Market Outlook

Prices are set to trade steady to higher over the next several weeks, bridging the gap between the typical post-Labor Day demand lull and the year-end demand build that generally kicks off in late October.

Prices are holding steady to firm in defiance of seasonal norms, with strips’ strong relative value to other premium beef cuts keeping buyers engaged as a new seasonal pricing trend takes shape.

Prices have strengthened in recent weeks and are expected to remain underpinned in the near term. While meaningful holiday demand is not anticipated to emerge for several weeks, sufficient buyer activity is expected to sustain current price levels.

Prices are set to stay weak on seasonal trends, with Labor Day now behind the market and soft foodservice demand limiting any meaningful recovery.

Prices are set to trend steady to weaker on typical seasonal patterns, though top butts’ strong relative value versus other beef cuts continues to lend a degree of underlying support.

Prices are set to hold firm through September on seasonal trends, with post-Labor Day demand softness offset by Yom Kippur holiday buying on September 21 and tighter supplies keeping values underpinned.

Prices are anticipated to soften in the coming weeks as post-Labor Day residual demand fades considerably, leaving the market to contend with additional loads of product in search of buyers.

Prices are anticipated to stabilize at a more neutral tone as the supportive effect of lower slaughter levels is counterbalanced by the seasonal retreat in post-summer grilling demand.

Prices are poised to find a balanced tone despite typical September seasonal pressure, with growing inside round demand and moderating beef production keeping values underpinned.

Prices are expected to remain supported through September, resisting the typical seasonal tendency toward softer values, as retail buyers continuing to trade down the carcass sustain robust demand for quality ground products such as Ground Chuck.

Prices are set to ease seasonally into September, though tight supplies relative to demand should soften the blow compared to prior years, while the Administration’s lean trimming import plan at a 25% discount is expected to have little bearing on fresh lean trimmings.

WOGs close out the week on a steady note. Trading activity remains relatively light heading into the weekend, with moderate demand generally well-balanced against available supplies. Movement across weight categories is orderly, and market conditions remain stable as buyers and sellers continue to operate within established market dynamics.

Trade in breasts and front halves remains somewhat uneven, though overall market conditions continue to support a steady tone. Conditions in the boneless breast market also vary among participants, with differences in availability and trading activity contributing to a mixed outlook. Combo pack demand remains balanced, while boxed product continues to find generally supportive interest. Despite these variations, the broader breast meat complex remains largely stable. Tenders enter the holiday period on a steady footing, supported by balanced supply and demand fundamentals. Trading activity remains limited, however, as many participants have largely covered their near-term needs ahead of the extended weekend.

All sizes of wings remain pressured by lackluster demand, with the most prevalent discounting noted for the small offerings.

In the back half of the bird, market conditions remain constructive, with legs, leg quarters, drums, and thighs continuing to move through available channels without difficulty. Demand from both domestic and export buyers remains healthy, helping to support overall market balance. Interest in thigh meat and leg meat is particularly strong, with buyers actively seeking coverage and contributing to a firm market tone across the complex.

Frozen whole turkeys remain difficult to source, with available production generally held in confident hands. At the same time, spot market activity is limited, as constrained supplies are met with a degree of buyer caution. In the breast meat complex, offerings of both consumer and institutional-sized products remain tight relative to demand. Despite these supply challenges, most market participants describe conditions as stable, with trading activity continuing at established market levels.

Availability of fresh tom breast meat remains somewhat inconsistent across the market, though current production continues to find a home without difficulty. Market conditions vary by participant, but overall demand remains sufficient to keep supplies moving at an orderly pace. Offerings of frozen tom breast meat have become less visible in recent weeks, reflecting tighter availability. Even so, buyer interest remains moderate, supporting generally stable market conditions. Some participants continue to note pressure within the tender market, stemming from the unusually narrow spread between fresh tenders and fresh tom breast meat. However, spot market activity remains limited. Thigh meat continues to move well through available channels, supported by steady demand and balanced market fundamentals. Demand for ground breast trim, scapula, and ground wing meat remains somewhat subdued, though overall market sentiment remains supportive. Meanwhile, fresh and frozen mechanically separated turkey (MST) continue to trade with considerable variation depending on product availability and individual market circumstances.

Prices are projected to trade steady to lower through September, in line with typical seasonal patterns for the month. Foodservice demand is anticipated to stay constrained by lower volumes, while retail demand is expected to soften consistent with seasonal norms.

