Market Outlook

Prices will remain balanced through March, respecting the seasonal price trend as demand for ribeyes typically doesn’t accelerate until later in April. Supplies remain tight enough to keep prices supported at current levels.

Prices are expected to remain strong heading into spring, supported by typical seasonal trends. With tight supplies and robust retail demand, buyers will likely face increased competition and higher costs to secure inventory.

Prices are anticipated to remain stable in the coming weeks, following seasonal trends. Moderating foodservice demand will help offset the supply constraints from reduced slaughter rates.

Prices are expected to remain under pressure throughout March, straying from the typical seasonal stability. Weak demand across various buying channels has provided little support; however, buyers shifting away from roasting meats may begin turning to Tri-Tips as an alternative.

While demand for Top Butts typically eases as spring nears, prices are expected to remain firm. Robust retail demand and constrained supply will provide ongoing price support in the weeks ahead.

Briskets will reflect a neutral tone heading into spring. With St. Patrick’s day demand in the rearview, prices are expected to fall back in line with the normal seasonal trend. Increased promotions and LTO’s from foodservice and QSR sectors will provide some ongoing price support.

Prices are expected to remain stable in the coming weeks as seasonal demand picks up with the approach of spring. Continued strong purchasing from key foodservice sectors will put pressure on available inventories, helping to support prices during this time.

March prices are expected to remain steady, following typical seasonal trends. While domestic demand remains subdued as grilling season hasn’t fully kicked off, strong export activity, driven by increased purchases ahead of the April 2nd tariffs, has helped sustain price stability.

Round prices are expected to stay strong throughout March, in line with seasonal trends, as processors compete for limited raw materials. This upward momentum is driven by robust domestic demand, especially from the fast-casual sector, which will continue to put pressure on available supply.

Prices are expected to shift toward a more balanced tone by late March, softening the usual seasonal strength. Retail demand for ground beef products is likely to stay subdued until grilling season picks up in early spring.

Ground beef prices are expected to remain steady in the coming weeks, offsetting the usual seasonal strength, as retail demand stays sluggish ahead of grilling season.

3lb. and smaller WOGs are in high demand and are being cleared quickly. Sellers, particularly those connected to retail and cutting channels, are finding it challenging to meet the current demand. The limited availability that does emerge is sold at a modest premium with success. 3lb. and smaller birds are well-positioned and reflect a balanced market tone overall.

Bone-in breasts and front halves are experiencing strong buyer interest from those in the deboning sector. Supplies are barely sufficient across most regions, with sale prices coming in at a premium relative to our quotations. The same trend is seen with all sizes of boneless breasts. Current market activity reveals a wide range of negotiations and completed trades, and we consider this segment to be stable. Late-morning feedback on tenders indicates a more positive market outlook compared to the previous day. Some buyers have noted that the growing price gap between boneless breasts and tenders has encouraged them to opt for the more affordable tender option, even if it requires paying slightly above market prices.

Wings are holding steady at current prices, with moderate demand. However, in some areas, there is enough supply, causing a few sellers to be more willing to negotiate than others.

Looking at the back half of the bird, demand for legs and thighs remains steady, which is supporting positive seller sentiment. While there wasn’t much market activity today, both product lines are being held at strong prices. Leg quarters and drumsticks are stable, while prices for leg and thigh meat continue to trend slightly higher. Supplies are generally adequate, though in some cases, they fall short of current demand.

Offerings of frozen whole turkeys with significant premiums are available for delivery from prompt to late spring. While sellers remain firm on their asking prices, some buyers consider the current prices to be high for this time of year and are hesitant to pay these levels. Unless further market developments provide new insights, current quotations will remain in place. Supplies of both consumer and institutional-sized breasts are tight, though recent sales continue to support market values.

Prices for both fresh and frozen breast meat continue to rise, with offerings becoming increasingly limited as more flocks are affected by disease. Many buyers are securing whatever inventory they can find in anticipation of the upcoming deli season, driving premium prices. The same trend is observed with tenders. Spot sales of thigh meat are slow to emerge, with a few premium bids reported, but some buyers are beginning to show price sensitivity. Unless additional data emerges, the market will remain stable at its current listed quotations.

Prices are expected to stabilize heading into spring, realigning with typical seasonal price trends. Improved nearby availability and projected production increases have encouraged sellers to price products aggressively, which may incentivize buyers to build cold storage inventories.

