Market Outlook

Prices are projected to drift sideways into June with little to move the needle in either direction. Grocers haven’t prioritized ribeye features heading into grilling season, and foodservice demand isn’t picking up the slack.

Prices appear positioned to continue trending higher as we move into June, extending the upward momentum seen in recent weeks. Seasonal grilling demand is providing a firm market floor, and buyers should not anticipate meaningful relief while premium beef values remain historically elevated.

Prices should remain above year-ago levels but remain range-bound near term, consistent with seasonal norms. Retail featuring remains aggressive, higher-end foodservice demand is firm, and tight supplies leave little room for values to soften.

Prices are expected to firm through mid-month, following the familiar seasonal script. Supply remains constrained and both retail and foodservice buyers are competing for available product, keeping the overall market tone constructive.

Prices should hold firm, supported by tight uncommitted supplies and solid retail demand. Domestic buyers are reluctant to push values much higher from here, however, pointing to a range-bound tone as summer gets underway.

Market conditions look set to stabilize after a period of upward movement driven by tighter beef supplies and strong seasonal retail demand. Resistance at higher levels is expected to slow momentum and keep trade more sideways in the months ahead.

Prices appear to be finding their footing after a sharp selloff, with buyers having stepped back from recent highs and shifted attention toward other beef items. The market should settle into a steadier range as conditions normalize.

Prices are expected to take on a softer, more measured tone as June progresses, moving on their own fundamentals rather than seasonal trends. Buyer resistance has been building since May’s push higher, and that pushback should keep another meaningful move upward in check.

Prices should hold steady into June, consistent with the typical seasonal path. The recent pullback has made current levels more attractive, offering buyers a window to build positions ahead of any summer demand pickup.

Prices are expected to stay firm and well above both year-ago and five-year averages as summer grilling demand builds. Consumer appetite for burgers and quality ground beef shows no sign of easing, keeping values elevated in the weeks ahead.

Prices should hold firm as grilling season gains traction, with lean trimmings values providing a solid floor. Retail demand has been strengthening, and that momentum should keep the market tone constructive through the summer months.

The WOG complex held a steady undertone through mid‑week. Demand was described as moderate against a supply environment that remained only barely adequate. Bone‑in breasts and front halves reflected a balanced and uneventful market landscape.

The boneless breast segment remained mixed. Jumbo production continued to encounter softer interest as fully adequate supplies and slower post‑holiday movement encouraged sellers—particularly those with combo‑bin output—to adjust their approach. Medium‑sized boneless breasts tested for support at current levels, while select‑sized offerings remained comparatively limited and more challenging for buyers to secure. Tenders maintained a mostly steady tone, though several participants noted that spot availability had become more noticeable than in recent weeks.

Wings closed the period under a generally steady backdrop. Additional inquiries from wing houses and distribution channels surfaced across multiple regions, but these developments primarily strengthened seller confidence rather than shifting overall market expectations.

Back‑half items continued to experience a supportive environment. Bone‑in legs and thighs were well‑cleared, with production moving consistently into further‑processing and deboning channels. Leg quarters remained balanced with adequate supplies and moderate demand. Drumsticks held a steady undertone, supported by retail interest, while both leg meat and thigh meat continued to see active interest amid only limited spot availability.

The turkey market remains volatile, despite relatively slow movement in overall volume. Sellers are working to clear inventories of parts and raw materials, while buyers are actively seeking whole birds, resulting in limited production movement for differing reasons across product types. Frozen whole bird values continue to trend higher as buyers show strong willingness to secure any available production. Inventories of both consumer‑ and institutional‑sized breasts remain tight, and consumer‑size basted product is being held with a firm tone. Most other lines are reported as steady to fully steady.

Breast meat intended for export is being offered at notably lower values, with sellers applying deeper discounts to move excess production out of domestic channels. Domestic sales are also occurring at reduced levels, and fresh production is being offered at similarly discounted values. Production remains significantly heavier than last year, while demand is unseasonably light. Softer interest is also influencing tenders and thigh meat, which are trading at lower levels as well.

