California; Markon Best Available (MBA) is being substituted as needed due to low weights.
Salinas/Santa Maria, California
- Quality ranges from fair to good; insect pressure, internal burn, mildew, and seeder are found in many lots
- Disease pressure, including INSV and Sclerotinia, persists; percentages of impacted heads vary from lot to lot
- Decreased yields/crop loss are seen throughout the Salinas Valley
Huron, California
- This season is expected to begin mid-October
Mexico (crossing into Texas)
- Production continues year-round
New Mexico
- Las Cruces harvests are scheduled to start the week of October 12 and ramp up the following week
- Early season rains wiped out 10-15% of total plantings; romaine is expected to be the most limited lettuce this fall season (through late November)
South Carolina
- The season is expected to begin the week of October 19, further reducing pressure on California supplies
Northeastern Canada and USA
- All harvests are forecast to continue through early October
- Iceberg quality has been up and down from week to week; green leaf and romaine quality has been more consistent
Increased volumes out of Mexico are pushing markets lower. MFC and Markon Essentials (ESS) Limes are available.
Mexico
- Production has increased in the newer regions in Veracruz, Mexico
- Markets are coming down on all sizes, but smaller sizes are seeing the largest drop
- Large sizes, 110- and 150-count, will remain limited for the next several weeks
- Quality is improving, but stylar and oil spotting are intermittent
- Expect markets to inch down further into October
Colombia
- Volumes are lower than anticipated for this time of year
- El Niño weather conditions have caused insufficient rainfall leading to lower yields
- Sizing is skewing heavily toward smaller sizes, 230- and 250-count, leaving the larger sizes tight
- Despite the lower production on the large sizes, markets have softened to stay competitive with Mexico
Hawaii
- The U.S. is still waiting on approval from regulators to begin purchasing Hawaiian limes
- Quality is consistent; however, limes are showing a lighter green shade
- Markets are generally higher than Mexican product
After a period of mild temperatures, a warming trend is forecast through October 8, with daytime highs expected to reach the 80s across key California growing regions, including Salinas/Watsonville, Oxnard, and Santa Maria. The prolonged heat is expected to accelerate fruit maturity and increase quality concerns, including overripening, bruising, and misshapen fruit, which may impact pack-outs, shelf life, and overall fruit quality moving into the following week.
Supplies
- Volume will fall due to sun and heat damage
- Additional production impacts are possible over the next several weeks as plants recover from the heat
Quality
- Direct sun damage is resulting in increased culling at the field level
- Softer fruit and more bruising are anticipated over the next 7 to 10 days
- Receivers should expect more softness and berry-on-berry bruising than normal upon arrival
- Growers are aggressively sorting fruit and rapidly cooling product to maintain the highest possible quality standards
- Maintaining the cold chain will be vital for shelf life; Markon recommends ordering for quick turns
Outlook
- Supplies will be tight in the short term as growers manage heat-related quality issues and reduced field production
- Quality concerns are expected to persist over the next week, with softness and bruising being the primary challenges
- Expect elevated prices over the next two to three weeks