Prices will remain under soft seasonal pressure through September, with loin demand drawing modest support from relative value while ample supplies keep the market more than adequately stocked.

Prices are set to soften in September as post-Labor Day demand fades and pork production climbs, with weak export demand compounding the pressure and leaving the market with limited support.

Prices are anticipated to trade steady to lower over the next several weeks, consistent with typical seasonal patterns. Although butts continue to represent compelling value relative to other pork items, overall demand is expected to remain subdued.

Prices are expected to remain soft as improved production and lackluster demand continue to keep supply ample, though the back-to-school season and the potential for strengthening Mexican export demand should lend a degree of underlying support and limit further downside.

White shrimp market remains stable overall, driven by lower inbound product price from India offsetting higher costs of product out of central America. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention. Expecting prices to rise in Q3/4 with new tariffs.

Black shrimp market remains stable overall, with some lower pricing noted on Headless shell on and smaller sizes. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention. expecting prices to rise in Q3/4 with new tariffs.

Pricing remains firm, large sizes (U10-U8) remain very tight to unavailable due to MMPA restrictions on key catch areas for these sizes.

Warm water lobster has stabilized with some lower pricing offers presenting in larger sizes. High volume sizes (5-8oz) remain stable and is showing signs of increase as supply tightens.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Canadian Snow crab has started trending north from the bottom of the market in May expect a tight and expensive supply in off season. There may be some deals to be had in September if suppliers get backed up but that currently seems unlikely.

Prices have leveled off with the continued lack of Russian product in the market, some sizes remain scarce but product is available.

Prices remain stable at current levels, several countries are experiencing quality and consistency issues.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

Salmon market has leveled off and remains stable at current rates, we are not seeing the seasonally expected decline in COG’s as of yet but are actively reviewing for opportunities.

Salmon market has leveled off and remains stable at current rates, we are not seeing the seasonally expected decline in COG’s as of yet but are actively reviewing for opportunities.

Salmon market has leveled off and remains stable at current rates, we are not seeing the seasonally expected decline in COG’s as of yet but are actively reviewing for opportunities.

Supply remains stable out of Asia, South and Central American supply remains strained and continues to be an issue.

Market to slightly increase in coming weeks as processors experience higher labor and fuel costs.

Scallops remain firm with smaller sizes softening in demand in recent weeks, quotas remain in place at much lower levels than last year so anticipate any cost relief to be temporary. Quarterly scallop pricing to refresh next week, will see a slight increase in pricing.

Prices continue to rise as availability remains strained globally, key sizes and cuts are being allocated across all major suppliers.

Pacific cod season has ended and supply is about 20% of expectation – supply and pricing is expected to be very high at least until B season kicks off in August/September. We have secured enough cod to get us to the next season, expect pricing to continue to rise by as much as 20%.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

MMPA is still an unknown – pricing remains high but stable.

Season is in full swing, boat pricing is down slightly from the opener but prices remain at record levels – predominant factor is fuel prices.

Milk production continues to run at record levels despite seasonally tighter availability nearby, and starting to benefit from cooler temperatures. The reduced summer output and increased bottling demand from schools have created a more competitive situation for fluid supply and is limiting short term downside. US milk production in July jumped 2.2% YOY as another 33k head were added from the initial June estimate. This is the largest US herd in 33 years and is keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, strong milk fat tests and protein demand have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market. Overall supplies remain comfortable.

The domestic butter continues to trade back towards the January lows but has noted strong demand given historic value and the seasonal bias for prices to rally into early Q4. This has supported butter prices on these breaks, while abundant butterfat has been a huge barrier to higher prices. Record milk production has kept abundant supplies of cream coming to market and butter churns continuing to run at record levels. The USDA reported July butter production set another monthly record and was 5.5% higher YOY. Even with strong domestic offtake, this is keeping the market extremely well supplied. Updated cold storage levels confirmed stocks are seasonally declining and remain 3% lower than last year, but that the seasonal drawdown from June was the smallest since 2020. Record domestic consumption and an extremely competitive export bid are working to clear the excess production coming to market from the record churn pace seen so far this year, however ongoing impressive milk output has kept butter churns full and running hard, requiring aggressive pricing to drive demand.

