Market Outlook

Prices are expected to trade sideways in the coming weeks. Retail featuring for both boneless and bone-in Ribeye Steaks eased in the week ended April 10, falling below prior week and year-ago levels. Foodservice demand is expected to remain moderate to soft heading into May.

Prices will remain firm throughout April, underpinned by typical seasonal patterns. This cut continues to dominate consumer preference within the middle meats category, though further price appreciation may face resistance as consumers are unlikely to chase the market higher.

Prices are expected to find a more balanced tone heading into May, despite the typical seasonal tendency to strengthen this time of year. Cautious foodservice demand should keep upward price movement in check.

Prices are expected to hold firm through April, bucking the typical seasonal pattern. The underlying strength reflects a combination of expanded foodservice menu placement and growing retail demand as grilling season approaches.

Prices are expected to remain firm heading into May, as tight overall beef supplies coincide with more aggressive retail purchasing. Sirloin steaks should attract increased consumer interest at the meat case, particularly among shoppers seeking value amid elevated middle meat prices.

Prices are expected to hold firm moving into May, consistent with seasonal trends. Growing foodservice interest and limited supply should allow packers to maintain their asking prices in the coming weeks.

Prices are expected to remain strong into May, consistent with seasonal trends. Persistent foodservice demand should provide continued underlying support.

Prices are poised to strengthen further in the coming weeks, consistent with seasonal trends. Retail demand is expected to remain robust, even as featuring activity runs lighter than normal.

Prices are expected to remain soft in the coming weeks as moderating demand from domestic channels, will keep downward pressure on prices.

Prices are expected to hold firm through April, supported by solid retail demand for quality ground product. While consumer resistance typically emerges at these levels, that threshold looks increasingly likely to be tested as spring advances.

Prices are expected to hold firm, underpinned by strong retail demand and tightening fresh lean supplies. With grilling season approaching, demand shows no signs of easing — a dynamic that should sustain upward pressure on values.

WOGs maintain a steady rating, with retail purchasing channels taking the most enthusiastic approach in their procurement efforts. Deboning outreach, on the other hand, is less lively when compared to the recent past. The 3–3.5 lb. and 3.5–4 lb. birds remain unchanged.

Bone-in breasts and front halves are uneventful, closing the morning unchanged and termed as steady. When it comes to jumbo boneless breasts, spot offerings are at least adequate across most points of sale, with medium-sized production also surfacing with increased frequency on the spot market. This scenario prompts sellers to remain flexible on their asking prices if it means stirring up some additional business. Select-sized boneless breasts are stable at listed levels. Tenders close the morning under a full steady rating, with spot availability ranging from adequate to barely adequate, depending on the player in question.

Wings remain in an unsettled state. Here, jumbo-sized offerings find a home at supportive price points, though spot demand leaves much to be desired in the minds of most marketers. Medium and small-sized production is fully adequate against a fair demand backdrop, placing downward pressure on spot values.

The back half of the bird closes in a steady state overall. Legs, leg quarters, thighs, and drums all find a home at market-supportive price points. Some players suggest that spot availability isn’t quite as visible as it has been in the recent past. Thigh meat is a mixed bag with some players suggesting that demand patterns are continuing to outpace current supplies, while others note that a degree of buy-side price sensitivity has begun to surface. Leg meat follows a similar path as the day prior, with recent dialogue suggesting that the relatively wide price spread between leg meat and thigh meat has resulted in pockets of additional value-oriented outreach efforts.

Frozen whole turkey offerings are extremely limited, but when production does show, many buyers are hesitant to purchase at the current asking prices. In response, quotations for the frozen 12 lbs. hens and 16 lbs. toms remain unchanged. The consumer and institutional-sized breasts trade quietly at supportive values. Any offerings that are made available are quickly absorbed.

Fresh breast meat trades more regularly on the spot market, but most negotiations support a steady market. Movement of frozen production remains slow due to limited inventories. Frozen tom breast meat remains unchanged.

Prices are expected to remain steady to firm through the spring, underpinned by the onset of grilling season and a pickup in foodservice and QSR promotional activity. With cold storage supplies running lean, any surge in demand could quickly tighten the market further.

Prices are expected to hold steady through the back half of April, in line with typical seasonal patterns. A pickup in export demand should lend underlying support, while supplies remain sufficient to meet overall needs.

Prices are expected to remain supported in the coming weeks, consistent with seasonal trends. Demand is forecast to be robust across both domestic marketing channels and Asian export markets, providing firm underlying support.

Prices are expected to find support in the coming weeks, buoyed by a pickup in export interest and the onset of grilling season.