Over the next few weeks, prices are likely to stay firm as seasonal trends offer additional support. The continued strength of pork loin exports further bolsters this stability.

Prices are expected to strengthen ahead of the typical mid-April seasonal uptrend. Cold storage supplies of ribs remain extremely tight, and as demand builds for the spring season, higher prices will be necessary to balance supply with demand.

Prices will remain steady in the coming weeks, aligning with the typical seasonal trend for this time of year. Ample bone-in supplies continue to exert downward pressure on prices, while sustained export demand from South Korea helps support boneless butt values.

Prices are expected to hold steady throughout the month, in line with the typical seasonal pattern for March. Export demand remains strong, with Mexico continuing to purchase bone-in ham ahead of the 25% tariff reinstatement on April 2. Meanwhile, domestic demand remains subdued, as deli traffic stays light and Easter is still over a month away.

The market for blue swimming crab remains unchanged. Supplies are adequate amid a fair to moderate demand. The pricing and availability of small-sized crab meat continues to vary significantly between sellers, depending on individual inventory positions.

The shrimp market shows strong fundamentals, despite some slight downward pressure on Latin American RHSO values. While these segments are experiencing mild softness, current listings remain stable. The gap between origin costs and US spot market prices continues to affect trading patterns, with ongoing logistical challenges from Ecuador, although the impact differs by supplier. Shrimp values from Asia remain stable at previous levels.

Values increased across categories due to limited availability and steady demand. The value-added segment also strengthened, driven by tight replacement conditions.

Prices continue to increase, reportedly due to limited landings.

While specific data on the availability of different sizes is limited, the strong demand for prime-sized (5-9 oz) warm water lobster tails suggests a stable supply in this category. However, the price declines in larger sizes (10 oz and above) may indicate an oversupply or reduced demand for these sizes. It’s important to note that these observations are based on recent reports, and market conditions can change. Pricing is up for smaller sizes and stable for larger sizes.

The wholesale frozen market for Cold Water lobster tails has experienced varied pricing trends recently, influenced by size and market dynamics. Smaller size tails pricing is stable at the moment, where as pricing on the larger size tails has had a slight decline.

The wholesale frozen lobster meat market has experienced notable price increases in early 2025, primarily due to supply constraints. Prices moved higher as supply constraints remained bullish.
This upward trend continued into late January, with prices increasing further due to a lack of replacement inventory until May, raising concerns about ongoing supply risks.
Pricing Trends: Prices Increasing

The wholesale frozen market for Canadian snow crab has experienced significant price increases recently, primarily due to supply shortages and new tariff implementations. Prices for snow crab remain high, driven by limited inventory and strong demand from premium buyers. The market is experiencing very limited inventory, particularly for 5-8 oz. sizes, with reports indicating that supplies are nearly depleted. Pricing Trend: Increasing

The wholesale frozen market for Ahi (yellowfin) tuna has experienced notable fluctuations in pricing and availability, influenced by various factors, including supply constraints and potential tariff implications. Recent discussions indicate that hundreds of U.S. seafood products, including tuna, are on Canada’s list for potential retaliatory tariffs. Pricing Trend: Stable at the moment

The Pangasius market has experienced stable to increasing prices due to supply constraints and environmental factors. Potential tariff changes add uncertainty to future pricing and availability. Short Term: Price steady

The wholesale frozen market for Keta salmon has experienced pricing fluctuations due to changes in roe prices and environmental factors. Availability varies by size, with whole fish typically ranging from 5 to 8 pounds. Short Term: Price steady

The wholesale frozen market for Chilean salmon has experienced notable fluctuations in availability and pricing, influenced by supply constraints and shifting demand dynamics.
The supply of frozen Chilean salmon fillets has been under pressure, with distributors noting that inventories are fully adequate amidst fair demand. In recent months, prices for frozen Chilean salmon fillets have increased. Distributors reported that prices have risen and there are Potential Impact of U.S. Tariffs: While Chile may benefit from increased demand as other suppliers face tariffs, the overall market dynamics could lead to increased competition and pressure on producer prices in other regions.

