Market Outlook

Prices will hold firm in the weeks ahead as the market navigates the transitional period between the typical post-Labor Day demand slowdown and the year-end demand build that generally gains momentum in late October.

Market conditions are expected to remain steady to firm over the next several weeks, supported by factors that are likely to counter the typical seasonal softening pattern. While market fundamentals may fluctuate, overall sentiment points to a stable environment with modest upside potential through year-end.

Market conditions are expected to remain steady to firm in the coming months, supported by typical seasonal demand patterns. While retail and foodservice demand is anticipated to be more moderate than in prior years, overall market fundamentals should remain supportive, helping to maintain a stable market environment through year-end.

Prices expected to take on a more neutral tone into October after recent strength, with grilling demand in the rearview and retail buyers shifting focus away from tri-tips toward other beef items.

Market conditions are expected to be steady to slightly weaker into October as retail demand gradually moderates heading into the fall season. Despite this softer demand outlook, underlying market fundamentals are expected to provide support through year-end. Recent retail performance indicates only modest movement in sirloin demand compared with the broader beef category, reflecting a more measured consumer purchasing environment. Overall, the market is expected to remain stable, with limited downside risk in the months ahead.

Prices are set to stay firm even with Labor Day and Yom Kippur demand behind the market, as a solid demand base and stepped-up QSR promotional activity at foodservice keep values supported.

Prices are set to remain soft following their typical seasonal path, with values historically carving out annual lows in the back half of October as demand eases and supplies build, leaving little near-term catalyst for a rebound.

Prices are poised to hold in a narrow range despite strong seasonal softness pressure into October, with retail buyers trading down the carcass from higher-value items providing above-normal underlying support.

Prices are expected to trade steady to lower in the coming weeks, in line with typical seasonal trends, as supplies remain adequate to meet prevailing demand.

Prices have declined only modestly following Labor Day, as sustained retail demand for quality ground beef products continues to provide underlying support. A steady to lower price trend, similar to the pattern observed last year, is likely to persist through the end of 2026.

Prices are set to ease modestly as seasonal softness into October weighs on the market, though tight fresh lean trimming supplies should provide strong underlying support and limit the downside.

WOG markets remain steady as the week comes to a close. Overall activity is relatively quiet, though retail demand associated with early-month business is beginning to surface for next week. Trading volumes were limited, with little market activity to suggest any meaningful change in current conditions. Supply and demand remain generally balanced, supporting a stable market environment heading into the new month.

The white meat complex remains quiet, with fewer jumbo and NAE boneless breast offerings available on the spot market. Excess inventories have eased, resulting in a more balanced supply picture, though some participants report tightening availability heading into next week. Medium boneless breast supplies remain readily available, while overall offerings have become less abundant as the week closes. Tender markets are similarly quiet, with buyers continuing to cover near-term needs and spot supplies becoming less visible. Market conditions remain generally stable heading into next week.

Wings are mixed, with demand continuing to vary by participant and channel. Jumbo wings are drawing both bearish and bullish undertones, while medium and small-sized offerings remain generally well cleared.

Conditions across the back half remain largely unchanged. Leg and thigh supplies continue to be tight, with some buyers reporting availability below current requirements. Leg quarters and drums are more readily available, though market activity varies across regions and channels. Demand for thigh and leg meat remains strong, and securing spot loads continues to be challenging in some cases due to limited availability. Overall, supply constraints within key back-half products continue to support a firm market tone.

Trade of frozen whole turkeys remains very slow to surface, with the limited transactions that take place supporting listed assessments. Hens are especially difficult to procure. The consumer and institutional-sized breasts are well-cleared, and that market appears to be steady.

The market for fresh and frozen breast meat is relatively well-balanced. Tenders trade in a mostly stable manner, though demand is somewhat quiet. The call for thigh meat is described as moderate, and pricing is steady. Meanwhile, the markets for ground breast trim, scapula, and ground wing meat appear to be quiet and uneventful. Fresh and frozen MST is rated steady to start the morning.

Market conditions have softened over the past month and are expected to remain under seasonal pressure through the end of the year. Weaker domestic demand and increased production continue to weigh on overall market sentiment. That said, downside risk appears more limited at current levels, as improving value opportunities may begin to attract renewed buyer interest and provide support to the market in the months ahead.

Prices are expected to remain under soft seasonal pressure through September. While loin demand is drawing modest support from relative value, ample supplies continue to keep the market well stocked.

Prices are set to trend steady to lower with grilling demand behind the market and production rising seasonally, though ribs’ attractive value at current levels should lend some near-term support.

Prices are likely to trade steady to lower over the next several weeks, consistent with typical seasonal patterns. Butts continue to offer compelling value relative to other pork items, and increased retail featuring activity should help limit the extent of any price decline.

After pulling back from early July highs, prices have found support and are poised to trade mostly steady through year-end, as near-term headwinds from rising production and soft retail demand are offset by continued export interest from Asia and Mexico.

