Market Outlook

Prices will continue to take on a very strong tone over the next several weeks, respecting normal seasonal trends. Foodservice buyers appear willing to chase prices higher, much like last year, in a bid to assure supply for upcoming holiday demand.

Prices will trade firm through the end of the month, running contrary the seasonal trend for values to soften going into December. Strips will trade stronger in conjunction with other high value beef items this year, keeping prices well supported in coming weeks.

Prices will maintain a very strong tone in coming weeks, respecting seasonal trends for November. Buyers will be competing for a limited number of loads of uncommitted product, enabling packers to hold firm on offers.

Prices will continue to trade steady going into December, falling in line with seasonal price trends. Demand for Tri Tips tends to seasonally soften going into the winter months, however tighter overall supplies of beef will keep prices more steady this year.

Prices will shift to a softer tone over the next several weeks, respecting seasonal trends for the month of November. While demand for Top Butts tends to be supported in winter months due to buying interest for roasting meats, this year demand will not start to pick up until after the holiday season.

Prices will defying the seasonal trend for values to soften in November as Foodservice/QSR and other channels will feature Briskets in promotions and LTOS, keeping prices more in balance.

Prices will shift to a softer tone over the next several weeks, falling in line with seasonal price trends. Retail buyers will be shifting the buying preferences to other beef items in coming weeks, putting more supply of Flap Meat on the market to be absorbed.

Skirt Meat prices will continue to trade steady through the end of November, respecting seasonal price trends. Retail demand will back off in coming weeks as grocery stores favor features of other items in the meat case, however Foodservice demand will be strong enough to keep prices supported.

Prices will continue to trade steady, falling in line with seasonal trends for the month. Round demand has shown signs of backing off in coming weeks, however Foodservice demand will be adequate to keep Inside Rounds supported.

Prices will maintain a strong tone over the next several weeks, even though seasonal trends call for a more steady price tone. Retail demand for quality ground product will remain strong through the end of November, keeping prices well-supported.

Prices will trade steady through the end of the month, falling in line with seasonal trends. Retail demand for Ground Beef remains very strong, however supplies of both lean and fat trimmings have increased enough the keep prices in check.

Starting with the birds, offerings of the 3.5lb./down WOGs remain few and far between. A combination of moderate to active demand, particularly from within the retail sector, along with pockets of heavier-than-anticipated average live weights, leave production well-accounted for across most points of sale. As a result, some marketers continue to test slightly higher asked prices on low-volume availability. Turning to the 3.5lb./down WOGs, trade sentiment is comparatively less “bullish” as fully adequate supplies and fair demand from cutting and deboning channels make for a steady-at-best rating. In terms of finalized transaction activity, this morning’s canvass was slow to reveal much in the way of market-swaying trade and all sizes go unchanged. Bone-in breasts and front halves are uneventful with sellers maintaining a confident grasp on adequate production levels.

Jumbo-sized boneless breasts are steady and well-established at listed price points. That being said, participants on both sides of the negotiation table continue to test the opposing party’s willingness to haggle. Offerings are adequate in keeping up with a moderate draw. Medium and select-sized offerings are balanced albeit somewhat quiet here at week’s end. The same holds true for tenders which close the morning under a steady rating.

Turning to the wing complex, jumbo-sized offerings test for price support back of the market. Spot availability of both whole and cut wings proves easy for prospective buyers to uncover at a discount. Small-sized offerings are maintained with isolated pockets of price pressure noted. Medium-sized wings are termed as steady overall. A handful of players note that offerings aren’t as prevalent on the street as they have been in the recent past. Chunk and trim meats deserve a steady rating.

Fresh bulk and 4/10 leg quarters lack event. Most negotiations and finalized sales cross our desk within a close range of stable levels. That being said, a handful of purchasers continue to test slightly lower bids. Experiences and sentiment surrounding legs is mixed and highly dependent on the player in question. Paid prices range from flat market value to a discount. A similar divergence is noted on the supply side with pockets of both fully-adequate and barely adequate availability noted. We rate this line as unsettled pending additional feedback. Elsewhere, drumsticks and thigh close under a steady rating, while leg meat and thigh meat attempt to confirm support at listed levels.

Turkey Markets have traded sideways for some time, as consumption numbers remain depressed while high inventories are offset by strong export demand. Producers have reduced placements significantly, which should help alleviate the supply imbalance during the busy holiday season. Prices would be expected to maintain current levels until a demonstrable shift happens in the market.

Breast markets are in a substantial oversupply environment. Reports have inventory positions at levels not seen since 2020. At current prices, sellers have found an active market overseas, which is putting a floor on domestic prices.

Prices will maintain a strong tone through the end of November, defying the normal seasonal trend for values to soften this time of the year. Buyers caught short of supply in an environment of tight cold storage supplies will keep prices very well supported.

Prices will take on a balanced tone overall, falling in line with seasonal price trends. Demand for strap on loins will continue to moderate, however tighter supplies will keep prices even through the end of the month.