The domestic block cheese market continues to slowly grind lower this week. Record milk production helped drive record cheese production in July, which came in 2.1% higher than last year. American and cheddar cheese lost some of the priority from producers seen in June, and were actually down -1.1% and -1.7% YOY respectively as schedules favored Mozzarella in July. However, the larger overall cheese output will continue to keep pressure on the export markets to clear additional supplies as domestic demand has been lower YOY in 3 of the past 4 months. The export market remains competitive and is limiting upside given the need for domestic prices to stay cheap enough to encourage that much needed export demand. The US saw record cheese exports in July, coming in 25% higher than last year and helping prevent stocks from becoming burdensome. The most recent Cold Storage report showed that cheese supplies are seasonally declining, but at a slower than normal pace.

The domestic shell egg market is attempting to stabilize just above the summer lows as renewed order interest emerges. After the run-up in prices during July, buyers (both retail and foodservice) adjusted tactics to just replenish inventories to cover immediate needs, but now with prices again providing historical value, depleted pipelines are starting to be refilled. There are still plenty of eggs coming to market, but the market is again coming into a better balance. The forward outlook has some risk factors that should limit downside, with HPAI concerns starting back up with the fall migration season in September and October, along with the normal increase in retail and foodservice demand into the colder months of the year.

The soybean oil market has strengthened toward the upper end of its recent trading range, supported by higher energy values and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Firm diesel prices and supportive biofuel demand continue to provide a solid foundation for end-user interest, while constrained vegetable oil exports from the Black Sea region add further support. Market participants remain closely focused on global vegetable oil dynamics, as imports are expected to play an important role in balancing growing demand tied to biofuels. As a result, broader energy markets, trade flows, and international vegetable oil supplies continue to be key drivers of soybean oil market direction.

The November canola seed futures are back near the contract highs this week as the market continues to mimic the movement in the soybean complex. With the ongoing issues in the Black Sea, Canadian canola is expected to be in high demand domestically and from their traditional export markets such as China, Japan and Mexico. RBD canola oil basis levels remained mostly steady last week with end user coverage extended out through Q4.

The spot palm oil futures are slightly lower this week but still consolidating just shy of the recent highs. Updated Malaysian Palm Oil Board data showed stocks growing to an 8-month high and a record for the month. However, even with the well supplied nearby market, increasing renewable fuel demand in Indonesia and Malaysia, along with ongoing concerns from El Nino production losses into 2027 have kept forward prices estimates firm.

Asparagus supplies remain critically short as production struggles to keep pace with demand across both Mexico and Peru. Jumbo and extra-large sizes are especially limited; overall size continues to skew heavily toward smaller spears. Expect significantly higher pricing, limited substitutions, and ongoing size restrictions.

Customers should plan for supply limitations, particularly on jumbo and extra-large size orders. Please communicate substitution flexibility as early as possible.

Mexico

• Markon First Crop (MFC) Asparagus is limited; packer label is being substituted as needed
• Jumbo and extra-large sizes remain extremely limited and are expected to remain scarce until early next year
• Size continues to skew heavily toward small and standard spears, limiting availability of larger grades
• Production is gradually increasing and will continue to build throughout September
• Persistent heat in Southern Baja has also impacted overall yields
• Quality ranges from fair to good, with primary concerns including:
  • Undersizing
  • Dehydration and wrinkled spears

Peru (into South Florida)

• Peruvian supplies remain limited as warmer-than-normal growing conditions continue to suppress yields
• Jumbo and extra-large supplies remain extremely tight, with production heavily weighted toward small, standard, and large sizes
• Warm conditions are expected to persist into the upcoming Peruvian summer months
• New crop quality is generally good from southern growing districts

Expect elevated markets, restricted availability, and continued challenges sourcing jumbo and extra-large sizes.

Industry supplies have improved as new acreage enters first-cut production; however, sweet baby broccoli and broccolini supplies are experiencing increased insect activity. Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) 3/2lb Broccolini is available. Markon First Crop (MFC) Broccolini (18-count packs) is being substituted into packer brand as needed.

• Overall supplies have increased as new acres come into first-cut production
• Recent heat and humidity have accelerated insect activity across Central Coast growing regions, specifically the diamondback moth (DBM)
• A warm September forecast is expected to further increase DBM pressure
• Harvest and packing crews are implementing aggressive sorting practices to remove affected product whenever possible but some insect/larva presence may be unavoidable under current growing conditions
• Overall quality remains good, but DBM pressure may continue to challenge growers through the remainder of the Fall season

As supplies tighten, prices will rise. MFC Cantaloupe and Honeydew Melons are available.