Market conditions appear to have reached a near‑term floor following a sharp seasonal decline. The improved value position is drawing renewed interest from both retail and foodservice buyers, though softer demand from QSR channels is expected to limit the strength of any potential recovery.

Prices are expected to edge higher over the coming weeks, consistent with the seasonal tendency for loin values to firm as summer approaches. Retailers have been leaning into loin features more aggressively, which is helping to absorb available supply and providing a firmer foundation for the market.

Prices are expected to stay well-supported heading into June, with summer grilling demand and the holiday calendar combining to keep buyer interest strong. The seasonal setup favors a constructive tone, and the market should reflect that in the weeks ahead.

Prices are expected to stay firm over the next several weeks, tracking normal seasonal patterns as grilling and smoking demand continues to build. Available supplies have been tightening, and growing export interest should keep the market supported.

Prices are expected to hold near current levels heading into June, following the typical seasonal pattern for this time of year. Bone-in ham exports remain a bright spot, with Mexico absorbing shipments at a solid pace, while boneless ham is moving more slowly on the domestic side as buyer demand stays relatively subdued.

MMPA is still an unknown – pricing remains high but stable .

The white shrimp market remains generally stable. Lower inbound costs from India are helping offset higher costs from Central America. Market expectations point toward steady to slightly softer levels, though elevated fuel costs continue to limit further cost relief.

The black tiger shrimp market is stable overall, with some softer values noted on headless shell‑on product and smaller sizes. Outlook suggests steady to slightly lower levels, with fuel costs remaining a key factor preventing broader cost reductions.

The market remains firm to slightly stronger heading into Lent. Larger sizes remain tight to unavailable due to regulatory restrictions affecting key harvest areas.

The warm‑water lobster market has stabilized, with some softer offers emerging on larger sizes. High‑volume sizes remain steady and are showing signs of strengthening as supply tightens.

The market has stabilized at elevated levels, with tight supplies across all sizes.

The market has stabilized at elevated levels, with tight supplies across all sizes.

The market has stabilized at elevated levels, with tight supplies across all sizes.

Canadian snow crab has begun trending higher, with expectations for tight and costly supply conditions during the off‑season.

The market has leveled off amid continued absence of Russian product. Some sizes remain limited, though overall availability is improving.

The market remains stable, though several producing countries are experiencing quality and consistency challenges.

The market remains stable, with no significant changes expected in the near‑term outlook.

The market has leveled off and remains stable. Seasonal declines have not yet materialized, though opportunities continue to be monitored.

The market remains stable, with no seasonal softening observed to date. Conditions continue to be monitored for potential opportunities.

Fresh salmon remains stable, with no seasonal easing observed. Market conditions continue to be reviewed for potential shifts.

Supply from Asia remains stable, while South and Central American supply remains strained and continues to present challenges.

The market remains stable, with no notable changes expected in the near‑term outlook.

Scallops remain firm with some sizes softening in demand in recent weeks, quotas remain in place at much lower levels than last year so anticipate any cost relief to be temporary.

Prices continue to rise as availability remains strained globally, key sizes and cuts are being allocated across all major suppliers.

Pacific cod season has ended and supply is about 20% of expectation – supply and pricing is expected to be very high at least until B season kicks off in August/September.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

Season is in full swing, boat pricing is down slightly from the opener but prices remain at record levels – predominant factor is fuel prices .

Milk production remains impressive while warming temperatures across the country are bringing an end to the spring flush in the North. US milk production report showed a larger than expected increase in April, jumping 2.7% YOY as another 24k head were added this month from the initial March reports. This is the largest US herd since 1992 and is keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, strong milk fat tests have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market. Overall supplies remain comfortable, while increased demand has kept them from becoming burdensome.

