Market Outlook

Prices are expected to remain strong through the end of the year. Foodservice demand continues to be exceptional, with buyers willing to drive prices higher in the short term.

Prices are expected to remain strong in the coming weeks, despite seasonal trends suggesting a moderation. Strip prices will continue to rise in line with other middle meats, as supplies remain significantly below demand.

Prices will respect seasonal trends and maintain a strong tone going into the end of the year. Foodservice demand remains strong; creating price competition for uncommitted loads of product.

Prices are expected to soften over the next several weeks as seasonal demand for Tri Tips declines toward the end of the year.

Prices will continue to trade with a steady tone over the next several weeks, even though seasonal trends call for softer prices. Topp Butts represent good value at current levels, which will inspire features and promotions by retailers.

Prices are expected to trade with a balanced tone in the coming weeks, following seasonal trends. Promotional interest from Foodservice and QSR will provide a solid base of demand in the near term, while supplies remain adequate.

Prices will continue to show a softer tone going into the end of the year, falling in line with seasonal trends. Foodservice demand tends to fall back in December, which will force packers to reduce offers in order to move product.

Prices are expected to remain steady in the coming weeks, following seasonal trends. Export interest from Asian markets is expected to increase, but supplies will be sufficient to keep prices in check.

Prices are expected to take on a strong tone in the coming weeks, contrary to the typical seasonal trend of softening toward year-end. Round demand will remain robust, keeping subprimals, including Inside Rounds, well supported.

Prices are expected to range trade over the next several weeks, despite seasonal trends suggesting lower prices heading into year-end. Retail demand for quality ground products will help keep prices more supported this year, as consumers shift away from higher-value items.

Prices are expected to take on a moderate tone as the year ends. While prices for both fat and lean trimmings remain soft overall, spot load availability of Ground Beef will be tight enough to keep prices rangebound.

WOGs are being traded in a mostly steady manner, with slight variations in sentiment among participants. Some traders have observed an increase in premium asks, while others report being able to secure production at slightly lower prices compared to the previous week. Overall, the market is described as stable. While demand for whole birds has somewhat eased, supplies remain well-managed due to continued strong demand for parts.

Breasts and front halves are trading without significant changes. There is slightly more availability of jumbo, medium, and select boneless breast meat, though sales this morning have remained at stable values. Tender lines are described as steady. Trim meat continues to be available at discounted prices, though its availability varies somewhat between processors.

Jumbo wing supplies have begun to clear up, and higher asking prices are being tested. Demand for wings of all sizes has picked up as retailers prepare for the Super Bowl.

Export purchasing has slowed as international buyers express hesitation due to concerns about a potential port strike and tariffs at the start of the new year. This has led to some instability in the bone-in back-half items, particularly legs. However, the discounted offerings are limited to a small number of processors, and the majority of the market continues to trade at supportive levels. While export demand is somewhat reduced, domestic demand is helping to absorb production. Markets for thighs, drums, and leg quarters are described as steady, although some participants note that leg quarters are slightly harder to find than before. Thigh meat continues to be offered at sharply lower prices, partly due to schools being out and a decrease in demand, along with a slowdown in retail needs. There is also some mild pressure on the leg meat market, though it is not as pronounced as in the thigh meat segment.

As we approach the end of the year, participants in the turkey market are navigating some choppy seasonal conditions. A combination of year-over-year production cutbacks, reductions in workforce, and disease pressures from HPAI and Metapneumovirus have left key segments, such as parts and raw materials, struggling to meet demand. Meanwhile, the whole-bird segment is facing its own challenges, with fluctuating demand and uneven supply distribution leading to unpredictable pricing and shifting expectations. Marketers are finding themselves in a scramble, with some adjusting their prices to secure immediate sales, while others are staying focused on prioritizing value and weathering the current volatility.

Frozen breast meats continue to see strong demand from both domestic and export channels, remaining seasonally active. Supplies are barely adequate, with prospective buyers showing a willingness to increase their bids to secure deals. Fresh breast meats are also in high demand, with most bookings coming in at a modest premium over our quoted prices.

Prices have shifted to a softer tone, aligning with seasonal trends for December. Retail demand is expected to remain weak in the coming weeks as grocery stores focus their featuring efforts on other items.

Prices are expected to trade steady over the next several weeks, despite seasonal trends suggesting more moderate values. Domestic demand for boneless sirloins will seasonally ease in the coming weeks, but strong demand from Asian export markets will help support prices.

Prices are expected to shift to a more steady tone as the year ends, following seasonal trends. While overall demand remains decent, improved spot load availability will help keep prices more rangebound.

Prices will continue to range trade through the end of the year, respecting seasonal trends. Export demand remains firm, however buyers are unlikely to chase prices higher in the near term.