White shrimp market remains stable overall, driven by lower inbound product price from India offsetting higher costs of product out of central America. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention. Expecting prices to rise in Q3/4 with new tariffs.

Black shrimp market remains stable overall, with some lower pricing noted on Headless shell on and smaller sizes. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention. expecting prices to rise in Q3/4 with new tariffs.

Pricing remains firm, large sizes (U10-U8) remain very tight to unavailable due to MMPA restrictions on key catch areas for these sizes.

Warm water lobster has stabilized with some lower pricing offers presenting in larger sizes. High volume sizes (5-8oz) remain stable and is showing signs of increase as supply tightens.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Canadian Snow crab has started trending north from the bottom of the market in May expect a tight and expensive supply in off season. There may be some deals to be had in September if suppliers get backed up but that currently seems unlikely.

Prices have leveled off with the continued lack of Russian product in the market, some sizes remain scarce but product is available.

Prices remain stable at current levels, several countries are experiencing quality and consistency issues.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

Salmon market has started to increase ahead of season, salmon likely to be very expensive in Q1/2.

Salmon market has started to increase ahead of season, salmon likely to be very expensive in Q1/2.

Salmon market has started to increase ahead of season, salmon likely to be very expensive in Q1/2.

Supply remains stable out of Asia, South and Central American supply remains strained and continues to be an issue.

Market to slightly increase in coming weeks as processors experience higher labor and fuel costs.

Scallops remain firm with smaller sizes softening in demand in recent weeks, quotas remain in place at much lower levels than last year so anticipate any cost relief to be temporary. Quarterly scallop pricing to refresh next week, will see a slight increase in pricing.

Prices continue to rise as availability remains strained globally, key sizes and cuts are being allocated across all major suppliers.

Pacific cod season has ended and supply is about 20% of expectation – supply and pricing is expected to be very high at least until B season kicks off in August/September. We have secured enough cod to get us to the next season, expect pricing to continue to rise by as much as 20%.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

MMPA is still an unknown – pricing remains high but stable.

Season is in full swing, boat pricing is down slightly from the opener but prices remain at record levels – predominant factor is fuel prices.

Milk production continues to run at record levels despite some seasonally tighter availability nearby. The reduced summer output is giving way to cooler temperatures and increased productivity, while ongoing bottling demand has created a more competitive situation for fluid supplies. US milk production in August jumped 1.7% YOY as domestic heads remained at their 33-year highs, keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, strong milk fat tests and protein demand have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market. Overall supplies remain comfortable, while firm powder markets are keeping milk values rangebound.

The domestic butter continues to trade back towards the January lows but has noted strong demand given historic value and the seasonal bias for prices to rally into early Q4. This has supported butter prices on these breaks, while abundant butterfat has been a huge barrier to higher prices. Record milk production has kept abundant supplies of cream coming to market and butter churns continuing to run at record levels. The USDA reported July butter production set another monthly record and was 5.5% higher YOY. Even with strong domestic offtake, this is keeping the market extremely well supplied. The most recent cold storage levels confirmed stocks are seasonally declining and remain 3% lower than last year, but that the seasonal drawdown from June was the smallest since 2020. Record domestic consumption and an extremely competitive export bid are working to clear the excess production coming to market from the record churn pace seen so far this year, however ongoing impressive milk output has kept butter churns full and running hard, requiring aggressive pricing to drive demand.

The domestic block cheese market continues to slowly grind lower this week. Record milk production helped drive record cheese production in July, which came in 2.1% higher than last year. American and cheddar cheese lost some of the priority from producers seen in June, and were actually down -1.1% and -1.7% YOY respectively as schedules favored Mozzarella in July. However, the larger overall cheese output will continue to keep pressure on the export markets to clear additional supplies as domestic demand has been lower YOY in 4 of the past 5 months. The export market remains competitive and is limiting upside given the need for domestic prices to stay cheap enough to encourage that much needed export demand. The US saw record cheese exports in July, coming in 25% higher than last year and helping prevent stocks from becoming burdensome. The most recent Cold Storage report showed that cheese supplies are seasonally declining, but at a slower than normal pace.

The domestic shell egg market is attempting to stabilize just above the summer lows as renewed order interest emerges. After the run-up in prices during July, buyers (both retail and foodservice) adjusted tactics to just replenish inventories to cover immediate needs, but now with prices again providing historical value, depleted pipelines are starting to be refilled. There are still plenty of eggs coming to market, but the market is again coming into a better balance. The forward outlook has some risk factors that should limit downside, with HPAI concerns starting back up with the fall migration season in September and October, along with the normal increase in retail and foodservice demand into the colder months of the year.

The soybean oil market remains rangebound as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elevated energy markets continue to influence sentiment. Strong renewable fuel demand, supportive biofuel policies, and constrained global vegetable oil supplies continue to provide underlying support. At the same time, increased feedstock imports have helped satisfy a portion of demand, easing some pressure on the domestic soybean oil market. Market direction remains closely tied to global vegetable oil fundamentals, as imports continue to play an important role in balancing growing biofuel-related demand.

