Market Outlook

Prices will shift to a softer tone in coming weeks, even though seasonal trends call for a more firm tone going into May. Retail demand for Ribeyes has softened, which, along with modest Foodservice demand, will keep prices on the defensive.

Prices will continue to show a strong tone in coming weeks, falling in line with seasonal price trends. Strips appear to be the middle meat of choice at Retail, which will keep demand and prices well supported.

Prices will trade with a steady tone in coming weeks, respecting seasonal price trends. Tenderloin demand has moderated somewhat in recent weeks, however buyers will be willing to step back in at any price set backs.

Prices will continue to range trade in coming weeks, defying the seasonal trend for values to gradually increase. Grilling demand will be a bit slower to develop this year, keeping prices more restrained.

Prices will trade steady in coming weeks, even though the seasonal trend is for values to soften going into May. Retail buyers have a preference for value items outside of the ground beef complex, which will keep Top Butts in higher demand.

Prices will shift to a softer tone going into May, somewhat contrary to the seasonal trend for values to strengthen this time of the year. Retail demand ahead of the upcoming grilling season will be slow to develop for Briskets, keeping prices subdued in the near term.

Prices will maintain a neutral tone over the next few weeks, respecting seasonal price trends. Foodservice demand for Flap Meat will be uneven at best, keeping prices restrained.

Prices will continue to take on a strong tone going into May. The normal seasonal trend for Skirt Meat prices to rally will be reinforced by strong demand from domestic marketing channels.

Prices will take on a softer tone over the next several weeks, falling in line with seasonal price trends. Round subprimals tend to seasonally soften going into the first half of May as availability increases.

Prices will take on a steady tone in coming weeks, largely following seasonal trends. Chuck supplies have improved as buyers shift preferences away from roasting meats to grilling items, putting more raw material in the hands of further processors for grinding purposes.

Prices will continue to show a balanced tone going into May. Featuring activity at Retail will be modest, putting more loads on the spot market available for purchase.

The tone surrounding WOGs is steady with paid prices crossing our desk within a narrow range of supportive price points. Asked prices are situated at, and slightly above, listed levels with supplies termed as adequate. Bone-in breasts and front halves wind down under an uneventful market backdrop. Those with retail exposure maintain an optimistic grasp on spot production.

Boneless breasts are rated as at least steady overall. Spot offerings are adequate in matching current needs. That being said, some players suggest that medium-sized offerings are slightly less visible than they have been at the week’s outset. Asked prices range from supportive to slightly higher values.

Wings of all sizes are well-established. As today’s tone suggests, some players attribute the current market scenario to a lack of underlying supply, while others are quick to suggest that demand is seasonally active here in late April. The tender complex falls short of current needs. Recent low-volume trade, in conjunction with premium-facing bids, give way to a full-steady rating.

Those in pursuit of legs, leg quarters, and drumsticks uncover their full needs without trouble at price points which lend support to today’s unchanged quotations. Thighs are well-cleared and deserve a steady rating. Players with export exposure south of the border take a more surefooted approach at the negotiation table. Leg meat is steady, while recent bookings of thigh meat paint a steady to full-steady picture to this line.

Recent notices of HPAI outbreaks have done little to move the needle on Turkey Markets. Despite the added risk, prices have remained largely flat, and given current market conditions, we see no reason for them to deviate from this trend. In the near term, prices are likely to stay flat or even dip slightly.

Breast markets will remain steady, and follow along the trajectory as the underlying Whole Bird Market.

Prices will continue to range trade over the next several weeks, falling in line with seasonal trends. Retail featuring of bacon will continue to moderate, keeping prices in check heading into May.

Prices will take on a balanced tone in coming weeks, respecting seasonal price trends for the back half of April. Demand for loins will begin to accelerate heading into May, however conversion capacity is strong and will ensure supplies are adequate to meet demand.

Prices will continue to show a strong tone in coming weeks, falling in line with seasonal price trends. Retail demand will remain strong and cold storage supplies are at the smallest level in over ten years, which will keep prices well supported.