Prices will maintain a very firm tone through the end of the month, defying seasonal price trends. Foodservice demand will be supported by a very strong demand pull from grocery stores as retail buyers will continue to find value in the Rib primal.

Prices will trade with a neutral tone going into December, following seasonal trends for this time of the year. Domestic demand will be seen with holiday roasts and pulled pork, however supplies will be adequate to keep prices in check.

Prices will take on a strong tone through the end of November, respecting seasonal trends. Both domestic and export demand will remain strong with the upcoming winter holiday buying coming into focus in coming weeks.

The market for blue swimming crab adjusted lower on lump, backfin, and special. Supplies of these mid-to-smaller grades continue to see the most downward pricing pressure. Some still lower offerings and sales are noted. The pricing and availability of mid-to-small sized crab meat vary significantly between sellers, depending on individual inventory positions. On the larger grades, the undertone remains somewhat unsettled with both a few higher and lower offers collected.

There was extensive price action early this week for imported, farm-raised white shrimp. The factors which are leading to increased pricing remains in place and in some instances decidedly so. There continues to be concerns over availability given the supply gaps in the U.S. and delayed shipments due to delays from the port strike. Growing concerns with overseas replacement in Latin America are adding anxiety to an already anxious market.

Black Shrimp markets are experiencing the same type of supply and replacement concerns as the White Shrimp market. Pricing will remain firm until a better outlook on supply emerges.

The market remains unsettled as sellers search for a bottom in prices. The new season has been delayed for 30 days, but impacts of that decision has yet to fully baked into pricing.

The market is trending upward, with the demand for sizes ranging from 6 to 9 oz. continuing to strengthen. However, sizes 10 oz. and above are expected to remain stable, while 5 oz. remain very limited. Short Term: Price stable

The market is experiencing an upward trend. Maine and Canadian tails are available with larger sizes expected to materialize soon. Additionally, prices for claw and knuckle meat have increased significant. We anticipate to see prices fall with at the start of the new year. Short Term: Prices Increasing

Landings in Maine have been favorable for customers seeking tails from the USA. Canadian tails are also available, and with larger sizes more available. Additionally, prices for claw and knuckle meat have increased significant. We anticipate to see prices fall with at the start of the new year. Short Term: Price Increasing

The Snow Crab season has ended. Prices are moving up and inventories are limited until the new season opens next year in April. Short Term: Price Increasing

The market is relatively stable. Prices from Vietnam have increased due to poor catches, and prices from Indonesia have increased due to a lack of landings and higher freight costs. Short Term: Prices increasing

The market is currently stable. Prices went back up due to the flooding, which killed off a lot of fingerlings. Prices could go up even more in the first quarter next year, due to limited fish to seed pods. Short Term: Price increasing

Prices are rising due to poor catches this year. Short Term: Price increasing

The Atlantic Salmon market is steady but is expected to rise during the holidays as demand picks up. Short Term: Price Increasing

The Atlantic Salmon market is steady but is expected to rise during the holidays as demand picks up. Short Term: Price Increasing

The market is currently stable with no price increases. Limited fish are available as a typhoon wiped out farms reducing supplies. Farmers prefer to grow out larger sizes to fetch higher prices so very limited volumes of small fish for 3/5 oz. fillets is available.
Short term: Steady Price

Landing this week were the lowest of the season. With two weeks till Thanksgiving, expect that trend to continue until December when boats will try to earn some holiday earnings with higher then normal prices offered at the dock. New imported scallops have been entering the market from Peru. While these are traditionally smaller sized, they do offer some reprieve.

Nuggets still short, demand is still rising, despite cost increases. Pond bank prices remain firm, premium fillet prices as well. Fish are still feeding well and growing coming into the cooler months. Short Term: Steady Pricing

Milk output is variable across the country, but mostly steady to higher and following the seasonal norms. Bottling and Class III demand is still creating more competition for spot supplies, while increased milk components have helped drive more products onto the market. The USDA reported a surprise YOY increase in milk output for September, coming in 0.1% higher along with August being increased to +0.4% YOY. Increased milk and cream output has pushed prices lower, along with cream multiples, while the strong margin structure to dairy farmers is still encouraging them to do all they can to maximize output. The main headwind to larger herds remains the extremely tight supply of replacement heifers. There have now been 275 HPAI outbreaks in California, with 173 of these being reported in the last 30 days. This will limit October and November milk output in the largest producing state, but the national market is still optimistic about nearby supply.

The butter market is searching for a new nearby low as the trade has become increasingly comfortable with the supply prospects into the key Q4 demand period. Helping keep prices muted was the updated cold storage report showing a slower than normal depletion into September, and overall butter supplies 14% higher than last year.  When combined with butter output running at record levels in September (+11.3% YOY) the market appears confident in product availability into heavy Q4 demand period.  From a cream perspective, supplies are readily available and are starting to pressure cream multiples which should encourage strong butter churning into the end of the year.  Globally, US values are now competitive but exports are minimal and we have remained a net importer.