The butter market is seeing large buying activity as prices pushed back to their lowest levels since late January the prior week, limiting downside opportunity. Impressive milk output so far this year has helped keep butter churns full and running hard. This has been magnified by the strong butterfat within the milk, pushing plenty of cream onto the market. The USDA confirmed the elevated production levels as updated data showed March butter output up 1.2% from the prior year . However, the cheaper prices earlier this year did support better domestic and global demand, keeping US cold storage levels limited and -8.5% YOY (April).

The block cheese market put in fresh new lows this past week, but struggling to push lower after trading back to its lowest levels since February as recent reports suggest plentiful supplies and less optimistic demand prospects.  With plenty of milk coming to market, cheese production is expected to remain near its record highs and keep comfortable amounts of product coming to market.  The USDA’s Cold Storage report showed another healthy increase in stocks from March, with all cheese stocks for April coming in only 0.9% lower YOY and American cheese stocks -1.4% YOY.  Despite trailing year ago levels, slower domestic and international interest of late has put the market at risk for a further build in stocks and why blocks remain on the defensive. March cheese output up 1.2% from the prior year and set a new record for the month.

The shell egg markets are in a state of flux as the market searches for balance into what is normally the weakest time of year. Renewed stockpiling interest has supported eggs off the multi-year lows set the earlier in the month, but those rallies ran out of steam last week as buyers moved to the sidelines. The markets appear to be finding a better supply/demand balance, with reported trading ranges tracking closer with reported values vs. larger discounts seen in April. Even as we move into the slower spring/summer demand period, prices should struggle to retest the recent lows as deteriorating producer margins trim flock sizes in the US. Overall flocks are still more than adequate as updated monthly flock data showed the US table egg laying flock as of May 1st at 306.89 million head, down a seasonally small 360k head from last month and still +3.8% YOY. Updated cage free layers for May showed some growth as flocks were 710k head larger than the prior month as the historically small premium to conventional eggs continues to driver slower cage free conversion efforts.

Soybean oil futures pulled back from their contract highs set last week, but remain supported above the May lows. The market is struggling to push higher amid increased confidence in some sort of a US – Iran agreement. However, the supportive biofuel mandates will keep some level of order interest beneath the market and has led to more divergence between the edible oil market and energies. Domestic spot crude and refined soybean oil basis offers remain firm through Q3 as crushers look for tighter stocks ahead.

The July canola seed futures continue to push higher this week as traders continue to monitor less than ideal planting conditions thus far in Canada. Also, strong domestic crush margins have been a persistent feature, keeping underlying demand for cash canola elevated. RBD canola oil basis levels remain exceptionally firm on continued strong demand pull coming from the U.S.

The nearby palm oil futures are backing off from their highs set this week, following the soybean oil market and maintaining its substantial discount. The Indonesian Palm Oil Association reported their end of March palm oil stocks at 2.57 million metric tons, up from 2.03 million in February and compared to 2.25 million last year. Their March production at 4.821 million metric tons was in line with last year. Under a policy announced last week, exports of palm oil must go through a state company, with a transition phase expected to start in June.

Mexico’s main avocado crop is tightening; growers are delaying harvests to prolong the season until the Loca season begins in July. California and Peruvian stocks will be shipped to help fill orders.

Mexico

• Expect limited supplies of the main crop as the season winds down
• Dry matter in the main crop ranges from 35-38%, which is common towards the end of the season
  • This higher percentage of dry matter causes fruit to ripen at a faster pace than normal
  • Markon recommends ordering for quick turns
• New crop Loca crop supplies will not enter the market until July
• The Loca crop is known for its lower dry matter and smaller sizes
• Mexican avocados account for 83% of U.S. demand
• Size, grade, and Country of Origin substitutions may be requested to fill orders
• Expect elevated markets and tight supplies through June

California

• Expect lower volume as California helps fill the void from Mexico
• The California season is past its peak and will wind down in late July
• California avocados account for 10% of the U.S. demand
• Size and grade substitutions may be requested to fill orders
• Expect high prices and low yields through June

Peru

• Volume is low
• The Peruvian season will run through August
• Peruvian avocados account for 7% of the U.S. demand; most is program business

The Watsonville/Salinas growing region received more rain than was expected. Most supplies are not meeting Markon First Crop (MFC) specifications; packer label berries will be substituted due to wet fruit and mud on cartons.