Prices will remain supported going into May due to lower pork production, higher featuring of Boneless Butts by retailers, low cold storage supplies, and strong demand from export markets.

Prices will continue to trade steady in coming weeks, following seasonal trends. While demand from Mexico for bone-in hams will remain very strong, overall supplies of hams will be adequate to keep prices in balance.

As anticipated, there were no changes made to the assessment despite the ongoing, firm bias in the market for imported, farm-raised shrimp. While costs have risen, and reports suggest future arrivals have even higher costs basis attached, importers are cautious and largely holding the line on price given the current level of demand. White shrimp replacement pricing has strengthened sharply.

Reports suggest that it has become increasingly difficult to replace shrimp due to a supply balance overseas. Supplies of 4-6 and 6-8 shrimp have declined, along with 16/20 and smaller counts.

Fishing is almost done in Mexico, and demand remains lackluster. Larger sizes remain tight, and buyers hope that the last fishing trips produced these desired sizes.

The season is closed in Brazil, Honduras, and Nicaragua. The season in the Bahamas and Florida closed on March 31st. Inventory levels have been cleared by significant amounts due to customers shifting from Canadian to Spiny Lobster. Prices on Spiny Lobster still represent an excellent value to it’s northern cousins, but the differential is decreasing. Short Term: Steady Pricing, trending to firm.

The Canadian season had ended but catches are still taking place in Maine. Prices are only getting firmer on an already elevated Lobster tails and tail meat market. Short Term: Firm Prices

The Canadian season had ended but catches are still taking place in Maine. Prices are now rising on Lobster tails and tail meat. We have small quantities of different size tails and meat to last through the new season in May. Short Term: Firm to upward Pricing

5-8 snow crab out of the Gulf continues to adjust slightly higher; some still higher offers are also noted. Current pricing represents 2024 product. Gulf 8s have been reinstated. Gulf 10s are reported to be available in the market as well, however, pricing and availability is very spotty, and quotations have not yet been established. Harvesting in Newfoundland has started, but there has not been enough product in the U.S. market to establish market quotations yet. Short Term: Upward undertone in Price

Prices are stable on raw materials overseas. With slower demand and higher inventories for domestic Tuna, the market remains soft at current values. Prices are expected to start going up towards the summer months due to grilling season. Short Term: Steady Pricing

Limited raw materials and higher freight costs have caused prices to firm up. Some packers were given lower anti-dumping rates making them eligible to sell to the USA market. Because there are more packers, prices will be limited in how high they can go, but they are rising nonetheless. Short Term: Prices increasing

The Keta Salmon market has seen a slight increase due to the USA’s expanded ban on Russian seafood processed in other countries. Wild salmon season will begin to kick off in full swing in the next several weeks. Short Term: Price increasing

The fresh Chilean fillet market held unchanged. Supplies range adequate to fully adequate amid a fair demand. Offers continue to fluctuate among sellers. 2-3 sized fillets continue to have a higher supply compared to larger sizes. The market undertone is unsettled, with both higher and lower offers observed across the complex. Short Term: Firming Pricing

Norwegian Salmon market remains unchanged but the undertone is unsettled. Offers were reported to be light. Steady Pricing

The frozen tilapia market reports a full steady to firm undertone, experiencing continued supply challenges amid moderate demand on the market with premiums continuing to develop. Reports of higher replacement costs has added to the upwards pressure. Short Term: Prices increasing

The market for blue swimming crab meat continues full steady on colossal and jumbo lump as supplies of these sizes are adequate to barely adequate and higher offers are noted. Special and claw, on the other hand, are about steady to barely stead with a few lower offers noted. The remainder of the market is unchanged. Overall, mid-to-smaller sized crab offers range widely from seller to seller as individual inventory positions vary.