Cantaloupe

San Joaquin Valley, California

• Last week’s cooler weather greatly reduced growth in some fields; while temperatures are expected to climb this week, the heat will be short-lived
• Insect and virus pressure are negatively impacting crops
• Large sizes, especially nine-count and jumbo nine-count melons, are snug this week; 15-count remains the tightest
• Quality is solid; sugar levels range from 12-15% Brix
• Markets will inch up over the next two weeks

Honeydew

San Joaquin Valley, California

• Volume has decreased due to recent cool weather
• Smaller sizes, eight-count in particular, are limited
• Quality is good, with clean external appearance and sugar levels ranging from 11-14% Brix
• Prices will continue to inch up, then stabilize in mid-September

Cauliflower prices continue to climb as supplies tighten and quality challenges persist. Elevated Diamondback moth (DBM) pressure, combined with recent heat and humidity, is reducing yields and impacting overall quality. Markon Essentials (ESS) Cauliflower is available.

• Salinas yields are expected to remain limited through next week
• DBM activity remains elevated
• Recent heat and moisture are expected to prolong and potentially worsen quality concerns
• Santa Maria growers report increasing insect pressure, intensified by warm weather; lower yields will push up markets
• Maine production is in full swing, providing additional regional supplements
• Eastern Canadian volume remains strong; harvesting will run into early October
• Expect cauliflower markets to remain firm and trend higher in the near term

Cilantro supplies are tightening as sustained heat across California growing regions continues to impact yields and product quality. Markets are rising as growers contend with lower-than-normal volume. Seasonal rains in Central Mexico are contributing to the shortages, creating shelf-life concerns and sporadic quality defects on imported product.

• RSS Cilantro is available (100% Grown in the USA); packer label is being substituted when necessary
• Above-normal temperatures throughout Salinas, Santa Maria, and Oxnard are contributing to lighter harvests and declining field quality
• Heat-related quality concerns include:
  • Bolting and seeder development
  • Yellowing and discoloration
  • Premature decay and shortened shelf life
• Overall quality ranges from fair to good, but field variability is increasing
• Expect rising prices and intermittent quality challenges to persist through the near term as heat stress continues to pressure production and overall availability

Green onion prices remain elevated as persistent heat and border issues impact production in the Mexicali growing region of Mexico. RSS Green Onions are available; packer label is being substituted as needed.

• Prolonged high temperatures throughout the Mexicali growing region have accelerated crop maturity and reduced yields
• Heat stress has accelerated younger plantings, creating concerns around future production gaps and reduced supply continuity
• Overall quality is good; however, potential heat-related problems may include:
  • Dehydration
  • Discoloration
  • Early decay
  • Tip burn
• Supplies are currently adequate, but availability will tighten as harvest challenges persist
• Expect continued upward pricing pressure through September as heat and supply constraints impact overall production

The California Valencia crop remains heavily weighted toward larger sizes (56- through 88-count fruit), while availability of smaller sizes (113- through 138-count oranges) continues to tighten. Quality is the primary concern in the orange category, with imported fruit consistently demonstrating significantly better overall quality compared to domestic supplies.

Domestic

• MFC and ESS Valencia Oranges are available
• Supplies are dominated by large sizes (56- to 88-count pieces); smaller sizes (113 to 138-count oranges) continue to be extremely tight
• Expect 113- and 138-count oranges to remain scarce through October; size, grade, and country of origin substitutions will be needed to fill orders
• Early signs of decay, puffing/creasing, and overmaturity are being driven by previous wet weather conditions; fruit may appear sound at packing but can begin breaking down days later
• Markon recommends ordering for quick turns
• Expect elevated markets and limited supplies of all small fruit through early October

Imports

• Chilean, South African, and Peruvian oranges are being imported into both the East and West Coasts
• Expect 15kg 105-count to 113-count oranges to remain in tight supply for the balance of the season as the crop continues to size up, resulting in more large fruit
• Quality is great
  • Color is deep orange
  • Skin texture is smooth
  • Sugar levels range from 12-13% Brix
• Expect elevated markets for small-size oranges as supplies diminish

MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available in Idaho, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Volume is steady with multiple growing regions now in play, and more to start over the next several weeks. Markets are steady.