Prices are expected to find a more balanced footing in the coming weeks, following normal seasonal trends. While pork production remains questionable, demand should remain modest enough to keep the market in equilibrium

Prices continue to rise gradually as supply tightens. Pricing is expected to trend higher as MMPA-related impacts remain uncertain.

The white shrimp market remains generally stable. Lower inbound pricing from India continues to offset higher-cost product from Central America. Outlook suggests pricing should hold at current levels or trend modestly lower, with elevated fuel costs for sea freight remaining the primary constraint to further cost reduction.

The black tiger shrimp market is stable overall, with some lower pricing observed on headless shell-on product and smaller size ranges. Pricing is expected to remain steady to slightly softer, as fuel costs for ocean freight continue to limit broader declines.

Prices are firm to slightly higher as the market moves into the Lenten period. Larger sizes (U10–U8) remain very tight to unavailable due to MMPA-related restrictions impacting key harvest areas.

The market has stabilized, with some lower-priced offers emerging on larger sizes. High-volume sizes (5–8 oz) remain stable but are showing upward pressure as supply tightens.

Pricing has stabilized at historically high levels. Supplies remain tight across all sizes, and prices are expected to remain elevated in the near term.

Live lobster prices have stabilized at high levels, with tight availability across all sizes. Prices are expected to continue inching higher through Mother’s Day.

Pricing remains stable for now, supported by limited raw material availability despite ample frozen tail inventories. Prices are expected to trend higher through Mother’s Day.

The market remains extremely tight as the new season begins. Forecasts continue to support higher pricing, with product availability very limited—particularly in 5–8 oz and 4-up sizes.

Prices have leveled off amid the continued lack of Russian-origin product. Some size categories remain scarce, though product is generally available.

Prices remain stable at current levels. Several producing countries are experiencing quality and consistency challenges, influencing buying behavior.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

Pricing has leveled off and remains stable. Market indicators suggest potential downward pressure beginning in early June.

The market has stabilized at current rates, with expectations for pricing to soften in early June.

Fresh salmon pricing has leveled off, with early June expected to bring some price relief.

Asian supply remains stable, while South and Central American supply continues to be constrained and is expected to remain challenged through spring 2026.

The market remains stable, with no anticipated changes to pricing or supply outlook.

Pricing remains firm overall, though select size categories have seen softer demand. Lower quotas year-over-year suggest any near-term price relief may be temporary.

Prices continue to rise due to tight global availability. Key sizes and cuts are under allocation, with no meaningful relief expected until late Q2.

Supply has tightened as buyers substitute away from higher-priced Atlantic cod. While recovery is underway, key sizes remain limited.

The market remains stable, with no changes expected to pricing or supply conditions.

The season is fully underway, with record-high pricing currently in the market. Elevated fuel costs remain the primary driver of price increases.

Milk production remains impressive, and is still trending steady to higher across the country as we approach peak spring flush season. US milk production report showed a massive 2.9% increase in February vs. the prior year and another 15k head added to domestic dairy herds from last month. This is the largest US herd since 1993 and is keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, stronger YOY milk fat tests have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market. Overall supplies remain comfortable, while increased demand has kept them from becoming burdensome.

The butter market is starting to consolidate near its recent lows. Impressive milk output so far this year has helped keep butter churns full and running hard. This has been magnified by the stronger butterfat component within the milk, pushing even more cream onto the market. The USDA confirmed the elevated production levels this past week as updated data showed February butter output up 9.1% from the prior year and setting a new record for the month. Recent export data did show the US exported the most butter in the month of January since 1994, but forward expectations don’t appear as optimistic. Export demand will likely face further headwinds given the recent run up in US values, elevated freight costs, stronger US dollar and growing inflation risk from the US – Iran war. However, the cheaper prices earlier this year did support better domestic and global demand, keeping US inventories limited.

The cheese markets are trading back at the lower end of their recent range. Impressive milk output has helped keep cheese vats full and running hard. This was confirmed by the USDA this past week as updated production data showed February cheese output up 3.9% from the prior year and setting a new record for the month. American and Cheddar output was slightly lower at +1.9% and +2.3% respectively. Stronger dairy margins of late should continue to limit dairy cow slaughter and keep plenty of milk coming to market as we move into the spring flush season. Cold storage figures from the USDA showed that February stocks of all cheese, and American styles, have struggled in the early seasonal build period and are both the smallest for the month since 2020. Additional cost pressure on consumers should be a headwind to rallies.

