Market Outlook

Prices should find modest support through month-end, with holiday demand giving retail a short-term lift. Foodservice continues to lag, however, which should keep any upside in check.

Prices remain well above year-ago and five-year averages, though further gains may be harder to sustain with values running historically high relative to both ribeyes and tenderloins. A test of last year’s peak still looks possible in the months ahead.

Prices are expected to stay balanced heading into July with no clear catalyst to push the market firmly in either direction. Buyers are resisting chasing values higher this grilling season, keeping the market on neutral footing even as supplies tighten.

Prices should settle into a steadier pattern over the next several weeks, breaking from the usual seasonal climb. Retail demand for Tri Tips has been slow to build this summer, keeping the market below where typical seasonal trends would put it.

Prices have moved lower on weak retail demand, running counter to the seasonal pattern of firming ahead of Independence Day. Further downside may be limited from here, with tight harvest rates and buyer interest at current levels offering some underlying support.

Prices have held steady in recent weeks but look set to soften in July as seasonal trends reassert themselves. Strong foodservice demand tied to LTOs and promotional programs should help limit the depth of any decline in the months ahead.

Prices have taken on a softer tone, consistent with seasonal trends. Foodservice buyers are expected to turn more cautious in the weeks ahead as demand stays uncertain.

Prices are projected to continue to weaken in the coming weeks, largely tracking seasonal trends. Retail demand will moderate once Fourth of July buying clears, while foodservice interest remains uneven at best.

Prices should hold steady into July, in line with the seasonal pattern. Lower slaughter rates will constrain overall beef production, but modest foodservice demand for Inside Rounds should be enough to keep the market balanced.

Prices will remain well-supported as demand for quality ground product stays strong heading into peak grilling season. Consumer trade-down activity should provide an additional layer of demand support in the months ahead.

Prices are expected to stay well-supported through the Fourth of July, with lean trimmings values providing a solid floor. Strengthening retail demand should keep the overall market tone constructive through the summer.

The WOG complex closes the session on an unchanged footing, continuing the steady pattern that has defined the complex through much of the week. Demand holds at a moderate level against adequate spot availability, with most negotiations resolving within a familiar band of supportive values.

Bone-in breasts and front halves remain actively pursued, though firmer values have been slow to develop. The jumbo boneless breast segment remains somewhat mixed, with some sellers of boxed production testing premium-facing ask prices and finding willing counterparties. Combo bin sellers encounter more headwinds in moving available supply, with pockets of discounting still surfacing, though the gap between pack types has not widened materially. The jumbo boneless complex closes steady. Medium and select-sized offerings are steady. Tenders continue to face headwinds, as price-sensitive further processing and foodservice buyers show little urgency to stretch on value. While a floor is taking shape and the downward pattern is losing momentum, significant discounting continues to surface in pockets, keeping the undertone unsettled. Chunk and trim meats remain pressured and are rated barely steady.

Turning to wings, jumbo party wing premiums are reported sharply higher as tight supply meets concentrated foodservice demand. Buyers unable to cover on jumbos have turned to mediums, pulling premiums into that size as well. Smalls are seeing more deliberate pursuit than in recent sessions, with buyers working down the size ladder to fill program gaps. All lines are rated full steady.

Turning to the back half, leg quarters close about steady to steady, with supplies generally accessible. Thigh meat is still navigating headwinds, as ample supply continues to outpace a largely price-driven buyer pool. While discounting has pulled back from its most severe levels, significant discounts continue to surface here and there, and the line remains barely steady to weak. Leg meat is stable, with sales still reported within a close range of listed quotations, though the narrowing spread between leg meat and thigh meat values has drawn closer scrutiny from market participants.

At one point, the entire turkey market all seemed to be moving in one direction, but for a while now a divide has been deepening among the turkey complexes. Just as the theoretical continent of Pangaea split into the separate continents we know today, the industry has split with the frozen whole bird complex moving up while the parts and raw materials complexes keep trending downward. With changing demand patterns and production strategies, the gap between the complexes continues to widen. Just as explorers used to look for “lost” continents, buyers in the turkey market seek out frozen whole turkeys. However, the question persists as to whether they’re willing to pay the price to secure production. Spot activity is slow to occur. Meanwhile, inventories of the consumer and institutional-sized breasts remain very limited, but low-volume transactions take place at mostly supportive values.