Prices will shift to a strong tone going into the end of the year. The combination of strong retail demand domestically and buying interest from Mexican importers will keep prices firm in coming weeks.

The market for blue swimming crab remains stable. Pricing and availability of mid-to-small sized crab meat vary significantly between sellers, depending on their individual inventory positions.

Market conditions remain firm, supported by elevated average costs due to sustained increases in replacement pricing since late September. While replacement offerings from Ecuador have become more visible, with occasional modest price reductions, the US market remains firm as average costs continue to rise. Indian offerings remain limited and command premium prices. The price gap between origin markets and US spot levels continues to influence trading dynamics. Most participants are closely monitoring inventory positions, with current levels indicating potential challenges in the first quarter, especially considering extended transit times for new shipments.

Supply constraints at origin continue to drive a firm market position. The cooked segment has notably strengthened, reflecting ongoing procurement difficulties.

Mexican shrimp fishing has begun, but the fishing effort has been somewhat muted. Sellers are still working to clear out older inventories. It will take some time to find a price that meets the needs of a struggling restaurant industry while still making fishing efforts worthwhile for direct producers.

Prices remain stable to slightly higher in some markets due to strong export demand, but are tempered in the U.S. by high inventories. Strong international demand, particularly from Asian and European markets, continues to drive sales. However, in the U.S., buyers remain cautious due to elevated inventory levels. A continued focus on export markets and seasonal buying trends is expected, with potential pricing adjustments depending on inventory depletion rates and post-holiday demand. Smaller size tails are in very short supply, while larger tails have better inventory.
Short Term: Prices are stable.

This week, the North American lobster tail wholesale market is showing mixed conditions across supply, demand, and pricing. Prices for warm water lobster tails are stabilizing but remain under pressure due to inventory balances, which are affecting Cold Water tail demand and pricing. However, the seasonal demand for Cold Water tails leading up to the holidays is expected to provide support to prices.
Short Term: Prices are increasing.

Prices for lobster tails, as well as other lobster products, have risen consistently over the past 14 months. The supply chain disruptions and lower-than-expected landings during recent seasons have intensified this trend, with allocation strategies in place to stretch inventory through the high-demand periods​.
Short Term: Prices are increasing.

The lobster meat market continues to experience strong demand as the holiday season progresses, with prices rising in tandem with increased activity in both the live and processed lobster sectors. Market participants report that supply constraints and heightened consumer interest are putting upward pressure on prices for various lobster products, including claw, knuckle, and tail meat. Domestic buyers are actively purchasing to meet end-of-year needs, contributing to a firm market tone.
Short Term: Prices are increasing.

The Canadian snow crab market is currently experiencing a mix of trends driven by supply constraints, pricing adjustments, and demand fluctuations. As of late 2024, snow crab prices are adjusting downward after a period of high prices. This adjustment is largely due to a tightening of supply, as catch volumes fall below historical averages. The price for 5-8 size snow crabs has dipped, marking a significant decrease from prior levels. This drop in price can be attributed to weaker demand compared to earlier in the year, with some markets being cautious about high prices. Additionally, Canadian snow crab imports have been trailing below the typical three-year average, which is also affecting pricing dynamics. Despite these fluctuations, the market is likely to remain volatile, influenced by seasonal changes and continued uncertainty about supply levels.
Short Term: Prices are increasing.

As of December 2024, the Ahi/Yellowfin Tuna wholesale market is experiencing key dynamics in both supply and demand. Pricing has fluctuated due to seasonal shifts and fishing quotas. However, ongoing overfishing concerns in critical regions like the Indian Ocean have put additional pressure on tuna stocks, impacting supply chains and pricing patterns. Alarms over the sustainability of yellowfin tuna in the Indian Ocean, where overfishing persists despite regulatory measures, may contribute to higher prices as available supply diminishes. Additionally, market trends show a modest increase in demand, particularly in the U.S. and Japan, where consumption of Ahi Tuna remains strong for both fresh and frozen products.
Short Term: Prices are increasing.

The Pangasius (Swai/Basa) wholesale market has been experiencing notable shifts in pricing, supply, and demand, especially for exports to major markets like the U.S. and China. Vietnam, the leading producer of Pangasius, has seen increased production, with a 14% rise in the Mekong Delta’s annual output in 2022. Despite this increase, challenges in securing quality fingerlings have led to higher input costs. Demand for Pangasius remains strong, particularly in the U.S. retail and hospitality sectors, where it is considered an affordable alternative to other whitefish. Pricing for Pangasius fillets has been rising, driven by strong demand in the U.S. and China. Short-term supply constraints are expected to keep prices elevated.
Short Term: Prices are increasing.