Cheese prices are pushing to new lows on the nearby market. Supplies are still not abundant, but the market is becoming more confident in production schedules being able to meet Q4/Q1 demand. The cold storage update which showed cheese stocks declining again in September and pushing American cheese stocks 8% lower YOY. This explains the significant run up in prices during September, but the lack of follow through strength in prices suggests supplies are improving nearby. The USDA reported September output of American and Cheddar cheese were down 3.7% and 2.6% respectively, but were still the 2nd highest levels on record for the month. Overall, the market appears much more confident in availability into the end of the year, but supplies are still not robust and will likely limit large scale selloffs in the interim. On the other hand, adequate milk availability across most regions should encourage solid output.

The shell egg market is halting its recent declines amid another HPAI outbreak this week at a California laying facility, impacting 2.2 million birds. Smaller flock sizes due to HPAI have greatly limited nearby shell egg availability, while cooler weather and the upcoming baking season demand is keeping inventories tight. However, reduced order interest at the current prices have pushed some extra shell eggs onto the market and helping to rebuild shell egg availability. Weekly shell egg inventories were able to expand vs. the prior week for the 4th consecutive week, and are now only 3% lower YOY. Cage free supplies have held up better, and are only 1% lower than last year. Ongoing fears of HPAI will keep the market on edge into the wild bird migration this fall/winter, limiting downside opportunity. Longer term, producer margins are still favorable and should drive further flock expansion.

The soybean oil market has set back from its recent highs, following the softer tone in palm oil prices globally. With imports of used cooking oil now in question for 2025, and tight overall vegoil supplies, prices are building in further soybean oil demand for biofuels. The USDA lowered its 24/25 stocks expectations on Friday by 250 million pounds, and that is with an understated export estimate. Weekly U.S. soybean oil export sales set a crop year high at 114,000 MT, well above market expectations and the largest weekly total since Nov ’12.

The spot canola seed futures made are well supported near their recent highs, following the lead of the palm oil and soybean oil markets as the Canadian harvest winds down. RBD canola oil values were weaker through the first quarter of 2025 despite strong demand from renewable diesel out West.

Palm oil futures have set back from 2 1/2 year highs. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board estimated their end of October palm oil stocks at a three year low for the month of 1.88 million metric tons, down from 2.014 million in September and well below the 2.447 million reported in October of 2023. Indonesia’s Economic Minister stated that he is confident that their palm oil production can be increased enough to meet growing biofuel demand over the next several years. Global cash palm oil prices are trading at a historic premium to soybean oil and will likely limit demand into the 2025 season.

Prices are steady but poised to rise when demand strengthens later this month. Markon First Crop (MFC) Asparagus is available.

Mexico

• Current quality is good and shelf-life potential is strong
• Mild weather is promoting growth but the season is well past peak production
• Size distribution is heavily skewed towards small spears,
  • Markets for the extra-large and jumbo sizes are elevated
  • Substituting small packs for standard or large sizes could yield considerable FOB cost savings at this time
• Expect markets to rise steadily through November as demand increases

Southern Peru

• Imported stocks (shipped into Miami, Florida) are tight
• Quality is below that of Mexican asparagus
• Production will continue to wind down before moving further north next month

Markon First Crop Markon (MFC) Premium Broccoli is sporadically available in Salinas, California. MFC Premium Broccoli is being packed in Guanajuato, Mexico (loading in South Texas).

• California markets are well above seasonal averages
  • West Coast supplies are expected to remain tight as the final fall fields are harvested; the season is forecast to end the week of November 25
  • There will be a short overlap of two growing regions as the Arizona/California desert season is set to start the week of November 20
  • Elevated insect pressure persists in the Salinas Valley; instances will subside once growers begin harvesting out of the desert region
• Mexican volume is increasing week over week
  • Quality is strong
  • Markets remain much lower than those on the West Coast, offering large potential FOB cost and freight savings
  • Quality ranges from good to very good; high-performing varieties will be harvested through the end of the year
• Expect prices to start inching down as desert production increases in 14-21 days

Raw product supplies for RSS Iceberg, Romaine, and Tender Leaf items continue to tighten across California and the Arizona desert growing regions.

• Raw product supplies are short in multiple growing regions
  • The primary transition from the Salinas and Santa Maria Valleys to the Arizona/California desert regions is ongoing; Salinas supplies will be depleted by mid- to late November
  • Production is winding down in Huron and Oxnard, California as well; these supplemental seasons will conclude in mid-November
  • Yields are higher in Guanajuato, Mexico; supplies from this region are being substituted to prevent shortages
• Quality is very good for this time of year; however, weights are low in all regions due to an extended heatwave in early October
• In addition to heat-related growth challenges, the Arizona/California desert is experiencing persistently strong winds, further stunting growth and dehydrating heads
• Markets are active; expect elevated prices through late November, at minimum