Salinas/Watsonville

• MFC Strawberries are available
• Berry size is large; counts average 12 to 16 pieces per 1-pound clamshell
• Approximately half an inch of rain fell yesterday
• Quality is fair; issues include softness, bruising, white shoulders, and light pin rot
• Maintaining the cold chain will be vital for shelf-life; Markon recommends ordering for quick turns
• Expect strong demand and elevated markets through next week

Santa Maria/Oxnard

• MFC Strawberries are available
• Size ranges from small-medium to medium (18 to 22 berries per 1-pound clamshell)
• This region received less rain than Salians/Watsonville, closer to .10 inches
• Overall quality is good; some bruising and white shoulders have been reported
• Maintaining the cold chain will be vital for shelf-life; Markon recommends ordering for quick turns
• Prices will remain elevated for the next 7-10 days

Cantaloupe and honeydew supplies are tightening; expect higher prices for the rest of June as the crop transitions to new growing regions. MFC Cantaloupe is available. MFC Honeydew is limited.

Cantaloupe

Central America

• The offshore season has ended

Arizona-California Desert Region

• Yields have started to decline in the Arizona-California desert region; Arizona harvesting will end in two to three weeks
• Mosaic virus has been present in fields, which has reduced growth and negatively affected volume
• Size has shifted to smaller fruit, with 12- and 15-count melons the most prevalent
• Expect markets to rise through June until California’s San Joaquin Valley season gets underway in early July

San Joaquin Valley, California

• Harvesting is on track to begin in early July
• Overall supplies may tighten significantly during the transition between growing regions

Honeydew

Central America

• The offshore season has ended

Mexico

• Light production will continue for the next two weeks
• Volume is much lower than domestic-grown fruit

Arizona-California Desert Region

• Production is steady; six-count fruit is most common
• Overall quality is good, but some scarring may be present
• Total volume will start to decline over the next two to three weeks; Arizona harvesting will end in mid-June
• Markets will gradually rise as supplies diminish through June and growers transition to California’s San Joaquin Valley

San Joaquin Valley, California

• This season will begin in early July
• Supplies may be limited during the transition period

Domestic production has slowed slightly; harvesting is wrapping up in several growing regions. MFC Chile Peppers are available.

Mexico

• Mexican supplies are increasing
• Jalapeno and tomatillo stocks are abundant
• Quality has improved in recent weeks, but discoloration and misshapen peppers are being reported occasionally
• Next week’s expected storms may negatively impact quality and yields
• Red Fresno chiles remain limited, but yields are expected to increase in two to three weeks
• Most markets are steady, but prices for Poblanos, Anaheims, and Habaneros remain elevated

United States

• The Texas season will end over the next two weeks
• East Coast production, concentrated in Georgia, is fully underway; standard and specialty chiles are shipping
• Jalapeno volume is meeting demand in California’s desert region, but the season is past its peak
• California’s San Joaquin Valley season will begin in mid-June, while Central Coast production will begin in July
• Expect markets to inch up until more West Coast seasons start in two to three weeks

Mexican green and red grape prices are inching down. Mexican portioned grapes will begin shipping the week of June 14. The California grape season is set to kick off in late July, increasing overall market supplies for the summer.