Frozen tom breast meat is still negotiated at discounted values, but pricing appears to slowly be stabilizing. Meanwhile, trade of fresh tom breast meat remains highly variable, and transactions are inked within a very wide range of values. With that said, the bulk of sales continue to take place at sharply lower prices. Trade of breeder meat is extremely irregular among participants.

Prices are expected to find additional support after bottoming in May as soft foodservice demand weighed on values. While the seasonal pattern of firming prices in July is historically strong, softer demand from both foodservice and retail may cap any gains, barring major LTOs from QSR chains.

Prices should continue to trade sideways heading into July. Grilling season is providing a baseline of demand support, but lighter retail featuring activity should keep the market more restrained than typical.

Prices are expected to diverge from five-year averages as retail demand momentum carries beyond the Fourth of July buying window as retail featuring remains strong.

Prices have pulled back in recent weeks, falling in line with seasonal trends. Retail featuring has been notably strong, potentially limiting further downside.

Prices are expected to maintain a steady-to-lower tone, weighed down by improved spot load availability and softer foodservice demand. A stronger Mexican peso should pave the way for higher shipments south of the border, more than offsetting weaker sales to Asia.

The white shrimp market remains generally stable. Lower inbound costs from India are offsetting higher costs from Central America. Pricing is expected to remain steady to slightly lower, with fuel costs for sea freight limiting further reductions.

The black tiger shrimp market is stable overall, with some softening noted on headless shell‑on and smaller sizes. Pricing is expected to remain steady to slightly lower, with sea freight fuel costs preventing additional cost relief.

Pricing remains firm to slightly higher heading into Lent. Large sizes (U10–U8) continue to be tight to unavailable due to MMPA restrictions affecting key harvest areas.

The warm water lobster market has stabilized, with some softening in larger sizes. High‑volume sizes (5–8 oz) remain stable and are showing signs of upward pressure as supply tightens.

The market has stabilized at elevated levels, with tight supplies across all sizes.

Live cold water lobster pricing remains stable at elevated levels, with tight availability across all sizes.

Lobster meat remains stable at elevated levels, with tight supplies across all sizes.

Canadian snow crab is trending upward after reaching a seasonal low in May. Supply is expected to remain tight and costly during the off‑season. Some limited opportunities may emerge in September if inventories build.

Pricing has leveled off amid the continued absence of Russian product. Some sizes remain limited, but overall availability is adequate.

Pricing remains stable, though several producing countries are experiencing quality and consistency challenges.

The market remains stable, with no significant changes expected in the near‑term outlook.

The market has leveled off and remains stable. Seasonal cost declines have not yet materialized, though opportunities continue to be monitored.

The market remains stable with no seasonal cost relief observed to date. Conditions continue to be monitored for potential opportunities.

Fresh salmon pricing remains stable. Seasonal declines have not yet appeared, though the market is being monitored for potential shifts.

Supply from Asia remains stable. Supply from South and Central America continues to be strained and remains a concern.

The market remains stable, with no significant changes expected in the near‑term forecast.

The scallop market remains firm, though some sizes have softened in demand recently. Quotas remain significantly lower than last year, suggesting any cost relief may be temporary.

Pricing continues to rise as global availability remains constrained. Key sizes and cuts are being allocated across major suppliers.

The season has ended with supply reaching only about 20% of expectations. Pricing and availability are expected to remain elevated until the B‑season begins in August or September.

The pollock market remains stable, with no significant changes expected in the near‑term outlook.

MMPA‑related uncertainty continues. Pricing remains high but stable, with potential for upward pressure.

The season is fully underway. While boat pricing has eased slightly from the opener, overall pricing remains historically high, influenced largely by fuel costs.

Milk production remains impressive while warming temperatures across the country are limiting milk output. US milk production report showed yet another large increase in May, jumping 2.3% YOY as another 20k head were added this month from the initial April report. This is the largest US herd since 1992 and is keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, strong milk fat tests have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market. Overall supplies remain comfortable, while increased demand has kept them from becoming burdensome.