The shell egg markets have pushed to fresh multi-year lows, but are starting to stabilize as increased restocking demand is observed. Overall flocks are still more than adequate as updated monthly flock data showed the US table egg laying flock as of March 1st at 315.8 million head, up 5.8 million from last month (counter seasonal) and +8.2% YOY. Seasonality would suggest softer prices into the summer months, but with prices already historically soft, further downside appears limited. Updated cage free layers for March showed little movement as flocks were only 300k head lower than the prior month and still at record highs.

Soybean oil futures are pushing back towards their contract highs set earlier this month, finding support from the energy markets and the ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East. Without an end to the war, there remains plenty of risk in the market, limiting downside nearby. Also, the finalized 2026/2027 biofuel policy is driving better vegoil demand and limiting downside. Domestic spot crude and refined soybean oil basis offers remained firm last week while South American levels are now up significantly from their recent lows.

Canola futures are chopping sideways this week as it continues to mirror the movement in the soybean / soybean oil markets. Canadian weather forecasts continue to show good moisture in the southern prairies ahead of planting. RBD canola oil basis offers remained firm through Q3.

Palm oil futures moved lower this week. Indonesia issued a decree setting a timeline to raise its palm-based biodiesel mandate to B50 starting July 1, with all biodiesel users required to switch to B50 by 2028 and allocations to be detailed later in 2026. March Malaysian palm oil stocks top forecasts at 2.267 MMT — the highest March level in seven years — despite a sharp 437,000-tonne monthly draw, inventories are still running nearly 45% above year-ago levels.

Prices remain elevated; Mexican jumbo and extra-large sizes are limited. The domestic asparagus season is starting up; supplies will increase by mid-May.

Mexico

• Markon First Crop (MFC) Asparagus is available
• Jumbo and extra-large sizes are forecast to remain extremely limited until mid-May
• The crop’s size profile continues to skew toward standard and large spears
• Light production has started in Baja, Mexico, and will increase over the next few weeks; harvests in Central Mexico will follow by mid-May
• New crop Baja quality is good: growers report firm spears and minimal seeding
• Expect high prices until mid-May

Peru

• Although supplies are currently average, reduced Mexican volume is driving up demand in all regions
• Quality ranges from average to good:
  • Prior high heat impacted quality in some regions
  • Feathered tips, dehydration, and flabby spears have been reported
• Pricing will remain elevated until volume increases in Mexico and the U.S.

California/Michigan/Washington

• Domestic asparagus production is increasing and beginning to provide modest market relief
• California harvests are just getting underway, but will reach marketable volume by mid-May
• Washington production has started; yields will continue to build over the next few weeks
• Cool weather has delayed the Michigan season; full production is anticipated by the second week of May
• Pricing remains firm as early domestic supplies work to fill a short Mexican market
• Expect more consistent domestic supplies on both coasts by mid-May, barring any weather disruptions

Mexican supplies are tightening in anticipation of strong demand for the Cinco de Mayo holiday. The California season has ramped up; pricing is comparable to markets out of Mexico.

Mexico

• The size curve is beginning to change; fewer small sizes are available
• Quality is good; checkerboarding (uneven ripening within a case) has been reported
• Expect slightly elevated markets heading into the Cinco De Mayo holiday

California

• Harvesting has increased
• Stocks are dominated by medium sizes (48- through 60-count fruit)
• Quality is good; firm fruit has been reported even when ripe
• Expect slightly elevated prices heading into the Cinco De Mayo holiday

Colombia

• Imports will ship into the East Coast through May; these supplies only account for 5% of U.S. demand
• Expect decreasing supplies over the next two weeks as growers transition to new crop fruit
• The crop is currently dominated by small sizes (60- to 84-count fruit)
• Quality is comparable to that in Mexico; texture is creamy and oil content is high

Prices are slowly climbing due to tighter supplies out of Mexico. MFC and Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Brussels Sprouts are available.

• Markets continue to increase as supply tightens out of Mexico, resulting in lower yields

• • Recent high heat and rains have elevated pest presence and affected quality
  • Overall Mexican supplies are diminishing as weather pressures reduce available volume
• Size is becoming less uniform as some fields mature under heat stress, requiring closer grade and pack inspections
• Border crossings out of Mexico remain inconsistent, with sporadic delays adding pressure to availability and logistics
• Quality is good; discoloration and insect damage have been reported in some lots
• California’s Central Coast season will begin in mid-July

• Expect markets to incrementally climb until the Salinas season begins in

Although California and Texas are increasing production, some chile varieties remain snug. MFC Chile Peppers are limited; packer label is being substituted as needed.