Nearby milk output is seasonally steady to higher across the country, with some parts noting the start of spring flush volumes. This has kept plenty of cheap milk available to processors in the short run despite March’s milk production report showing a YOY decline of 1%, marking the 9th consecutive month of lower YOY output. Spot loads remain at significant discounts to class, but not as massive as last year’s discounts. The market continues to closely monitor the HPAI outbreaks in dairy cows, and the impact to milk supplies, but without further reporting from dairy farmers it will be difficult to assess the true number of cases now that producers know how to handle sick animals. For now, there is still adequate milk availability heading into Spring Flush. Higher butterfat content in the milk has kept cheap cream coming to market, but expectations for better Class II and III demand in the coming weeks could start to tighten up availability.

The butter market is struggling to push higher as record highs for this time of year and strong churn rates have kept enough butter coming to market. The USDA’s updated cold storage report this week showed March butter stocks growing by another 19 million pounds from February (more than average) and now 2.3% higher YOY. However, after back to back years of record highs in the fall, end users remain fearful of not having enough contracted, prompting stronger nearby order interest and keeping the market supported near the recent highs. The most recent production data showed butter output up 2% from the prior year (after accounting for leap year) and reports throughout March would suggest another YOY increase next month. Nearby, the market is still noting extremely strong churn rates across the country and adequate to abundant cream availability as churns have been running essentially at capacity to take advantage. If supplies continue to build to even more comfortable levels the next few months then we may not need a retest of the highs from the last 2 years.

The cheese markets have pushed to new calendar year highs but are starting to run out of momentum as further buying interest dries up. Longer term, competitive export prices in the U.S. will limit downside opportunity, but upside risk will be more dependent on domestic demand improving from more mundane levels in 2023. The updated cold storage report showed that cheese stocks remain burdensome, but that March American style cheese was slightly lower than February and now 0.1% lower than 2023. The USDA reported cheese production for February was -0.6% YOY (after accounting for leap year), with Cheddar continuing to be the least desirable production for producers coming in 7.2% below last year’s levels. Higher prices of late and the seasonal upswing in American style output into the summer should reverse the lower output in recent months and help temper further upside given domestic offtake has been running well below prior year levels, especially at the foodservice level.

The shell egg market is under pressure from the seasonally weaker demand following the Easter holiday. Prices had held onto the higher values in recent weeks due to HPAI cases reported in the laying flock, but its clear now that slower demand is more than offsetting the loss of those birds. There have now been 4 laying flock outbreaks so far this month, impacting 8.4 million layers, and reports of another outbreak in Michigan this week. The ongoing risk to the laying flock population into the spring is limiting downside, but prices are still too lofty for this time of year. With seasonally slower demand into Q2, the availability of shell eggs has improved from historically tight levels, increasing 1.5% this past week. From a seasonal perspective, we are now at time of year when prices start to feel the pressure from warmer temps and the loss of holiday and baking season demand. Cage free inventories have seen impressive increases the past 3 weeks, rising to the highest levels on record. The need to build cage free production out West should keep cage free values trading at a premium to conventional, but at a much more sustainable level that the $2+ premium earlier this year.

Soybean oil values are chopping around their recent lows and have struggled to push much lower. NOPA reported their U.S. March domestic soybean crush estimate at a monthly record of 196.4 million bushels. End of March soybean oil stocks were put at 1.851 billion pounds, up from 1.690 billion in February and above the average trade estimate of 1.792 billion. Stocks are now exactly where they were last year at this time. Spring demand is off to a slower than expected start for both fuel and food while alternative feedstocks for renewable diesel remain cheap. The recent turn lower in the palm oil market has also contributed to the April drop in soybean oil prices.

The spot canola seed futures moved lower again last week, continuing to follow the lead of the soybean oil. The spot RBD canola oil basis offers were mostly steady last week as demand remains solid for Canadian canola oil for food and Bio production out West. Dry weather in western Australia is beginning to cause some crop concerns there while Canadian canola exports are currently over 30% lower this season vs. last.