The Norwegian salmon wholesale market is characterized by stable pricing, consistent availability, and steady demand. Short Term: Price Steady

Wholesale prices for tilapia fillets have risen notably. Chinese tilapia fillets, for instance, have increased from $2.20 per pound last year to over $3.00 per pound currently. Recent tariff escalations have significantly impacted the tilapia market. As of February 2025, Chinese tilapia exports to the U.S. are subject to a 35% tariff, up from the previous 25%.
Short term: Pricing Steady

With lower production during the holidays and many fish in ponds being smaller, sizes aren’t as prevalent as we’d like, especially for whole fish. Even with production is ramping up after the holidays, we don’t anticipate any significant price changes. We are expecting seasonal weather, which may occasionally impact production. Some inventory is being sold at lower costs going into the new year, but this has slowed down recently. Overall, the market remains steady.

With 3 months until new season opens, boats are taking a few opportunities to fish in sections known as “Closed Area’s”; area’s that the government opens up for a limited time to gauge the growth of scallops and helping to determine when they can be reopened again. The catch has been mostly 20/30’s and very good quality. Short term: Pricing remains stable.

Weekly milk production reports are seasonally increasing across the majority of the country as we approach spring flush. California continues to trend in the right direction amid slowing HPAI outbreaks as only a few new cases were reported last week. More normalized milk levels, larger herd sizes than last year and strong milk components are helping keep adequate supply coming to market. Nearby demand has stabilized after a strong start to the year, helping push spot offers below class. On the cream side, record milk fat tests have continued to bring an abundance of cream to the market as supplies are readily available and have pushed multiples to historic lows.

Prices are stabilizing near their recent lows after hitting their lowest levels since December of 2021 the prior week. Solid production schedules and cheap cream availability continue to limit just how expensive butter needs to be at this time of year. The most recent cold storage report from the USDA showed that butter is starting its seasonal build in supplies, with January inventories increasing 26% from December and coming in 9.2% higher than last year. US demand continues to grow at a rapid pace, and in 2024 exceeded the previous record by 6%. However, supplies remain very comfortable as end users are well covered and churns continue to run at record levels. Export interest has picked up into Q1, but with Canada being the largest buyer, and tariff uncertainty, further growth may be limited.

The market saw further selling pressure this past week, pushing cheese values to their lowest levels in almost a year. This has created some renewed order interest, but the market remains sensitive to the potential tariff and trade war risks. Despite tighter supplies of cheese in cold storage this year vs. last, the ongoing trade wars with our largest dairy export destinations (Mexico, Canada and China) have limited upside in the US market. Of all cheese exports in 2024, Mexico accounted for 38% of those sales. With overall cheddar demand still only steady at best, this should push more product onto the market into Q1 along with the new plant capacity coming online. The market is still in transition as increased production is starting to come online and supplies look to recover from tight levels.

The shell egg market is setting back sharply from its recent record high prices. A slower tone to HPAI outbreaks across the country, and reduced order interest from both retail and foodservice channels are helping supplies recover from extremely tight levels. The USDA released updated flock sizes, with laying hen totals as of February 1st coming in at 291.5 million. This is the smallest US flock since the HPAI outbreaks of 2015 and is likely still shrinking. February saw another 11.2 million layers removed from production as a result of bird flu, further limiting this amount of shell eggs coming to market. Longer term, producer margins are still solid due to the lower YOY feed costs and record high shell egg values, and should drive an expansion of chicks hatched into 2025. Both cage free and conventional shell egg prices were sharply lower this past week.

After pushing to new nearby lows last week, the market is attempting to stabilize. The market remains near the lower end of its 2025 range, but selling interest is slowing as the market awaits fresh inputs on renewable diesel mandates and potential changes in the tariff and retaliatory tariff structures. There is still plenty of risk that the Trump administration will reduce renewable fuels mandates, but there are other current guidance suggests more nearby use of soybean oil. Better weather down in S. America is starting to generate some competition out into Q2, helping push the market back towards the lower end of the recent range.

Canola seed futures are consolidating off the contract lows set last week. Statistics Canada estimated 2025 Canadian canola planted acreage at 21.646 million acres, slightly higher than the average trade estimate but down from 22.011 million last year. China is likely to face a supply shortage of rapeseed meal by the third quarter of this year as Beijing’s tariffs on shipments from top exporter Canada disrupt trade and as alternative sources are unlikely to make up the deficit. RBD canola oil basis offers were steady in limited trade with all eyes on whether or not the US implements tariffs on Canada in early April.