Mexico

• Pest and disease pressure reduced yields early in the season
• Reduced plantings have kept prices elevated
• Pasilla quality problems have tightened this variety the most
• Demand is strong within Mexico, reducing availability to the US and Canadian markets

United States

• Texas production is fully underway
• California harvests are increasing, easing prices for Jalapeno and Anaheim peppers
• The Georgia season is expected to begin in two to three weeks
• Prices will remain elevated until domestic production ramps up

The 165- through 200-count lemon market remains elevated, primarily driven by lower available volumes and persistent strong demand. This tightness in supply will persist through June. In July, offshore and Mexican lemons are expected to supplement domestic supply, helping stabilize the market and provide some price relief.

Domestic

• MFC and Essentials (ESS) Lemons are available  
• Districts One and Two (the San Joaquin Valley and Southern California) are currently in production

• • D1 has moved past its peak and is expected to finish in late April
  • D2 production is in full swing and producing a majority of the industries small-size fruit
• 165- and 200-count sizes are limited; size is dominated by 95- through 140-count lemons
• The offshore season is expected to start in late June to early July
• Expect elevated markets and tight supplies through June

Mexican

• Mexican shipments have started in a limited manner and will run through late November
• The size profile will be 165- through 235-count fruit but larger sizes will be available
• Expect pricing to be comparable to domestic fruit until volume rises over the next four weeks

Offshore

• Offshore fruit will begin shipping in late June and run through early December
• The size profile will be dominated by large lemons (95- through 140-count fruit) but smaller sizes will be available as well
• Expect higher pricing compared to domestic and Mexican fruit due to better quality

The storage season for MFC Onions is ending in Oregon, Idaho, and Washington. Fresh-run MFC Onions are available in Texas and Southern California. Prices are rising in all regions.

Pacific Northwest

• The Idaho and Oregon storage seasons are ending this week
• Limited quantities of Washington red and yellow onions will continue shipping into May
• Growers have started transferring white onions from California to fill orders as needed
• Quality is fair to good
• Expect pricing to rise over the next one to two weeks

Mexico (into South Texas)

• Crossings are declining as the domestic fresh onion seasons begin
• Growers report a wide range of quality; green cast, soft texture, mechanical damage, and thin skins are to be expected with fresh-run onions
• Expect higher prices over the next one to two weeks

Texas

• Fresh-run yellow, red, and white onions are available
• The season is expected to run through mid- to late May, depending on weather
• Rain limited harvests last week; weather has improved and production has resumed
• Quality is good; fresh-run onions will have thinner skins, softer texture, and higher moisture content compared to storage crop onions
• Markon recommends ordering for quick turns
• Expect prices to rise over the next one to two weeks

California

• Harvests in the Southern California desert region have begun in a limited manner
• Volume will increase over the next week
• Quality is good; fresh-run onions will exhibit higher moisture content, thinner skins, and overall shorter shelf life
• Markon recommends ordering for quick turns
• Current supplies are dominated by medium and jumbo sizes; larger colossal and super colossal sizes are limited but will increase as the season progresses
• Northern California harvests are expected to begin the last week of May
• Expect prices to rise over the next one to two weeks

Georgia

• Vidalia sweet onions are available; the season will run through early September
• Red and yellow onions will begin shipping in a limited manner next week
• Medium and jumbo sizes will be most plentiful
• Quality ranges from good to excellent
• Initial FOB pricing is expected to be comparable to California and Texas fresh run

California Valencia – Re-Greening (Gassing)

• By law, oranges must be fully mature when harvested in the United States, but some may exhibit yellow-green skins
  • Three levels of maturity must be met before harvesting
    • Juice content
    • Brix percentage (sugars)
    • Citric acid levels
• When necessary, ethylene gas is applied to oranges to change the rind color from yellow or green to orange
  • The process of applying ethylene gas is known as gassing, or curing
  • Ethylene gas only helps with the outside skin color, it does not change any other characteristics of the orange
• The length of the re-greening process depends on skin color upon harvest
• Currently, California Navel oranges are being re-greened 48 to 72 hours

MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available in Idaho and North Dakota. Yellow potato prices are rising; supplies are limited. Red potato markets are mainly steady, with slight increases for B-size stocks. Expect active markets through May due to harvesting transitions and high demand.