Palm oil futures are sharply lower this past week and have now given up more than 50% of the large gains posted in Q1. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board estimated end of March palm oil stocks at 1.715 million metric tons, below the average trade estimate of 1.792 million and down from 1.920 million at the end of February. The number was still above the 1.673 million reported in March of 2023 and the highest for the month in four years. Palm continues to normalize after trading at a rare premium to SBO on the world market.

Mexico

• Volume is down as Mexico’s Caborca season wraps up, pushing markets higher
• Limited harvesting near the Baja peninsula will provide temporary supplies as crops move south
• Jumbo and large sizes will be snug over the next seven to ten days
• Markets are set to rise before dropping off with new crop supplies out of Central Mexico in late May

Other Regions

• Peruvian volume is available and helping to supplement industry supplies
• Domestic asparagus is available from California and the Pacific Northwest
• Michigan supplies are available

Markon First Crop (MFC) Broccoli and Markon Essentials (ESS) Cauliflower are readily available.

Broccoli

• California-grown quality is good; crown size, color, and texture is ideal
• Overall supplies are sufficient to meet demand; markets are steady at average levels
• Mexican-grown product is available for loading in South Texas at slightly higher FOB costs
  • Availability is down amid a harvesting gap this week as crops transition to fields at higher altitude
  • Product reviewed by Markon inspectors is exhibiting excellent quality due to dry, temperate weather

Cauliflower

• Supplies are increasing quickly in the West Coast growing regions of Salinas and Santa Maria
• Quality issues are minimal but include dark spotting and off-color heads
• After a recent price escalation, ideal growing conditions have increased available supplies and forced markets lower
• Expect prices to continue falling through next week, at minimum

Small California lemons (165- and 200-count sizes) continue to tighten; the crop is dominated by large sizes (95- through 140-count fruit). The California Navel orange season is projected to wrap up in late June. California Valencia orange production has started in a limited manner.

Lemons

• MFC and ESS Lemons are available  
• Districts One and Two (the San Joaquin Valley and Southern California) are currently in production
  • D1 has moved past its peak and is expected to finish in late April
  • D2 production is in full swing and producing a majority of the industry’s small-size fruit
• 165- and 200-count sizes are limited; size is dominated by 95- through 140-count lemons
• The offshore season is expected to start in early June
• Expect elevated markets and tight supplies

Oranges

Navel

• MFC and ESS Navel Oranges are available
• Stocks are currently being shipped out of Arizona and California
• Small sizes (113- through 138-count fruit) remain extremely limited in California
• Expect good quality and elevated prices

Valencia

• MFC and ESS Navel Oranges are available

• New crop supplies are dominated by large sizes (56- through 88-count fruit); small sizes (113- through 138-count fruit) will remain limited through the season
• Mexican Valencia supplies (crossing into Nogales, Arizona) will be shipped into June
• Expect elevated markets and tight supplies

The Chilean/Peruvian offshore season will wrap up in the next two weeks. Grape shipments will transition to Mexican-grown product in mid- to late May. Expect pricing to increase as the offshore season continues to wind down.

Offshore

• The Peruvian/Chilean green and red grape season will end in mid-May
• MFC Lunch Bunch Grapes will stop shipping in mid-May, but resume with Mexican product in late May
• Expect tight supplies and rising markets through this transition

Mexico

• MFC and ESS Grapes will be shipped out of Mexico in late May
• Commodity supplies of Mexican green and red grapes will enter the market in mid-May
• Mexican portioned grapes become available in late May
• Expect elevated pricing as the season begins, then markets will gradually decrease

Iceberg prices are lower; quality has improved, increasing supplies in the Salinas Valley. Green leaf and romaine markets are poised to ease next week as Mother’s Day demand subsides.

• MFC Premium Green Leaf, Iceberg, and Romaine are available; Markon Best Available (MBA) is being substituted as needed due to low weights
• Anthracnose, a fungal disease favored by cool, wet weather, is still present in some lots although the prevalence is decreasing
• Case weights are rising after several weeks of quality defects that required harvesting crews to trim more leaves in the field
• Light rain is forecast for the Salinas Valley this Saturday; growers will pack ahead to ensure orders are covered
• Markets will ease over the next two weeks

Demand is increasing; prices are up. MFC and ESS Limes are available.