The November canola futures market is consolidating near contract highs, largely tracking movements in the broader oilseed complex. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding global trade flows continues to support demand expectations for Canadian canola in both domestic and key export markets. Recent inventory data indicates supplies remain above year-ago levels but below historical levels seen in recent years. Meanwhile, canola oil values have shown modest easing, though overall market fundamentals remain supportive as participants monitor export demand and developments across competing vegetable oil markets.

The spot palm oil futures finding solid buying interest off last week’s lows. Updated Malaysian Palm Oil Board data showed stocks growing to an 8-month high and a record for the month. However, even with the well supplied nearby market, increasing renewable fuel demand in Indonesia and Malaysia, along with ongoing concerns from El Nino production losses into 2027 have kept forward prices estimates firm.

Although fall harvesting transitions have begun on the East Coast, green bell pepper prices are holding steady. Markon First Crop (MFC) and Markon Essentials (ESS) Green and Red Bell Peppers are available.

Green Bells

• California green bell supplies are centered in Hollister
  • The season will run through mid- to late October
  • Quality is very good; No. 1 grade supplies will tighten by early October
  • Coachella production is expected to start in mid-October; however, volume will be low during the transition
• East Coast yields will increase
  • The Michigan season is winding down; Ohio harvests will wrap up in early October
  • Southeastern production will increase by mid-October
  • Western North Carolina is shipping at this time
  • Quality is very good
• Expect steady markets over the next week, followed by upward pressure heading into October

Red Bells

• California red bell supplies are currently shipping from Hollister and Oxnard
  • Production is expected to continue into early November
  • Oxnard is seeing some quality and yield challenges, so fields are being harvested selectively
• Volume is steady out of Central Mexico (crossing into South Texas)
• Canadian greenhouse production continues to provide good availability
• Expect steady to slightly higher prices over the next two weeks

Industry supplies are extremely tight. Elevated insect pressure and low yields continue to limit both broccolini and sweet baby broccoli availability. Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Broccolini is available. MFC Broccolini is being substituted into packer label as needed.

• Overall supplies are extremely limited
• Elevated Diamondback moth (DBM) pressure has reduced volume
• A warm September has intensified insect activity across growing regions
• Overall quality remains good; however, DBM pressure is expected to continue challenging growers through the rest of the fall season
• Supplies will remain tight through the end of the season
• Expect active markets while demand exceeds available supply levels

The California pear season is expected to end by mid-October. New crop Washington Bartlett supplies are available.

• California Bartlett pears are winding down and expected to finish in the next three to four weeks
• The 110-count size is the smallest being shipped; 135-count and smaller sizes are depleted
• Washington growers are shipping ample supplies of Bartletts
  • The crop is dominated by 90- through 110-count sizes
  • Quality is very good with minimal issues
• Light production of the D’Anjou variety is underway; yields will increase by mid-October

Supplies are tight but will increase over the next 10 days. New crop supplies are increasing in Georgia. The Midwest season will wind down over the next 10 to 14 days. MFC Zucchini and Yellow Squash are available.

East Coast   

• Yellow Squash
  • Market remains firmer than zucchini due to lower overall availability
  • Current yields are slightly below normal, but supplies will become more plentiful next week as Georgia production increases
  • Quality is fair
• Zucchini
  • Prices are lower and yields are higher compared to yellow squash
  • Quality is good

Midwest

• Yellow Squash
  • Yields are tighter than zucchini
  • Cooler weather has moved into the region; temperatures are expected to remain in the 60s through the week
  • Quality is fair
• Zucchini
  • Supplies are more abundant than yellow squash
  • Markets have inched down slightly
  • Quality is fair
• Season Outlook
  • Production will wind down over the next two weeks

West Coast

• Zucchini and yellow squash supplies are snug due to cooler weather
  • Zucchini quality is very good; yellow squash has average quality with some scarring
  • California’s season will wind down over the next month; growers will then transition to Mexico
  • Expect elevated prices to persist over the next two weeks

Open-market strawberry prices have declined due to weak demand, creating a softer market with plentiful availability.

Santa Maria, California 

• MF Strawberries are available
• Berry size is medium, averaging 22-26 berries per 8/1-pound clamshell
• Quality ranges from fair to good, with reports of sun scalding, soft skin, and overripe fruit
• Volume continues to increase as fall production ramps up
• Maintaining the cold chain is critical to maximize shelf life; quick inventory turns are recommended
• The market is expected to remain steady until demand strengthens and absorbs the increasing supply

Watsonville/Salinas

• MFC Strawberries are available
• Berry size is medium, with counts ranging from 24 to 28 berries per 8/1-pound clamshell
• Quality is currently fair, with occasional reports of misshapen fruit, bruising, and soft skin
• Maintaining the cold chain is critical to maximizing shelf life; quick inventory turns are recommended
• The season is expected to end in late September
• Expect steady prices until demand rises

Oxnard, California

• Limited production has begun
• Markon’s first loading day is September 28