The domestic butter market is near unchanged this week after the recent break in prices sparked large scale order interest. However, rallies will likely remain muted in the face of churns running near capacity in the short term and plenty of cream availability. Impressive milk output so far this year has helped keep butter churns full and running hard, requiring more aggressive pricing to move product. This trend of large milk and cream supplies is expected to continue, with the USDA confirming fluid milk output jumped 2.3% YOY in May and that US herds remain in expansion mode. Milk and cream availability tend to contract seasonally into the summer months, so further downside opportunity appears muted in Q3. Updated production reports showed April butter output up 4.5% from last year. Cold storage levels for April remain 8.5% lower than last year and saw a smaller than expected build from March.

The block cheese market is stabilizing off its recent lows after dipping back to its lowest levels since February. Updated demand data from the USDA confirmed the slower domestic offtake of American cheese, with April consumption -2.6% from last year. This weak demand was partially offset by exports increasing almost 7% YOY, but overall American cheese demand was -1.3% YOY in April. US cheese output noted continued YOY growth of 1.7% in April while American and Cheddar output remained lower than the prior year (-1.2% and -3.5% respectively). US farms generated 2.3% more milk in May that last year and the slower American cheese output should be view more as inventory management by producers with American/Cheddar demand slowing and Italian varieties like Mozzarella still finding solid domestic and export interest. The USDA’s Cold Storage report showed another healthy increase in stocks from March, with all cheese stocks for April coming in only 0.9% lower YOY and American cheese stocks -1.4% YOY.

The shell egg markets finding balance into what is normally the weakest time of year. Renewed stockpiling interest has supported eggs off the multi-year lows set in early May, while rallies have struggled to maintain momentum as buyers consider the adequate amounts of eggs still coming to market. Even as we move into the slower summer demand period, prices should struggle to retest the recent lows as the historically weak prices are driving additional order interest as lower retail shelf prices and value propositions to foodservice drive demand. Cage free eggs have remained near parity with the conventional market, with inventories of each contracting the past few weeks and approaching more historically reasonable levels. This is keeping the two markets attached at the hip for the moment. Cage free layers for May showed some growth as flocks were 710k head larger than the prior month as the historically small premium to conventional eggs continues to driver slower cage free conversion efforts.

The US-Iran agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed the energy markets lower. This has weighed on the soybean oil market as speculative funds exit their long positions, however the supportive biofuel mandates will keep some level of order interest beneath the market from end users. Current prices will start to limit imports, which will be needed to solve the 2026 biofuel mandates. Domestic soybean oil basis offers remain firm through Q3 as crushers look for tighter stocks ahead.

The July canola seed futures are finding support of the prior week’s low, having followed the lead of the soybean complex. Early delayed seeding and recent Canadian Prairie rains likely mean some intended acres will go unplanted but expectations for a solid upcoming crop are keeping the market in check for now. The RBD canola oil basis offers were higher last week through Q3.

The spot palm oil futures bucked the trend in the other vegetable oil markets and is steady to higher this week. Malaysian palm oil exports for June 1-15 rose 23.8% vs. last month, according to a private cargo surveyor. Malaysia’s economic minister warned that the El Nino weather pattern may result in crop yield reductions of 8-10%, without providing any further detail. Historically, reduced rainfall amounts in El Nino years have detrimentally impacted palm oil production in the past.

East Coast green bell pepper production has slowed over the weekend, causing an upswing in the market. California green bells are in full production in the San Joaquin Valley. Markon First Crop (MFC) and Markon Essentials (ESS) Green and Red Bell Peppers are available.

Green Bells

• California’s San Joaquin Valley, the Bakersfield growing region, is in full production
  • Quality is very good
  • All sizes and grades are available
• Central Mexico has new summer crops in the state of Coahuila beginning this week
• South Georgia production slowed over the weekend due to recent rains; quality is mixed
• The North Carolina season will begin in 7 to 10 days
• Expect slightly higher markets due to increased demand

Red Bells

• California desert volume is moderate
  • Overall quality is very good as growers are starting the first picks of the last fields
  • The transition to Bakersfield will occur on June 29, possibly straining supply levels at that time
• Stocks are limited in South Georgia
• Canadian greenhouses have increased production
• Expect steady prices over the next week, then an upward trend in late June

Broccoli markets are expected to climb through June as industry supplies are tightening. MFC Broccoli is available in Salinas.