The 2024 forecast for Alaska is expected to bring the largest harvest since 2018, with a considerable increase in supply. Both Alaska and Russia are projected to have larger harvests in 2024 than in 2023. The prices of whole fish and fillets have also been somewhat impacted but are expected to stabilize with the larger 2024 harvest​. As prices for other types of salmon remain high, Keta offers a more affordable option for consumers, driving consistent demand​ Short Term: Price increasing

As of December 2024, pricing and market conditions for Chilean frozen salmon fillets, particularly for Atlantic farmed salmon, have remained relatively stable. According to both Urner Barry and Undercurrent, the market has experienced steady conditions across various products, including frozen fillets. While the market for Chilean frozen salmon fillets remains stable, it faces slight volatility influenced by supply conditions and international market preferences. Short Term: Price increasing

The spot price for Norwegian salmon has remained robust, staying significantly above the five-year average. As of early December 2024, the weekly average for Norwegian salmon was in the range of NOK 100-109/kg, continuing a trend of strong pricing​. Additionally, Norway’s export statistics show a slight decrease in salmon exports in recent months, although the value of these exports has increased. Prices have been bolstered by the global increase in feed costs, particularly fish oil, and the ongoing effects of El Niño, which have contributed to reduced fishmeal production in Peru​. There is strong international demand for Norwegian salmon, particularly from European and Asian markets, which continues to support the higher pricing. Short Term: Price increasing

The current market conditions for frozen tilapia fillets are experiencing significant shifts. The pricing gap between moisture-added and non-moisture-added tilapia from China has been widening. This has been especially noticeable in the U.S. market, where wholesale prices for frozen tilapia fillets have been dropping as demand weakens. Contributing factors include consumer inflation fatigue and high cold storage costs, both of which have reduced demand for frozen tilapia. Meanwhile, frozen tilapia prices are also facing competition from other imported seafood as importers seek to adjust to market conditions. These trends are putting pressure on prices, making it harder for suppliers to maintain margins. However, there’s a clear preference in the market for non-moisture-added tilapia fillets, which tend to have a higher market value compared to their moisture-added counterparts​. The overall demand for frozen tilapia remains stable but is not growing at the same rate it did in previous years, signaling that buyers are becoming more selective in their purchases.
Short term: Steady Price

Pond bank conditions remain steady, with a lot of fish swimming. Frozen inventory is down by about 3 to 4 million pounds from September/October, putting a harder floor on prices. Due to warm weather, farmers have had to feed the fish longer than usual, leading to a significant shortage of small whole fish. Fillets, however, are in good supply. Production has been down, as is typical for this time of year, but it will ramp up again in January.

The scallop market is experiencing a shortage of larger-sized scallops. However, with the seasonal demand in mind, packing products ahead for the holiday season has ensured a good supply of Pierport Scallops at all locations. Pricing remains elevated.

Milk output is mostly steady to stronger across the country and following the seasonal norms. Bottling and Class III demand is still creating more competition for spot supplies, while increased milk components have helped drive more products onto the market. October milk output marked another YOY increase for the US, coming in 0.2% higher despite ongoing HPAI outbreaks in California. When combined with better milkfat and skim solids, there is adequate supply of milk and cream on the market, while the strong margin structure to dairy farmers is still encouraging them to do all they can to maximize output. US dairy herds will still be limited by tight replacement heifers, but herds have increased 46,000 head in the last 3 months and are now 10,000 higher than last year.

After setting new calendar year lows earlier this month, the butter market is finding additional end user interest. This has helped to stabilize the market, while overall sentiment still suggests very comfortable supplies into the heavier baking season and holiday demand period. The recent storage report showed normal depletion in October, and overall butter supplies 11% higher than last year.  When combined with butter output running at record levels in October (+3.1% YOY) the market appears confident in product availability.  From a cream perspective, supplies are readily available and weighing on cream multiples which should encourage strong butter churning into the end of the year.  Globally, US values are now competitive but exports are minimal and we have remained a net importer.

The weakness in cheese prices earlier this month has sparked additional order interest nearby. With supplies still in recovery mode, this has added some stability to the market above the recent lows. The cold storage update which showed cheese stocks declining again in October and pushing American cheese stocks 7% lower YOY. This explains the significant run up in prices this fall, but the lack of follow through strength in prices suggests supplies are improving nearby. The USDA reported October output of American and Cheddar cheese were down 0.2% and 3.1% respectively, but were still the 2nd highest levels on record for the month. Overall the market remains confident that production schedules will be able to meet Q4/Q1 demand, along with the improved milk availability and cheese plant expansions scheduled into 2025.