Idaho

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available
• Red storage supplies are ample, but yellow stocks are limited
• Overall quality is very good
  • Reds are exhibiting excellent skin color
  • Yellow potatoes may possess late-season storage issues (pressure bruising and lenticels)
• Yellow prices are higher due to strong demand

North Dakota

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available
• The season is winding down; supplies are expected to be depleted next week
• Quality remains very good; reds are exhibiting dark color and minimal blemishes
• Yellow potato prices continue to climb, while reds remain steady

Colorado

• Large size A reds and yellows are abundant; B and C sizes are tight due to strong demand
• Quality is very good; red potato color is light pink
• Markets are up for red and yellow B and C sizes

Washington

• Red and yellow yields are average
• Late-season storage quality is fair, with reports of pressure bruising and lenticels
• Pricing is on the rise

Florida

• Supplies remain limited as the harvesting transition from Southern to Northern Florida is underway
• The Southern Florida season is expected to finish in mid-May
• Northern Florida production has started with low volume; quality is very good
• Pricing is elevated across all colors and sizes, but expected to stabilize as supplies increase

Upcoming regions

• The Arizona season will start next week
• California production will begin in mid-May
• Texas supplies will start shipping in late June

Expect higher West Coast prices. Harvesting transitions are occurring in multiple regions. The Mexican squash season is winding down early, while California production is just starting. East Coast growers will move from Florida to Georgia in early May, with some supply overlap. MFC Zucchini and Yellow Squash are available.

Southeast

• Growers are harvesting in South Georgia; quality is very good
• Florida production will end in the next 10 days; quality is good
• Expect low markets over the next few weeks

Mexico

• The Sonora season is winding down after April’s warm weather pushed crops forward
  • Zucchini production will run until May 10
  • Yellow squash harvesting will end for multiple growers on May 2
• Quality is average, especially in the yellow squash crop, due to mechanical damage

California

• The transition to the San Joaquin Valley will start May 2; expect low volume at first
• California’s Santa Maria coastal season will begin on May 18
• Expect snug supplies and rising prices for the first two weeks of May

Supplies are extremely limited due to prior rain in the Salinas/Watsonville growing regions and strong Mother’s Day demand. Market prices are elevated.

Salinas/Watsonville

• Quality continues to improve as fields recover from previous rain
• Size is medium (14 to 16 berries per 8/1-pound clamshell)
• Maintaining the cold chain will be vital for shelf-life; Markon recommends ordering for quick turns
• Expect high prices for the next 7-10 days

Santa Maria/Oxnard

• MFC Strawberries are available
• Overall quality is good; some bruising and white shoulders have been reported
• Size ranges from small-medium to medium (18 to 22 berries per 8/1-pound clamshell)
• Maintaining the cold chain will be vital for shelf-life; Markon recommends ordering for quick turns
• Markets will remain elevated for the next 7-10 days

Markets are climbing as weather-related disruptions in Mexico and Salinas tighten supplies and affect quality.

Mexico

• MFC Sugar Snap Peas are limited; packer label is being substituted
• Above-average heat and recent rainfall across Northern Mexico have reduced available yields
• Quality issues have increased: scarring and discoloration are being reported in most lots
• Supplies remain tight due to reduced harvestable volume and prevalent defects
• Expect higher pricing and limited supplies over the next three weeks

Salinas/Santa Maria

• Ongoing rain events have slowed harvesting throughout the Salinas Valley
• Excess moisture has contributed to increased quality challenges, including scarring and other cosmetic issues
• Demand is exceeding available volume, supporting higher markets
• Expect elevated pricing and quality variability as weather impacts work through the supply chain

Round tomato supplies remain limited out of Mexico. The Central Florida season is getting underway; supplies will increase this week.

Rounds

• Florida
  • The Central Florida season has started
  • Production is expected to increase starting this week
  • The South Florida season is winding down
  • Quality is good
  • Markets will ease over the next few weeks
• Mexico
  • Supplies remain extremely tight due to recent poor weather conditions and less acreage planted this season
  • Growers in the Jalisco region of Southern Mexico will begin harvesting this weekend
  • Prices are extremely elevated this week

Romas

• Florida
  • Volume is low as the South Florida season winds down
  • The Central Florida season is underway; expect increased yields in May
  • Quality is good
  • Expect lower markets in the coming weeks
• Mexico
  • Volume into the U.S. is low
  • Demand has increased as many buyers are substituting for round varieties; recent quality has been fair
  • Growers in the Jalisco region of Southern Mexico have begun limited production; volume will increase over the next few weeks
  • The Baja season is getting underway
  • Recent quality has been fair, but improvement is expected from the new regions
  • Prices are higher due to strong demand

Grape and Cherry

• Florida
  • Supplies are increasing
  • Quality is good
  • Markets are starting to ease and will fall further in May
• Mexico
  • Baja supplies are increasing
  • Sonora production is expected to start in the next few weeks
  • Quality is average
  • Expect steady pricing over the next two weeks