Red/Green Grapes

• Markon Essentials (ESS) Grapes are available  
• The Mexican season is ramping up; demand is moderate
• Pricing will fall as yields increase
• California grapes will begin shipping in late July

Lunch Bunch

• MFC Portioned Grapes will begin shipping in early July
• Packer label offshore portioned grapes are currently being shipped
• The Mexican portioned grape season will begin the week of June 14
• Expect elevated pricing as the season begins, followed by gradually decreasing markets

Orange stocks remain extremely limited, particularly 113- and 138-count sizes. This tight supply is being felt across all growing regions, and unfortunately, no improvement is expected until the Chilean and South African import seasons start in July.

California

• MFC and ESS Oranges are available 
• Overall supplies of 113- and 138-count oranges will be extremely limited through the Valencia season, which runs until October
• 56-, 72-, and 88-count fruit are abundant
• Expect to make size and grade substitutions, as well as date changes, to fill orders of small fruit
• Quality is good; sugar levels range from 12-13 Brix
• Expect high prices for small fruit (113- and 138-count supplies)

Florida 

• Growers will ship storage fruit through the end of June
• Supplies are dominated by 113-count and larger sizes; 138-count oranges are limited
• Quality is fair; choice and standard grades are most abundant
• Expect steady markets through June

Mexico

• The Valencia season has ended

Imported/Moroccan

• Expect the Moroccan season to end in late June
• Valencia quality is very good; sugar levels range from 12-13 Brix
• Stocks are dominated by 113- and 100-count sizes; 138-count fruit is extremely limited
• Expect elevated prices into mid-June

Imported/South Africa & Chile

• The season will begin in early July
• Current rain events have growers worried about size structure upon arrival in the U.S.
• Supplies will be dominated by 113-count and larger sizes
• Import palletization:
  • 72 cases per pallet
  • Box weight is 33 pounds (15 KG)
• Domestic palletization:
  • 54 cases per pallet (18 KG)
  • Box weight is 40 pounds

Prices are low as multiple growing regions are in play, including the Southeast, California, and the Baja Peninsula; supplies have increased. MFC Zucchini and Yellow Squash are available.

Southeast

• Production is winding down in South Georgia; quality is mixed
• The North Carolina season has started
  • Volume will increase weekly
  • Quality is very good
• Expect weak prices

California

• The San Joaquin Valley season is underway
  • Volume is increasing
  • Quality is very good
• California’s Santa Maria season is ramping up
• Expect lower prices over the next two weeks

Mexico

• Production has ended in Western Mexico
  • Growers have transitioned to Baja
  • Zucchini volume is increasing
  • Yellow squash supplies are tight
  • New crop quality is very good

Tomato markets are lower as multiple regions enter their summer season.  Central Florida production is coming to an end as we transition into the South Carolina, Florida Panhandle and South Georgia. The Baja Peninsula and California will increase production in June.

Rounds

• East Coast
  • Central Florida production is winding down and will end this week
  • South Carolina, Florida Panhandle and South Georgia are in full production
  • Quality is very good
  • Tennessee and Virginia will begin production around July 4
  • Markets will remain steady over the next few weeks
• Mexico
  • The Baja Peninsula has steady moderate production on their new fields, quality is nice
  • Central Mexico has light volume crossing in South Texas
• California
  • The San Joaquin Valley has started with very light production that will increase throughout June

Romas

• East Coast
  • Central Florida production is ending
  • South Carlina, Florida Panhandle and South Georgia are in full production
  • Quality is very good
  • Tennessee and Virginia production will begin early July
  • Expect lower markets in the coming weeks
• Mexico
  • Central Mexico has new blocks starting in early June which will increase overall volume
  • The Baja Peninsula is underway with very nice quality; larger sizes are most prevalent
• California
  • Production is expected to start in the next 7-10 days
  • Prices are low

Grape and Cherry

• East Coast
  • Central Florida production has ended
  • Good production in South Carolina, Florida Panhandle and South Georgia
  • Quality is good
  • Tennessee and Virginia production will start the end of June
  • Markets are starting to ease and will fall further through May
• Mexico
  • Baja has good volume and strong quality
  • West Mexico has light volume as their season winds down; quality average
  • Expect low prices next week