Palm oil futures are slightly lower this week despite the heavier losses in the soybean oil and canola markets. Prices have remained mostly rangebound since February and are currently near the bottom of that recent range. Lower production continues to prop the market up though the seasonal turns towards higher production during the month of April. Increased competition from soy oil and canola oil are limiting export demand for palm.

Prices are starting to rise. Mexico’s Caborca season is winding down; cool weather is slowing growth. The Peruvian season has ended. Markon First Crop (MFC) Asparagus is available.

Mexico

• Quality ranges from good to very good
• Production is past its peak in Caborca, Mexico; harvesting will transition west towards the Baja peninsula, as a bridge between the Caborca and Central Mexico season in early June
• All sizes are readily available with minimal price spreads between small and large sizes, but markets are inching higher across the board
• Expect prices to climb, especially as strong demand ramps up for the Easter holiday in April

Peru

• Supplies are no longer shipping into Florida; hot weather during the Peruvian summer combined with competitive Mexican markets have forced growers to cease production at this time of year
• Should tariffs add costs to Mexican supplies, Peru may act as a small relief valve, but this region will not be able to support all national demand and provide only minimal relief until at least early May

Industry supplies remain adequate. Mexican growers have reduced pricing for next week’s loading, as the 25% tariff has been removed.

Mexico

• Large sizes (32- to 48-count fruit) remain tight, as Mexican growers continue to slow harvesting, driving up demand
• Size and grade substitutions may be requested to fill orders
• Quality is good; checkerboarding (uneven ripening within a case) has been reported
• Expect elevated markets and tight supplies for the next three weeks

California

• Expect limited harvesting through next week due to rain
• Mexican-grown fruit may need to be substituted to fill orders
• Supplies are dominated by medium sizes (48- through 60-count fruit)
• Elevated markets and tight supplies are forecast through next week

Colombia

• Imports will ship into the East Coast through May; these supplies only account for 5% of U.S. demand
• The crop is currently dominated by small sizes (60- to 84-count fruit)
• Quality is comparable to that in Mexico; texture is creamy and oil content is high

Green bell pepper supplies are tightening this week; markets are increasing. The Mexican red bell pepper season is at its peak; however, volume into Nogales, Arizona is low due to reduced border crossings.

Green Bells

• MFC and Markon Essentials (ESS) Green Bell Peppers are available
• Florida’s production is adequate; however, cooler weather (low 70s) will slow growth
  • All sizes are available
  • Quality is good
• Mexican stocks are moderate despite ideal growing conditions
  • Some growers opted to keep fruit nationally due to depressed markets and early week tariff implications
  • Stocks (into Nogales) are tight today
• Expect higher prices over the next two weeks

Red Bells

• MFC and ESS Red Bell Peppers are available
• Yields are ample in Western Mexico due to favorable weather
  • Quality is very good; all sizes are available
  • Growers halted some shipments to the borders due to tariff implications
  • Expect tight supplies into Nogales this weekend
• Volume is low out of Florida this week
• Canadian greenhouses will start shipping limited supplies at the end of March
• Expect higher prices this week

Markets are rising as demand strengthens and supplies tighten. ESS Cauliflower is available; packer label is being substituted as necessary.

• Production is winding down in the California/Arizona desert region
  • Harvesting will begin in Salinas, California in late March/early April
  • Minimal volume is shipping from Santa Maria, California
• Quality is fairly good, but this week’s rain is expected to cause discoloration/black spotting, bruising, and reduced shelf-life; suppliers are packing ahead to mitigate these issues
• Pricing will continue to climb through March, as yields in the desert diminish and demand increases

Chile pepper markets remain volatile as tariff uncertainties have slowed U.S. crossings. Growers held product in Mexico earlier this week due to stronger domestic demand but are now resuming shipments into the United States.

• Volume is gradually recovering as border crossings increase in South Texas, Nogales, Arizona, and Otay Mesa, California
• Suppliers are well-positioned to fulfill orders as shipments continue to increase
• The spring transition could cause supply gaps, as reduced field maintenance from depressed markets has impacted yields
• Expect prices to remain elevated through the end of next week

Expect steady markets and ample supplies through the month of April.