Mexican supplies (crossing through South Texas) are sufficient; last week’s sporadic rains limited harvests in Veracruz, Mexico

• Quality is good; growers are reporting occasional scarring, oil spotting, and stylar during the grading process
  • Stocks are dominated by smaller 230- and 250-count sizes
  • 110- through 175-count sizes and choice grades remain limited
• Expect higher markets for next 7-10 days

Fresh-run onions are available in California and South Texas. Yellow and white varieties are meeting demand; red onions remain scarce but are expected to increase next week.

Mexico and Texas

• Texas-grown MFC Yellow and Red Onions are available
• Mexican yellow and white onions are also crossing into South Texas
• Overall quality is very good; occasional bruising, mechanical damage and excess skin are typical of fresh-run onions
• Yellow and white onion markets are steady; red onion prices are rising due to strong demand and tight stocks
• Fresh-run onions possess higher water content and lower acids, compared to storage onions, producing a sweeter flavor but shorter shelf-life

Southern California

• MFC Onions are available in the California desert region
• Yellow and white stocks are sufficient; red onions are extremely limited
• Yellow onion markets are inching up due to increasing demand
• White onion prices are steady
• Red onion markets are elevated
• Internal quality is very good with some excess skin and occasional sunscald affecting outer appearance

New Mexico and Northern California

• These seasons will begin in early June

Through mid-August, Idaho suppliers of MFC Potatoes will implement a six-week average for shipping large sizes.

Storage Crop

Idaho

• MFC Norkotah stocks are expected to be depleted by late June; MFC Burbanks will be the sole variety for the remainder of the season
• Supplies will run through mid- to late August
• 40- to 50-count supplies are tight, expect the market to strengthen
• Ample supply of (80-through 120- count) stocks

Quality

• Overall quality is good; air checks, pressure, and shoulder bruising will be seen sporadically in remaining storage supplies (both Norkotahs and Burbanks) from all growing regions
  • Air checks are tiny thumbnail like cracks that are caused by stress due to abrupt temperatures
  • Pressure and shoulder bruising (soft, external indents) results from constant contact with adjacent potatoes, or the floor, while raw product sits in storage piles

Chipping potato storage supplies are available. New crop harvesting has started in California.

Storage Crop

• Remaining supplies in Idaho are expected to be depleted by early June
• Stocks may exhibit sporadic quality concerns such as discoloration, thin skins, pressure and shoulder bruising, and mixed sizing

New Crop

• California production is light; volume is expected to ramp up mid-May
• Arizona’s production will start early July
• Idaho, Washington, New Mexico, and Canada will begin in early September

MFC Red and Yellow Potato supplies are tightening; the market is rising.

Idaho

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes will ship through July
• Six-week averages will be implemented to extend storage supplies
• Prices are rising; volume is low
• New crop stocks will become available in late August

North Dakota

• Storage crop MFC Red Potatoes will be available through mid-May
• New crop red and yellow potatoes are expected to ship the first week of August

California and Florida

• New crop production will be available through the end of June

Arizona & Texas

• Red and yellow potatoes will begin to ship in early July

Wisconsin

• New crop harvesting of MFC Wisconsin Potatoes will begin in early August

Clear, warm weather is forecast for the next 10 days in the Santa Maria/Oxnard growing region. Supplies are abundant due to favorable weather conditions.

Santa Maria/Oxnard, California

• MFC Strawberries are available
• Quality has improved with the weather
• Expect markets to remain low for another 7-10 days

Salinas/Watsonville, California

• Production has started in Salinas/Watsonville
• Weather conditions are improving
• Quality has been fair; issues such as pin rot, soft shoulders, and green tip have been reported
• Expect markets to remain low for another 7-10 days
• MFC Strawberries will be shipping by early- to mid-May