Salinas/Santa Maria

• Volume will fall for the second half of June
• Higher-than-average temperatures in Salinas are forecast through the weekend
• Quality ranges from average to good
  • Some smaller heads are being reported
  • Yellow beading is minimal
• Expect markets to inch up through late June

East Coast

• The Indiana season is underway
• Production will start in Maine and Canada in July
• Harvesting has ended in the Carolinas
• The New Jersey season will start in mid-July

Central Mexico (into South Texas)

• Quality is expected to deteriorate further in the coming weeks
• Weather challenges, including rain, storms, and heat fluctuations, are impacting quality
• Hollow core and pin rot are becoming more prevalent
• Markon Best Available Broccoli and packer label are being shipped

It’s peak California strawberry season. Supplies are ample, quality is excellent, and size is consistent due to ideal growing conditions. Expect weak prices.

Salinas/Watsonville

• MFC Strawberries are available
• Size is large; counts average 12 to 14 berries per 1-pound clamshell
• Quality is good; occasional issues include bruising and white shoulders

Santa Maria

• Overall quality is good; some bruising and white shoulders have been reported
• Size ranges from small-medium to medium, averaging 18 to 22 berries per 1-pound clamshell
• Maintaining the cold chain is vital for shelf-life; Markon recommends ordering for quick turns
• The majority of strawberries are going to the frozen market due to the abundance of supplies

Expect extremely limited cantaloupe supplies for the next three weeks. MFC Cantaloupe Melons and Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Cantaloupe Chunks are sporadic; packer label will be shipped as needed.

Arizona-California Desert Region

• Cantaloupe production, regardless of size, will be critically low until growers transition to new growing regions in July
• Some suppliers have issued Force Majeure on existing contracts
• Fields have been hit by unprecedented disease pressure this season; the warm winter has led to an increase in whitefly, which harms the plants’ ability to photosynthesize
• Markets will rise through the next few weeks as demand has rapidly outpaced supply

San Joaquin Valley, California

• The harvesting transition to new crop supplies will in begin early July
• Initial volume will be modest, but yields will ramp up quickly

Honeydew

• Honeydew supplies are adequate, which has kept pricing lower, but supplies are also diminishing

MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available in Idaho. Yellow potato prices are elevated; supplies are limited. Red potato markets are holding steady. Upcoming crop transitions will cause market volatility, but quality will improve over the next couple of months.

Idaho

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available
• Red storage supplies are ample
• Yellow storage stocks will be depleted by next week; California supplies will be transferred to supplement orders
• Overall quality is good
  • Reds are exhibiting excellent internal quality with strong color and smooth skins
  • Yellow potatoes may possess late-season storage issues (pressure bruising and lenticels)
• Yellow prices are higher due to strong demand

California

• Red and yellow production continues out of Bakersfield
  • All sizes are available
  • Quality is good
  • The season will wind down in late June
• Stockton supplies will start shipping in early July
  • Acreage is down this year
  • Expect tight supplies and high markets by late July

• Red prices are steady; yellow markets are slightly higher

Arizona

• Red and yellow supplies are sufficient

• • Red color is light pink
  • Minimal skinning is being reported
• Markets are holding steady

Washington

• Red and yellow yields are average
• Late-season storage quality is fair, with reports of pressure bruising and lenticels
• Pricing continues to rise

Florida

• Harvesting will wrap up in Northern Florida next week; storage supplies will ship through mid-July
• Yields are sufficient for both colors, but demand is active for yellows
• Quality is good
  • Red color is light pink
  • Lenticels are occasional issues in yellow supplies
• Markets are stable, but red prices may climb as the season winds down

Upcoming regions

• The North Carolina season will start in late June
• Production will begin in Texas and Virginia in early July