Idaho

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available
• New crop supplies are dominated by A-sizes; B-sizes are available with limited supplies of C-sizes
• Quality is very good
• Harvests will finish in late September when growers transition to storage potatoes

Wisconsin

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available
• A-size potatoes continue to dominate supplies; B-sizes are somewhat limited
• Quality and color is excellent
• Harvests will finish in late September to early October before transitioning to storage supplies

Minnesota

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available
• Suppliers report adequate volume on all sizes for both colors
• Quality and color are excellent
• Supplies will ship until the first week or two of October

Washington

• Production of new crop red and yellow potatoes is ramping up
• Size is leaning heavily towards larger A-sizes to start the season
• Quality and color are good

Colorado

• Colorado white and yellow potato harvests have started; reds will start in mid- to late September
• Supplies are dominated by A-sizes, with some B-sizes also available
• Quality is good; color is somewhat light compared to other regions

Canada

• Canadian-grown yellow and white potato harvests are underway; reds will begin in two to three weeks
• Supplies are dominated by A-sizes, with some B-sizes
• Quality and color are excellent

North Dakota

• Harvests will begin in early October

West Coast squash supplies remain tight. Eastern production is increasing in North Carolina and Georgia; expect better availability in 10 to 14 days. MFC Zucchini and Yellow Squash are available.

East Coast   

• Yellow Squash
  • Additional volume is expected over the next 10 to 14 days
  • Growers are transitioning to new fields in North Carolina and Georgia, increasing yields
  • Quality is good
  • Prices are easing
• Zucchini
  • Supplies are becoming more plentiful
  • Quality is good
  • Markets are softening

Midwest

• Yellow Squash
  • Stocks are tighter than zucchini
  • Quality is good
  • Prices are active due to strong demand
• Zucchini
  • Supplies are more abundant
  • Quality is good
  • Markets are inching down

West Coast

• Zucchini and Yellow Squash
  • Expect low volume through September
  • Overall quality is good with some light scarring
• California’s San Joaquin Valley will start harvesting new-crop fall sets of both zucchini and yellow squash this week
• Expect prices to ease slightly over the next two weeks

The strawberry market remains supply driven as demand exceeds available volume. Abnormally high temperatures across California strawberry growing regions will create quality challenges in the weeks ahead.

Santa Maria, California 

• Markon First Crop (MFC) Strawberries are available
• Berry size is medium, averaging 20-24 berries per 8/1-pound clamshell
• Quality is good, with only minor bruising being reported
• Volume continues to increase as fall production ramps up
• Demand remains strong, and elevated markets are expected through next week

Watsonville/Salinas

• MFC Strawberries are available
• Berry size is medium, averaging 22 to 26 berries per 8/1-pound clamshell
• Quality is fair, with some reports of misshapen fruit, bruising, and soft skin
• Maintaining the cold chain is critical to maximize shelf life; quick inventory turns are recommended
• Strong demand and elevated pricing are expected through the next two weeks.

East Coast tomato production is increasing as Virginia harvests begin this week. Overall supply is moderate; growers are shifting from summer to fall growing regions during the month of September.

Rounds

• East Coast and Midwest
  • Virginia harvests are getting underway this week
  • Tennessee production continues
  • Michigan volume is increasing as the area is seeing ideal weather
  • Quality is good
• Mexico
  • Production is moderate/steady out of Baja and Central Mexico
  • 6×7 is the most plentiful size
  • Quality is good
• California
  • Growers are transitioning from summer to autumn acreage
  • Quality is good  despite recent heat
• Markets are inching up due to lower total volume

Romas

• East Coast
  • Supplies are sufficient in Tennessee
  • Overall quality is good
• Mexico
  • Volume has dipped due to recent rains in Central Mexico and Baja
  • Quality is best out of Baja region
• California
  • Roma supplies are lower; recent heat is affecting yields
  • Large sizes are the most abundant
  • Quality is good
• Prices are up slightly due to lower yields

Grape and Cherry

• East Coast
  • Volume is increasing in Virginia
  • Expect prices to remain steady for the next few weeks
• Mexico
  • Overall production is light due to recent rains in Baja and Central Mexico
  • Quality out of Central Mexico ranges from fair to average due to poor weather