Oranges

• MFC and ESS Navel Oranges are available
• Growers are currently shipping out of Arizona, California, Florida, and Mexico
• Supplies are dominated by small sizes (113- through 138-count fruit) but slowly shifting to larger sizes (72- through 88-count fruit)
• Quality is excellent

Lemons

• MFC and ESS Lemons are available  
• Supplies are dominated by small sizes (140- through 165-count fruit)
• Markets for 95- through 115-count supplies have inched down
• Quality is excellent

Green leaf, iceberg, and romaine prices are climbing amid rising demand, tightening supplies, and rain events in the Arizona/California desert this week.

• MFC Premium Green Leaf, Iceberg, and Romaine are available  
• Rain is forecast to begin this evening, totaling 0.25” or less in the Arizona/California desert regions; an additional storm with rainfall of 0.50” or more is forecast for Thursday
  • The rain events this week may curtail harvesting if field conditions are unsuitable for crews and machinery
  • Markon is working with grower-shippers to pack ahead as needed to ensure coverage
• Insect pressure continues to be a concern following February’s warm weather; increased presence is expected through the duration of the Yuma season
• The Arizona/California desert season is winding down; some growers will finish in late March with others concluding by early to mid-April
• A handful of growers will begin harvesting in Huron and Oxnard, California by mid- to late March
• The Salinas season will begin in early to mid-April

MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available in Idaho and North Dakota. Some regions are wrapping up production; harvesting transitions to new crop fields in Arizona, California, and Northern Florida are coming up in May.

Idaho

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes will ship through July; volume is adequate 
• Red and yellow quality is very good; No. 2 grade supplies are limited
• Demand is steady
• Supplies are adequate; all sizes are being shipped
• Expect steady prices

North Dakota

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes will ship through May
• Quality is good reducing the availability of No. 2 grade reds and yellows
• Sluggish retail demand for A size reds and yellows is tightening supplies on the byproduct B and C sizes
• Pricing is holding steady due to adequate mixer volume

Washington

• Red and yellow potatoes will be available through May
• Quality is good
• Size A stocks are extremely tight Size B supplies and creamers are adequate
• Markets are holding steady

Colorado

• Red and yellow potatoes will be available through April
• Quality is good
• Mixer volume is sufficient for all sizes
• Prices remain steady

Florida

• Southern and Central Florida red and yellow potatoes will be available into April
• Northern Florida will start production in mid- to late April and run through June
• All sizes are adequate;
  • Quality is very good
  • No. 2 grade stocks are limited
• Markets are holding steady

Squash markets are rising this week due to harvesting transitions in Mexico and Florida; yellow squash is especially snug. MFC Zucchini and Yellow Squash are available.

• Mexico’s production has slowed due to growers moving away from older fields in Sinaloa
  • Yellow squash volume is low this week
  • Quality is mixed
  • New fields in the state of Sonora will harvested later this week
• Florida yellow squash is limited due to fewer plantings and field transitions
  • Zucchini supplies are adequate but starting to decrease
  • Overall quality is good
  • Yields will be snug for two weeks until new crop production starts
• Expect prices to increase over the next two weeks

Rain is forecast for Santa Maria and Oxnard, California this Wednesday, March 12 through Thursday, April 14.

Santa Maria

• MFC Strawberries are available; packer label may be substituted as needed
• Expect harvesting cancelations on Wednesday, March 12 and Thursday, March 13 due to rain
• Supplies will be limited for the rest of the week
• Quality is fair: pin rot and bruising are predicted
• Maintaining the cold chain will be vital for shelf-life; Markon recommends ordering for quick turns

Oxnard

• MFC Strawberries are available; packer label may be substituted as needed
• Expect harvesting cancelations on Wednesday, March 12 and Thursday, March 13 due to rain
• Supplies will be limited through this week
• Quality is fair: pin rot and bruising are issues
• Maintaining the cold chain will be vital for shelf-life; Markon recommends ordering for quick turns

Mexico (into South Texas)

• Peak season has passed; yields have started to drop
• Size currently ranges from 18-26 berries per 1-pound clamshell
• Quality is good; uneven ripening and light bruising have been reported
• The season will end on approximately March 15

Florida

• MFC Strawberries are available
• Supplies have increased; the season will run through mid-April
• Size currently ranges from 15-22 berries per 1-pound clamshell
• Quality is improving with ideal weather
• Demand has fallen due to peak season