The shell egg market has risen following additional bird flu outbreaks this past week. Ongoing HPAI outbreaks in California have kept cage-free supplies under pressure, and combined with holiday demand, prices are reaching new highs. This week, the price support extended to conventional shell eggs following a 4.5 million-layer outbreak in Iowa. Higher prices will limit end-user stockpiling, but concerns about supply will keep prices well supported until HPAI outbreaks slow down. Longer-term, producer margins remain favorable and should drive further flock expansion.

The soybean oil market is consolidating just above recent lows, supported by firm palm oil prices and solid export demand. Concerns about fats and oil imports in 2025, along with strong domestic and export demand for soybean oil, will limit the seasonal build of soybean oil stocks into Q1, preventing prices from dropping significantly in the near term. However, uncertainty around biofuel policy for 2025 is limiting the upside potential for prices in the interim.

Canola seed futures traded sharply higher last week following a bullish crop estimate from Statistics Canada and a recovery in soybean oil prices. Statistics Canada lowered its 2024/2025 canola production estimate by 1.0 million metric tons to 17.84 MMT, down from 19.19 MMT last year and well below the average trade estimate. ABARES is forecasting this year’s Australian canola crop at 5.6 million metric tons, an 8% decrease from last year. RBD canola oil values remained steady for the week, maintaining a modest premium over soybean oil.

Spot palm oil futures reached new multi-year highs this past week but are now coming under pressure as prices have become uncompetitive against other global vegetable oils, limiting export demand. Recent flooding in both Malaysia and Indonesia has raised production concerns, which may prevent significant downside in prices. However, palm oil prices remain historically expensive compared to alternative oils.

Cauliflower markets continue to climb due to low yields; warmer weather is expected to increase growth next week.

• Markon Essentials (ESS) Cauliflower is sporadically available; packer label is being substituted as necessary
• Prices remain extremely elevated; supplies are tight
• Limited yields out of the Holtville, California and Yuma, Arizona growing regions are pushing pricing upwards
  • Quality is fairly good; size is skewed towards smaller heads
  • Inconsistent weather has hindered growth industry-wide; both day and nighttime temperatures are below seasonal averages
  • Production is several weeks behind normal; cold weather forced growers to harvest ahead of schedule
• Reduced demand during the holidays and next week’s warmer weather will aid growth
• Markets are projected to reach their peak this week and then decline rapidly as ample supplies enter the market

Arizona/California Desert

• Total planted acreage this season is down due to repeated years of depressed markets and further irrigation restrictions
• A short supply gap hit many suppliers in mid-to late November, while the market was already elevated, driving high prices
• The Salinas season ended early due to widespread elevated insect pressure and late season heat
• The desert’s first plantings dealt with sporadic weather patterns, delaying harvests
• Consistent demand from salad processors throughout this time further inflated pricing
• Expect the market to decline through the end of this year, as mild weather finally brings on better supplies

Southeast

• Georgia’s season is off to a slow start due to cold weather and crop damage from Hurricane Helene and Milton
• North and Central Florida are beginning to see light volumes
• Expect the market to remain steady for the next two weeks

Texas/Mexico

• The season has started in South Texas (Donna region); production is light
• Sizing is predominantly medium for green and red varieties; jumbos are snug
• Quality is good; expect production to continue ramping up through mid-January
• Central Mexico cabbage, crossing into South Texas, has poor/average quality
• Jumbo sizes are mostly underweight, undersized, or unavailable due to drought issues

Lime markets are starting to rise as volume declines.

• Markon First Crop (MFC) and ESS Limes are available
• Harvests will be limited in Veracruz, Mexico this week due to rain moving into growing areas
  • Quality is good
  • Rain may lead to increased percentages of oil spotting, scarring, and stylar
• Production will be minimal next week as harvesting crews take time off in observation of the Christmas holiday
  • To avoid loading delays, Markon recommends advanced lead time for orders loading next week
  • Substituting packer label for MFC and ESS Limes may be required for late orders or additions
• Current crops are dominated by large, 110- through 150-count limes
• Smaller, 200- through 250-count fruit is becoming limited commanding higher prices
• Expect markets to inch up over the next two to three weeks

Squash prices are dropping quickly due to abundant supplies and weak demand. New crop harvesting is now established in South Florida and Sinaloa, Mexico. MFC Zucchini and Yellow Squash supplies are available.

Mexico

• The Sinaloa growing region is producing ample supplies this week
• Growers are shipping plentiful stocks out of Sonora, Mexico as well
• Overall quality is very good

Florida

• Production has begun in South Florida; stocks are increasing
• Central Florida volume will increase next week
• Expect low zucchini and yellow squash markets this week; it is an excellent time to promote squash